Privy Council upholds Methanex tax appeal

2025, 04/23

Methanol producer, Methanex, emerged victorious in its protracted legal battle over tax evasion on dividends of over TT$28 million it paid for 2007.

Five Law Lords of the United Kingdom-based Privy Council delivered a judgment upholding Methanex Trinidad (Titan) Unlimited’s final appeal against the TT Board of Inland Revenue (BIR) at the highest TT court. Lord David Richards, who wrote the judgment, said that the local Tax Appeal Board (TAB) and the Court of Appeal were wrong to have dismissed Methanex’s claim and associated appeal in 2019 and 2021, respectively.

The lawsuit related to four dividend payments, totalling US$85.4 million, it paid for income tax year 2007. Methanex paid the dividends to its immediate holding company incorporated in Barbados which in turn paid dividends to a holding company based in the Cayman Islands, which then paid dividends to the Canada-based Methanex Corporation, which is the largest methanol producer and supplier.

The BIR alleged that the transfers were “artificial and fictitious” as they were intended to make payments to the ultimate holding company in Canada while avoiding withholding tax in T&T. By virtue of a double taxation treaty made in 1995 among Caricom member states, dividends paid by a company resident in T&T to companies or persons resident in Barbados are not subject to withholding tax. BIR claimed that Methanex would have had to pay 5 per cent tax on the dividends, estimated at TT$28,382,495.79, if the payments were paid directly to its ultimate Canadian parent company.

In initially deciding the case, the TAB and appellate judges Allan Mendonca, Peter Rajkumar and Vasheist Kokaram considered that Methanex Canada had requested the dividends although it was not the direct parent company of Methanex Trinidad. They also noted that the dividends paid by the holding companies in Barbados and the Cayman Islands were the exact amounts initially paid by Methanex Trinidad. They also noted that the payments made by the holding companies were done using Canadian bank accounts that were controlled by Methanex Canada.

In deciding the case, Lord Richards ruled that the evidence before the TAB and the Appeal Court was incapable of supporting the conclusion that the dividends were fictitious.

“When Methanex Canada’s treasury department gave instructions for payments from the bank accounts of its subsidiaries, they must in the absence of evidence to the contrary be taken to have been doing so as agents on behalf of the subsidiary. It cannot be inferred from their status as employees of the parent company that the funds credited to the subsidiaries’ bank accounts were beneficially owned by Methanex Canada.“

Lord Richards also ruled that the dividends could not be characterised as artificial as such were typical for multinational conglomerates.

“Far from being abnormal, the payments of dividends up a corporate chain at the request of the ultimate holding company is a commercial commonplace in national and international groups, not least because it is the only lawful means by which distributable profits can be brought up from subsidiaries.”

However, Lord Richards found that the Court of Appeal correctly interpreted the Caricom treaty when it found that the Barbados holding company was liable to pay taxes in that country. He also rejected claims from the BIR that the treaty was only to benefit nationals of member states and not nationals of third-party states, who set up holding companies to obtain preferential tax treatment.

“There is no hint in the terms of the treaty or in its preamble that any such restriction was intended by the member states, still less is there any indication as to the details of any such restriction, such as the extent of any permitted foreign ownership, whether control would be equated with ownership, how preference shares and shareholder loans would be treated and so on.”

Methanex Trinidad was represented by Alnasir Maghji, Edward Rowe, Jonathan Walker, and Miguel Vasquez.
The BIR was represented by Dr Claude Denbow, SC, Dharmendra Punwasee and Jerome Rajcoomar.

 

 

 

Chevron must return Venezuelan oil before sanctions deadline

Bloomberg News, April 11, 2025

Chevron Corp. was ordered to return nearly 1 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to Petroleos de Venezuela SA in a blow to the oil major. Chevron was working to secure crude before wrapping up operations when a U.S. sanctions deadline hits in May. Venezuela’s state producer PDVSA ordered Chevron to return the ships Carina Voyager and Dubai Attraction, currently offshore, to port and discharge their load.

“Chevron has returned crude oil shipments to PDVSA given the impossibility and restrictions imposed on it to pay for them to Venezuela,” Venezuela Vice President Delcy Rodriguez said, adding that the crude would be sold in international markets. All remaining cargoes that Chevron had scheduled to load this month, a combined 5 million barrels of crude oil, were cancelled.

The move follows the U.S. return to a “maximum pressure” strategy. The Trump administration has been sharply critical of the regime of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Houston-based Chevron was ordered by the U.S. to halt its operation in Venezuela by May 27.

The Carina Voyager is loaded with half a million barrels of flagship Merey 16 oil and the Dubai Attraction holds 350,000 barrels of Boscan oil, a heavy crude used to make asphalt. The first loaded at the PDVSA terminal of Jose in Anzoategui state, the other in Bajo Grande in the state of Zulia. The surprise move of the Venezuelan government seemed to take Chevron off guard as the major had sent four other empty ships that were scheduled to load in coming days.

 

 

 

Texas Ground Zero for US Battery Boom

10 Apr 2025

 

“Drill, baby, drill” may be Texas’s unofficial motto, but “store, baby, store” is becoming more accurate. The Lone Star State, heart of America’s oil and gas map, is quickly becoming the biggest installer of a technology key for renewables development: battery storage.

However, it remains to be seen if it can keep up the pace as tariffs rise to 145% on China, the biggest source of batteries imported to the US. Last year, 4 gigawatts of battery capacity — enough to power around 3 million homes — switched on in the state, besting the pace of similar projects in California for the first time.

Before President Donald Trump imposed such high tariffs on China, Texas was set to add more than double the state’s total storage capacity in 2025, according to federal energy data. The added tariffs will impact projects, either increasing costs or forcing developers to pause installations or seek new energy storage sources.

Big batteries address some of the biggest issues facing the electric grid that now has the most renewable capacity in the nation. On the supply side, they can hold the glut of wind and solar power generated across the state. On the demand side, they help meet the surging needs of new residents and a growing number of electric vehicles and server stacks in data centers.

Randolph Mann, chief executive officer of esVolta LP, a battery startup that expects to flip the switch on at three new plants in Texas by July, said,

“What we’ve done over the past couple years is really build a new industry that has proven it can execute at scale. We’re doing it in a way that’s environmentally beneficial and we’re able to execute that pretty quickly.”

Consider the state’s energy picture in the past seven days, an average week of mellow spring weather in the Lone Star State. When demand peaked around 5 p.m. local time, almost half of Texas’s electricity came from solar and wind.

As the sun set, the big batteries started discharging the electrons they stored during the day when the wholesale price of electricity hovered near zero. Storage served more than 7% of the state’s electricity demand for 25 hours of the week, typically around 7 p.m., when Texans were watching TV, doing laundry and plugging in cars for the night. Though natural gas remains the state’s primary source of electricity, batteries are steadily tamping down the demand peaks that call for fossil fuel turbines to spark to life.

Batteries can forestall energy disasters such as blackouts, something the state is no stranger to in recent years. During a series of heat waves last summer, the extra storage saved consumers from “some pretty bad situations,” according to Woody Rickerson, chief operating officer at the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the state’s grid.

Batteries are still catching up to renewable energy in Texas which has about 64 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity, but only about 7.4 gigawatts of storage. While California and other states are actively cultivating battery storage with subsidies and deployment goals, the infrastructure boom in Texas is largely a result of the free market, according to BloombergNEF.

“The driver is actually the project economics. Some of the utilities actually use energy storage to replace fossil fuel assets” and batteries make it so “you can just make money.”

The cost of building battery plants fell by nearly half since 2017, according to BNEF. Recently implemented tariffs on China are going to have a strong negative impact on the battery industry, though. Without tariffs, BNEF estimated that the cost of industrial storage was set to fall 13% to $204 per kilowatt-hour this year. A BNEF analysis prior to the White House tariff memo found that a turnkey system would now cost $322 per kilowatt-hour. This will discourage new investment in battery storage projects in the US.

While Trump said some nations including Vietnam are keen to negotiate over tariffs as they’re on pause for 90 days, China moved to retaliate and Trump escalated. The differing reactions and uncertainty are set to be a drag on the industry where over two-thirds of imported batteries come from China.

Texas’s battery boom could be throttled by other policy decisions. Battery companies and the utilities that increasingly rely on them are worried Congress will cancel a 30% federal tax credit for solar and storage projects as part of his pledge to scrap climate-focused subsidies. Former President Joe Biden signed a law to incentivize battery makers to set up shop in the US, but it will take years to ramp up production facilities. (That incentive may also be in danger of getting removed or watered down.)

Texas lawmakers are weighing a plan to require half of new power capacity to come from sources other than battery storage, a policy shift that would prop up the natural gas industry.

esVolta’s Mann said, “We need to have pretty good clarity of what our capital costs are and have clarity over time because we’re building assets that take five-plus years to develop. I get that there’s some uncertainty, but having volatility from tariffs on a day-to-day, week-to-week, month-to-month basis is pretty rough.”

author Kyle Stock kstock6@bloomberg.net

 

 

 

Guyana chides PRC on Venezuela’s violations

Apr 18, 2025

The Government of Guyana has rebuked China for its continued silence on Venezuela’s provocative actions amid the ongoing border controversy and Caracas’ intention to conduct elections in Essequibo.

Guyana’s Foreign Ministry said it has “taken note that there has been no comment from the Government of the People’s Republic of China on Venezuela’s plan to hold elections on May 25, 2025, in what it has declared the “Guayana Esequiba State” which is the name Venezuela has given to Guyana’s Essequibo region.”

The ministry noted that this move by Venezuela is a clear violation of Guyana’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This sharp censure follows remarks made by China’s Deputy Chief of Mission to Guyana, Huang Rui, during an embassy press conference in Georgetown where he initially suggested the long-standing border controversy between Guyana and Venezuela could be resolved through “friendly consultations and negotiations.” Although Rui later retracted the comment, Guyana emphasized that such suggestions are unacceptable, as the matter is already before the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

“The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation rejects the statement made on April 16, 2025 by the Charge d’Affaires of the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China that Guyana and Venezuela can solve the border issue through friendly consultations and negotiations.”

Reiterating Guyana’s longstanding position, the ministry noted that the issue is being adjudicated by the ICJ in accordance with the 1966 Geneva Agreement.

“Guyana will not engage in discussion of any matter that has been brought before the Court. To do so would be to undermine the jurisdiction and authority of the International Court of Justice.”

Notably, Rui has stated that China will not interfere in the Guyana and Venezuela border controversy. He said China maintains a strict policy of non-interference in other countries’ internal affairs.

“If you actually follow the Chinese foreign policies, all those policies, as long as possible, you will see, first of all, we never intervene in internal affairs of any nation. The second principle is we always respect [other countries] sovereignty and territory, that’s all.”

Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo told media, given that Guyana’s national position has always been that the matter will be resolved by the ICJ, for China’s Deputy Chief of Mission to suggest going back to bilateral talks

“is improper now to place, and that is what this statement mentioned, because it’s not respectful of our national position.”

Rui’s remarks came amid heightened tensions between Guyana and Venezuela over the long-standing border controversy regarding the resource-rich Essequibo region, which spans over two-thirds of Guyana’s landmass.

The Guyana-Venezuela border controversy is currently before the International Court of Justice. Despite a December 2023 agreement between President Ali and Venezuelan President Maduro committing to regional peace, on March 1, 2025, a Venezuelan naval vessel entered Guyana’s waters and approached Exxon’s Prosperity Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel operating in the oil-rich Stabroek Block and radioed that the FPSO was operating in disputed territory.

The Stabroek Block is operated by American oil major ExxonMobil, which holds 45 per cent interest, Hess with 30 per cent, and state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), with a 25 per cent stake. Rui’s remarks were in response to questions about whether CNOOC’s offshore presence signalled broader Chinese involvement, particularly in the face of Venezuela’s aggression.

The Government of Guyana has insisted on the ICJ’s role in providing a conclusive judgment on the matter, noting that it has no intention of having direct dialogue with the Nicolas Maduro regime regarding the border controversy.

 

 

 

 

Economic future and national security of Guyana is with USA

Stabroek News April 23, 2025  –  Vishnu Bisram

Thank you for a superbly written editorial, `Remarks of Charge d’ Affaires of the Chinese Embassy’, assailing the representative and by extension the government of China for its uncalled for advice on the border controversy between Guyana and Venezuela. It is a very bold, no holds barred editorial, much stronger in its condemnation of China than the official response from our government. Strong patriotism and nationalism are on display!

China is a major beneficiary of trade, investment, contracts and duty free imports, among other benefits in Guyana. Foreign Chinese businesses in Guyana have been accused of violating tax laws and import duties, unfair competition against Guyanese and American owned businesses.

China received from Guyana, far more than what USA received. Yet China adopted a position on the border indirectly, if not directly, supportive of Venezuela. The Chinese have shown their hand. The Guyana government should not depend on China to side with us or to advance our national security interests.

Although the USA has been a net donor to Guyana while China has been a net receiver of Guyanese goodwill, the USA is a reliable supporter. Guyana’s economic future and national security lie with USA, and that is why a group of Guyanese in USA is wisely championing some kind of alliance (even associated status for Guyana) or a defence treaty between the two countries.

The controversy is before the World Court for a final resolution Venezuela and Guyana accepted the recommendation of the UN Secretary General who proposed referring the controversy to the ICJ for a resolution. Both sides submitted arguments to the court. A ruling is awaited.

It is unacceptable now for any government to suggest a resolution outside the ICJ. President Ali repeatedly stated that there will be no direct negotiation or mediation while the matter is before the court. It is sub-judice. There should be no remarks about resolution from any government.

The Chinese government knows Guyana’s position on the controversy and should have refrained from commenting on it and even suggesting direct negotiations for a resolution. China, which has the largest amount of state contracts and duty free imports from our government and granted privileges no other government or foreign or local company gets, has not supported Guyana on the border.

The least it can do is maintain neutrality as Russia and Middle Eastern Islamic countries are doing. Unlike other major powers, USA is siding with Guyana and indirectly pledged to come to Guyana’s assistance should Venezuela attack Guyana or hurt American interests. As Secretary Rubio responded to a question on the expected American response to any attack from Venezuela, Maduro won’t like the consequences , hinting at military action.

The USA is a reliable partner although succeeding governments, not the public, from the 1950s until a few years ago adopted an anti-American and pro-China attitude. Guyanese are fascinated with and attracted to the USA with almost everyone wanting to visit America if not migrate permanently there.

Clearly, China, the darling of the left in Guyana, is not going to side with or defend Guyana’s interests. Since the 1950s, the main political parties and governments in Guyana have been romanticized with the communist Soviet bloc and China. Those who appealed to politicians during the 1970s- 1990s to ally with USA against the communists were condemned as ‘agents of the blood sucking imperialist Americans’.

Today, those who vilified us and USA are seeking American assistance to protect Guyana as the left governments that our government thought were allies have not spoken in our favour on the border. Countries allied with USA are supporting Guyana. And even though China has been accorded preferential treatment in investment, contracts, obtaining foreign currency, and duty free imports over Americans and local Guyanese, the Chinese government has not championed Guyana position on the border or chided China for its ongoing threats against Guyana.

Our government should call in the Charge’ and reprimand him, and we should begin to loosen ties with China, reduce if not end preferential treatment on state contracts, end duty free imports for Chinese businesses, and suspend their tax waivers and other privileges. Guyanese businesses should have an equal playing field with the Chinese.

Our government should look to USA for a strengthening of ties and protection against Venezuelan aggression.

 

 

 

Among European Supermajors: Shell Reigns Supreme

Apr. 11, 2025

Walking a tightrope between Venezuela and Trinidad, Shell plc is the best risk-adjusted play among European supermajors due to its strong balance sheet, high credit quality, and natural gas-focused production mix.

Shell and Equinor have the best credit ratings (Aa2) and lowest gearing, providing a cushion during market volatility. Shell’s earnings sensitivity is lower than peers, thanks to its strategic pivot to natural gas, making it more resilient in fluctuating markets. Shell’s disciplined capital returns strategy, including stable buybacks, ensures shareholder returns even in a challenging environment. Shell is the way to get exposure.

Companies don’t just produce energy: they pipe it, market it, refine it, own petrochemicals assets and renewables businesses. At a high level, Shell looks to have the least downside to its overall earnings profile. Shell is now primarily a natural gas player—not crude. It made a strategic pivot away from producing liquids, cemented when it acquired BG Group several years ago; 2025 production is more than 85.0% targeted towards natural gas.

Most of the other companies have relatively even production splits on a barrel of energy (boe) basis, and that means that as global natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices have held relatively firm as crude oil has fallen.

Oil production is the hardest-hit business right now, then refining. Midstream, marketing, and renewables businesses largely look stable year over year. This means that the more diverse the supermajor’s business, the less downside they look to have. While the renewables businesses of European majors got a lot of heat lately from both investors and the Boards of these companies as they pivot back to fossil fuels because of returns, they are stable. That doesn’t mean they are great assets—but the expectations for earnings generated from them look largely similar to the prior year..

Low debt and better earnings are a recipe for one thing: money back to investor pockets in one form or another. Every European supermajor has a different policy on shareholder returns. In the case of Shell, that is 40.0–50.0% of cash flow from operations; BP is 30.0–40.0% of cash flow from operations.

In a sector where volatility is the norm and macro risks abound, Shell stands out as the most resilient and strategically well-positioned among European supermajors. Its strong balance sheet, high credit quality, natural gas-focused production mix and disciplined capital returns strategy make it the best risk-adjusted way to stay long energy in 2025.

While the broader group will weather this storm and continue to deliver positive free cash flow, Shell’s lower earnings sensitivity and buyback stability set it apart. In a market that punishes weakness indiscriminately, owning strength matters—Shell has it.

Hopefully, the Dragon Gas deal will survive the sanctions regime to rescue the Trinidad industry, as a new centrist government settles in the Parliament of Trinidad and Tobago.

 

 

 

 

US axes Shell and BP licences for cross-border gas fields

April 9, 2025, by Melisa Cavcic

The U.S. government’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has changed its mind about two special licenses – operated by the UK-headquartered Shell and BP, respectively – for gas fields straddling the maritime boundary between Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago. This is part of America’s zest for tightening its grip on Venezuela’s government, putting an end to dreams of processing Venezuelan gas in Trinidad and Tobago.

Venezuela has been on the United States’ sanctions list for years, and OFAC’s move to revoke the previously granted licences to Trinidad and Tobago for the development of the Dragon and Cocuina gas fields comes a month after Chevron was given a 30-day deadline to bring a wind-down of its crude oil production and exports in the South American country to an end.

Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela signed the agreement for the joint exploitation of gas in the territorial waters shared by the countries, as well as to work together on the Dragon field, on September 21, 2023. Thanks to OFAC licences, BP and Shell were given the green light to proceed with the development of gas projects to ensure energy security in the region.

The Dragon field in Venezuelan waters near the maritime border with Trinidad is said to hold up to 4.2 trillion cubic feet of gas, which was planned to be exported to Shell’s Hibiscus platform offshore Trinidad and Tobago. To enable this, a geophysical and geotechnical survey was on the agenda in October 2024 as part of preliminary works on the project, only ten months after the TT won a 30-year licence to explore, produce, and export gas from the Venezuelan field.

The second licence for energy projects between Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago, issued by the United States, was for BP and Trinidad and Tobago’s National Gas Company (NGC). The two-year licence was obtained from OFAC in June last year to explore and develop the cross-border Manakin-Coquina gas field, estimated to contain around 1 trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas reserves.

Stuart Young, former Trinidad and Tobago Minister of Energy , who was optimistic about the opportunities for cross-border gas with Venezuela, confirmed that the U.S. gave the country a wind-down period until May 27, 2025.

“This does not come necessarily as a surprise, seeing how volatile things are, not only with respect to the policy with Venezuela, but with the application of tariffs.”

In response to the news that two OFAC special licences for the gas fields have been revoked by the U.S. government, the Energy Chamber of Trinidad & Tobago described the development as disappointing but not unexpected, given the previous cancellation of other general and special licences for companies working in Venezuela.

“The importation of pipeline gas from Venezuela for processing and onward sales to international markets as either LNG or petrochemicals, remains a significant economic opportunity for Trinidad & Tobago. It is important that the government of Trinidad & Tobago continues to engage actively with both the United States and Venezuela to find a mechanism to pursue this opportunity.

“At the same time, there are significant opportunities to develop natural gas fields within Trinidad & Tobago’s exclusive economic zone and these must also be pursued actively and urgently. There are a number of fields, including Mento, Coconut, Ginger and Manatee, that are currently being developed and others, including Calypso, Blackjack and Onyx where companies are working towards taking a final investment decision.”

The Energy Chamber is adamant that all of these opportunities should be pursued to help maintain and increase the upstream gas production. BP recently brought online a gas project offshore Trinidad and made a final investment decision (FID) for another development.

 

 

 

Colombia: Arrow Energy update on Llanos Basin

10 Apr 2025

Arrow Exploration, the high-growth operator with a portfolio of assets across key Colombian hydrocarbon basins, has provided an update on recent operational activity on the Tapir Block in the Llanos Basin where Arrow holds a 50 percent beneficial interest.

Highlights

1. 1. 1. Production over 4,500 boe/d.
      2. 2 horizontal wells drilled since last update.
      3. CN HZ10 producing 1,183 BOPD gross (591 BOPD net).
      4. CN HZ9 on production. Excellent reservoir sands, but sub-optimal location.
      5. Increase in cash position since February 5th update to over US$25 million, while drilling two horizontal wells in the period.
      6. Production growth expected in Q2 with drilling underway at CN11
      7. Strong balance sheet, no debt or drilling commitments. Arrow has flexibility in its work program and is able to take advantage of any economic downturn with possible acquisition opportunities.

Production

1. 1. 1. Total corporate production is currently over 4,500 boe/d net. Arrow’s original 6 horizontal wells at Carrizales Norte have flattened at profiles in-line with reservoir models, from initial high production declines.
      2. Significant additional production is expected to be added prior to the end of the second quarter with planned development wells in the C7 and Ubaque reservoirs. In light of the recent movements in oil prices and current market volatility, Arrow has the ability to prioritize drilling low risk infill and development wells until market conditions stabilize. Arrow has a significant portfolio of low-risk drilling locations which it plans on utilizing, as necessary, to maintain a cost and risk effective production rate and associated cash flows.

Cash Balance

On April 1, 2025, the Company had a cash balance of US$25.1 million and held no debt. Further, the Company has no long-term rig contracts or obligations to drill wells. Corporate operating netbacks[1] at a US$65/bbl Brent oil price are US$39/bbl. This strong netback underlies the material value embedded in the Llanos Basin Tapir Block. The combination of cash on the balance sheet and robust operating cashflow are key corporate strengths in this volatile market.

Drilling Operations – Tapir Block

Carrizales Norte field

On the Carrizales Norte field, the Company has recently drilled two production wells from the CN pad.

The Carizales Norte HZ9 (CN HZ9) horizontal well was spud on February 8, 2025, and reached target depth on February 24, 2025. CN HZ9 is the first well drilled into the southern area of the Carrizales Norte field. The well was drilled to a total measured depth of 11,506 MD feet (8,419 feet true vertical depth) and encountered multiple hydrocarbon-bearing intervals. The well was completed with a slotted liner.

On March 3, Arrow put the CN HZ9 well on production in the Ubaque formation which has approximately 1,100 feet of oil charged sandstone. The well encountered an initial high water cut which is believed to be water coning from the proximal vertical CN4 well which has been converted to a water injector after early water breakthrough occurred. CN HZ9 is producing at a stabilized rate of 244 BOPD gross (122 BOPD net) with a water cut of 90%. Arrow has the ability to increase pump speed and total fluid production, while pursuing a balance of water production and disposal capacity. Arrow is also pursuing alternatives to close off perforations in CN HZ9 proximal to the expected water cone to improve well performance.

The reservoir and oil charged sands at Carizales Norte remain excellent and management believes the reservoir still has tremendous potential. The sub-optimal location of the heel of the well in CN HZ9 is believed to be the reason for the high water cut experienced.

The CN HZ10 horizontal well was spud on March 5, 2025, and reached target depth on March 23, 2025. CN HZ10 is the first well drilled into the northern area of the Carrizales Norte field. The well was drilled to a total measured depth of 12,911 MD feet (8,510 feet true vertical depth) and encountered multiple hydrocarbon-bearing intervals. The well was completed with Autonomous Inflow Control Valve (“AICV”) technology.

On March 31, 2025, Arrow put the CN HZ10 well on production in the Ubaque formation which has approximately 1,380 feet of oil charged sandstone. The well continues to clean up with the water cut declining and oil production increasing. Currently the well is producing at 1,183 BOPD gross (591 BOPD net) with a decreasing water cut of 21%. Additional pump speed increases are contemplated as a measured and slow ramp up in production is executed.

Arrow is currently drilling the CN11 well, a directional low risk infill well targeting the C7 formation. The well is expected to take two weeks to be completed and then immediately put on production. Multiple C7 wells are contemplated in the overall C7 reservoir plan at the Carrizales Norte pad.

Alberta Llanos field

Following increased water cut in the Ubaque reservoir, Arrow has successfully re-completed the AB-1 well in the Guadalupe zone which resulted in initial production rates of 400 BOPD gross (200 BOPD net). The Guadalupe reservoir is producing 31 API oil. The success of the AB-1 recompletion highlights the potential for further Guadalupe development.

Following the completion of a review of the available alternatives, the AB-2 well is to be recompleted into a water disposal well in order to help with the horizontal development in the Alberta Llanos field.

AB-3 is on production and producing from the Ubaque sands. The well is producing at 160 BOPD gross (80 BOPD net). Well performance reaffirms the horizontal well development potential.

Drilling Schedule

In light of the current economic conditions and oil price volatility, Arrow is continuously reviewing the original Board-approved $50MM budget and drilling schedule. At this time, Arrow does not have any contractual commitments to employ additional rigs or to drill additional wells beyond the current CN11.

Arrow’s strong balance sheet allows the Company to remain flexible in a volatile oil price environment and the Company will make further announcements should modifications to its capital program be determined.

East Tapir 3-D Seismic Program

The East Tapir 3D seismic acquisition program has been completed ahead of schedule and under budget. Processing and interpretation will be completed in the next 30 days. The value added by the initial detailed 100 sq. km 3-D seismic survey shot on the northern part of the Tapir Block in 2023 has been integral in the Company’s development. The current East Tapir 3-D survey covers a further 100 sq. km where existing leads on the 2-D dataset will be defined in more detail. This represents another potential value step change for the Company.

2024 year end results

Arrow expects to announce the financial results for the year ended 31 December 2024 at the end of April 2025.

Marshall Abbott, CEO of Arrow commented:

‘Arrow will protect its strong balance sheet during this period of market and commodity price volatility. Arrow has a low-risk portfolio of drilling locations to maintain production with limited capital spend and is able to maintain high netbacks to remain cash generative through weaker crude pricing.”

‘The CN HZ10 well is continuing to clean up and is producing as modeling expected. The performance of the well indicates that the use of AICV technology was the best completion method which gives us confidence for future well completion in the area.”

‘The East Tapir 3-D seismic program has been completed ahead of schedule and under budget and we hope to develop additional prospects with the same level of success as resulted from our earlier 3-D seismic program northern part of the Tapir Block.”

‘The initial six horizontal wells in the Carrizales Norte field have stabilized to lower declines and have now paid out or are in the process of paying out. Arrow expects to add significant production this year through further Ubaque horizontal wells. In addition, we are evaluating the potential for drilling horizontal wells targeting the large C7 Carbonera zone that resides in the Carizales Norte complex.”

‘The original US$ 50 million Board approved budget that includes drilling 23 wells in 2025 is continuously reviewed and scenarios are being considered in light of the current economic conditions and the corresponding volatility in oil prices. Arrow remains flexible with a strong balance sheet and drilling inventory. Additionally, Arrow’s strong balance sheet may allow the Company to take advantage of financially distressed assets and Arrow continues to evaluate acquisition opportunities. We will provide further guidance regarding any modifications to our capital program as the economic and oil price environment stabilizes.”

‘We appreciate the support of our longstanding shareholder base as well as the dedication of our talented staff.’

Source: Arrow Exploration

 

 

 

 

Oil Price Daily Digest

Oil Futures Continue Slide

by Bloomberg Alex Longley, Mia Gindis | , April 7, 2025

Oil tumbled to a four-year low as markets remained on edge about the next steps for President Donald Trump’s global tariff plans.

West Texas Intermediate futures swung in a roughly $5 range before settling near $61 a barrel. Futures had briefly surged earlier on speculation about a pause in some tariffs, which the White House later denied. WTI has slid about 16% in the past three sessions.

Crude has plunged as Trump’s tariffs imperil global energy demand and a surprise output hike from Saudi-led OPEC+ raises the prospect of swelling supplies. Trump signaled on Monday that he’s willing to press his trade war even further, threatening an additional 50% tariff on major oil importer China.

The levies “came in above even the most hawkish of expectations, driving markets, notably growth-sensitive commodities, to more meaningfully price in a US and possibly global recession,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts including Tracey Allen and Natasha Kaneva said in a note to clients.

The pullback is threatening the coffers of oil-producing nations that need far higher prices to meet their budgets. Over the weekend, Saudi Arabia slashed the price of its key Arab Light crude to Asia — the top market — by the most since 2022.

At the same time, crude’s drop may take some of the sting out of inflationary pressures from Trump’s tariffs on trade partners, which are leading some market participants to boost expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Industries from trucking to airlines are likely to benefit from lower fuel costs, and Trump heralded the decline in oil prices on his Truth Social platform on Monday.

Along with the moves in headline crude prices, there have been shifts across other parts of the oil market.

WTI prices for next year are now trading close to $58 a barrel and shale-oil company shares are down more than 15% since Trump announced his tariff policies. A survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve last month said average prices need to be $65 to profitably drill new wells.

There was also record trading of bearish put options on Brent futures on Friday, another sign that traders are bracing for further declines. Options profiting from price drops are at their biggest premium to those betting on a rally since late 2023.

Banks are turning more gloomy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its forecasts for the second time in less than a week, while Morgan Stanley reduced its estimates, hot on the heels of other banks last week.

“Such sharp declines are rare,” Morgan Stanley analysts including Martijn Rats and Charlotte Firkins wrote, noting that, in percentage terms, Brent has only fallen this much over two days 24 times since the 1980s. “Of those, 22 are associated with recession.”

Oil Prices:
WTI for May delivery shed 2.1% to settle at $60.70 a barrel in New York.
Brent for June settlement fell 2.1% to $64.21 a barrel.

https://www.hartenergy.com/exclusives/golden-age-natgas-comes-focus-energy-market-landscape-shifts-212463?utm_source=ogi-this-week&utm_medium=email&utm_content=feature-image&mkt_tok=NDMzLU9ESy04ODkAAAGZsGTsxNt-d99bBN7O6ovYpFSeUVX0GNtPbC18EngK0IuT2r0HJXX2t7AOn5AKoxyoBKS_0WAsqB-Nbm30vAzoSl8UVb0wIUaUPjaMATVuErZN

Natural gas demand rises once more, leading to a new ‘golden age’ for the commodity, and tariffs rock the energy sector and increase volatility for crude prices.

 

 

NGC chairman-Venezuela gas still on track for 2028

1 Apr 2025

Current forecasts still support a 2028 start-up for first gas from Venezuela, chairman of the National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Dr Joseph Ishmael Khan said, as subsidiary T&T NGL Ltd, published its financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2024.

“The geopolitical landscape introduced new complexities in early 2025, following the US government’s policy position towards Venezuela. The board continues to monitor the situation closely. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) licences that allow gas collaboration between the Governments of Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela remain active.”

In response to these “geopolitical uncertainties”, TTNGL and its parent NGC are maintaining active dialogue with regulators and international stakeholders, building flexibility into gas supply models and stress-testing project timelines and financial projections.

“Current forecasts still support a 2028 start-up for first gas from Venezuela, with these volumes expected to contribute to approximately 38% of total gas supply to Phoenix Park Gas Processors Ltd through to 2042.

“Nonetheless, we remain prepared to revise forecasts and strategies as more clarity emerges and new prospects arise from current upstream development in Trinidad and Tobago.”

TTNGL Ltd made a total comprehensive loss of $114 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, improving on the $551.4 million loss it recorded the previous year.

“TTNGL recorded a net loss after tax of $119.4 million, a notable improvement from the $547.7 million loss in 2023. This result includes an unrealised impairment of $184.3 million (2023: $573.6 million), derived from TTNGL’s 2024 impairment assessment.”

The impairment reflects prudent risk management and is based on a conservative outlook incorporating lower long-term gas supply volumes, reduced NGL content in the forecast gas stream, and lower anticipated NGL prices over the medium term. TTNGL continues to apply a “disciplined and transparent” valuation methodology in the form of the Fair Value Less Costs of Disposal (FVLCD) model.

“Importantly, this model excludes several potential upstream gas projects that, while not yet sanctioned, are actively progressing. This approach ensures that impairment charges remain prudent and reversible, should key assumptions improve in the future—particularly in areas such as gas supply reliability, feedstock quality and asset life extensions.”

TTNGL’s share of profit from its investment in PPGPL rose to $66.6 million in 2024 from $28.1 million in 2023, an increase of 137%.

“This reflects a solid growth in PPGPL’s performance and supports the company’s broader efforts to stabilise earnings and long-term shareholder value.”

PPGPL delivered a profit after tax of US$25.3 million (2023: US$10.7 million) driven by improved operational metrics.

Key contributors to this performance included:

1. 1. 1. • an increase in gas volumes to Pt Lisas for processing (1,052 mmscfd in 2024 vs 1,008 mmscfd in 2023)
      2. • higher uptime efficiency
      3. • 10% improvement in NGL content in the gas stream
      4. • continued cost rationalisation
      5. • a 10% increase in Mont Belvieu product prices, driven by global demand shifts, weather disruptions and US logistical constraints.

“The North American trading subsidiary achieved a 21% increase in volumes. While margins were compressed, the business is being deliberately positioned for long-term commercial resilience. Strategic initiatives underway include optimising supply chains, refining pricing structures, and enhancing inventory and credit risk controls to improve returns as trading expands.”

Excluding the impact of impairment, earnings per share improved to $0.42 (2023: $0.17).

“Cash by cash equivalents stood at $165.6 million (2023: $127.2.million) supported by dividends of $39.4 million from PPGPL (2023: $23.7 million). This liquidity position underpins our ongoing ability to meet obligations and support strategic investments.”

TTNGL’s ability to declare and pay dividends still remains restricted.

“However, considerable work has been undertaken to identify sustainable solutions. The board has narrowed its options and will communicate its proposed approach in 2025, subject to necessary stakeholder and regulatory approvals. These efforts form part of a broader focus on capital discipline and prudent financial management.

“PPGPL continues to pursue its strategic objectives with discipline and agility. The focus remains on strengthening core operations expanding commercial reach and diversifying revenue streams. These actions are integral to the risk mitigation framework being employed across the NGC Group which prioritises operational reliability, strategic geographic diversification, active market intelligence, and sustainable investment in core infrastructure.”

Khan said the board remains “firmly aligned” with these priorities and continues to work closely with management to navigate in a dynamic operating environment.

“We are committed to preserving financial resilience, improving transparency, and positioning TTNGL for long-term growth.”

Former Prime Minister Stuart Young said when he met United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Jamaica, he went into “granular detail” on the importance to Trinidad and Tobago and the region of the Dragon gas deal with Venezuela and what it entailed.

“Exactly how this transaction would be structured; the work that we have already done, along with Shell, to make it a reality; and the effects that it will have, in particular, on the rest of the region. I was able to set out how it would also affect the rest of the Caricom region because of the important role that we play in supporting some of our Caricom brothers and sister nations…. That was accepted.

“Secretary of State Rubio did indicate that he was pleased to receive this information…and he said that US foreign policy is in no way meant to affect or harm Trinidad and Tobago, in particular, with what we are doing for energy security. And there was a recognition that Trinidad and Tobago’s role in energy security is not limited to our domestic situation.

“He explained to me the US policy that they’re applying. I understood the US policy, and we agreed that there is a lot of room in there for Trinidad and Tobago to achieve what is needed domestically—the Dragon gas deal—as well as the role that we play throughout the region that they will give us support on and the achievement of the policy. I made it very clear that Venezuela is our closest neighbour and we have a relationship with Venezuela that can be beneficial for the region and the Western Hemisphere because there’s a lot of built-up respect.”

Asked whether T&T was seeking to get an exemption from any sanctions imposed on Venezuela, Young said that was part of the conversation with Rubio. He said Rubio recognised that the OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) licence given to T&T by the US is in place until October. “There is a lot of discretion in there…which is invaluable to Trinidad and Tobago.”

He said this country had built up credibility in Washington over the last few years, which counted for a lot.

“ Secretary of State Rubio was very clear that he appreciated the opportunity to hear from us first-hand and from the Prime Minister first hand on that (energy) and the effects it would have, and he kept emphasising, ‘We are not going to harm Trinidad and Tobago’.”

“I did raise the point that our OFAC licence for Dragon is (ending) in October. Secretary of State Rubio said: , Prime Minister, that is some time off from now. We are going to continue to work with you. Nobody is going to give that blanket commitment at this stage. But I emphasise, he said: ‘I am not going to harm Trinidad and Tobago’ after hearing how important it was for us.”

 

 

 

Rubio’s consequential Caricom visit

Mar 29, 2025
Jay Rakhar -New York

I don’t think Marco Rubio’s meeting with Caricom heads of government was to greet them. I think he wanted to make it clear that after his warnings, persuasions and encouragement, there could be consequences. Rubio believes that the Caricom states either have no clue or simply choose to deny that Cuban doctors’ salaries are apportioned with the Cuban government (in the Cuban global medical ­programme).

I don’t think it’s the employment that causes discomfort to the US, but how the money paid to doctors gets trickled down to the Cuban regime. After what happened to his parents, Rubio just can’t sit by and watch those in power continue to suppress and keep the people in abject poverty after the fall of Fulgencio Batista and the rise of Fidel Castro in Cuba 1959. Rubio personally feels the pain and suffering of his parents who fled to the US in 1956, two years before the Cuban Revolution of Fidel Castro took control of the island in 1959.

It all boils down to the unjust means of the Cuban government’s exploitation of its doctors and nurses who are being used to provide economic strength to maintain the oligarchy of the Cuban regime while receiving stipends for their labours.

Marco Rubio and US President Donald Trump are on the same page. Maduro would be removed because he is not considered the legitimate president of ­Venezuela. Rubio has encouraged many Caricom members to stay clear of Venezuela also. The warning is stern, and no one should take him lightly.

We are a sovereign nation. Both Dr Rowley and newly elected Prime Minister Stuart Young had a propensity to cozy up with President ­Maduro and (Vice-President of ­Venezuela) Delcy Rodriguez—they have established a strong relationship—but the results could be devastating to the people of Trinidad and Tobago if they refuse to comply. And it is a fact that we need US dollars for trade and purchasing power. So it is in our best interest to play our cards right, otherwise our people would have to pay the price—not Dr Rowley or Prime Minister Young, but the people would suffer.

 

Diplomacy

31 mar

Prime Minister Stuart Young put the best spin on his meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Jamaica. Young’s take and Mr Rubio’s, however reveal different priorities.

The Prime Minister focused on energy security, saying that Rubio had assured him that “US foreign policy is in no way meant to affect or harm Trinidad and Tobago, in particular, with what we are doing for energy security.” However, in a post on the evening of the March 26 meeting with Young, Rubio led with his discussion about the threat posed by the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, followed by “thanks for the Prime Minister’s strong cooperation on energy security, deportation of illegal aliens, and work to limit malign influence in the region.”

Venezuelan gangs would inevitably be at the top of Mr Rubio’s agenda since, one week before meeting Caricom leaders, a US judge blocked deportations of the Tren de Aragua gang members to a prison in El Salvador. Mr Rubio would have been briefed on the threat that Venezuelan gangs pose in Trinidad and Tobago.

A 2024 report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) noted that local gangs are “heavily involved in managing human smuggling in partnership with Venezuelan counterparts” and “the primary supply route for drugs to Trinidad and Tobago is Venezuela and to a lesser extent Guyana and Suriname.”

In response, Young has already started the process for declaring Tren de Aragua a foreign terrorist organisation, which will no doubt be viewed positively by the US administration.

As for energy security, the Secretary of State’s negative phrasing is significant. He made no promises that America would protect or even support T&T’s energy projects, only that US policy was not intended to undermine such initiatives. Rubio’s wording contrasts with his X post about his meeting with Guyana’s president Irfaan Ali, in which he stated in no uncertain terms that

“The United States stands with Guyana in support of its territorial integrity against the Maduro regime.”

Prime Minister Young, however, says he told Rubio that T&T has “a relationship with Venezuela that can be beneficial for the region and the Western Hemisphere because there’s a lot of built-up respect.” Will that argument fly with US policymakers or will they see that relationship as contrary to American interests? In an executive order on March 24, President Donald Trump declared that the Maduro regime poses “an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.”

So, when Secretary Rubio lists “malign influence” in his post about meeting Young, that is what the T&T government must focus on. In his posts on s meetings with other Caribbean leaders, Rubio’s common refrain included illegal immigration, transnational organised crime and regional security. These are the keys to fostering a productive relationship with the current US administration.

 

 

 

Relevance to US plans

Mar 29, 2025

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Jamaica, Guyana and Suriname, while only meeting Prime Minister Young in Jamaica, raises significant diplomatic and strategic concerns for Trinidad and Tobago. Despite historical and economic ties with the United States, the decision to bypass a direct visit prompts questions about Washington’s priorities in the region and the implications for Trinidad and Tobago’s standing in US-Caribbean relations.

One key reason for this non-visit may be geopolitical prioritisation. The US is heavily focused on Guyana’s oil boom, which draws substantial American investment, while Jamaica remains a regional diplomatic hub with strong US alignment. Suriname, though smaller, is also an emerging energy player, making it attractive for deeper US engagement. Trinidad and Tobago, by comparison, may not have been seen as a priority in this round of diplomatic visits, with the US opting for a regional engagement approach by convening leaders in Jamaica instead of making individual stops.

Another possible factor is diplomatic messaging. T&T has, in recent years, pursued an independent foreign policy, particularly in dealings with Venezuela and China. Previous engagements with Nicolás Maduro and its non-alignment on certain US hemispheric policies may have caused discomfort in Washington. The absence of a direct visit could be a subtle diplomatic signal that Trinidad and Tobago’s foreign policy stance is not fully in step with US interests, particularly on regional security and governance matters.

Security concerns may have also played a role in this decision. The country is grappling with rising crime rates, gang violence and security threats, including past concerns about terrorist recruitment. Given that Rubio’s visit also addressed transnational crime and security partnerships, the decision to discuss these issues away from crime-ridden headlines may have been a deliberate choice and Washington’s diplomatic signalling of dissatisfaction with crime-fighting policies or a lack of confidence in its law enforcement capabilities.

From Trinidad and Tobago’s perspective, this non-visit carries significant foreign policy implications. The most immediate concern is the perception of a diplomatic downgrade. Not being included on the itinerary could suggest Washington does not view Trinidad and Tobago as a top-tier regional partner, particularly as the US deepens relationships with Guyana, Jamaica and Suriname. This could have long-term implications for Trinidad and Tobago’s influence within ­Caricom, as Washington increasingly looks to other regional players for leadership on trade, security and governance issues.

Economically, there could be consequences for US-Trinidad and Tobago trade relations, particularly in the energy sector. Trinidad has long been a key LNG and ammonia exporter to the US and Europe, but the absence of a direct visit may indicate a shift in US priorities towards Guyana and Suriname as alternative sources of oil and gas partnerships. Additionally, reduced US diplomatic engagement could make Trinidad and Tobago a less attractive destination for American investment, impacting trade and business relations.

Despite these concerns, with an imminent general election, Trinidad and Tobago still has the opportunity to recalibrate its foreign policy and reaffirm its role as a key US partner in the region. The new government must take proactive steps to strengthen diplomatic channels with Washington, ensuring any perceived misalignment does not lead to further exclusion from critical regional discussions. By actively engaging US officials, clarifying its regional role, and addressing security concerns, TT can reinforce relevance in US relations.

Prime Minister Young did articulate that the Government was indeed taking proactive steps to this effect and reported positive dialogue from the recent bilateral engagement with Secretary Rubio. Although the population did not hear it from Rubio’s mouth, the Prime Minister’s indication that Rubio’s reassurance was that “we are not going to harm Trinidad and Tobago” was a critical element of that exchange, highlighting that US foreign policy is not intended to undermine Trinidad and Tobago’s economic interests.

The Government must therefore be mindful to balance its foreign policy engagements with other global powers while maintaining strong US relations. While we have the sovereign right to engage with Vene­zuela and China, we must ­ensure such relationships do not erode trust with Washington and President Trump. Additionally, reframing the narrative and leveraging our current position as still being one of the energy leaders in the region, as our Prime Minister did articulate, will be crucial to maintaining US economic interest.

Ultimately, the absence of a direct visit should not be ignored. It is a signal that Trinidad and Tobago must work harder to maintain its standing as a key regional player in US diplomacy. Whether this non-visit is merely a logistical decision, a more deliberate diplomatic shift or both, a new administration must take swift action to ensure Trinidad and Tobago remains a relevant and engaged partner in regional affairs.

 

 

 

 

 

Catastrophic tariffs and shipping fees

2025, 03/29

Over the past few weeks, US President Donald Trump has announced a series of tariffs on big economies, which has caused concern in this country, and around the world, due to the trade agreements on goods and vehicles. International media last week reported that Trump initially said he was imposing a 25 per cent tariff on all cars coming into the country. The White House later clarified that foreign auto parts would also be taxed at the 25 per cent rate even if the vehicles they go into are assembled in the US.

However, companies that import vehicles under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will get special consideration until the Commerce Department establishes a process for levying the 25 per cent duties.

Asked about the global tariff scenario , Prime Minister Stuart Young said bilateral talks with United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio presented an opportunity to get the hearing to put forward T&T’s argument on how things can affect the Caricom region.

“There was a commitment to continue communicating as life unfolds and that is the best commitment you can get. I also think we are on a much smaller scale. For example, on the shipping side, the US has discretion as to how they apply these things. So, on Wednesday was a good day to hear our side.”

As concerns loom, Tropical Shipping president and chief executive officer Tim Martin testified before the office of the US Trade Representative, that the proposed tariffs in addition to fees the US Government is considering imposing on Chinese-built ships would severely affect American-owned shipping companies as well as US exporters and Caribbean businesses.

Tropical Shipping said the proposed tariffs include a flat US$1 million port fee on Chinese-built vessels entering US ports. “The US shipping industry serving the Caribbean cannot absorb the additional costs of the proposed port fees, which would have significant economic consequences. Instead of strengthening American competitiveness, these port fees would push American-owned carriers like Tropical out of business.”

Tropical Shipping operates out of the Port of Palm Beach Florida, and nine of its 19 vessels were built in China up to 25 years ago. Martin asked the USTR to exempt American-owned and headquartered vessel operators from proposed fees and to apply the tariffs on future ships built in China, but not on vessels that are already in service. With respect to Tropical Shipping’s role in the Caribbean region, Martin said the average vessel serving the region carries 1,100 twenty foot-equivalent units (TEUs.)

“If the fees in the proposed action are applied to these smaller vessels, we would have to double our freight rates, with an average increase of US$2,500 per container. An increase of this magnitude would be catastrophic for American exporters and Caribbean consumers. As a comparison, applying the proposed US$1 million fee to a vessel that calls on a single US port directly from China carrying 16,000 TEUs would increase the cost per 40-foot container by only US$125,” the president and CEO detailed.

US companies hurt
Earlier in the week President Trump announced a 25 per cent tariff across the board on any country buying oil or gas from Venezuela.

Trump said Venezuela has been “very hostile” to the US. and countries purchasing oil from it will be forced to pay the tariff on all their trade to the US starting April 2. The tariffs would most likely add to the taxes facing China, which in 2023 bought 68 per cent of the oil exported by Venezuela, according to a 2024 analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Spain, India, Russia, Singapore, and Vietnam are also among the countries receiving oil from Venezuela.

Former energy minister Carolyn Seepersad-Bachan said that this country does not purchase oil and gas from Venezuela at this time.

“I think what is of concern is what is the impact going forward on the Dragon gas deal and the Coquina-Manakin gas field. In that regard, we have to be mindful that it is governed by an OFAC licence. Until that is revoked, I don’t see that being an issue, because that licence as well, if we go back to the track and gas, for example, we are speaking about an exploration and production licence, a 30-year licence with the Venezuelan government for the development of that field, for the extraction and development of that field.”

She said a similar scenario applies to the Coquina-Manakin field and that would be more of a concern as this is an indicator as to what will be taking place in October, when the U S government would be required to either renew the OFAC licence or allow it to lapse.

“There was a report in international media that Shell says there is an expectation that it would be producing natural gas at Venezuela’s Dragon gas field and exporting to T&T earlier than the targeted production date of 2027, probably a whole year earlier, 2026.”

Seepersad-Bachan noted that this country should not have been in this position where all of its eggs were in one basket. She questioned why it didn’t take aggressive steps to pursue development of the deepwater acreage within T&T’s maritime boundaries.

Energy expert, Anthony Paul, said it is proposed that T&T and Shell would produce natural gas from the Dragon field and sell it… in return, T&T pays Venezuela a royalty.
“Venezuela isn’t selling us gas. We are extracting the gas, and we are selling it and we are paying Venezuela for the right to extract the gas. What does he mean by paying Venezuela for gas and oil? China buys oil from Venezuela. So, China will pay for the oil. There’s a slight difference in the language and how it’s being interpreted.”

Paul added that, due to geopolitics, he cannot be sure if tariffs on countries that buy Venezuelan gas would affect the Dragon gas deal.

 

 

 

 

Optimism on Dragon after Rubio talks

2025, 03/30

US energy economist Francisco Monaldi calls the latest meeting between Prime Minister Stuart Young and United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio “positive” and says it gives hope for the Dragon gas agreement and the energy relationship between Venezuela and T&T.

Monaldi, an energy economics don at Rice University’s Department of Economics, who also lectures in energy management at the Jones Graduate of School of Business in the United States, said that the licences for the Dragon gas agreement could have been cancelled and they were not and this is good news.

“The meeting does not even say anything about licences being possibly cancelled right now, which is what could have happened. This comes following the announcement by Rubio earlier that all licences issued during the Biden era for the development of energy resources in Venezuela were going to be cancelled. I think that it is pretty positive for T&T. It buys a lot of time for things to be discussed and negotiated.”

Speaking at a post-Cabinet news conference on Thursday, Young said he was optimistic and reported that Rubio promised that the US would not hurt T&T. On whether the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) licence for the Dragon field will be renewed when it expires in October, Young said “things are fluid.”

In the conversation in Jamaica Rubio indicated he was pleased with the information Young provided on Dragon . He said US foreign policy is not meant to harm T&T as it pertains to energy security.

Monaldi also expressed the view that the meeting between Prime Minister Young and Rubio comes at a “crucial time.”

“The second thing that is important to note is the very timing that this meeting occurred which provides a lot of hope for T&T and its energy projects because this is a very crucial moment. That is because it is the moment in which announcements of the revision of the whole policy and the maximum pressure on Venezuela is happening. So, these licences have survived for the moment, partly because of this meeting. It could have been a different situation if they had gone for the maximum pressure initiative.”

The US Government also extended the period for the wind down of Chevron’s operations in Venezuela until May 27, which Monaldi also said is another example of good news.

“So, if we do not see any action in terms of the licences in the next few days and particularly before the expiration of the Chevron licences and even if the Chevron licence expires on May 27, that could be a signal that this will be left for later and that there is potential for getting the licence renewed, which is ultimately what is necessary for any of these projects to have any viability.”

Monaldi also said US Special envoy Richard Grenell wants to come to an agreement with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and it would be an “America first” policy which allows U.S. companies to carry out projects in Venezuela. This is part of Trump’s pragmatic transactional approach in which immigration is the top issue and some of the energy resources will be used as leverage for deportation.

“In that world, there is some possibility for the T&T projects to move forward because they could incorporate the US companies or there could be a way to make it into that vision of ‘America First.’ At this point, I do not think that we know which perspective is going to dominate the US Government. Because the extension of the licences to Chevron shows that there is some space for negotiation.”

Hurt for US companies
Venezuelan Francsico Rodriguez, economics don at the University of Denver in the US has also taken an optimistic position.

He said the extension of the Chevron licence in Venezuela is not intended to cut off Venezuelan oil exports, but rather would be a strategy designed to “favour sales to the US over other destinations.” Many licences of this type are issued for short periods and are constantly renewed.

“The best example is General License 5, which has been renewed 18 times. It wouldn’t be surprising if we enter a similar pattern with Chevron.”

Regarding tariffs, the economist noted that Venezuela “can still export oil to the US but is now threatened with sanctions if it sells to other countries. As long as current licences remain valid (and Chevron could renew them), the policy encourages selling more oil to the US, not less.”

Trump refers to “secondary tariffs,” but that term “doesn’t exist” in either US trade law or international practice.   “In the literature, it usually refers to retaliatory tariffs in trade wars, not punishments for trading with third parties.”

Rodríguez emphasised that this appears to be an attempt to replace secondary sanctions with tariffs, “but there’s a key problem: US sanctions target specific companies, not entire countries. Tariffs don’t work that way. The US also has no way to control Venezuelan crude sales. Much of it moves through ship-to-ship transfers. Washington doesn’t have access to customs data from China or many other countries. Enforcement is essentially impossible.”

Prominent Venezuelan economist Luis Vicente Leon said the situation could evolve in different ways but made a similar argument to Rodriguez. Leon said the latest move of the United States is designed to ensure its companies are the only players in Venezuela’s energy market.

“For now, we know that Chevron’s winddown period has been extended for two more months, and the remaining licences remain active. In light of the recently issued executive order, the oil produced by these companies can still enter the United States duty-free. This means it will be cheaper than oil from the rest of the world. If the decision is made to change oil policy with a new Trump-style licensing system, what appears to be a policy of maximum pressure could instead become a policy of ‘maximum American control’ over Venezuelan energy, which could continue to flow into that country’s market. That would come with a price advantage that would allow the US to influence other heavy oil suppliers. It would be an unconventional and highly questionable strategy, creating a monopoly (or rather, a single-buyer monopsony) for Venezuelan energy.”

Leon said that Trump would kill several birds with one stone.

“He controls the world’s largest oil mine, buys cheaply, pushes down energy prices, and reduces Chinese influence in the region, all while indulging rhetoric against the Maduro Government, albeit without producing political change. For its part, beyond ethical considerations, Venezuela could continue sending oil to the North American market and even increase its production for them.”

 

 

 

 

Hawk v Dragon

29 Mar 2025

The tone Marco Rubio adopted in talks with Caricom leaders in Jamaica on March 26 is in striking contrast to US diplomacy. Donald Trump’s White House has waged tariff war with Canada, expressed disdain for Europe and fights with Greenland and Denmark.

Mr Rubio, respected as a foreign policy hawk before becoming US Secretary of State, has, at times, sat awkwardly amid the chaos. In Jamaica, he admitted the addition of a journalist to a group chat on war plans – of which he was a part – was a “big mistake,” while other Republicans deflected. His place often seems tenuous. Nonetheless, his round of diplomacy is a good thing in a bad situation.

An important offshoot of that effort is the decision, announced by Prime Minister Stuart Young on March 27, to align this country with the US designation of a Venezuelan gang, Tren De Aragua, as a terrorist organisation. While Mr Young asked Mr Rubio for evidence that would justify such a move, there is already some factual basis on which it might proceed. A July 2024 report of the UN’s Office on Drugs and Crime suggested Venezuelan gang activity has been encroaching on TT, including as it relates to extortion, human trafficking and the smuggling of drugs and guns through “straw purchasers.”

The report did not highlight Tren De Aragua, but it named other Venezuelan entities, noted the “embedding” of those entities into local gangs and paid attention to the overlap between gangsterism and extremist ideological groups here. Suggesting further that the path may be clear for Caricom’s decision in February to deem gang violence “acts of terrorism.”

Formally deeming a person or an entity as a terrorist would not require parliamentary action, but, rather, an application to a judge under the Anti-Terrorism Act. As of February, hundreds of such designations have already been ordered and published but application to a gang, local or foreign, would seem unprecedented. Even so, this matter should be carefully weighed across partisan lines given the imminence of the general election, the risk of diluting the law, as well as the potential for abuse.

Of concern should be how the Trump administration openly targeted or smeared immigrants, even some lawfully resident under Joe Biden’s financial sponsorship scheme. The expansion of detention at Guantanamo Bay raised alarm bells. There is irony in the deeming of certain immigrants as criminals given Mr Trump’s pardoning of insurrectionists. Mr Rubio has offered positions. But his boss, with the stroke of a pen, could undo all.

 

 

 

 

Young, Maduro and Trump

27 Mar 2025

Suffering citizens await the end of the drama among the trio, Stuart, Nicholas and Donald .
With trademark hybrid vigour, TT Prime Minister Stuart Young says hour-long bilateral talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Jamaica on March 26, offered some hope that cross border energy agreements with Venezuela will be allowed to continue.

“It was a good day for Trinidad and Tobago. With the Dragon (gas project), we are continuing full speed ahead.”

Rubio made it clear the US will do nothing to harm TT’s economy. Young said Rubio understood the importance of energy security for TT and Caricom. There was agreement between Rubio and himself to remain engaged on energy and national security matters in the region.

There was agreement for TT and the US to continue to collaborate on fighting transnational crime in the region, including combating the infamous Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, whom Trump claimed to be directed by Maduro. With his former Security Minister in the PM Office, Young seems unaware that TT murders were linked to the gang. With no firm evidence this gang is operating in TT, Young said it was wise to take a pre-emptive strike and see what can be done to legally declare Tren de Aragua a foreign terrorist organisation.

TT made an application to acquire certain national security assets from the US which can assist in bolstering domestic and regional national security. In a briefing on March 25 about Rubio’s travel itinerary, US Special Envoy for Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone said the US understood TT’s long-standing role as an energy leader and this is a historic opportunity for energy security in the region.

“Obviously it is going through its own development as it seeks to revitalise its natural gas opportunities and is going through that modernisation as some of the older fields and opportunities there dry up and they’re looking for the new ones.

There, along with a lot of the challenges posed with Venezuela, we’re deeply committed to working with Trinidad to figuring out how to re-energize that – those natural gas opportunities and ensure that its economy continues to move forward despite the challenges presented with Venezuela and otherwise.”

.

 

 

Electoral and trading challenges loom

2025,  03/28

Notwithstanding assurances given to Prime Minister Stuart Young by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio that the US will not do anything to harm Trinidad and Tobago’s economic future, the determination by US President, Donald Trump to institute a 25 per cent tariff against Chinese trade coming into the region can add to T&T’s difficulties in the processing of Venezuela’s natural gas.

The latter possible evolving scenario is not one which T&T can easily emerge from unscathed. To align itself with the US against Venezuela leaves T&T without that country’s raw materials to process; to hold fast to its agreements with Venezuela means a loss of US support and a 25 per cent tariff against any products to be exported into the United States from the Dragon agreement.

All of this adds to the heated political environment even before election campaign 2025 is fully into a pell-mell race to April 28th. With only the ruling People’s National Movement (PNM) having declared all its candidates, and the Opposition United National Congress still contemplating and or waiting on the best moment to make known final decisions, conflict, doubt and confusion occupy national space.

Amongst the small parties in Trinidad, there is disintegration and fragile alliances. but in Tobago, THA Chief Secretary Farley Augustine is fully cognizant of the determining role he and his Tobago People’s Party can potentially play in the election if it were to win the two parliamentary seats on the island and if the electoral scores in Trinidad are very close, which he expects will place him in a position to decide which party will become the next government. On this possibility, Augustine has made known his intention that to the “highest bidder,” much like in an auction sale, is where his hammer will fall.

His former colleague, Watson Duke, has indicated he will only settle in exchange for his support, what he considers the four most important ministerial positions in the cabinet.
Thankfully, with the odd number of seats in the national Parliament, one party will have a majority in Trinidad; whether it will be a working majority is a different issue. However, given the nature of politics, the capacity politicians have for “by any means possible” horse-trading remains a possibility to settle problems which may arise.

The hope is for the national electorate to make a clear decision by voting a party into office with something of a workable majority for it to form the government and be able to make critical decisions, without the possibility of the Opposition making life difficult. At least with one party in office, that can eliminate the need for intra-party alliances, which, as history has shown, are like “jumbie umbrellas” that collapse into the soil the morning after.

Nonetheless, if the electorate cannot make a clear decision, or chooses to show a state of uncertainty between and amongst the parties contesting for governorship, or if voters decide to tell the parties they have to cooperate in the national interest, then it will be over to the leaders and their parties to decide on how government will become fully functional.

With the above-listed geo-political and economic possibilities threatening, post-election confusion will be the last thing those seeking to govern T&T would want to face going forward.

 

 

 

 

Rubio warns Young to combat Venezuelan gang threat

27 Mar 2025

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Prime Minister Stuart Young agreed to co-operate on deepening collaboration on energy, national security and other matters of mutual interest.

State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce, read a statement by the US State Department on March 26, after they held bilateral discussions for an hour in Jamaica, saying Rubio thanked Young “for Trinidad and Tobago’s cooperation to promote energy security, deepen our security partnership and enhance coordination on the deportation of illegal aliens.”

They discussed the Trump administration’s decision to name the dangerous Venezuelan gang, Tren de Aragua, as a foreign terrorist organisation (FTO) and advise regional partners to take similar steps.

Rubio encouraged Young to join the US and other democracies in limiting malign influence in the region. The US Embassy in TT repeated this information later on March 26.

The Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) earlier on March 26 said, “The talks focused on several issues of mutual interest, including national security, trade and energy. The discussions were productive with both parties emphasizing the importance of the relationship between both countries and pledging to deepen ties.”

Young returned home on March 26 and will provide information on the bilateral discussions with Rubio.

On March 24, US President Donald Trump announced the US will put a secondary tariff on Venezuela for many reasons, including allegedly sending high level criminals to the US such as members of the Tren de Aragua gang.

Any country which purchases oil and gas from Venezuela will be forced to pay a 25 per cent tariff to the US on any trade they do with the US, with effect from April 2.

On March 20, Young said efforts continue to ensure cross-border energy deals with Venezuela come to fruition.

“We will continue working. I will personally continue working, Fighting is the language I used for TT. That has continued. Very, very shortly I will be able to provide some additional information to TT with respect to those lines.”

Last month, Rubio said, “Today, pursuant to @POTUS directive, I am providing foreign policy guidance to terminate all Biden-era oil and gas licences that have shamefully bankrolled the illegitimate Maduro regime.”

On February 26, Trump announced a licence granted under the Biden administration in November 2022 for Chevron to operate joint ventures with Venezuela’s state-controlled oil company PDVSA, was cancelled. The announcements follow an increased bounty offer on Maduro by the US government in early January, US$25 million was offered for information leading to the Venezuelan president’s arrest on outstanding narco-terrorism charges filed in the US in 2020.

One of the licences granted by the Biden administration was for the TT-Venezuela Dragon gas deal. On December 21, 2023, the Venezuelan government issued the licence to NGC (National Gas Company) and Shell to develop and export natural gas from the Dragon gas field to TT. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), under the US Treasury, played a key role in granting this licence under the Biden administration.

Concerns were raised about whether the Dragon project could be in jeopardy after Trump won the presidential election on November 4. The US$1 billion Dragon gas deal was first signed between TT and Venezuela in August 2018 but it was left in limbo after the US imposed sanctions on Venezuela in 2019 when Trump was president.

*In a letter to Trump on November 6, then prime minister Dr Keith Rowley wrote, “The Republic of TT and the USA share a long and enduring relationship, founded on deep ties across many sectors, including trade, security, culture and people-to-people exchanges. We look forward to further strengthening our cooperation in the years ahead.”

Reuters reported on February 25 that TT government would meet the US to extend the licence for the Dragon project. At the Energy Conference in Port of Spain on February 11, Rowley said government intends to engage the Trump administration on the importance of several energy projects, including the Dragon project and the Manakin-Cocuina project. The projects were important also to the region’s energy security.Rowley resigned as prime minister on March 16 and Young officially succeeded him one day later.

*The history is marred by ousting US Naval Base Chaguaramas, nationalisation of Texaco and bond with Bolivarians.

 

 

 

 

Natural gas and markets

2025, 03/26

This is the first installment of a two-part series examining natural gas prices. In this segment, we focus on the international pricing benchmarks for natural gas across three key markets:

1. 1. 1. the Netherlands Title Transfer Facility (TTF),
      2. the US Henry Hub and
      3. the Japan/Korea Marker (JKM).

These markets play a critical role in determining natural gas prices globally and are particularly relevant to T&T.

In the past the price for LNG being exported from T&T was linked to Henry Hub prices. However the revised pricing formula for T&T LNG exports is now based on one third JKM, one third TTF and one third the Brent oil price benchmark.

The US Henry Hub, located in Louisiana, is the most widely recognised natural gas pricing point in North America.

This is the price that often gets quoted on news channels as the “natural gas price” though in reality, natural gas prices vary significantly based on both geography and on the contract under which the gas is sold.

The Netherlands Title Transfer Facility (TTF) is a virtual trading hub for natural gas in the Netherlands and serves as the primary benchmark for gas prices in Europe.

Meanwhile, the Japan/Korea Marker (JKM) is a key reference price for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia.

Given that almost half of T&T’s natural gas is exported as LNG, variations in the prices of gas at the European and Asian hubs (as well as variations in oil prices) will have a big impact on the price of natural gas at the wellhead in T&T. This impacts the revenue collected by the Government.

When the Atlantic facility was first constructed, the US Henry Hub prices were typically among the highest in the world. However, the advent of shale gas and the subsequent surge in domestic natural gas production in the US led to a decline in Henry Hub prices, which have since been lower than both TTF and JKM prices.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused significant disruptions in global energy markets, particularly in Europe. As Russia is a major supplier of natural gas to Europe, sanctions and supply constraints led to sharp price increases in Europe and also for the importers of LNG into East and South Asia, who are now competing with Europe for LNG imports.

The crisis heightened demand for natural gas and spurred a search for alternative sources, particularly LNG. While the US also experienced price increases, the impact was less severe compared to Europe, as the conflict did not directly affect US energy supplies.

Fortunately for T&T, because of the renegotiation of the Atlantic contracts, some of the LNG export prices were linked to European and Asian, rather than the US benchmark. This resulted in a significant increase in revenue.

Although prices began to decline in 2023, they remain elevated compared to pre-crisis levels. Consequently, T&T’s LNG export gas prices have also remained high during this period, reflecting the formula’s reliance on the JKM and SF international benchmarks.

In the next installment, we will delve deeper into the domestic natural gas pricing structure in T&T and its implications for the local economy.

 

 

 

US ‘deeply committed’ to T&T future

2025, 03/26 -Saul Loeb

The US Department of State confirmed that Secretary of State Marco Rubio will discuss a commitment to developing Trinidad and Tobago’s gas production for regional energy security during discussions with Caricom leaders in Jamaica today.

However, Rubio will tell the leaders that the US will not support any further regional dependency on Venezuela. The confirmation came during a US State Department briefing in Washington DC, yesterday, ahead of Rubio’s trip to the region, which will include visits to Guyana and Suriname.

The position laid out by US Special Envoy for Latin America, Mauricio Claver-Caron, raised more questions on whether the Dragon gas agreement between Venezuela and T&T, supported by a US licence and limited sanction waivers, will materialise.

Claver-Caron said the US is “deeply committed” to working with T&T on the gas issue, but did not make any pronouncement on the Dragon gas matter.

“With Trinidad, which has been an energy leader in the region, obviously it is going through its own development as it seeks to revitalise its natural gas opportunities and is going through that modernisation as some of the older fields and opportunities there dry up and they’re looking for the new ones.

“There, along with a lot of the challenges posed with Venezuela, we’re deeply committed to working with Trinidad to figuring out how to re-energise that – those natural gas opportunities and ensure that its economy continues to move forward despite the challenges presented with Venezuela and otherwise.”

Prime Minister Stuart Young, who led the Dragon gas talks in his capacity as Minister of Energy , will attend today’s meeting and according to the State Department, is one of the leaders that Secretary Rubio intends to have bilateral talks with.

Yesterday, Young told reporters he intends to make the “most compelling argument” for T&T’s interests.

“I believe in Trinidad and Tobago, and I know what are the best arguments for us to put forward. I have not been in contact since the specific comment that you are referring to from Secretary of State Rubio. There’s also been some dialogue or statement from the President’s Office in the United States, President Trump. These are things that we monitor carefully and closely and I remain in contact with the Venezuelan government managing it.”

However, Claver-Caron made it clear the US does not see Venezuela having any major role in the future of the region’s energy security. He noted that Secretary Rubio’s decision to visit Guyana and Suriname is to help those nations become key energy suppliers to the region.

“Together with Guyana and Suriname, which – and obviously the history of Trinidad with natural gas – this is an opportunity that countries from the Caricom community, from the region, are going to be able to support each other, to be able to create an energy security framework, which has already changed the geopolitics of the region.”

In this regard, he said Rubio will give a commitment to helping secure Guyana from threats made by Venezuela.
Claver-Caron was asked to explain how Caribbean countries would be impacted by the Trump administration’s decision to impose a 25 per cent tariff on any country that purchases oil or gas from Venezuela.

He said since President Trump’s 2019 maximum pressure policy, there has been a reduction in energy sales from Venezuela to the region. The exception was Cuba, which gets 45,000 barrels per day “at no cost and no income” to Venezuela.  Claver-Caron said this reduction creates a unique opportunity for T&T, Guyana and Suriname.

“The fact that these Caricom nations, that Guyana and Suriname, and then obviously on the natural gas front kind of in the revitalization of however we can help in Trinidad in that regards, are really unique opportunities there. And that’s what we really need to be focused on, because we don’t want to have a rekindling of the past and of all the troubles and issues that the dependency on Venezuela brought to the islands .”

The meeting will also discuss the use of Cuban doctors in the Caribbean.

“The quality of Cuban doctors and the work they’ve done in the Caribbean, in Haiti, et cetera, is great; it’s extraordinary. What we are asking is that they not support human trafficking,” Claver-Caron said.

 

 

 

 

Caracas Cronyism blurs gas talks

2025, 03/27

The United National Congress (UNC) and the Congress of the People (COP) slammed Prime Minister Stuart Young and his predecessor, Dr Keith Rowley, for their “closeness” with the Nicolas Maduro regime in Venezuela.

UNC prospective candidate for Barataria/San Juan Saddam Hosein and COP leader Prakash Ramadhar spoke about the issue as Young met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Jamaica .

Yesterday, the US Embassy released information on a State Department briefing on Rubio’s trip. US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said Rubio was signalling prioritising “the region we call home.” Bruce said when the Caribbean prospers, the US prospers. She spoke of collaboration on security, particularly to disrupt narcotics and firearms trafficking and combatting transnational organised crime.

US Special Envoy for Latin America, Mauricio Claver-Carone, said the historic opportunity in the situation was for energy security in the region to improve lives, opportunities and the relationship with the US.

At an Opposition media briefing at UNC  headquarters in Chaguanas, Hosein said Young was “probably in Jamaica defending statements and his actions and his conduct over the last 10 years with respect to his relationship with the Maduro regime and that of Delcy Rodriguez.

We wait to hear what is the outcome of that meeting between Mr Young and US Secretary of State Rubio with respect to that particular matter. We wish the best for T&T and we as the Opposition always gave a commitment to maintain strong bilateral ties with the US.

However, we’ve seen over the past few years—which we’d repeatedly warned the Government of their closeness and relationship with the Maduro regime, which is clearly frowned upon by the new US administration. Coming out of those meetings, all we do is wish the best for T&T.”

Ramadhar—Alternative to Dragon Gas needed

Meanwhile, COP leader Ramadhar, who also hoped for the best from the meeting, said, “Our bloodline economy has been hinged on oil and gas. We all know now the dire straits we’re in concerning their production. There’s always a possibility of success but the likelihood is grim that T&T may benefit from Dragon gas.

“Therefore, has there been any negotiations with Guyana or Suriname, both of which T&T has had friendly relations with forever? It was disturbing to see that Guyana was intent on exporting its oil production to the US for refining, then having it brought back to Guyana. Our refinery was closed in 2018 but the knowledge of Guyana’s reserves especially has been known for years before.

Was there any effort to partner with Guyana from the initial stage to today, as our refinery has the capacity to do far more than what was available to it. It’s not too late to hold these negotiations if they haven’t already begun.”

Ramadhar said he hasn’t heard much of that,

“but it’s an obvious choice. If Dragon gas is to fail, we must have resources available to us and if Guyana, our friendly neighbour has this, then we should tap into that with all vigour that we have, which requires very quality diplomacy. I don’t know if we have the capacity to do it at this time but we must have that negotiations begun and concluded as soon as it’s possible for the viability not just of T&T but the region itself. I’ll look forward to a new dispensation dealing with those issues.”

Ramadhar questioned how T&T believed the Guyanese feel about Venezuela threatening to take their territory and how they may feel about the “close, warm relationship” T&T has shown to Maduro’s regime.

“A dictatorship that suppresses its people, when our money coming from the Dragon deal—if it had come to fruition—would have possibly financed the war against Guyana.”

Caricom election observers in Guyana including one from TT who withdrew, failed to resolve the 2020 election scandal and it was left to the EU, USA and other foreigners to oust the illegitimate fraudsters clinging to power and ensure victory for the PPP winners .

 

 

 

Talks with Rubio “very positive and productive”

2025, 03/27

Prime Minister Stuart Young said talks with United States Secretary of State, Marco Rubio were very positive and productive.

The meeting in Jamaica was eclipsed by US sanctions and tariffs on countries doing business with Venezuela.  Young also paid a courtesy call on Prime Minister of Jamaica Andrew Holness.

“We discussed the recent history of the relationship between Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago since 2016 and how it has been strengthened in mutually beneficial ways.”

Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley travelled to Jamaica for similar engagements and they had bilateral discussions on a wide range of topics.

 

 

 

Tariffs on importers of Venezuelan petroleum

24 Mar 2025

Since US President Trump announced a 25 per cent import tariff on countries buying oil and gas from Venezuela on March 24, the big question in Trinidad and Tobago is, what does this mean for exports?

One chamber said the tariffs could have a deleterious effect on TT’s export manufacturing industry. One expert said the tariffs, like those against Mexico and Canada, would likely harm the US economy more than TT’s economy.

Trump announced a “secondary tariff” on Venezuela in response to the OPEC founder “purposely and deceitfully” sending tens of thousands of criminals to the United States and because Venezuela was very hostile to the US and its freedoms.

“Therefore any country that purchases oil and/or gas from Venezuela will be forced to pay a tariff of 25 per cent to the US on any trade they do with our country with effect on April 2.”

A general licence was awarded to oil and gas giant Chevron by the US department of the Treasury, authorising the wind down of certain transactions related to Chevron’s joint ventures in Venezuela.The licence allows for the winding-down of transactions related to the operation and management of Cheveron’s joint ventures with Petroleos de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA) or any entity which PDVSA owns.

The order said it does not authorise the payment of taxes or royalties to Venezuela, payment of dividends to PDVSA or the sale of petroleum products produced through Chevron’s joint ventures with PDVSA for export to the US.

One economist said tariffs could hurt TT but it would depend on what TT exports to the US.

“It obviously might dampen demand for goods from TT, but that is if, in fact they could get it elsewhere.

If the US importers can get the goods cheaper elsewhere then it could hurt TT and other countries so affected. If they can’t and they continue to source it from TT, then it is simply going to hurt them.”

President of the Confederation of Regional Business Chambers Vivek Charran said the tariffs could not only mean that the export manufacturing sector in TT could take a serious hit, but it also puts a strain on TT-US trade relationships, especially at a time where TT is facing challenges with foreign exchange (Forex).

“You would expect that it would affect the manufacturing sector really badly. It is going to jeopardise or make it difficult to have the US as a trade partner. Seeing that we really want US dollars and considering that America is a very large market, it is going to affect the outlook for many successful manufacturing exporters who already have a foot in the door.”

Tariffs are taxes charged on goods imported from other countries. For example, if TT had a 20 per cent tariff on a particular US-made item costing US$10, when it is imported it will have an additional US$2 charge. Businesses that import these items can decide whether to absorb the cost or pass some or all on to customers.

The US International Trade Administration in TT says customs duty is imposed on products coming into TT based on the fair market value of imported goods at the time it lands in the country. Import prices for products are generally based on cost, insurance, freight and duty along with VAT, which is reduced to zero per cent for certain goods.

TT has also implemented Caricom’s common external tariff (CET) for goods from countries outside Caricom, with import tariffs as high as 30 per cent for auto parts, DVD players and jewellery, and 20 per cent for other products. TT’s tariff system fits in seamlessly with its foreign trade policy which also has bilateral investment agreements with the US, Canada, China, several countries in the EU, the UK and Mexico.

TT also has a preferential tariff arrangement with the US under the Caribbean Basin Economic Recovery Act, implemented in 1984 to allow products from beneficiary countries such as TT to export to the US without having to pay any duties.

TT, in the middle of US/Venezuelan geopolitical issues, shares close trade relationships with both countries. The US State Department said in 2023, the US was TT’s largest trading partner, exporting US$5.4 billion to TT and importing US$3.5 billion in TT goods.

With regard to Venezuela, energy is one of the areas in which TT and Venezuela collaborate the most. In 2024, Minister of Energy Stuart Young announced that the US Government had awarded TT a licence to explore for natural gas in the Manakin-Cocuina Field, the second largest of the fields that straddle the TT/Venezuela maritime border.  Manakin-Cocuina has a capacity of at least one trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven gas reserves.

The Loran/Manatee field has a total of seven tcf, with a capacity of 2.7 tcf on TT’s side of the field. The Kapoc/Dorado field has a capacity of 0.31 tcf.

TT was also granted a 30-year licence to explore, produce and export gas from the Venezuelan Dragon Field to TT.

 

 

 

 

Can Young save Dragon deal?

2025, 03/25

The Caribbean Basin is often referred to as the third border of the United States, so, unsurprisingly, United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio is embarking on a three-nation tour of the region tomorrow.

Jamaica is the first stop on this trip, which will also take Rubio to Guyana and Suriname. Prime Minister Stuart Young, on his first overseas assignment since taking over from Dr Keith Rowley, is among the regional leaders who will hold bilateral discussions with the chief diplomatic representative in the Donald Trump administration. US foreign policy and its effect on T&T and the wider region is expected to be in focus, but for TT, the issue that looms large will be the Dragon gas deal with Venezuela, which has been mired in uncertainty ever since Trump took office.

As Energy Minister, Young has been at the forefront of negotiations with Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro regime to get that deal off the ground. Therefore, he can provide insight into the proposed arrangement during his talks with Rubio. However, with Venezuela—and any country that buys its oil—the subject of the latest tariff threats from the Trump administration, it will take diplomatic skill on the part of Young and his delegation to save the Dragon deal.

Still, Rubio’s planned stops in Guyana and Suriname, where there have been massive oil discoveries in recent years, suggest that energy is a priority issue for the Trump administration.

The talks between Young and Rubio are taking place at a critical time in T&T’s longstanding relationship with the US, which, although described as cordial, is likely to be tested by many policies being imposed by the Trump regime.

There have been marked shifts in the US stance on several issues that directly affect T&T and other countries in the region.  Last month, Rubio announced that any country participating in Cuba’s medical missions, which deploy nurses and doctors to several countries in the region, risks having the US visas of their officials cancelled.

Before he stepped down as prime minister, Dr Rowley was among Caricom leaders who said they were prepared to lose their visas, noting that the Cuban medics performed a vital role in the health sectors of many Caricom countries.

Other actions by the new US administration that are cause for concern are US freezes on foreign aid, quitting global commitments on climate change, the ramped-up deportation policy and the threat of travel bans.

Even with these concerns, regional leaders should take comfort in the fact that Rubio’s visit comes a mere two months after the new Trump administration took office in the United States. It suggests that the US government sees value in maintaining close ties with the region.

Young isn’t the only regional leader heading to Jamaica for talks with the US Secretary of State, but he is the one with plenty to prove, particularly with his pledge to engage in dialogue with high-level US officials for the benefit of the people of T&T. With Dragon gas hanging in the balance, these talks could define the nature of bilateral relations with the new US regime.

Let’s see how the new PM fares in this test of his foreign relations acumen.

 

 

 

 

IDB Invest grants US$150m to Massy Group

20 March 2025

Marisela Alvarenga, managing director of IDB Invest and James McLetchie, deputy CEO of Massy Group, signed a US$150 million agreement between IDB invest and Massy Group on March 17.

In the largest private sector investment ever made by IDB Invest, a US$150 million financing package has been granted to Massy Group to support trade, food security and sustainable growth. The package includes a US$90 million long-term loan to upgrade Massy’s capital expenditure.

IDB Invest and Massy Group announced this strategic partnership at a signing ceremony of the agreement on March 17. IDB said this agreement will support Massy’s expansion plans and help modernise its operations in logistics and distribution with an emphasis on automating business operations. Additionally, a US$60 million trade finance programme will be implemented to enhance intra-regional trade and strengthen Massy’s supply chain platform.

“It’s not just a transaction. I think the innovation and the creativity of what was put together is a very symbolic representation of what this group can do and what this region can do collectively with good partners,” said James McLetchie, deputy CEO of Massy Group.

“This partnership positions us, not only for financing incentives. As we want to become a stronger net contributor of US dollars and hard currency…this is the first step with a partner that is well established to help us access capital.”

Planning and Development Minister Pennelope Beckles-Robinson thanked IDB Invest for its commitment and focus on expanding its presence and impact on the region.

“TT has been a member of IDB Invest since its inception and the work of the IDB continues to support our government’s commitment to national development strategy Vision 2030. Both in terms of financing established companies and also conducting more exploratory work on the ground. Taking more risks, providing support to small and medium enterprises, attracting private investment and creating synergies with the bank’s public sector windows. As these initiatives are executed and we begin to see increased private sector investment and expansion, they will lead to significant and sustainable benefits for the people of TT.”

She said in TT, the IDB Invest portfolio comprises five companies, incuding:

1. 1. • the Home Mortgage Bank,
      • TT Mortgage Finance Company Ltd and
      • TT Tissues Ltd.

The signing of the partnership with Massy Group will bring the value of the portfolio to US$307 million.

Beckles-Robinson said she looks forward to seeing these numbers grow in the future.

“The benefits of this are numerous and will resound throughout TT and the Caribbean region. They will include increased productivity and engagement with the support of local supply chains across the region. Especially food suppliers in the expansion of storage, warehousing capacity and the modernisation of payment facilities.

“We also expect positive impacts on import financing across Massy’s lines of business, improved and increased market linkages across the Caribbean and increased food security in the region through adaptation to mitigate the effects of climate change on the availability and supply of food.

 

 

 

 

40th iteration of exercise TRADEWINDS 25 unites 26 nations promoting security

U.S. Army South Public Affairs – April 28, 2025 TETERON BAY, Trinidad and Tobago –

More than 1,000 service members, law enforcement professionals, government officials and other participants from 26 partner and allied nations gathered at Teteron Barracks, Chaguaramas, Trinidad and Tobago, on April 26 to officially commence TRADEWINDS 25, the U.S. Southern Command-sponsored, U.S. Army South-led multinational, multi-domain exercise. U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Evan Pettus, SOUTHCOM military deputy commander, said,

“It’s truly an honor to be with you here today to mark the official opening of TW25 and a true testament to the enduring strength of our regional partnerships and our shared commitment to security, stability and resilience in the Caribbean and beyond,”

“Over the coming days, we’re going to train together, share best practices and strengthen our ability to respond swiftly and effectively, when our nations need us most. Putting together an exercise like this is no small matter. It’s extremely complex, and it’s an absolute testament to the capability and leadership of this nation to be able to host something like this.”

Hosted this year by Trinidad and Tobago from April 26 to May 8, TW25 features joint, combined, and interagency training across ground, air, sea and cyber domains. The exercise is designed to strengthen regional partnerships, improve interoperability and enhance the readiness of participating nations to counter transnational threats and conduct humanitarian assistance/disaster relief (HA/DR) operations.

The event served as a symbolic launch to the 13-day exercise that highlights strategic cooperation in the surrounding regions that has been in the works for almost a year. Air Vice Marshall Darryl Daniel, Trinidad and Tobago Defence Force chief of defense staff, said,

“Months of rigorous planning and coordination have gone into crafting a dynamic program that strengthens our capabilities and deepens our cooperation. TW25 is more than an exercise; it is a shared mission built on mutual respect, collaboration and collective work to secure a common future.”

Participating countries include Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Canada, Colombia, Dominica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, France, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Mexico, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos, the United Kingdom and United States.

The diverse training taking place throughout the exercise will focus on ground operations, maritime interdiction, cyber defense and interagency coordination, all critical to confronting evolving regional challenges such as illicit trafficking, disaster response, and cyber threats. The multi-domain track exercise will culminate with a full mission profile event to demonstrate the joint, combined capabilities enhanced during the training.

TW25 underscores the U.S. collective commitment to allies and partners bolstering global security through shared training and operational integration. Pettus agreed with Daniel in that TRADEWINDS is more than an exercise.

“It’s a promise that when disaster strikes, we’re ready to stand together, and a promise that when humanitarian crises arise, we’ll answer the call and promise that when challenges arise. As we officially commence TW25 let’s approach this exercise with a spirit of collaboration, dedication and shared vision for a safer and more resilient, Western Hemisphere, together we are stronger, and together we will be ready.”

Now in its 40th iteration, TRADEWINDS remains a cornerstone of U.S. security cooperation in the Caribbean Basin and Latin America. By bringing together like-minded nations in a dynamic training environment, the exercise continues to promote peace, stability, and mutual understanding in the Western Hemisphere.

The Tradewinds exercise began in 1984 and has long been a fixture in US-Caribbean security co-operation. It provides opportunities for partner nations to share knowledge and improve their ability to operate together in times of crisis. TW25 continues until May 8 with activities planned across several locations in TT.

 

 

 

Guyana responds to Venezuelan invasion at diplomatic, legal and security levels

March 1, 2025

The Government of Guyana strongly condemns the invasion by Venezuelan armed patrol ships into its exclusive waters and has instituted diplomatic, legal and security measures to respond to the situation.

President Dr Mohamed Irfaan Ali delivered a firm statement alongside Prime Minister Brigadier (Ret’d) Mark Phillips and Chief of Defence Staff, Brigadier Omar Khan. Head of state and Commander in Cheif, Dr Mohamed Irfaan Ali, met Cabinet and Guyana Defense Force officials at his office .

At approximately 07:00 hours, the Venezuelan Coast Guard patrol ship approached Guyana’s offshore assets, including the FPSO Prosperity, before transmitting a radio message falsely claiming that the FPSO was operating in “disputed international waters”. It then proceeded on a southwesterly course towards other FPSOs.

President Ali stated that the Government views this as a serious threat to its territorial sovereignty and is taking all the necessary actions to address the situation.

“We are addressing the situation within the seriousness and responsibility it requires. We have already summoned the Venezuelan ambassador. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs would have summoned him to his office, registering our strong protests over this matter. Additionally,

I’ve already advised our embassy in Venezuela in Caracas to lodge a formal protest with the Venezuelan government.

Guyana has reportedly engaged the United Kingdom, France, United States, Brazil and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) on this grave development, to which President Said,

“I’m pleased to also communicate to you that we have reached out to all our international partners, and all our international partners have responded positively.”

The Defense Board has convened an emergency meeting to assess and respond to the situation. Coast guard and Air Force assets have been deployed to its economic exclusive zone to ensure national security.

The government will also formally inform the International Court of Justice (ICJ) of this breach, and the United Nations, Commonwealth and the Organisation of American States (OAS). Opposition Leader, Aubrey Norton will also be briefed on this matter of national concern.

The head of state made clear the Government of Guyana’s firm commitment to peace and the rule of law and will continue to strive for diplomatic solutions while protecting Guyana’s territorial integrity.

“I want to assure the people of Guyana that our government is acting with diligence and resolve. I will provide further updates as more information becomes available.   I also want to reiterate that this is an international matter.   And as I have already done, the opposition will be fully engaged, fully briefed, and all of you would have the relevant information that is necessary,” Guyana’s president said in closing.

 

 

National Energy Explorer to work in Africa

Apr 23, 2025

The National Energy Explorer, one of National Energy’s fast crew supply vessels, was earlier this month awarded a charter to support offshore operations in West Africa. The vessel will serve as a vital connector in offshore operations—fast transport for crew, equipment and essential supplies between the onshore and offshore facility. Charter of the Explorer marks a milestone in National Energy’s strategy to expand the reach of its marine services in the international offshore energy sector. This also demonstrates the capability of the company’s fleet to meet the demands of complex offshore operations beyond T&T’s borders.

Kevin Phillips, head of vessel operations, said, “It’s a proud moment for all of us on board. Taking the National Energy Explorer to West Africa shows the strength of our training, our teamwork and our commitment to excellence. We’re ready to represent Trinidad and Tobago and deliver world-class service.”

National Energy is part of the National Gas Company Group which has been involved in several initiatives in Africa over the last 20 years. Since 2006, NGC and its subsidiaries have supported the government-led African Initiative, which seeks to establish partnerships and leverage synergies with African energy-producers. The group had several engagements with Mozambique, Ghana and Tanzania.