Moonilal taps Indian Oil to revive refinery

January 30  –  NEW DELHI -Reuters

Summary

• • • Trinidad and Tobago will consider Venezuelan oil for refinery
    • Prefers to award oil, gas blocks through direct talks
    • In talks with Chevron & TotalEnergies for blocks award

 Energy Minister Roodal Moonilal of Trinidad and Tobago is in talks with Indian Oil Corp to restart its mothballed 165,000-barrel-per-day Guaracara oil refinery, as the Anchor of the American Atlantic Archipelago of the Lesser Antilles, plans to revive refining capacity shut in 2018 by the last government amid massive losses and debt .

“If all things go well, I think by the end of this year or so, end-2026, we may be on target to start back some level of production. We can work out some type of new commercial structure (for Indian Oil),” Moonilal told Reuters on the sidelines of India Energy Week.

Trinidad and Tobago crude output currently stands under 55,000 bpd. The refinery previously processed crude from Africa, Russia and neighbouring Venezuela. The country would be open to resuming imports of Venezuelan crude if the refinery restarts but its immediate priority with Caracas remains the development of shared offshore gas resources.

“In the early 1990s, we actually had a contract for crude (with Venezuela). So it is something we can put on the table again. But at this moment, the priority is the cross-border gas fields.”

Moonilal led a delegation in a series of bilateral meetings and an exhibition tour, engaging with international energy companies. The team included chairman of Guaracara Refining Company Ltd. Gowtam Maharaj, chairman of Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd. Kurt Ramlal and acting senior chemical engineer at the Energy Ministry Terrance Ali.

“During these discussions, Minister Moonilal and the delegation shared insights into Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector, highlighting the upstream potential and plans to restart the Pointe-à-Pierre Refinery.”

The delegation emphasised strengths as a well-established, energy-based economy open to investment, supported by a highly skilled and readily available local talent pool. Participating companies provided updates on their current operations and explored potential areas for future collaboration with Trinidad and Tobago, which the minister will be actively pursuing.

Trinidad and Tobago supports Shell and BP in their request for U.S. authorisation to develop three gas fields, including one located in Venezuelan waters. Boosting gas production is critical to supplying the flagship Atlantic LNG plant and petrochemical facilities, which have been operating below capacity due to gas shortages.

The Ministry prefers awarding exploration blocks through direct negotiations as the process is faster than bidding rounds. Trinidad and Tobago last month missed its deadline to award three deepwater blocks to CNOOC after a concluding the bids met all criteria.

The Ministry’s Permanent Secretary Karinsa Tulsie could not comment on the reasons for the delay but anxiety is growing over PRC espionage amid US hemispheric plans.

U.S. major Exxon Mobil, the Oil & Gas GOLD STANDARD, was awarded an ultra-deepwater block through direct negotiations in August last year. The Ministry is holding talks with global companies including TotalEnergies which is developing a deepwater discovery in neighbouring Suriname.

The government also approached Chevron to gauge interest in offshore exploration which may prove fruitful.   Chevron acquired Texaco almost 25 years ago in October 2021 for $35–$36 billion in stock and assumed debt, forming ChevronTexaco.

The merger created the world’s fourth-largest publicly traded oil company at the time. Chevron would thus be knowledgeable about Texaco Trinidad which operated the largest refinery in the Commonwealth and dominated the local oil industry from 1957 to 1985 when it was nationalised.

Petrotrin was founded in 1993 by the merger of state-owned oil companies. Trintopec originated in 1985 when the government purchased Trinidad Tesoro, its joint venture with Tesoro Oil Company, created to acquire BP assets in 1969.

Trintoc acquired assets of Shell Trinidad Ltd in 1974 and Texaco Trinidad in 1985. Trinmar Ltd, founded when the government purchased offshore exploration assets of Trinidad Northern Areas Limited (TNA), a consortium of BP, Texaco and Shell, merged into Petrotrin in 2000

The 3 state companies evolved from international companies which first commercialized Trinidad oil finds in the early twentieth century- Trinidad Oilfields Limited , United British Oilfields of Trinidad, Trinidad Leaseholds Limited , Trinidad Petroleum Development Co , Apex Trinidad Oilfields and Kern Trinidad Oilfields.

 

 

 

India oil giant to help T&T with Petrotrin restart

2026, 02/06

Energy Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal says representatives from the Indian Oil Corporation are expected to visit Trinidad and Tobago to provide technical advice on restarting the Pointe-a-Pierre Refinery.

The refinery, formerly operated by Petrotrin, was mothballed in November 2018 as part of a restructuring exercise.   Moonilal yesterday said the decision for IOC to visit was agreed in principle during the India Energy Week in Goa from January 27-30 where he led a delegation and discussions focused heavily on the future of refining at Pointe-a-Pierre.

Beyond long-standing partners BP and Shell, the delegation held talks with several international companies on the prospects for restarting the refinery including the IOC, India’s largest state-owned integrated energy company, operating across the hydrocarbon value chain with ten refineries.

They have a wealth of experience in refinery capacity at refineries across Asia. The delegation indicated that there is a readily available local workforce to support the resumption of refining operations.

Moonilal said substantive engagement is expected to begin shortly.
“Into March, we’re expecting that Indian Oil and other partners would be in the region. Once they are here, they will attend to us and look at the operations, at the installations.”

IOC has not expressed any interest in acquiring the refinery.
“The issue of bidding or leasing or selling doesn’t arise at this time. What we can say is that we are in talks with particularly those with significant experience in refining, to assist us in the restart.

If we can get the assistance in restarting, it includes technical expertise, enormous comprehensive, internationally reputable firms to do technical and health and safety analysis , equipment asset integrity reports and so on. If we can get that type of support, then the next phase is financial restructuring and what options are available to the Government of Trinidad and Tobago.”

T&T’s delegation also met Reliance Industries Limited, which operates the world’s largest single-site refinery complex in Gujarat, India. Reliance is also being engaged to participate in the refinery restart process.

The delegation also held talks with ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies. While TotalEnergies has no major operations in T&T, it is active in Suriname and has shown interest in expanding its Caribbean footprint.

In August last year, the government received correspondence from the Office of Procurement Regulation indicating that processes undertaken by the previous administration in relation to a refinery restart were not aligned with OPR legislation. He said there were procedural flaws which rendered the process improper. However, organisations which expressed interest are still being considered.

“Those players who have expressed an interest already, they are still on the table. But we are in a situation where we are discussing with international partners and those with great experience, how we can get together.”

Companies that previously expressed interest in the Refinery include Oando PLC, Beowulf Energy, and the Oilfield Workers’ Trade Union-backed Patriotic Energies.

Although the refinery has been closed for seven years, a restart assessment report indicated that resumption of operations is possible, but would require significant work and investment.

India Energy conference was a major success. Discussions centred on rising global energy demand and T&T’s potential role in meeting that demand, with emphasis on the its position as a regional energy hub.

“During the entire week and particularly during panel discussions, the panellists and particularly representatives of the new emerging energy economies looked towards Trinidad and Tobago for leadership, for guidance and had enormous respect for our great history as an oil producer and an energy economy.”

Moonilal said the delegation promoted Trinidad and Tobago’s newly introduced energy accelerator hub as a mechanism to attract investment, alongside political stability, skilled workforce and fiscal regime. He reassured international investors that Government is prepared to introduce innovative incentives for multinational companies, while ensuring fair returns to the state.

Engineering firms from Houston which service Gulf Coast refineries expressed interest in opportunities in T&T. Discussions also highlighted upstream potential and Government plans to expand exploration in deep and ultra-deep marine areas.

“All of the international oil and gas majors were very pleased that ExxonMobil announced to the world that Trinidad and Tobago is now the gold standard in terms of doing business quickly and proceeding with pace to move quickly through negotiations to signing contracts and agreements.”

Moonilal confirmed that T&T has been invited to attend the Guyana Energy Conference from February 17-20. Caribbean Energy Week 2026 is scheduled for March 30-April 1 in Suriname.

Moonilal heading to India Energy Week

2026, 01/21

Energy Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal will represent Trinidad and Tobago on a global stage at India Energy Week 2026 in Goa, India, from January 27 to 30. The annual conference is a marque event in the global energy sector, drawing thousands of professionals, government officials and industry leaders from around the world.

Moonilal said, “Being invited to this conference is a significant honour. It is truly a global event, involving over 700 exhibitions and professional speakers, including fellow energy ministers and executives from major oil and gas companies in India and beyond.

“I look forward to the trip as an opportunity to promote Trinidad and Tobago as a premier destination for foreign direct investment, particularly in the upstream sector. We are working to attract investors and explorers to participate in further developing our oil and gas sector.”

The minister highlighted the need for renewed investment in the energy industry, noting declines in oil and gas production between 2016 and 2025.

India Energy Week in picturesque Goa, is expected to host an estimated 75,000 energy professionals, 700 exhibiting companies, 6,500 delegates, 550 conference speakers and 110 conference sessions. The event promises to showcase cutting-edge developments across the energy sector, particularly in oil and gas and to facilitate discussions on the geopolitical, environmental and economic challenges shaping the global energy landscape.

India remains the third-largest importer of oil and gas globally and is expected to maintain its leading role in energy consumption for decades. Delegates will address pressing issues, including environmental risks, economic uncertainty and supply chain disruptions, highlighting the need for innovative strategies to navigate an increasingly unpredictable global energy market.

 

 

 

Exxon to begin 3D seismic survey over
Ultra-deepwater block

21 January

The vessel assigned to collect 3D seismic data over the ultra-deepwater block off Trinidad and Tobago will depart Chaguaramas on Sunday, ExxonMobil said. The survey, initially expected to begin in the second quarter of 2026, will now get under way months earlier than planned.

In an advisory notice published in yesterday’s newspaper, Exxon said the survey vessel R/V Amazon Warrior will depart from Chaguaramas on January 25, heading to the East Coast Marine Area to conduct the 3D seismic survey across the deepwater TTUD-1 block.

“ExxonMobil Trinidad and Tobago Deepwater Ltd advises that the survey vessel R/V Amazon Warrior (IMO#9662394) will mobilise from Chaguaramas to the East Coast Marine Area (ECMA) to conduct a 3D seismic survey across the deepwater TTUD 1 Block,” the notice stated.

Exxon said the operations are expected to last between four and five months, though the company noted the programme could extend to as much as 180 days, depending on contingencies. The survey is scheduled to be completed by July 2026.

“Upon completion of the scope, the vessel will return to Chaguaramas for demobilisation,” it stated.

Last month, the Ministry of Energy said Energy Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal and Minister Ernesto Kesar met with a high-level delegation from the US Embassy and ExxonMobil to receive updates on operations related to TTUD-1.

“Exxon Mobil indicated that operations projected for TTUD 1 are on schedule and confirmed that the company has now selected a seismic acquisition vendor and expressed gratitude for the support and cooperation of the Government thus far as the company proceeds to ambitiously begin seismic acquisition within six months of the Production Sharing Contract (PSC) signing that occurred in August 2025,” a release from the Energy Ministry stated last month.

“The anticipated first shot window is projected for February 2026. The Energy ministers reiterated the Government’s commitment to support the project by optimising the necessary permitting and approvals processes, ensuring that there are minimal delays on the State’s end as it pertains to achieving the accelerated timeline for the execution of the minimum work committed by ExxonMobil.”

Last month, Exxon received the Certificate of Environmental Clearance from the Environmental Management Authority to do the 3D seismic survey spanning 8,825 square kilometres in Block TTUD-1. The TTUD-1 block represents consolidation of 7 previously separate offshore blocks, TTDA 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23, into a single ultra-deepwater area.

On January 15, Shearwater Geoservices announced that it was awarded the contract for the 3D seismic acquisition programme for ExxonMobil Trinidad and Tobago Deepwater Ltd.

“The deepwater survey offshore Trinidad and Tobago will cover approximately 6,000 square kilometres of full-fold area. The acquisition is scheduled to commence in the first quarter of 2026 and is expected to take around five months. Shearwater’s high-capacity streamer vessel Amazon Warrior will undertake the acquisition, utilising its multi-component Isometrix streamer technology. The project will deliver high-quality seismic data to support future planned exploration activities in the area.”

Ramps Logistics has been awarded the logistics contract.

 

 

 

 

Shearwater wins contract for 3D seismic survey

Shearwater GeoServices – 15 January 2026

Norwegian offshore seismic specialist Shearwater GeoServices secured a contract for a large 3D seismic acquisition programme offshore Trinidad and Tobago and will start acquisition in the first quarter

 

 

Shearwater Geoservices secures large 3D seismic survey

15 January 2026

Shearwater Geoservices has been awarded a contract for a large 3D seismic acquisition programme for ExxonMobil Trinidad and Tobago Deepwater Limited. The deepwater survey offshore Trinidad and Tobago will cover approximately 6,000 sq kms of full-fold area.

The acquisition is scheduled to commence in the first quarter of 2026 and is expected to last five months. Shearwater’s high-capacity streamer vessel Amazon Warrior will undertake the acquisition, utilising its multi-component Isometrix streamer technology. The project will deliver high-quality seismic data to support future planned exploration activities in the area.

Source: Shearwater Geoservices

 

 

 

Perenco completes revitalisation of TSP fields

January 30, 2026 Perenco Trinidad & Tobago

Perenco Trinidad & Tobago confirmed completion of its latest revitalisation programme across Teak, Samaan and Poui (“TSP”) fields, offshore southeast Trinidad. The programme, designed to simultaneously increase production and deliver more efficient and sustainable operations, entailed electrification and modernisation of the Teak field.

As part of the electrification project, a new high-voltage electrical network was established, extending from the Macarius power hub to Teak Echo and across all Teak satellite platforms via 28 km of subsea electrical cables.

In addition, high-voltage infrastructure was installed on the platforms, including nine new transformers and five new electrical shelters, enabling safer and more efficient operations for offshore teams.

The TSP fields have been producing for many decades and Perenco T&T’s ongoing investment is essential to continue meeting local energy demand and supporting economic growth.

Stéphane Barc, General Manager of Perenco T&T, commented : “We are committed to sustaining these fields, which have served Trinidad and Tobago well for half a century and have the potential to continue to provide energy to the country for many years to come. The electrification at Teak reflects our expertise in maintaining mature assets and represents the latest milestones in our ongoing investment into the country.”

 

 

 

Moonilal – government supports Perenco

2026, 01/16

In a meeting aimed at shaping the future of T&T’s energy sector, Government officials and Perenco executives discussed strategies to boost operational efficiency, drive innovation, and secure long-term investment. The talks underscored the country’s commitment to sustaining production from mature oil fields while creating an environment that attracts continued energy investment, the Ministry of Energy stated.

Updates were given on the recent acquisition of the Greater Angostura oil and gas assets, along with their production facilities as well as insights into the performance of existing operations, which include the Cashima, Amherstia, Flamboyant, and Immortelle gas fields, as well as plans for the Onyx field located in the Teak, Samaanand Poui area.

Discussions also highlighted the ongoing advancements, potential for improving operational efficiency, and collaborative initiatives aimed at further enhancing and sustaining investment in the energy sector .

Energy Minister Roodal Moonilal confirmed the steadfast support for Perenco’s efforts to prolong the productive lifespan of mature oil fields, while also creating a favourable environment for ongoing investment in T&T’s energy sector.

Perenco reaffirmed its commitment to working closely with the ministry to ensure ongoing collaboration as current projects advance and new opportunities emerge in the local energy sector.

In July 2025, Perenco confirmed completion of the acquisition of the Greater Angostura producing oil and gas assets and associated production facilities from Woodside Energy in T&T. Finalisation of the deal, combined with Perenco’s existing operation of the Teak, Samaan and Poui and Cashima, Amherstia, Flamboyant and Immortelle fields, aligns Perenco as a major oil and gas producer in country.

Perenco has been producing hydrocarbons in T&T since 2016, when it took over operatorship of the Teak, Samaan and Poui fields, located offshore south-east coast Trinidad.

 

 

Shell and BP Seek U.S. Licences for Venezuela-Trinidad Gas Fields

January 28, 2026 Charles Kennedy. Oilprice.com

Energy Minister Roodal Moonilal said UK supermajors Shell and BP are seeking U.S. licences to develop gas fields that Venezuela shares with Trinidad and Tobago, an LNG exporter. BP and Shell sought to develop two separate cross-border gas fields in Venezuelan and Trinidad and Tobago waters but progress was delayed by frequent changes in U.S. policy for international firms to do business with Venezuela.

In July 2024, Venezuela awarded an exploration and production licence to BP and partner, National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago, for development of the Cocuina gas discovery in the cross-border Manakin-Cocuina gas field. In 2025, the Nicolas Maduro regime halted joint development of gas projects with Trinidad and Tobago. In May 2025 the US Administration revoked licences for Shell and BP to develop joint fields.

In October 2025, the U.S. authorized Shell to develop the Dragon gas field offshore Venezuela to supply gas to Trinidad and Tobago,

After removal of Maduro in 2026, the international operators renewed efforts to secure licences as the US Administration urges major oil companies to develop Venezuelan oil and gas resources.

According to Minister Moonilal, Shell is working for a licence for the Loran-Manatee discovery, estimated to hold 10 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, most of which is in Venezuelan waters. BP is seeking a licence to develop Manakin-Cocuina.

“The United States is an ally and a very strong friend trying to reform, so we would help the companies when it comes to supporting their applications,” Moonilal said at an energy conference in India.

BP is betting on Trinidad and Tobago to boost oil and gas output. Last year the company approved the development of the offshore Ginger gas project, one of ten major new projects that the IOC promised to start up by 2027.

As of January 2026, Shell and Trinidad & Tobago are awaiting further US Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) authorization for the Dragon gas project, following earlier licences granted and extensions sought in 2025, as the project, involving exporting Venezuelan gas to T&T, navigates US sanctions and the political climate post-Maduro’s removal. Trinidad is actively engaging with the US for licence renewals or extensions, with Shell aiming for first gas by 2026 or 2027, needing longer-term US clarity for significant investment.

Key Developments:
2023/2024: T&T secured a 30-year license from Venezuela and an initial OFAC license from the US for the Dragon project, with Shell’s involvement.
Late 2025: T&T received new, shorter-term (e.g., 2-year) OFAC licenses and continued negotiations for extensions, especially after Nicolás Maduro’s removal from power in Venezuela.
Early 2026: Shell and T&T are pushing for longer-term US licenses to secure the massive investment needed, with T&T government briefing Washington on regional energy security.
Project Goal: To develop Venezuela’s Dragon field and export gas to T&T, with potential production and export starting as early as 2026 or 2027..
Current Status:The project hinges on ongoing US Treasury decisions, with T&T seeking confirmation and extension of the necessary OFAC licenses.Shell is awaiting certainty from the US to commit further capital for development, while Trinidad is lobbying for continued US support, as detailed in recent news from early 2026 and late 2025.

 

 

 

T&T Chamber urges phased approach to gas pricing

Ryan Bachoo – 2026, 01/29

The Trinidad and Tobago Chamber of Industry and Commerce advised a phased approach to changes in natural gas pricing following an increase announced by the National Gas Company . The Chamber is collecting information from members on cost increases linked to the 77 per cent rise in gas rates. The data will address changes in operating costs and effects on pricing, employment and exports.

Manufacturers operated under gas pricing arrangements set by the State as part of efforts to support diversification. Electricity and water subsidies also form part of the framework under which businesses operate. These measures are linked to growth plans that rely on partnership between the State and business.

The country faces adjustment within a subsidised system and reform is required. Changes to energy and utility pricing should occur through dialogue, with attention to competitiveness, jobs and exports.

Returns from reform should benefit citizens. Manufacturers account for about 1.5 percent of gas usage while employing thousands of workers across more than 100 firms.

Higher gas prices may affect consumer prices and exports. The chamber expects steps to improve output and management within government so added revenue does not support waste.

Policy options include tiered gas pricing by usage and sector, metering for electricity and water and staged subsidy changes linked to market trends to assist planning and investment.

The TT Chamber remains engaged with members, the Government and other parties to reach outcomes that reduce strain on firms and households. It will continue talks aimed at solutions that protect the wider community and members including SMEs .

 

 

 

NGC fulfilling finance mandate

2026, 02/03 -PANAMA CITY –

Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo rejected claims that National Gas Company chairman Gerald Ramdeen is acting unilaterally as the Government moves to raise natural gas prices and dismantle subsidies. Industry sources warn the heavy-handed approach to contract negotiations could force downstream manufacturers off the Point Lisas Industrial Estate.

On the sidelines of the CAF International Economic Forum in Panama last Wednesday, Tancoo rejected claims Ramdeen had become too powerful or was acting unilaterally, including accusations he was the sole driver behind efforts to extract about US$28 million in retroactive port fees from Nutrien.

“I don’t think Mr Ramdeen is a law unto himself. I think he’s fulfilling his mandate. The National Gas Company is not a gift to everybody.”

The State-owned NGC informed manufacturers that it will increase the price of natural gas between 60 and 70 per cent by the end of January, as it renegotiates several long-expired supply contracts at the Point Lisas and Union Industrial Estates.

NGC also raised the price of gas sold to its subsidiary Phoenix Park Gas Processors Ltd by 38.66 per cent, from US$3.75 to US$5.20 per million btu. Ramdeen defended the increases on the grounds that manufacturers benefited from heavily subsidised gas for over a decade and, in some cases, paid prices below NGC’s own cost of acquisition.

“When you take a product for granted, you don’t focus on efficiency. No Government before took the decision to bring gas prices up to production cost.”

Tancoo dismissed claims consultation was lacking, acknowledging Ramdeen’s style had drawn criticism but maintaining the direction was clear.

“He may not be as diplomatic but he’s going in the same direction we need to go.”

Tancoo acknowledged concerns from Trinidad Cement Ltd (TCL) and other downstream manufacturers over rising gas prices but said the increases are necessary to end long-standing subsidies that transfer taxpayer money to private companies. He urged businesses to reassess their operations and improve efficiency. The Government could no longer justify asking taxpayers to absorb those subsidies, especially in a period of tight gas supply.

“I am being asked to subsidise gas for a private sector company. Then I’m asked to pay twice, because the gas could have been sold at market value and generated foreign exchange.”

He insisted prices would remain internationally competitive even after the increases.

“Even with the adjustment, the price they’re paying is still lower than international gas prices. What we’re saying is simple: pay a fair price for the product the State is providing.”

On a panel titled The Growth Agenda: Investment, Productivity, and Production, Tancoo placed the gas pricing debate within a wider economic context, describing energy as a crucial but no longer dominant pillar of the economy.

The energy sector contributes about 30 per cent of GDP, while the non-energy economy accounts for the remaining 70 per cent, though energy remains one of the main foreign exchange earners. Many gas fields are now mature, with natural declines in production, prompting the Government to roll out new incentives to encourage deep-water drilling, onshore activity and the resuscitation of old wells.

As a result, companies including Shell, BP, EOG and Perenco signalled renewed interest, with several final investment decisions already taken.

“We expect about two billion standard cubic feet of gas to come on stream from the end of this year into next year and going forward.”

He said lessons from past oil booms shaped the current policy approach, pointing to the damage caused by Dutch disease when energy crowded out other sectors and left the economy exposed to price swings.The current strategy uses gas revenues to support downstream industries and diversification, reducing reliance on cyclical commodity prices over time.

 

 

Businesses can absorb gas hike

26 January

Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo believes the state-owned NGC impending 76 percent hike in natural gas rates for light industrial customers is an opportunity for businesses to streamline operations, to avoid passing on the cost to the public. On January 25, asked about Manufacturers’ concerns that the hike would be felt nationwide, he said,

“I think there’s a challenge now for businesses, including the TTMA, to look closer at their operational abilities, to look more effectively at their efficiencies and to streamline them to ensure that prices to customers do not increase.”

The minister defended the move, saying that NGC was trying to fetch a more realistic price for its product, which was heavily subsidised by the State.

“The TTMA has indicated that it will lead to an increase in their costs. Realistically speaking, if the cost of an input increases beyond absolute measures, the cost of the final product will increase. That’s logical. However, the price of natural gas was being supplied to these entities at a substantially lower price than it was being supplied to industrial sectors…what we are trying to do now is create a more realistic price range.

“There will be some objection, there will be some concern, we are in fact increasing the cost of an input, but bear in mind that the increase is specifically based on bringing it up closer to the price being faced by industrial customers and closer to the price of making the natural gas. The price of natural gas extraction is generally higher than the subsidised cost that TTMA was receiving.

“I think even at the increased prices, TTMA will still be in a better position than any natural gas user in any other part of the Caribbean in terms of the cost of natural gas.”

Expected to take effect at the end of the month, prices will rise from US$3 to US$5.30 per MMBtu.

 

 

EC hope for gas projects & Ultra Deep

January 26, 2026

“Drill, baby, drill” remains a powerful slogan but as energy policy, drilling alone does not set prices, guarantee energy security, or ensure long-term prosperity in a global, highly interconnected oil market.

On January 3, US forces removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, flying them to New York to face federal charges. Delcy Rodríguez has since been appointed as Venezuela’s acting president.

Shifts in Venezuela could breathe new life into the long-delayed Dragon gas field and the Manakin/Cocuina cross-border project.

Opening the three-day Energy Conference, Mala Baliraj, chair of the Energy Chamber, highlighted Trinidad and Tobago energy sector activity with a detailed map of ongoing projects.

“There are two projects on this map, where the major factor delaying execution is beyond Trinidad and Tobago’s direct control, namely the Shell/NGC investment in the Dragon field in Venezuela and the bp/NGC investment in the Manakin/Cocuina cross-border field. Recent changes in Venezuela might offer new hope that these two projects can move toward implementation.”

“These two projects also need to be seen in a wider context. Venezuela holds massive gas reserves in the region of 200 trillion cubic feet. Many of these are in non-associated gas fields in the east of the country including offshore in both the Patao, Mejillones, Río Caribe and Dragón complex to the northwest of Trinidad and the Plataforma Deltana area, off Trinidad’s southeast coast.

These resources are close to existing Trinidad gas infrastructure and from a pure economic and technical point of view it makes excellent sense for both Trinidad and Venezuela to use Trinidad infrastructure to bring that gas to international markets, as LNG or petrochemicals.”

Because the eastern Venezuelan gas fields are largely offshore and close to Trinidad’s existing service ports and logistical infrastructure, the service sector could play a key role in supporting their development.

“The concept of Trinidad being a regional energy hub is one that the Energy Chamber fully supports. Capturing, compressing and productively using these gas molecules will be a major technical and engineering feat but the global oil and gas industry is well placed to find economic and engineering solutions to these problems. With the existing Trinidad infrastructure and a downstream industry willing to pay competitive gas prices, this could be a crucial component to finding a solution.”

The downstream gas industry negotiates a highly challenging environment with shortages persisting for over ten years.

“While there is optimism ahead, driven by projects like Manatee and others in progress as well as potential future developments in deepwater fields or across maritime boundaries, the sector still confronts immediate difficulties. These challenges have significantly affected our members in contracting and service companies. It is crucial for the industry to unite and prepare to capitalise on upcoming opportunities. In that regard, we would like to highlight that businesses in this sector need stable, predictable cost structures if they are to plan investment, maintain employment and stay competitive.”

Last August, ExxonMobil signed a production sharing contract with the Government for the new TTUD-1 Block.

“Given Exxon’s unprecedented success across the maritime boundary in Guyana, this has understandably raised significant renewed global interest in Trinidad and Tobago. We have also seen the entry of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), into deepwater with bids on blocks TTDAA 24, 25 and 30. We hope those bids will move forward into an active exploration campaign soon.”

 

 

 

Energy sector optimism

2026, 01/27

Positive momentum is building in the local energy sector in 2026, driven by growing expectations as more oil and gas projects are scheduled to come on stream this year and in 2027.

Chair of the Energy Chamber Mala Baliraj, highlighted many of these projects in her opening address at the 2026 T&T Energy Conference.

“We have seen some projects being completed and moving to begin production, notably the bpTT Cypre project and the EOG/bpTT joint venture Mento project. Trinidad’s first grid-scale renewables project, the Brechin Castle solar farm, also began producing green electrons in 2025. These projects join others already in execution and working towards first production. These include the EOG/bpTT Coconut project, which is in execution with the platform being constructed in the TOFCO yard. bpTT’s fourth subsea project, Ginger, is on schedule to deliver first gas in 2027.

“The biggest project in execution is the Shell Manatee, set to come onstream at the end of 2027. By all reports, execution of these major projects are all proceeding as planned: important news for the downstream gas industry.”

The industry had been buoyed by the Government efforts to speed up necessary approvals to allow work on these projects, which was also a positive indicator.

“Getting investment decisions made on these and other upstream projects remains the most important element to secure the future of Trinidad’s energy sector. In recent months, the Minister of Energy placed a firm focus on accelerating approvals in the energy sector, culminating in the welcome news of the Cabinet’s decision to establish an oversight committee, the Energy Accelerator Hub.

“It is heartening to see a focus on this area and it aligns with our advocacy position over the years. The Energy Chamber remains fully committed to working with the Government on that process.”

“In addition to accelerating the approvals process, other changes could help investment decisions for some of the discovered but undeveloped fields. Fiscal reform remains an essential element for some fields, especially small and marginal gas fields where a tiered approach may be required.

These are policy decisions within Trinidad and Tobago’s control, and we look forward to productive dialogue with the relevant stakeholders.”

Touchstone Exploration’s Paul Baay agreed that the sector is in a good place, as the ministry’s acceleration of approvals had brought up the date of potential returns from the company’s recent drilling of onshore wells at Central Block.

“I think the key thing there is, because we’re onshore, some of our projects can get turned around quicker, like we can physically drill a well and get it in production much quicker than some of these big offshore ones. So the new Government is recognising that and helped us with approvals, like certificates for environmental compliance.”

“We drilled the first well. We want to drill a second well, really quickly. That used to be a nine-month process and it’s been shrunk down. Now it looks like it’s going to be literally a couple of weeks, maybe a month.”

The company could see some returns from that activity by the end of February.

“We drilled the first well in December at the central block, and that’s going to come on at the end of February. So you know that’s like, we’re not talking quarters here. We’re talking months and weeks from when we can drill a well to when we get it on production. Those are the kind of reaction times that the new Government is recognising and putting in place the necessary things that we see. So from our point of view, that saves us money and time. From the Government’s point of view, that gets molecules on quicker for all suppliers that need them.”

Shipping fuel

28 January

On the second day of the Energy Conference, Proman’s director of marketing and logistics, Hana Sukhu-Maharaj told a panel that global changes in shipping fuel rules will have real implications for the region. She warned that fuel choices are no longer driven solely by vessel technology, but by whether regulatory systems, safety standards and long-term demand signals are sufficiently defined to support billion-dollar investments.

“Fuel decisions are now depending upon not just ships, but infrastructure readiness, regulatory clarity, safety standards and long-term signals in terms of demand. Maritime activity is growing, the region is starting to position itself within this fuel transition, and of course this creates both opportunity and competition.”

T&T was uniquely placed to benefit from the transition, given its established energy expertise, strategic location and mature maritime sector but no single country or company could move forward alone.

The industry spent years discussing decarbonisation but still lacks the certainty investors need to commit fully.

“It feels like the fourth or fifth year running that we’re talking about this, but we can’t get tired. We have to stay the course. Policy drives investment and there is no truer statement than that.”

Proman operates across multiple parts of the maritime value chain, as petrochemical producer, vessel owner and charterer and invested in alternative fuels. In 2022, it launched its first methanol dual-fuel vessel.

“Four years later, I still don’t think we have absolute clarity as an industry. And it’s important to understand the maritime sector is not just facing a carbon issue; it’s nitrogen oxides, sulphur oxides, particulates. Methanol addresses all of these.”

While ammonia offers zero-carbon potential, regulatory uncertainty, particularly around toxicity, remains a major obstacle.

“We are not absolutely clear from regulatory bodies what their view is on toxicity and the use of ammonia as an alternative fuel.”

Ammonia also plays a critical role in global food security as a fertiliser feedstock. Highlighting the financial aspect, she said, “A methanol dual-fuel vessel can cost upwards of US$52 million. Fuel alone represents at least 25% of operating costs. This is a 20 to 30-year investment decision.”

Shipowners proceeding cautiously
In shipping, Michael McNamara, vice president of Carnival Corporation’s global fuel supply, said regulatory ambiguity produced a divided industry with a small group of “first movers” investing ahead of rules, while most shipowners proceed cautiously.

“There’s a small set that’s been investing in cleaner fuels for ten to 15 years, largely driven by their business model and customer expectations. But for most shipowners, they’re future proofing, building dual-fuel capability, without actually using those fuels yet.”

Shipowners are reluctant to commit to expensive fuel choices without knowing whether today’s investments will meet tomorrow’s standards.

“You’re building a vessel for a 30-year lifespan. The question is: what regulation are you adhering to over that 30 years?”

McNamara also highlighted the inefficiencies created by uncertainty. “We’re giving up massive amounts of real estate onboard ships just to carry tanks for fuels we may never use. That’s extremely expensive.”

On policy, Dr Dale Ramlakhan, country manager for HDF, explained that the IMO’s greenhouse gas strategy unanimously adopted in 2023 is built on three pillars:

• • • • decarbonisation from 2013 to 2050,
      • a level playing field, and
      • a just and equitable transition.

“What I gathered from that space is there are two groups: those who are purely on ‘We need zero emission fuels’ and those who say ‘We need fuels that are worth two zero emissions.’ So those are the two groups, and that’s the battle. It’s why all options are always going to be open.”

While the region adopts and creates policies to remain competitive and adhere to international requirements, Ramlakhan warned,

“We’re going to be impacted, because if the EU has regulations, and a ship has to leave the EU and come to us, it is going to meet certain criteria at this port. If they have to go across to Asia and there is a difference compared to the Caribbean, then you have confusion.”

This could mean the ship operator noticing they have to pay taxes on one side compared to no taxes on the other, which could lead to route adjustments.

“So instead of stopping off to your area, it might say, ‘I am going to seek my best route…to optimise my cost.’”

He stressed that in the region, 80% of trade comes through shipping.

 

 

 

NGC, EOG sign new gas supply contract

20 January

National Gas Company successfully executed a new agreement to supply gas to the domestic energy sector, with major upstream supplier EOG Resources Trinidad Ltd, subsidiary of US company EOG Resources. On January 16, the NGC said the execution of this agreement represented its concerted efforts to secure a continued and reliable natural gas supply for TT’s domestic energy sector.

“This milestone achievement reinforces NGC’s unwavering commitment to active collaboration with upstream producers to secure all commercially viable natural gas supplies.”

NGC chairman Gerald Ramdeen said the execution of the gas supply agreement followed the company’s recent acquisition of the Trinidad Region Onshore Compressor (TROC) asset.

“Both achievements are clear indications of the multifaceted campaign of work being undertaken by NGC to ensure the company has access to a steady and guaranteed supply of gas, and to restore the stability and profitability of our core business.”

The agreement marked a positive conclusion to negotiations between both parties and brought to fruition a mutually beneficial supply agreement.

The acquisition of the additional supply of gas to NGC represents a marked difference in policy and vision to that which occurred under the former administration, where projects were sanctioned and gas brought to market with a disproportionate allocation to the domestic market.

“A recent example of this failure by the former administration is the completed bpTT  Cypre project, that at peak will deliver 250 million standard cubic feet of gas per day, without a single molecule of that gas guaranteed to come to the domestic market.”

The new ethos of NGC and the Ministry of Energy was to ensure that such failures are not repeated, and exploration of natural gas resources must guarantee a proportionate allocation of gas to the domestic market.

The additional supply of gas will enable NGC to fulfill its contractual allocation to Atlantic LNG whilst making additional volumes available to its downstream customers.

“NGC’s efforts, through its negotiating team, led by acting NGC president Edmund Subryan, and supported by legal and commercial team members, continue to make headway in our unwavering pursuit of gas supply stability for our customers and increased value creation for the people of TT. There is still considerable work to be done, but we are advancing critical projects and deliverables as well as other key milestones, with the support of our Board and the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries.“

The Consolidated Energy Bulletin of the Ministry of Energy for the period January to August 2025, reveals that EOG Resources produced an average of 425 million standard cubic feet per day of natural gas.

That made the US company the third largest upstream producer of natural gas in T&T for the period. The largest natural gas producer for that period was bpTT with an average of 1.032 billion standard cubic feet a day and Shell with 523 million standard cubic feet per day. EOG Resources contributed 16.5 per cent of the total natural gas production for the first eight months of 2025 averaging 2.574 billion cubic feet per day, According to its financial report for the third quarter of 2025, the average price of natural gas that EOG Resources received in T&T was US$3.80 per million cubic feet compared to US$2.71.

 

 

 

NGC acquires ‘critical’ TROC facility

7 January 2026

 NGC STRENGTHENS STRATEGIC ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE THROUGH ACQUISITION OF TRINIDAD REGION ONSHORE COMPRESSOR (TROC)

National Gas Company announced acquisition of the Trinidad Region Onshore Compressor (TROC) from bp Trinidad and Tobago (bpTT). This means the potential for an unlimited flow of gas from upstream producers straight to downstream customers. NGC chairman Gerald Ramdeen said,

“This acquisition represents a most significant achievement for the National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited (NGC) and for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. Acquisition of TROC represents NGC’s new, bold and strategic vision to promote and guarantee energy security that will assure the best interests of NGC, our country and the investments made on behalf of our people.”

TROC is a critical component of TT gas infrastructure. It plays a pivotal role in maintaining line pressure, and optimising gas flow from upstream gas producers to downstream customers via NGC’s 56-inch Cross Island Pipeline (CIP), which traverses the country from Guayaguayare to Atlantic LNG facility in Point Fortin. By incorporating this asset into its portfolio, NGC will now be able to leverage its proven capability to enhance network performance. TROC allows NGC to:

• • • Unlock incremental volumes from mature fields by maintaining optimal compression. TROC will help sustain and potentially increase production from mature gasfields, extending their economic life and maximising resource recovery to the domestic and LNG markets.
  • • Improve system reliability by ensuring consistent delivery of natural gas to downstream customers by maintaining continuous flow through NGC’s Trinidad Generation Unlimited Alternative Gas Supply Station (TAGSS), thereby securing connectivity between the domestic network and the Cross Island Pipeline (CIP).
  • • Enhance operational control by providing greater flexibility in managing pipeline pressures and optimising throughput.
  • • Enable future growth by facilitatng integration with upcoming projects and support long-term sustainability goals.

Unitisation of the Atlantic Trains, negotiated in November 2024 by the last administration, led by the previous minister of energy resulted in “little meaningful or substantial benefit to NGC and the country,” without the availability of compression, of which NGC now has the benefit with the acquisition of TROC.

This failure resulted in NGC, at times, being unable to flow any gas into Atlantic LNG. This undermined any potential benefit that could have accrued to NGC and by extension the country, from unitisation of the Atlantic Trains.

Unitisation would have achieved very little for NGC without the guaranteed ability of NGC to flow gas uninterrupted into Atlantic LNG. That guarantee is now a reality by the acquisition of TROC.

NGC Acting president Edmund Subryan, noted “By acquiring TROC and bringing this asset under NGC management, we are reinforcing our commitment to operational excellence and ensuring that our customers and stakeholders benefit from a more resilient and efficient gas network.”

This strategic purchase underscores NGC commitment to enhancing the reliability, efficiency and sustainability of the natural gas network. Acquisition of TROC is central to re-establishing NGC as the leader in the natural gas sector in the region. NGC remains focused on delivering value to its stakeholders while advancing initiatives that support national development and energy transition objectives.

 

 

 

$1 billion bond sale

Bloomberg –  January 26, 2026

Trinidad and Tobago completed a $1 billion bond sale in the US market and will use revenue from energy projects and tax reform to repay the debt. Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo said the unsecured, 10-year bond with a yield of 6.7% was oversubscribed by about two and a half times. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. served as book runners. Given those revenue streams, Tancoo said the country should be

“in an appropriate, comfortable place to meet its financial obligations to repay the bond, rather than refinancing,” when it comes due in 2036.

The finance minister said there were 144 investors in the sale this year compared to 93 for notes issued by the previous administration two years ago. That level of interest

“reflects sustained investor confidence in the credit and improved risk perception of the government of Trinidad and Tobago.”

 

 

 

US $1 billion bond oversubscribed

2026, 01/27

The Ministry of Finance said that the Government’s US$1 billion 10-year senior unsecured sovereign bond attracted demand for roughly 2.5 times the final offer size. The oversubscription followed negative outlooks from both Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s, a reality that framed the transaction as a credibility test rather than a routine refinancing exercise.

The bond, jointly arranged by JP Morgan and Bank of America, carries a 6.50 per cent coupon and matures on January 28, 2036. The bond will pay investors twice a year on July 28 and January 26.

Proceeds will be used primarily to retire the 4.5 per cent US dollar notes due in 2026, with the balance supporting general budgetary needs. The structure materially extends the external debt maturity profile, increasing the average life from 4.1 years to 6.3 years and fully addressing the looming US$1 billion maturity due in August 2026.

For Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo, the transaction was as much about signalling discipline as raising capital.

“The successful issuance represents a clear validation of the sovereign’s credit fundamentals and new disciplined policy framework.

“Achieving pricing tighter than benchmarks, while also attracting an order book 2.5 times the final issue size in the US market, reflects sustained investor confidence in the credit and improved risk perception of the new Government of the Trinidad & Tobago.”

In the three-day roadshow, which began on January 16, the Finance Minister and Central Bank Governor Larry Howai engaged over 50 international fixed-income investors through one-on-one and group meetings. When books opened in New York, demand accelerated rapidly, with over 140 orders from high-quality accounts driving the orderbook to approximately US$2.4 billion.

Pricing ultimately compressed by 20 basis points from initial price thoughts, closing at 98.552 per cent. Officials said the deal is priced inside prevailing emerging-market benchmarks and about 54.6 basis points tighter than a comparable US$1 billion bond issued by Trinidad and Tobago in 2016.

Beyond headline pricing, the composition of demand mattered. The Ministry of Finance said the transaction drew 144 unique investors, up from 93 in the 2024 issuance, broadening the country’s exposure to long-term real-money accounts and reinforcing its standing among global asset managers.

 

 

 

US$1 billion sovereign bond issued in US market

2026, 01/26

Minister of Finance Davendranath Tancoo addressed the lower house during the second reading of the Finance Bill 2026 in the Red House.

The Government completed the issuance of a US$1 billion sovereign bond in the United States market on Thursday.

The bond was issued under a Rule 144A and Reg S format with a tenor of 10 years and a maturity date of January 28, 2036. The coupon was set at 6.50 per cent, with interest payable on January 28 and July 28 of each year, beginning July 28, 2026. Settlement is scheduled for January 28, 2026.

The bonds were issued as senior unsecured obligations of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago and are governed by New York law. The securities will be listed on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange. Joint bookrunners for the transaction were JP Morgan and Bank of America.

The Ministry of Finance said the issuance attracted subscriptions of about 2.5 times the final issue size. The proceeds will be used to fund the tender offer and related interest on the 4.500 per cent US dollar notes due in 2026 that were tendered and accepted, as well as for budgetary purposes. Minister Davendranath Tancoo said the transaction reflected investor response to the Government’s policy framework and credit position.

The roadshow was held between January 16 and 18, 2026, involving meetings with fixed income investors. The delegation included Minister of Finance Davendranath Tancoo and Governor of the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago Larry Howai. The Ministry of Finance said the issuance addressed the August 2026 external bond maturity and extended the average life of external debt.

 

 

Tancoo secures US$1b on international market

January 23, 2026

Trinidad and Tobago successfully raised US$1 billion through the issuance of a new 10-year international bond, set to mature in January 2036.

The bond carries a coupon rate of 6.5%, with interest payable semi-annually, and was sold at a discount to face value, meaning investors are expected to earn a slightly higher overall return.

The bond, denominated in US dollars, is unsecured and backed by the Government’s general ability to meet its debt obligations rather than specific assets. Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo is in New York this week participating in a bond show.

“There are several related matters pending. I will comment officially on my return home.”

A legal notice issued on January 12 confirmed that JP Morgan Securities LLC and Bank of America Securities Inc. were appointed as joint lead managers and arrangers for the issuance. The bonds were issued under the External Loans Act, which authorises the Government to raise funds internationally for general development purposes and repayment of existing debt, as it addresses elevated financing needs this year.

Last September, international ratings agency S&P Global Ratings revised T&T’s outlook from stable to negative, noting the Government faced an amortizing US$1 billion bond due in summer 2026.

In parallel, the Government launched a cash tender offer last week to repurchase its outstanding US$1 billion in 4.5% notes due August 4, 2026, which are listed on the Euro MTF Market of the Luxembourg Stock Exchange. The tender offer, which expires at 5 pm New York time today, January 23, allows noteholders to sell back their bonds at par value (US$1,000 per US$1,000 principal amount), plus accrued interest up to—but excluding—the settlement date.

 

 

 

US$1 billion bond

2026, 01/22 – Ian Narine ian@iannarine.com

Trinidad and Tobago appointed JP Morgan Securities and Bank of America Securities to arrange a US$1 billion international bond issue. The transaction, authorised by the Minister of Finance under the External Loans Act on January 12, 2026, targets qualified institutional buyers in the United States under Rule 144A and international investors under Regulation S.

A US$1 billion bond is due in August 2026. It seems straightforward that the current engagement is to refinance the bond due in eight months time. From all accounts, this bond is a “bullet at maturity” which means only interest is paid over the ten years that the bond was in issue (from 2016) and the principal is due in August 2026.

The GORTT either needs to refinance or draw down on the stock of US dollar reserves at the Central Bank or in the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund. Refinancing is the more practical option.

The next question is what yield will T&T need to offer to clear this transaction. The answer requires examining the country’s borrowing history, current market conditions and the uncomfortable reality that both major credit rating agencies now view our fiscal trajectory with concern.

Trinidad and Tobago currently has five USD sovereign bonds outstanding, totalling approximately US$2.96 billion. The evolution of coupons (interest rates) on these instruments tells the story of our changing creditworthiness and the shifting landscape of global interest rates.

In May 2007, during the energy boom, we issued US$150 million at 5.875 per cent for twenty years. The US 20-year Treasury yielded 4.99 per cent at the time, meaning investors demanded barely 90 basis points above the risk-free rate (the US Treasury).

S&P rated us A-minus with a positive outlook. We were, in credit market parlance, a solid investment grade sovereign with substantial fiscal buffers and minimal external debt.

By August 2016, the picture had changed dramatically. This is the bond that is maturing now. At the time oil prices had collapsed, the economy was in recession and both rating agencies, S&P and Moodys, had downgraded T&T. Yet we raised US$1 billion at 4.50 per cent, a lower coupon than 2007. How?

The US 10-year Treasury had fallen to just 1.51 per cent amid global monetary easing following years of post crisis stimulus. Our spread, however, had ballooned to approximately 299 basis points. Investors were willing to lend, but they wanted considerably more compensation for T&T risk, even though the overall interest rate to us was lower.

June 2020 presented an even more challenging issuance environment. COVID-19 had frozen capital markets; the Fed had slashed rates to near zero; and T&T sat at the edge of investment grade, with S&P at BBB-minus and Moody’s already in junk territory at Ba1. We issued US$500 million at the same 4.50 per cent coupon as 2016, but the underlying math was different: the 10-year Treasury yielded just 0.64 per cent, implying a spread of 386 basis points. This is the widest we had to pay in this analysis and shows that as the country’s fortunes declined, the cost of borrowing has gone up.

The 2023 and 2024 issuances reflected a normalising spread environment. In September 2023, we raised US$560 million at 5.95 per cent with the 7-year Treasury at 4.38 per cent. This was a spread of roughly 157 basis points. By June 2024, US$750 million came at 6.40 per cent against a 10-year Treasury of 4.32 per cent, implying a spread of approximately 208 basis points. The coupon rose because US rates had risen substantially during the Federal Reserve’s aggressive tightening cycle, but our country specific risk premium had actually narrowed from pandemic levels. That narrowing reflected stabilising energy revenues and the Government’s demonstrated ability to service its obligations without distress.

As of mid January 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yields approximately 4.17 per cent. The Federal Reserve, having cut rates three times in late 2025, now holds the fed funds target at 3.50 to 3.75 per cent. They are also being pressured by the Administration to lower interest rates further. The US Fed has less control over long-term rates, and this has proven stubborn, reflecting market concerns about US fiscal deficits and inflation expectations that remain above the Fed’s 2.0 per cent target.

T&T’s existing bonds provide the clearest guide to what investors currently demand. The 2034 bond, issued at 6.40 per cent, now trades roughly around 6.25 per cent. This implies investors are comfortable with a spread of roughly 208 basis points at the long end of our curve. The 2030 and 2031 bonds trade around 5.5 per cent, while the 2026 bond maturing in August, trades at around 5.90 per cent, reflecting its short remaining life and the certainty of imminent repayment.

The above rates are not quoted from a trading screen and are indicative. They should not be taken as investment advice. The purpose here is to demonstrate in a practical manner how the new issue can possibly be priced and offers no indication that this is how it will pan out. The critical discussion point is what has changed since June 2024. Both rating agencies revised their outlooks to negative, a key consideration for this issue.

A new 10-year bond would likely have to clear at or above where the existing 2034 bond trades. With the 2034 yielding around 6.25 per cent, any new 10-year must offer a premium to compensate for the additional tenor (two extra years to a 2036 maturity), the larger issue size (US$1 billion versus US$750 million), and the standard new issue concession that investors demand for taking on fresh paper rather than established securities with known trading patterns.

A reasonable estimate places the spread for this transaction at 220 to 260 basis points over the 10-year Treasury. With the benchmark at approximately 4.17 per cent, this suggests an all-in yield of 6.4 to 6.8 per cent.

This is not an alarming outcome. It is, however, meaningfully higher than our past experience. The negative outlooks from both agencies signal that investors will price in some probability of future downgrades, even if T&T’s fundamental credit strengthens. The positives are that the HSF, manageable debt levels relative to regional peers, and an unblemished record of meeting external obligations remain intact.

Bottom line
Refinancing is necessary. The 2026 bond must be repaid and doing so from domestic resources alone would strain liquidity and crowd out other fiscal priorities. International market access, demonstrated repeatedly since 2007, remains T&T’s comparative advantage among Caribbean sovereigns.

But terms of access have changed. We are no longer borrowing against the backdrop of investment grade ratings from multiple agencies with stable outlooks. We are borrowing with one agency at the lowest rung of investment grade and another in speculative territory, both with negative outlooks.

Every basis point matters: on a US$1 billion issue, 50 basis points costs an additional US$5 million annually in interest expense over the life of the bond.

The Minister’s decision to exempt these notes from local taxes and exchange controls is standard practice for international sovereign debt. It ensures the bonds trade cleanly in global markets and removes any friction that might deter institutional participation. More consequential is how investors perceive T&T’s fiscal trajectory over the bond’s ten-year life.

S&P explicitly warned that ratings could be lowered within six to twenty-four months absent meaningful steps to strengthen public finances, boost non-energy growth and maintain external buffers.

Emerging market debt has attracted significant inflows recently as investors seek yield in a moderating rate environment. If appetite is robust, we may price toward the lower end of the estimated range. If markets turn risk averse or geopolitical concerns flare, we could see yields push higher.

It is likely that we will pay more than we did in June 2024. The market has spoken through the secondary trading of our existing bonds and through the rating agency actions.

T&T remains creditworthy, but creditworthiness is not binary, it is priced on a continuum. The premium we pay today reflects accumulated years of fiscal slippage, energy sector decline and foreign exchange pressure that successive governments have acknowledged but not decisively addressed.

 

 

T&T to issue US$1B bond

2026, 01/16

Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo announced that the Government intends to borrow up to US$1 billion on the international capital market.

In a legal notice issued on January 12, Tancoo said the Government appointed JP Morgan Securities LLC and Bank of America Securities Inc as joint lead managers and arrangers for the issuance.

The bonds would be issued under the External Loans Act, which allows for monies to be raised externally for general development projects and to repay previous loans. It will be raised through the international capital market, where governments issue bonds or notes to large global investors.

Under the External Loans (Tax and Exchange Control Exemption) Order, 2026, signed on Monday by Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo, all payments related to the notes, including principal, interest, and other debt charges, will be exempt from taxes and exchange control requirements.

The notes will be offered to qualified institutional buyers in the United States in accordance with Rule 144A of the US Securities Act, as well as to investors outside the US under Regulation S.

In the report in which it moved its outlook of T&T from stable to negative last September, the S&P rating agency said, “The government will have elevated financing needs in 2026 as it faces an amortising US$1 billion bond due in summer.”