GUYANA –

CDB approves USD50 million Environment Loan

2 April 2026

The Board of Directors of the Caribbean Development Bank approved US$50 million in financing through its Second Environmental Sector Policy-Based Loan (PBL) — a comprehensive funding package that will strengthen the response to climate change and natural resource management. The Government of Guyana secured the major investment as the country continues to pursue economic growth while protecting the environment.

The financing will advance practical actions for resilience and development to benefit people and nature. The second PBL advances the Bank’s US$175 million two-loan programme for Guyana, which began with a US$125 million disbursement in July 2025. The loan is financed through CDB’s Ordinary Capital Resources and contributes to maintaining fiscal stability as Guyana scales up climate resilient infrastructure and environmental management systems.

CDB’s Director of Projects, Mr. L. O’Reilly Lewis, commended the approval, saying, “As Guyana continues to experience rapid economic expansion, this additional financing deepens our support for efforts to embed environmental sustainability into national policy and planning, ensuring that key reforms in biodiversity management, climate resilience and water governance are adequately resourced.

Reform actions covered under the PBL align with the Government of Guyana’s commitment to equitable climate finance through enhancing community climate resilience and livelihood opportunities.

These actions strengthened national institutions to better steward Guyana’s biodiversity, grounding decisions in improved data, modern monitoring systems, stronger interagency coordination.

They expanded restoration of carbon‑storing ecosystems, as well as upgraded socially inclusive early-warning mechanisms for public health and climate resilient water supply systems that serve coastal communities and are built to withstand floods and droughts.”

The second PBL supports Guyana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) 2030 and its obligations under international frameworks such as the Paris Agreement and the Convention on Biological Diversity.

The loan reinforces CDB’s focus on climate action as outlined in the Bank’s Strategic Plan 2026 – 2035, which prioritises protection of natural capital and increased capacity of Borrowing Member Countries to absorb and adapt to climate-related shocks. It also aligns with CDB’s Country Engagement Strategy for Guyana, particularly its focus on reducing poverty and boosting climate and disaster resilience.

 

 

 

Trinidad & Tobago-

CDB to Accelerate High-Impact Development

 

April 1, 2026

Caribbean Development Bank (CDB / the Bank) posted Mr. Alexander Augustine, CDB Portfolio Manager, Economic Infrastructure Division to Trinidad and Tobago to strengthen its on-the-ground presence, as part of its efforts to deepen engagement and accelerate development support.

This enhanced footprint marks a pivotal step as the Bank and the Government of Trinidad and Tobago advance efforts to strengthen cooperation, reinforce institutional collaboration, and drive progress toward the nation’s long-term development vision.

Mr. L. O’Reilly Lewis, CDB Director of Projects. said,“Deploying an in‑country presence underscores CDB’s commitment to enhancing our partnership with Trinidad and Tobago. It ensures we are better positioned to unlock high-impact investments and ensure stronger alignment between national priorities and CDB’s development framework,”

The partnership was further reinforced during an introductory meeting between the Dr. The Honourable Kennedy Swaratsingh, Minister of Planning, Economic Affairs and Development, and Mr. Augustine, which marked the official start of his six‑month assignment.

Mr. Augustine said, “CDB’s in‑country presence allows us to better understand national priorities, build deeper institutional relationships, and ensure that our support is timely and impactful. I look forward to working closely with our partners in Trinidad and Tobago to advance high‑quality projects that deliver meaningful and sustainable development outcomes. “

Minister Swaratsingh said,“The Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago warmly welcomes the assignment of Mr. Alexander Augustine to the Ministry of Planning, Economic Affairs and Development.

His extensive expertise will greatly support enhanced coordination with the Caribbean Development Bank and strengthen our ongoing partnership in advancing national development priorities.

We recognise the significant contributions of the CDB across key areas, including climate resilience, poverty assessment and institutional strengthening and we look forward to leveraging this collaboration to achieve more effective delivery of programmes and projects that benefit the people of Trinidad and Tobago.”

During his meeting with Minister Swaratsingh, Mr. Augustine outlined the principal objectives of his assignment, including:

1. strengthening CDB’s strategic presence through sustained engagement with ministries, agencies, and stakeholders;
2. supporting the Government in reviewing and streamlining the Public Sector Investment Programme;
3. assessing national priorities to identify high-impact areas of collaboration;
4. addressing implementation bottlenecks in the existing portfolio; and
5. contributing to capacity building within the Ministry of Planning, Economic Affairs and Development (MPEAD).

Mr. Augustine’s posting follows recent high‑level dialogue between the Government and CDB, during which both parties highlighted the need to address longstanding institutional and implementation challenges.

Trinidad and Tobago, one of CDB’s largest Borrowing Member Countries and shareholders, presents significant potential for expanded development financing across priority sectors.

The assignment is a key step in advancing CDB’s Country Engagement Strategy (CES) for Trinidad and Tobago. Following a June 2025 high‑level mission after the General Election, the Government and CDB agreed that an in‑country presence would be essential to guide the CES.

Mr. Augustine’s deployment will strengthen the Strategy’s analytic foundation and strategic direction, with progress toward completion expected throughout 2026. It will also enhance CDB’s responsiveness and positioning in an increasingly competitive multilateral environment where timely, well‑coordinated interventions are critical to achieving national development outcomes.

Over the coming months, Mr. Augustine will continue engaging stakeholders across government, civil society, the private sector, and development partners to advance a prioritised project portfolio and solidify CDB’s approach for long‑term partnership with the Government of Trinidad and Tobago.

 

 

Trinidad & Tobago –

CDB approves US$10M credit facility to boost SMEs

2026, 04/03

Barbados-based Caribbean Development Bank approved a US$10 million line of credit aimed at expanding access to financing for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Trinidad and Tobago.

The financing forms part of the Fourth Agricultural and Industrial Line of Credit for Development Finance Limited (DFL) and comprises a US$10 million loan from the Bank’s Ordinary Capital Resources and a grant of US$126,000.

The initiative is designed not only to improve access to finance for SMEs but also to strengthen institutional capacity and support sustainable and inclusive economic growth. The funds will be on-lent by DFL to businesses operating in key productive sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, tourism and energy efficiency.

The facility is expected to address persistent financing gaps faced by SMEs, enhancing competitiveness, supporting market expansion and generating employment opportunities. The grant component will fund capacity-building initiatives within DFL, including training in Environmental and Social Management Systems and the development and implementation of a Gender Equality Policy and Action Plan.

“These interventions will strengthen DFL’s ability to manage environmental, social and climate-related risks, while advancing gender-responsive lending.”

Division Chief in the Private Sector Division at the CDB, Lisa Harding, said the facility underscores the Bank’s continued commitment to private sector development in Trinidad and Tobago.

“Through this fourth line of credit, we are deepening our support to SMEs as key drivers of innovation, job creation and economic diversification in Trinidad and Tobago.

This project directly aligns with the Bank’s new 10-Year Strategic Plan by strengthening private sector development, advancing climate resilience and promoting inclusive growth—particularly by empowering women-owned businesses and supporting sustainable investments.”

The CDB said its support comes at a critical juncture as Trinidad and Tobago intensifies efforts to diversify its economy beyond the energy sector. With moderate economic growth and increasing demand for credit in non-energy industries, the Bank believes the project will play a catalytic role in strengthening private sector activity and economic resilience.

DFL demonstrated strong financial performance and governance, citing sustained growth in revenues, profits and assets, as well as a track record of successfully implementing previous CDB-funded programmes. The institution will be responsible for executing the project, with oversight from the CDB through ongoing monitoring and evaluation.

The initiative aligns with the Bank’s broader strategic priorities, including private sector development, climate resilience and inclusive growth, with a particular focus on supporting women-owned enterprises and businesses engaged in green and sustainable activities.

 

 

 

World Bank: T&T, Guyana, Suriname propel growth

2026, 04/12

T&T’s potential rebound in the petroleum sector and continued energy sector development in Guyana and Suriname, led to split foreign assessments of economic growth and recovery in the region for 2026 – 2027.

Projections note a significant distinction between growth expected in countries with major energy sector investments due to come onstream in the next 12 to 18 months, and those with traditional tourism-dependent economies.

In the Washington-based World Bank report, Latin America & the Caribbean Economic Update, with the subheading Revisiting Industrial Policy: Strategic Options for Today, released on April 8, 2026, this dichotomy was especially highlighted.

The World Bank assessment expanded this under the subheading A dual-track outlook in the Caribbean.  ” Oil-driven expansion of Guyana—and soon Suriname, and to a lesser degree Trinidad and Tobago—is widening divergence relative to economies that depend heavily on tourism. Jamaica is recovering from a devastating hurricane, while Haiti’s prospects depend critically on the success of new security initiatives.”
.

“Guyana’s oil-driven surge continues to lift the subregional average in 2026. T&T, another hydrocarbon producer, benefits intermittently from gas-related activity, but with a more mature production profile and without the scale of expansion in Guyana.

Suriname, while not yet experiencing an oil-led surge, is beginning to see growth supported by investment and expectations linked to recent offshore discoveries.”

For countries without significant energy sector prospects in 2027, the report said, “By contrast, growth in the rest of the Caribbean has been moderating as tourism-dependent economies face costs, and climate-related vulnerabilities.

The result is an increasingly dual-track outlook within the subregion. This widening contrast underscores the growing divergence between resource-rich producers and the remainder of the Caribbean.”

The T&T economy is expected to see real GDP growth of 0.7 per cent in 2026, but the World Bank suggests this will rise in 2027, with real GDP growth of 3.2 per cent. This places T&T’s projected growth ahead of Barbados (3.0), Grenada (3.0) and St Vincent (3.1); on par with Jamaica, but behind Suriname (4.5) and rapidly expanding Guyana (23.5).

Energy experts stated that the local sector is anticipating increased activity next year, as several projects are expected to yield significant gas production from 2027 onwards. These include Shell’s Manatee and Aphrodite projects; Manatee is expected to deliver first gas in 2027, when Aphrodite is also scheduled to come onstream

Ginger, a bpTT’s operation, is set to deliver first gas in 2027, as is Coconut, a 50/50 project between bp and EOG, anticipated to reach first gas in 2027.

Recent discussions between Venezuela and Shell prompted optimism that gas from Dragon and cross-border fields could further bolster activity in the sector in the future.
Shell outlined plans to process gas from those fields at the Atlantic LNG plant in Point Fortin

BP will develop Venezuela’s Cocuina-Manakin gas field on the maritime border with Trinidad and explore joint opportunities in the offshore Loran gas ‌field and other projects, ‌including ⁠the commercialization of gas.

Shell also expressed interest in Loran.
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar announced plans for a diplomatic delegation to visit Venezuela to ensure T&T secures its just share of cross-border oil and gas resources, signalling a renewed push to advance long-stalled energy projects.

The World Bank report raised geopolitical concerns. While tariff increases in the region were not as large as expected, it warned that several risks remain.

“Realising these upside opportunities requires complementary domestic reforms that reduce policy uncertainty, close gaps in infrastructure and human capital and strengthen institutions so that private capital can respond when global uncertainty recedes.”

These prospects coexist with downside risks, notably from renewed conflict in the Middle East, where energy price volatility could delay disinflation and weigh on growth.

 

 

Ali Seeks Energy Collaboration with T&T

April 10, 2026

President of Guyana, Dr. Irfaan Ali, told Trinidad & Tobago Chamber of Industry and Commerce partnership with Trinidad & Tobago must be mutually beneficial to maintain success.

On the theme “Strengthening Trinidad and Tobago-Guyana Energy Collaboration in a New Regional Energy Era”, he outlined an extensive plan designed to bolster the working relationship of Trinidad & Tobago and Guyana on government and private sector levels.

For partnership to be successful, there must be active cooperation by all stakeholders.

“We can’t come and say we want to manage the gas plan. It’s an opportunity you’ll hear about soon, but then you can’t bring two containers of lime into Trinidad and Tobago.

It doesn’t work, let us be honest. It is mind-blowing that we can’t sit in a room together as government and private sector and fix these problems.”

President Ali was adamant that there will be no meaningful cooperation unless the issues that currently exist are addressed.

“So let’s not talk about partnership and talk about coming together if we can’t fix these problems.

If you care about partnership, if we care about building consortiums, care about building a joint, and I can tell you that is the best way forward: a joint economic front between Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago, then we must care about fixing the problem, and let’s get in that room, lock ourselves up for 72 hours and fix the problem and come out the room.”

President Ali was asked if he was optimistic that the regional bloc will achieve its goals of full integration.

“We have to, there is no other choice. We have to make CARICOM stronger, make CARICOM work, results-oriented and we have to achieve results. We don’t have an option.”

 

 

 

PM to visit Guyana after meeting President Ali

2026, 04/11

After Guyana President Mohamed Irfaan Ali and Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar met at the Red House, the Prime Minister will make an official visit to Guyana following their talks yesterday. Both leaders agreed on a wide-ranging development, trade and economic agenda aimed at strengthening bilateral relations.

They discussed cooperation across food security, investment opportunities, energy integration, technology exchange, human capital development and security. They agreed on the establishment of a working group to remove barriers to trade and improve competitiveness between the two countries.

The working group will include representatives from the private sectors of both nations and will focus on addressing development challenges and opportunities identified. President Ali thanked Persad-Bissessar for support for Guyana’s territorial integrity and sovereignty in the Essequibo region dispute with Venezuela and expressed appreciation on behalf of Guyana.

Both governments agreed to continue close collaboration, with the aim of further deepening bilateral relations. President Ali was accompanied by his Minister of Natural Resources Vickram Bharrat, Minister of Public Utilities and Aviation Deodat Indar, Minister of Public Service Zulfikar Ally and Minister of Labour Keoma Griffith, along with members of his delegation and private sector representatives.

The Prime Minister was joined by Attorney General John Jeremie, Foreign Minister Sean Sobers, Minister of Public Utilities Barry Padarath and Minister of Energy Dr Roodal Moonilal.

 

 

 

Investment Council

11 April 2026

Trinidad and Tobago government announced President Irfaan Ali met Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar in Port-of-Spain and they agreed to establish a working group to remove bottlenecks and take advantage of opportunities between the two countries.

“It was also agreed that the Prime Minister would pay an official visit to Guyana and a working group would include the private sector of both countries to promote development and opportunities between the countries.”

The leaders agreed on a development, trade, and economic agenda for the enhancement of their bilateral relationship and greater integration of people and economies of both countries. Among the areas discussed during the President’ s one-day visit were:

1. 1. 1. food security,
      2. investment ,
      3. energy integration,
      4. technology exchange,
      5. transfer of human capital development,
      6. strengthening security and
      7. the establishment of a working group to remove barriers to trade and competitiveness.

President Ali thanked the Prime Minister for strong support for Guyana’s territorial integrity and sovereignty and expressed appreciation on behalf of the people of Guyana.

Both governments would continue to collaborate closely on the areas discussed in order to deepen their bilateral relationship.

President Ali was accompanied by Minister of Natural Resources, Vickram Bharrat; Minister of Public Utilities , Deodat Indar, Minister of Public Service, Zulfikar Ally and Minister of Labour , Keoma Griffith, along with other members of his delegation and private sector representatives.

The Prime Minister was joined by Attorney General, John Jeremie, Foreign Minister Sean Sobers, Minister of Public Utilities, Barry Padarath, and Energy Minister Dr. Roodal Moonilal.

President Ali told the Trinidad and Tobago Chamber of Industry & Commerce business meeting that both leaders plan to iron out bureaucratic issues which were currently hindrances to partnership.

“If we care about partnership, about building consortiums, building a joint economic front between Guyana & Trinidad and Tobago then we must care about fixing the problem and let’s get in that room, lock ourselves up for 72 hours and fix the problem,” said Ali, who mentioned prospects outside energy where both countries could develop through partnership, pointing to Guyana’s export of soya beans and T&T’s famous cocoa plant .

While he praised the ANSA McAL group for leading the way through investments in the petrostate, including a shopping mall, he lamented that there was no T&T consortium that had taken the opportunity to invest in gold.

The President was critical of the lengthy process through immigration in T&T as he suggested bureaucracy also hindered Caribbean Airlines full potential.

 

 

President Ali urges economic reset & deeper Guyana–Trinidad collaboration

April 11, 2026

President Dr Mohamed Irfaan Ali urges a bold reset in regional economic thinking, urging deeper, results-driven collaboration between Guyana and Trinidad and Tobago to unlock shared prosperity and global competitiveness.

Delivering the feature address at the Trinidad and Tobago Chamber of Industry and Commerce Annual Business Meeting Outlook 2026/2027 in Port of Spain, the president underscored that the long-standing partnership between the two nations must now evolve into a future-focused alliance grounded in innovation, integration, and strategic investment.

The head of state highlighted that the Guyana–Trinidad and Tobago relationship is deeply rooted in history, culture, and trade, from traditional “suitcase trading” to longstanding commercial exchanges, but stressed that the next phase must be anchored in forward-looking policies and competitiveness.

“This partnership cannot be advanced by inefficiency or by systems that delay progress,” he stated, adding that regional economies must be re-engineered to reflect real-world competition and global market conditions.

President Ali emphasised the importance of shifting from inward-looking development strategies to outward-facing, opportunity-driven models. He pointed to untapped potential in sectors such as energy, agriculture, and manufacturing, urging regional stakeholders to leverage capital, natural resources, and expertise to build globally competitive industries.

The president further outlined Guyana’s development trajectory, describing it as an emerging petrostate pursuing aggressive diversification. He noted that revenues from the oil and gas sector are being channelled into expanding non-oil industries, including agriculture, infrastructure, healthcare, and technology.

Among key initiatives, he highlighted investments in digitalisation, artificial intelligence, and the creation of a modern, efficient public sector to reduce inefficiencies and improve service delivery. He also pointed to Guyana’s leadership in environmental services, including the monetisation of forest carbon credits and the establishment of a global biodiversity alliance.

President Ali stressed that future-proofing regional economies will require sustained investments in innovation, human capital, and infrastructure, as well as the creation of stable, predictable policy environments that inspire investor confidence.

He encouraged Trinidad and Tobago’s private sector to deepen its engagement in Guyana beyond traditional sectors, calling for long-term, transformative investments that can drive regional food security, energy integration, and industrial expansion.

“Protectionism cannot and will not make us successful in the new world”.

“The only path forward is competitiveness, integration, and building a common platform that allows our region to thrive both within and beyond our borders.”

 

 

 

T&T can refine Guyana oil

2026, 04/12

The prospect of Guyana crude being refined in Trinidad and Tobago emerged as the cornerstone of a high-stakes energy blueprint unveiled by President, Dr Mohamed Irfaan Ali.

Proposing a potential reactivation of idle refining capacity, Ali confirmed his intention to engage the T&T Government directly on a collaboration for Guyana resources to fuel Trinidadian infrastructure.

This strategic shift aims to transform legacy industrial assets into a regional monetisation engine, signalling a move away from independent operations towards a deeply integrated downstream partnership.

Framing this integration as a non-negotiable response to a shifting global market, Ali told stakeholders and bankers at the annual business meeting and outlook for 2026/2027 hosted by the T&T Chamber of Industry and Commerce that the era of hesitation must end, as the economic cost of delay grows increasingly steep, requiring a disciplined, private-sector-led integration of cross-border gas and refinery assets.

Central to this blueprint is the potential reactivation of T&T’s idle refining capacity to process Guyanese crude.

Ali confirmed he is prepared to engage the T&T Government directly to discuss a strategy for Guyana light sweet crude to flow to Trinidad for refining , effectively turning a legacy industrial burden into a regional asset.

“I will be meeting the government,” he said about about refinery collaboration.

This move signals a departure from the “export-only” model, aiming instead to monetise resources within the CARICOM space to insulate the region from global price shocks and supply chain vulnerabilities.

The President’s vision extended beyond oil, highlighting a “cross-border gas architecture” designed to lead to total regional energy integration.

By linking the gas reserves of the Guyana-Suriname Basin with established downstream infrastructure in Trinidad, the two petrostates could create a new investment corridor that competes on a global scale. He emphasised that this transition cannot be driven by governments alone; it requires a private sector capable of rapid, disciplined execution to capitalise on these new synergies before the window of opportunity closes.

Willingness to explore refining Guyana crude in T&T renews focus on dormant refinery assets. While no structure has been finalised, the signal is clear: upstream growth in Guyana is now large enough to support regional downstream integration.

The strategic case rests on proximity, existing infrastructure and the potential to create value-added exports rather than raw crude flows, as Ali also acknowledged structural weaknesses that have historically undermined refining in the region.

“The president is considering investing in Trinidad’s refinery to refine some of Guyana’s oil. There is the potential for refining oil from land; they should allow it to be what they call the refining tragedy. It’s happening now,” he outlined.

The remark underscores a hard reality: refining economics are unforgiving, and without scale, efficiency and consistent feedstock, projects fail. Ali’s proposal suggests that a Guyana–Trinidad link could address some of those constraints, if executed with discipline and aligned incentives.

Cross-border gas must lead

Ali’s structural argument is not incremental, as he is promoting reordering of how energy is produced, moved and monetised across borders, with gas infrastructure acting as the anchor. That approach sits against tightening global competition, where scale, efficiency and integration determine viability. In that context, he warned that legacy thinking that treats oil and gas as standalone export commodities would not hold.

“We have to have a holistic view of the energy sector. I don’t believe that we should look at energy in the narrow form of oil and gas refining and selling. We have to look at how we deploy our energy assets to build a diversified economy, strong economies, more opportunities,”

The president also noted that this position extends to how gas is used—not simply exported, but embedded into industrial policy, manufacturing and long-term economic diversification. The logic is straightforward: energy is leverage, not an end product.

The implication for T&T is immediate, with mature gas infrastructure but tightening supply, and Guyana holding rapidly expanding upstream reserves, the alignment is commercially obvious but politically and operationally complex. Ali’s position is that the complexity must be confronted, not deferred.

“I’m ready. I can say I’m ready. We all know it is critically needed,” he said, referencing the proposed high-level engagement on cross-border energy collaboration.

Venezuela tension, dialogue still on the table

Ali also addressed regional tensions involving acting President Delcy Rodríguez, making it clear that while geopolitical friction persists, dialogue remains necessary.

“I believe in dialogue. We have explained what the challenge is. The minister volunteers in the dialogue,” he said, adding that engagement must be structured and timely.

The reference comes at a moment of heightened sensitivity around cross-border energy activity and territorial claims. While Ali did not escalate rhetoric, his position was firm: issues must be ventilated and addressed directly.

“And once those views are expressed and they are ventilated, the next step is to ensure that we continue that model that brings us closer together, that allows us to leverage the opportunities among each other,” he said.

Private sector must re-engineer or fall behind

Ali’s most direct criticism was reserved for the region’s private sector, which has been too comfortable operating within protected, inward-looking frameworks.

“If Guyana and T&T must present a partnership that is meaningful, gripping, innovative, that will propel our people to high levels of prosperity, we must have the discipline, the commitment, the maturity, and the will to make the changes that are necessary to advance this agenda,” he advised.

He pointed to inefficiencies that continue to undermine competitiveness, from basic border processes to energy pricing distortions.

“This agenda cannot be advanced by ordinary citizens spending hours to pass through basic immigration customs.

This partnership cannot be advanced by complaining of having power for industrial development at 6 cents per kilowatt, because it will not be competitive in the real world when the average price is 16 cents per kilowatt. We have to re-engineer our businesses in the real world, on the real competition and the real practical business empire.”

Capital, strategy and missed opportunities

The president drew a sharp contrast between how resource-rich countries deploy sovereign wealth and how Caribbean economies have historically managed capital. He pointed to models where energy revenues are used to secure long-term strategic positions—whether through global acquisitions, infrastructure or human capital—rather than short-term fiscal stabilisation.

“Take away a few of the large companies. Where are our strategic investments that guarantee food security, regional energy security, and regional climate security? “ he asked.

The critique extends to missed opportunities. He referenced past offers for regional agricultural investment that were not taken up, and questioned why capital-rich firms did not expand outward when conditions were favourable.

“We have so much liquidity in the system, and still so many islands are looking for capital for a long-term power purchase agreement on renewables,” he said.

Exploration continues, but integration is the test

On upstream activity, Ali confirmed that exploration remains active, with major international players already engaged.

“We have exploration going on with Qatar Energy, Petronas, and one other entity. “

Exploration alone is not the benchmark; the test is whether production translates into integrated economic expansion.

“If you are solving the known, you’re not doing anything exciting. In every equation, solving the unknown is where excitement lies,” he said.

This extends to trade routes, investment patterns and industrial policy, andthe region has been too slow to pivot.

“So we know one trade route all our lives, and we did not examine another trade route. It’s time for us, maybe, just maybe, to look at all the other directions and to see what we can accomplish.”

Future-proofing beyond subsidies

Ali closed with a warning against policy complacency, particularly reliance on subsidies as a substitute for structural reform.

“We have to future-proof our economies by investing in the economy of the future,” he said.

That future, is anchored in integrated energy systems, cross-border industrial linkages and disciplined capital deployment.

 

 

 

T&T holds the trump card in CHOG crisis

The case for a stronger regional future

April 18 2026

Timothy Hamel-Smith is a former president of the Senate.

The present controversy over the reappointment of the Caricom Secretary-General should not be the starting point for any serious discussion of the Community’s future—but rather the strategic value of Caricom itself.

Only after one understands why Caricom matters to the wider Caribbean does the procedural controversy assume its proper meaning. This is the test of whether the region is serious about building an institution capable of delivering prosperity, resilience and dignity for its peoples.

Caricom’s mission should be to raise living standards, expand economic opportunity, reduce the vulnerability of member states by pooling capacity where regional action is superior to isolated national effort and strengthen the bargaining power of Caribbean states in dealing with major powers, global firms and external shocks.

If Caricom is to be judged honestly, it should be judged against these practical aims.

• • • Does it help create jobs, widen markets, and support enterprise?
    • Does it make the region more secure in food, energy, health, transport and disaster response?
    • Does it allow scarce technical and regulatory capacity to be pooled?
    • Does it deepen the sense that Caribbean peoples belong to a community with shared rights, duties, and opportunities?

If the answer is weak, then the institution will struggle no matter how elegant its declarations.

That is why deeper institutional linkages deserve serious attention. A single regional stock exchange, or at least a tightly linked Caribbean capital market with unified oversight standards, could widen access to capital, improve liquidity, reduce duplication and help firms from smaller states raise finance on a more cre­dible platform.

Common regulatory frameworks for securities, insurance, payments and listing standards would strengthen confidence, reduce transaction costs and create a more investable Caribbean space.

Shared systems for professional certification, digital identity verification, customs interfaces, company registration standards and transport regulation could reduce friction across the region. Interoperable or pooled regulatory institutions in selected areas would also address one of the Caribbean’s deepest constraints: the scarcity of specialised expertise.

Small states often struggle to maintain top-tier regulatory, technical and supervisory capacity across every sector. Regional pooling would not only save cost; it could also improve neutrality, professionalism, and consistency.

Our people need to develop a sense of common brotherhood. A cricket team that regains its former international status. A student whose qualification is recognised regionally, a company that can raise funds regionally, or an investor who faces a coherent regulatory environment will begin to experience Caricom as real. That is how integration takes root.

The lesson for Caricom based on the post-Brexit relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union is clear: political separation does not eliminate economic interdependence. Mature regionalism is not weakness.

It is the practical recognition that neighbouring economies often grow stronger when they widen access, align standards and build institutions that make cooperation easier.

From a Trinidad and Tobago perspective, the argument for Caricom is economic, strategic and practical. Regional markets remain central to the country’s non-energy export performance. Caricom markets absorb a signi­ficant share of Trinidad and Tobago’s non-energy manufacturing exports and provide important opportunities for expansion. Caricom forms part of the economic architecture on which jobs, firms and production depend.

Caricom can be transformative if properly deepened. The challenge for Trinidad and Tobago is not simply to rely on a narrow group of established exporters but to broaden the base of competitive firms, strengthen regional supply chains and use the community as a platform for industrial upgrading rather than merely a protected outlet for existing products.

In a world of geopolitical fracture, supply-chain instability and intense competition among trading blocs, Caricom is both a destination for exports and a buffer against volatility, a strategic sphere in which domestic firms can achieve the scale needed for survival and expansion.

In this context, the Secretary-General controversy can be seen for what it really is. It is not merely a procedural dispute. It is a governance failure because it risks weakening confidence in an institution that the Caribbean can ill afford to weaken. Even if the reappointment could ultimately be defended as technically lawful, that would not answer the more important institutional question: was it handled in a way that strengthens the credibility, unity, and strategic effec­tiveness of the community?

Caricom should be exceptionally careful in matters touching the leadership of its Secretariat. The office of Secretary-General ought to stand above avoidable controversy. Any process concerning appointment or reappointment should therefore be explicit, orderly and incontestable in its fairness.

That means a distinct agenda item, proper supporting papers, clarity as to the recommending body, settled rules on attendance and representation, and transparent confirmation of the basis on which the decision was taken. A stronger Caricom remains indispensable to Trinidad and Tobago and to the wider Caribbean.

But if Caricom is to fulfil that promise, it must become more disciplined, more practical and more trusted. The real test is whether Caricom conducts itself in a manner worthy of the larger project it is meant to serve.

 

 

 

Sir Ronald Sanders Urges Secretary General To Step Down

April 16, 2026

As controversy continues to swirl over the reappointment of CARICOM Secretary General Dr. Carla Barnett, Antigua and Barbuda’s Ambassador to the United States, Sir Ronald Sanders, is now urging her to consider stepping down, warning that the dispute threatens further division within the regional bloc.

Sir Ronald believes Dr. Barnett’s resignation would help prevent further fractures within the regional body and allow integration efforts to move forward, after CARICOM Chairman and St. Kitts and Nevis Prime Minister Dr. Terrence Drew confirmed Dr. Barnett secured the required majority for another term during last month’s summit.

However, Trinidad and Tobago’s Prime Minister, Kamla Persad-Bissessar, challenged the process, raising concerns about transparency and seeking documentation, including meeting records and a performance review.

Sir Ronald said the ongoing dispute risks deepening divisions within CARICOM, warning that Dr. Barnett’s continued tenure could further strain regional unity.

 

 

 

T&T in Caricom

28 March

T&T Foreign Minister Sean Sobers outlined the allocations T&T contributed to Caricom and its entities, which equates to $127 million annually. Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bisses­sar said the country will reduce its annual allocation to Caricom, as it is the largest contributor to the budget since the inception of Caricom, which now stands at 22% of the annual budget.

The minister listed some of the annual payments made to major Caricom institutions:

1. • Caricom Secretariat— $35.5 million
2. • Caricom Development Fund—$25 million
3. • Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency—$1.4 million
4. • Caricom IMPACS—$16.1 million
5. • Caribbean Examinations Council—$10.3 million
6. • CARPHA—$14 million
7. • Caribbean Industrial Research Institute—$23.3 million
8. • Caricom Competition Com­mission—$1.3 million.

T&T remains committed to the revitalisation of Caricom, particularly the operations of the Secretariat, to ensure it is fit for purpose and responsive to the needs of the region.

Sobers said the T&T Government appreciated the importance of the Caricom market to the local and regional private sector, as T&T is the largest importer of Caricom goods and the lar­gest exporter to Caricom. The Government’s role is to safeguard the interests of citizens of T&T.

 

 

 

TT Central Bank signals major shift in five-year plan

2026, 04/08

The Central Bank of Trinidad & Tobago is preparing sweeping changes to the country’s currency, financial regulation and payments ecosystem, as it transitions into a new five-year strategic cycle aimed at modernising the financial system and strengthening economic resilience.

At the centre is the Currency Transition Programme, which will introduce a new Series 2026 TT$100 note by August, featuring the updated national Coat of Arms. The move signals the start of a broader overhaul of the physical currency, supported by upgrades to national cash-processing infrastructure.

The bank is also conducting a critical review of the 5-cent coin, with production costs now estimated at nearly five times its face value. A decision is expected later this year on whether the denomination will be demonetised, potentially following the path of the one-cent coin.

To support these changes, the CBTT will launch a nationwide public education campaign, “Know Your Money”, in mid-2026, aimed at ensuring a smooth transition for businesses and consumers.

These initiatives form part of a wider transformation agenda as the Central Bank prepares to implement its 2026–2031 Strategic Plan, which takes effect on 1 October 2026.

The plan, developed through extensive consultations with staff and external stakeholders, is intended to align monetary policy and financial sector oversight with evolving economic realities.

A key pillar of the new strategy is the modernisation of financial regulation.
The CBTT is moving to fully operationalise an enhanced risk-based supervision framework across the banking and insurance sectors, strengthening oversight in an increasingly complex financial environment.

This will be reinforced by the implementation of the National AML/CFT/CPF Policy and Strategy (2026–2029), designed to bolster compliance with international standards on anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing. At the same time, the Bank is accelerating efforts to digitise the financial system.

Legislative work is advancing on the Payments System and Services (PSS) Bill and Regulations, which will establish the legal foundation for financial technology innovation while enhancing consumer protection.

It notes that early gains are already visible, with registered e-money issuers such as WamNow Technologies expanding digital financial services across the country.

Regionally, the CBTT is piloting the Caricom Payment and Settlement System (CAPSS), a platform expected to streamline cross-border transactions and deepen financial integration within the region over the next year.

Internally, the bank has begun testing supervisory technology (SupTech), using digital platforms to improve real-time risk monitoring and data analytics. The pilot phase is expected to shape a full rollout of digital supervision, enhancing the CBTT’s ability to assess and respond to risks across regulated institutions.

The bank also reiterated its commitment to resolving legacy financial sector issues, including advancing the liquidation of British American Insurance Company (Trinidad) Ltd (BAT), with a focus on protecting policyholders and maintaining financial system stability.

The transition comes as the CBTT enters the final months of its 2021/22–2025/26 Strategic Plan, marking a shift from post-pandemic stabilisation to forward-looking reform.

Over the past six months, the Bank expanded its regional engagement, highlighted by its participation in the CAF—Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean.

On October 10 last year, Governor Larry Howai presided over the 186th board of directors meeting of CAF, the first time the institution convened at that level in the English-speaking Caribbean.

 

 

 

CARICOM delegation to Suriname, holds talks in Guyana

7 April 2026

Terrance Drew, Prime Minister of St Kitts-Nevis, will travel on official business as Chair of the Caribbean Community, leading a CARICOM delegation to Suriname at the funeral of former President His Excellency Chan Santokhi.

The Prime Minister’s participation underscores the enduring bonds of solidarity within the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), as regional leaders honor a distinguished statesman whose service extended beyond Suriname.

Following engagements in Suriname, Prime Minister Drew will travel to Guyana for high-level bilateral discussions with President Irfaan Ali. The meetings are expected to result in the signing of several Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) aimed at strengthening cooperation between Saint Kitts and Nevis and Guyana.

Prime Minister Drew emphasized the significance of the upcoming agreements, noting that the MOUs will provide a structured framework for collaboration across multiple priority areas of national and regional development.

The agreements will focus on seven strategic pillars, reflecting a comprehensive and forward-looking approach to partnership. Key among these is food security, as both nations seek to enhance agricultural production, reduce reliance on food imports, and build resilience in the face of global supply chain challenges.

 

 

 

Caribbean Energy Week

2026, 04/01

Officials from El Dorado Offshore and Ramps Logistics met Minister in the Energy Ministry Ernesto Kesar in Paramaribo during Caribbean Energy Week March 30- April 1.

CEO Shaun Rampersad hosted talks at the company’s Suriname office which featured Sarona Samaroo, VP El Dorado Offshore, Mike Resomardono, Ramps Logistics Suriname country manager, members of the companies’ Suriname team, Weatherford and other Trinidad and Tobago service providers and professionals active in Suriname’s oil and gas sector.

The meeting reflected continued support for the growth and development of Suriname’s energy industry and reinforced the value of practical engagement, regional presence and direct dialogue among stakeholders  in the sector.

Discussions were aligned with the wider national direction being advanced under Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar, as Trinidad and Tobago continues to strengthen its position as a serious, outward-facing player in the regional energy landscape.

Sarona Samaroo said “The Caribbean is at an important stage of development, and progress will depend on how deliberately we align experience, capability, and opportunity to support sustainable growth across the region.”

Held during one of the region’s most important energy gatherings, the meeting reinforced a clear point: regional progress depends on opportunity, sustained engagement, credible partnerships, and the ability to contribute in practical ways.

 

 

CARICOM Technical Experts Advance Regional Ocean Policy in Guyana

March 31, 2026

Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Secretariat, Turkeyen, Greater Georgetown, Guyana)

Technical experts gathered in Georgetown, Guyana on March 25, 2026, for the Third Meeting of the Technical Advisory Group of CARICOM Institutions on Ocean Matters (TAGCOM). Held in the margins of the 124th Special COTED-Environment and Sustainable Development, this pivotal one-day working session, focused on advancing regional coherence for ocean governance, through the review and implementation of the draft CARICOM Ocean Policy (COP).

Funded by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (UKFCDO), the meeting serves as a critical step in overcoming fragmented, siloed approaches to marine management. TAGCOM, established to provide coordinated, ecosystem-based technical guidance, is positioned as the central “engine” for guiding the Policy’s implementation across the region.

“This session allowed TAGCOM to deliver targeted, high-value inputs that will shape the finalization of the Policy and begin crafting of its Implementation Plan,” stated Mr. Kareem Sabir, Deputy Programme Manager, Sustainable Development at the CARICOM Secretariat. Key objectives included:

Technical Validation: Conducting a structured review of the draft Policy’s vision, goals, and strategic pillars.
Policy Alignment: Ensuring the new framework harmonizes with existing regional policies, such as the Caribbean Community Common Fisheries Policy (CCCFP) and the Eastern Caribbean Regional Ocean Policy (ECROP), to avoid duplication of mandates.
Implementation Mapping: Defining institutional roles and sequencing priority actions for the first 24 months of the Policy.

The TAGCOM was chaired by the CARICOM Secretariat with participating institutions,

1. the OECS Commission;
2. Caribbean Regional Fisheries Mechanism (CRFM),
3. Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute (CARDI),
4. Caribbean Public Health Agency (CARPHA),
5. Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (CCREEE),
6. CARICOM Implementation Agency for Crime and Security (IMPACS),
7. Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO) and
8. The University of the West Indies (The UWI).

The outcomes of this session, including consolidated recommendations and a preliminary alignment map, will help shape the second draft of the CARICOM Ocean Policy.

About TAGCOM: The Technical Advisory Group of CARICOM Institutions on Ocean Matters (TAGCOM) provides overarching policy guidance to Member States on emerging issues of importance in regional ocean spaces and supports the development of comprehensive maritime and ocean policies.

 

 

 

 

Gobin appointed to UN science group for 2027 SDG report

2026, 04/15

Secretary-General António Guterres appointed Professor Judith Gobin of Trinidad to a group of scientists to prepare the Global Sustainable Development Report for 2027. The report is produced every four years to inform deliberations at the Sustainable Development Goals Summit at the General Assembly.

Gobin retired from the University of the West Indies St Augustine in August 2024 and continues work in ocean governance at local, regional and international levels. She serves as Technical Expert supporting development of a Caribbean Ocean Policy Framework for CARICOM.

The project supports Small Island Developing States in aligning national priorities with global ocean governance commitments. Her work includes support for institutional, legal and technical capacity linked to implementation of the UN Agreement on Marine Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction.

Member states decided in 2016 that the Global Sustainable Development Report would be prepared by an independent group of scientists appointed by the Secretary-General. The group includes 15 experts from different disciplines and institutions with geographic and gender balance. The report supports review of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

Gobin will contribute to the 2027 report, scheduled for release in September 2027. The report will be presented ahead of the High-level Political Forum on Sustainable Development under the General Assembly. The United Nations stated that the report supports assessment of progress and identifies pathways across social, environmental and economic development.

A Marine Scientist and specialist in ocean governance, Gobin contributes research for policy support and regional collaboration. The Caribbean Ocean Policy Framework under development by CARICOM forms part of regional efforts to coordinate ocean governance. The United Nations Agreement on Marine Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction addresses conservation and use of marine biodiversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction.

The 2027 report will be the final Global Sustainable Development Report before 2030.

 

 

 

T&T banks nearly $44M in compensation for Tobago oil spill

2026, 04/03

The International Oil Pollution Compensation (IOPC) Fund revealed that it disbursed TT$43,974,688 in compensation to local entities as of December 31, 2025, following the oil spill from the barge Gulfstream, which ran aground off Tobago in February 2024. The figures were detailed in the IOPC’s 2025 report.

Former Energy Minister Stuart Young, who led the past government’s response to the incident, said yesterday, “Thankfully, the former PNM Cabinet saw the merit in sending me to personally lead a team to the UK, where I advocated on behalf of Trinidad and Tobago at the IOPC on two occasions.

This ensured a decision was made in our favour, allowing us to access the fund’s compensation mechanisms. There were legal hurdles we had to overcome to obtain the order we did.

I’m happy to note today that Trinidad and Tobago has recovered, and continues to recover, significant sums of money related to the oil spill.”

On February 5, 2024, the barge Gulfstream—formerly the Sea Emperor—with a gross tonnage of 4,925 GRT, ran aground and capsized near Cove Reef in Tobago while carrying crude oil. A report from Oil Spill Response Ltd (OSRL) stated that the “ghost barge” had been towed by the runaway tug Solo Creed from Panama to Guyana.

The tug’s crew released the barge after it began listing, and after drifting for three days, it ran aground off Tobago’s south coast. The spill affected surrounding areas, including Kilgwyn Bay, Canoe Bay, and Scarborough.

According to the IOPC report, the barge discharged an estimated 4,652 metric tonnes of fuel oil along Tobago’s coast—equivalent to over 50,000 barrels—contaminating mangroves, reefs and beaches, and causing long-term ecological damage. Fishing, tourism, and local business activity were severely impacted, and oil drifted to Bonaire.

The Energy Ministry, then under Young, assisted the Tobago House of Assembly’s Tobago Emergency Management Agency (TEMA) in mobilising resources to manage the emergency. Efforts included containing the spill, cleaning affected areas, draining oil from the barge and refloating it—a process completed by August 2024. The barge was then sailed to Trinidad and anchored at Sea Lots.

The past government sought compensation from the IOPC for those affected and launched efforts to track the tug and pursue legal action against its owners. In May 2024, the tug was arrested in Angola for breaching oil field exclusion zones and remained anchored in Luanda Bay. However, the IOPC report noted that the tug escaped from arrest in November 2024 and “remains at large.”

As of December 31, 2025, the IOPC’s 1992 Fund Focal Point Office in Trinidad—established in June 2024— received 357 claims totalling US$48.5 million. These claims related to clean-up operations in Tobago and Bonaire, and the fisheries sector.

Of these, 236 claims were assessed, with TT$29,803,751 in payments made. The Fund continues to engage with potential claimants and local authorities to ascertain the full extent of losses, with total compensation paid reaching TT$43,974,688.

IOPC Claims Manager Mark Homan noted, “There have been many ambiguities and uncertainties since the incident, and despite ongoing investigations, there remains a lack of definitive information regarding the true ownership of the Gulfstream due to unverified documentation submitted to the registry.

This has affected the handling of the incident, but not the processing of claims. Despite the absence of an insurer, the IOPC Fund has served the victims in Trinidad and Tobago and paid compensation in accordance with the Convention.

With the assistance of local authorities, we have already been able to swiftly assess and pay a substantial proportion of the clean-up claims submitted.”

 

 

 

US allows Russian tanker to reach Cuba amid energy blockade

March 30th 2026

The USA authorized the passage of a Russian tanker loaded with crude bound for Cuba, in the first easing of the de facto energy blockade Washington imposed on the island since the start of the year.

Russian-flagged Anatoly Kolodkin, owned by state shipping company Sovcomflot, departed the port of Primorsk carrying an estimated 650,000 to 730,000 barrels of crude. Ship tracking data showed the vessel off Cuba’s eastern tip on Sunday after entering the island’s exclusive economic zone.

It is expected to dock at the port of Matanzas on Tuesday, in what would be Cuba’s first oil import in over three months. The reason the U.S. Coast Guard allowed the vessel through has not been clarified. Blocking the tanker by force could have raised tensions at sea with Russia.

The shipment will provide significant relief to the island, which is enduring a severe energy crisis marked by widespread blackouts and gasoline rationing. President Miguel Díaz-Canel said Cuba had no oil imports for  three months. The crisis worsened after the ouster of Nicolás Maduro in January, which severed the preferential Venezuelan supply on which Cuba depended.

The Anatoly Kolodkin is sanctioned by the USA, the European Union and the United Kingdom. The US administration temporarily eased sanctions on Russia to improve the flow of crude on world markets following disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.

Russia announced weeks earlier that it was considering sending crude to Cuba on humanitarian grounds, though the decision amounted to a direct challenge to Washington. The vessel initially declared a generic destination when it set sail on March 8 and was escorted by a Russian warship through European waters.

The authorization comes days after Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the White House is seeking a change of leadership on the island. “The Cuban economy needs to change, and its economy cannot change unless its system of government changes.”

Trump also said that day that after Venezuela’s fall and the attack on Iran, “Cuba will be next.”

 

 

 

Dominica: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2026 Article IV Mission

March 27, 2026

A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.

Washington, DC: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team, led by Mr. Christopher Faircloth, visited Roseau and held discussions on the 2026 Article IV consultation with Dominica’s authorities during March 16–26. At the end of the consultation, the mission issued the following statement, which summarizes its main conclusions and recommendations.

Dominica’s economic expansion continued. Real GDP growth accelerated to 4.5 percent in 2025 from 3.5 percent in 2024, supported by robust tourism (36 percent above pre-pandemic levels) and targeted development investments. Inflation continued to ease, averaging 2.3 percent in 2025. The current account (CA) deficit remained elevated relative to its estimated norm at 38 percent of GDP in 2025, primarily reflecting high construction-related imports.

Strong execution of macro-critical projects— including resilient roads and geothermal transmission lines—interrupted the steady fiscal adjustment of recent years by contributing to a widening of the primary deficit to 4½ percent of GDP in FY2024/25.

While public debt has declined sharply from its post-pandemic peak of 118 percent of GDP, it remains high at an estimated 103 percent of GDP this fiscal year and well above the 60 percent regional benchmark. The financial system remains stable and liquid, with bank credit growth strengthening modestly to 1.6 percent in 2025. Banks are adequately capitalized, though sovereign and overseas exposures remain elevated alongside persistently high non-performing loan (NPL) ratios.

The credit union sector continues to expand—now accounting for 53 percent of total private sector credit—amid high NPLs, limited provisioning buffers, and sector-wide capitalization levels below regulatory requirements, albeit with considerable heterogeneity across institutions.

Growth momentum is expected to ease over the medium term, with risks tilted to the downside. Real GDP growth is projected to average 3.0 percent in 2026–27, supported by continued strategic investment in flagship infrastructure projects, before gradually slowing to around 2 percent as construction winds down.

The CA deficit is expected to return to its norm by 2031, on the back of stronger tourism, a normalization of investment-related imports, and lower energy-related fuel import needs accompanying the transition to geothermal energy. Under current policies, the primary balance is projected to improve from an estimated surplus of 0.7 percent of GDP this year to 1.0 percent in the next fiscal year (FY2026/27), before gradually rising to 2 percent by FY2030/31

On this basis, public debt declines steadily to around 70 percent of GDP by 2035, remaining above the currency union’s prudential benchmark. Under this baseline, debt continues to be assessed as sustainable but at high risk of debt distress. Overall, risks to the outlook are elevated and tilted to the downside, driven by spillovers from the war in the Middle East, heightened geopolitical and trade tensions, uncertainty surrounding CBI inflows, and persistent natural disaster threats.

Additional fiscal consolidation is needed to reduce debt vulnerabilities, reinforce the currency union, and strengthen disaster resilience. The current fiscal path falls short of the minimum 2 percent primary surplus required from next fiscal year under Dominica’s Fiscal Rule, which must be maintained until the debt ratio falls below 60 percent.

At the same time, the multilayered Disaster Resilience Strategy calls for accumulating 12 percent of GDP in contingent self-insurance against small but frequent disaster events. Staff assesses that achieving these dual fiscal resilience objectives requires phasing in roughly EC$60 million in total additional consolidation over the next two fiscal years to reach and sustain a 3.4 percent of GDP primary surplus from FY2027/28. Roughly half of this adjustment (EC$25 million or 1.1 percent of GDP) should be implemented next fiscal year to comply with the fiscal rule’s primary surplus floor. Consolidation should focus on strengthening the non-CBI fiscal balance while preserving space for critical social spending and growth-enhancing public investment. Stronger fiscal adjustment would help reduce debt and external imbalances and mitigate risks to the financial sector from its sovereign exposure.

A multipronged strategy to broaden revenues and rationalize spending can reduce fiscal imbalances while safeguarding priority investments to support resilient and inclusive growth. On the revenue side, reforms to reduce reliance on CBI revenues—including limiting discretionary import duty exemptions, enhancing VAT yields, introducing a solid waste fee, and strengthening tax administration and compliance—remain priorities. On the expenditure side, optimizing goods and services spending alongside improved targeting of large social programs can generate savings.

This will require refocusing existing programs toward higher-impact uses, including redesigning the National Employment Program (NEP) into a skills-based, time-bound revolving training program, and recalibrating the housing program with clear eligibility criteria, means testing, and cost recovery mechanisms. Tariff adjustments for selected public services would reduce transfers and limit the build-up of contingent liabilities. Enhancing the targeting and efficiency of the social safety net—including through a centralized beneficiary registry and digital payment system—would strengthen sustainability and effectiveness while creating fiscal space. Pension reforms should also proceed to safeguard long-term system sustainability and mitigate fiscal risks, including by increasing contribution rates, reducing replacement rates, and aligning the retirement age at 65 for all employees.

Addressing balance sheet vulnerabilities, modernizing regulatory frameworks, and easing longstanding structural constraints to support sustainable credit growth remain key priorities. Safeguarding financial stability requires strict enforcement of provisioning and NPL standards, improved loan management and disposal of impaired assets, and close monitoring of sovereign and overseas exposures in banks. For credit unions, where regulatory and supervisory frameworks have not kept pace with sector growth, reforms should strengthen risk-based capital, provisioning, and loan classification frameworks, alongside enhanced enforcement powers, to ensure bank-comparable risk monitoring and mitigation in systemically important institutions.

These regulatory enhancements should be complemented by the timely completion of the ongoing asset quality review of the credit union sector and Dominica’s Agriculture Industrial and Development Bank, to obtain a detailed picture of balance sheet resilience and elaborate corrective measures as needed. Full participation in the ECCB’s regional initiative on minimum regulatory standards for non-bank financial institutions would help further level the supervisory framework and reinforce financial stability. Subdued and uneven credit growth despite ample liquidity underscores the need to reduce persistent credit market frictions, including by strengthening credit information systems, streamlining loan documentation, modernizing collateral, foreclosure, and bankruptcy frameworks, facilitating resolution of long-dated NPLs, and expanding financial-literacy initiatives. In this context, full participation by banks and credit unions in the regional credit bureau, alongside enhanced coordination between the Eastern Caribbean Partial Credit Guarantee Corporation and national programs to expand small business access to finance, is encouraged.

A wide-ranging structural reform agenda is needed to strengthen economic resilience and ease impediments to growth potential. Improving trade integration and connectivity could diversify risks, lower costs, and broaden economic opportunities. Ongoing and planned infrastructure upgrades to expand air arrival and port capacity should ease connectivity constraints over the medium term. In the near term, improving institutional efficiency—domestically and regionally—is a priority, including through harmonized and streamlined customs procedures, a unified single-window platform, and mutual recognition agreements. In parallel, reforms should address well-known bottlenecks to innovation and skills development by strengthening digital infrastructure, modernizing education and vocational training systems to better align with labor market needs, improving the business environment through modern administrative and legal processes, and strengthening institutional frameworks to scale up productive and efficient capital investment.

Reducing risks to development financing is critical, notably through the CBI program, where important measures have already been implemented to strengthen governance and due diligence. However, there is scope for further improvements to reinforce security protocols (such as through biometrics and enhanced residency requirements), address weaknesses in CBI data reporting, and strengthen accountability frameworks.

Institutional frameworks should be enhanced to better support policy formulation, monitoring, and implementation. Persistent weaknesses in public financial management systems risk compromising the operationalization of the fiscal rule and disaster self-insurance mechanisms, underscoring the need for more frequent fiscal disclosure and strengthened internal reporting frameworks, including structured data compilation protocols and modern data dissemination systems.

The Fiscal Responsibility Committee mandated under the fiscal rule should be established in line with international best practice. Budget architecture should also be reconfigured to support implementation. In particular, fiscal policy should be (i) anchored in an articulated and credible medium-term fiscal framework consistent with fiscal resilience objectives and supported by clearly defined revenue and expenditure measures; and (ii) complemented by the introduction of a mid-year budget review to assess outturns against targets and identify corrective measures where needed.

Long-standing weaknesses in statistical compilation—particularly in prices, national accounts, fiscal data, and external sector statistics—continue to constrain evidence-based policymaking. The IMF stands ready to support efforts to address identified institutional gaps and capacity constraints through targeted capacity development assistance.

The IMF team is grateful to the authorities and other local stakeholders for their warm hospitality, collaboration, and constructive dialogue.

 

 

IMF and Haiti Conclude Virtual Mission on the Third Review Staff-Monitored Program (Link)

April 6, 2026

A Staff Monitored Program (SMP) is an informal agreement between an IMF member country and IMF staff to monitor the member country’s economic program.

As such, SMPs do not entail endorsement by the IMF Executive Board. SMP Staff reports are issued to the Board for information.   International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and the Haitian authorities have concluded the virtual mission under the Third Review of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP), pending approval by IMF Management.

As of end-December 2025, all program targets were met, including on

1. 1. 1. international reserves accumulation,
      2. primary balance,
      3. revenue collection,
      4. monetary financing, and
      5. social spending.

Reform implementation has advanced, although progress has been slower than anticipated in some areas, reflecting challenging security conditions, capacity constraints, and political uncertainty.

Persistent insecurity, political fragility, and the recent increase in international oil prices are compounding the country’s dire humanitarian and economic situation. Against this backdrop, we encourage authorities to deploy their accumulated buffers to help mitigate shocks, preserve macroeconomic stability, and protect the most vulnerable.

The recent oil price shock, in particular, underscores the importance of adapting policy implementation as conditions evolve.

The Haitian authorities have reaffirmed their commitment to the Staff Monitored Program and requested an extension until June 19, 2027. This decision will help anchor macroeconomic stability and maintain the reform agenda.

The authorities continue to have strong ownership and engage regularly with IMF staff through the high-level SMP Monitoring Committee.

Washington, DC: A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Mr. Camilo E. Tovar, conducted a virtual mission from March 23 to April 1st, 2026, to assess progress under Haiti’s program.

SMPs are informal agreements between country authorities and the IMF to monitor the implementation of the authorities’ economic program and build a track record of policy implementation that could pave the way for financial assistance from the IMF’s upper credit tranche (UCT).

Haiti’s SMP is tailored to Haiti’s context of acute security challenges, institutional fragility, and capacity constraints. It supports the authorities’ economic policy priorities, including stabilizing the economy, strengthening governance, and reinforcing the social safety net. Engagement with the authorities will continue over the coming weeks.

At the conclusion of the mission, Mr. Tovar issued the following statement:

“Haiti is facing an increasingly challenging macroeconomic environment shaped by persistent insecurity and recurrent domestic and external shocks.

The oil price shock stemming from the war in the Middle East has emerged as a major headwind, significantly raising the fuel import bill and implicit subsidy cost, and aggravating an already weak fiscal position.

These pressures add to the impact of Hurricane Melissa in October 2025, which disrupted economic activity and exacerbated humanitarian needs, and are taking place amid an ongoing fragile political transition, that would allow the country to organize elections later this year—the first in a decade.

“Real GDP contracted for a seventh consecutive year in FY2025. Inflation has eased rapidly in recent months, reaching 22.1 percent year-on-year—after peaking at about 32 percent year at end FY2025—and is expected to remain elevated. Against the backdrop of weak economic activity and heightened uncertainty, financial intermediation has continued to contract. Retrenchment in bank lending and financial disintermediation have contributed to improvements in non‑performing loan ratios, while capital adequacy ratios remain well above regulatory minimums.

“Despite a deteriorating external environment, international reserve buffers remain adequate. Higher international oil prices are weighing on the external position, but these pressures are partly offset by strong remittance inflows despite the uncertainty surrounding the potential extension of Haitian’s Temporary Protected Status (TPS) in the United States.

As a result, the current account is expected to remain broadly balanced in FY2026. Gross international reserves are projected to reach about US$3.4 billion at end FY2026—over seven months of prospective imports of goods and services. The nominal exchange rate has remained broadly stable, which given the high level of inflation, has contributed to an appreciation of the real exchange rate.

“Fiscal policy remains constrained by persistent security challenges, institutional weaknesses, and limited policy space. Revenue performance in FY2026 has been weak, reflecting disruptions to economic activity due to security conditions, administrative fragilities, and institutional paralysis triggered by the termination of the Transitional Presidential Council’s mandate.

Higher international oil prices are expected to add further pressure through higher implicit subsidy costs. Budget execution has remained uneven amid capacity constraints and heightened uncertainty. These developments have sharpened policy trade-offs and underscore the importance of prioritizing spending while safeguarding support for the most vulnerable.

“Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. A further deterioration in security conditions, together with persistently higher global oil prices, could further strain economic activity, aggravate humanitarian conditions through higher food prices, and intensify fiscal pressures.

Potential shifts in foreign immigration policies could slow remittance inflows, with adverse implications for the external position. On the upside, the deployment of the Gang Suppression Force —supported by the newly established United Nations Support Office for Haiti—could help restore confidence and support economic activity.

“All program targets were met at end-December 2025. Reserve accumulation has been strong with net international reserves reaching USD 1.76 billion in December 2025. The revenue, primary balance, and social spending targets all remained on track. The monetary financing target was also met despite an increasingly constrained fiscal space. The reform agenda—covering governance, public financial management, safeguards, and data provision—continues to advance, albeit with delays in some areas.

The SMP will continue to emphasize the following priorities:

“Strengthening governance to address fragility and rebuild trust in public institutions. Reforms anchored in the Governance Diagnostic Report aim to improve the integrity and effectiveness of public institutions, including more transparent management of public finances, stronger safeguards in revenue administration, and more effective mechanisms to deter and address corruption, organized crime, and illicit financial activities. Efforts to further strengthen the anti‑money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism framework—including through the publication of the recently concluded national risk assessment and closing remaining gaps—are also critical to reinforcing financial integrity and supporting Haiti’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force grey list.

“Stepping up revenue mobilization efforts given Haiti’s low revenue base and large security and development needs. Higher international oil prices are straining fiscal space, reinforcing the importance of accelerating tax and customs administration reforms, including operationalizing the new tax code, strengthening the digital infrastructure, and improving compliance—particularly among large taxpayers. The authorities’ decision to increase domestic fuel prices at the pump will reduce foregone revenues resulting from the oil price shock.

IMF staff reiterates the importance of reinforcing measures to protect the most vulnerable, including by leveraging the remaining resources from the IMF 2023 Food Shock Window. Staff welcomes the new decree putting in place a more predictable framework for domestic fuel price setting. At the same time, staff stresses the importance of ensuring that this fuel price setting framework is accompanied by a well-prepared communication strategy to ensure public support.

“Improving budget execution to ensure that limited public resources are effectively directed toward priority social, humanitarian, and security spending amid rising needs. In line with the recommendation from one of the most recent IMF Technical Assistance, this requires stronger cash management, tighter commitment controls, and better preparation and prioritization of public investment projects. These reforms are also critical to ensure the timely and effective delivery of public assistance, strengthen social spending execution, and safeguard support to vulnerable households. Together, they will help improve spending efficiency, improve the management of fiscal risks, and enable public spending to better support development and reconstruction efforts in a constrained environment.

“Consolidating the central bank’s policy framework and credibility. The Bank of the Republic of Haiti (BRH) remains committed to preserving price and exchange rate stability. This commitment continues to underpin macroeconomic performance and reinforces policy credibility under the SMP. Exchange rate stability has provided an important nominal anchor for the economy which continues to be supported by a prudent and sustained accumulation of international reserves. Governance at the central bank has been strengthened through the adoption of a new reserve management framework, including updated investment policies and guidelines that better align reserve management with safety and liquidity objectives.

“Enhancing the regulatory and supervisory frameworks in the financial system. The authorities are making progress in strengthening risk‑based banking supervision, including through the continued rollout of on‑site inspections and enhancements to off‑site monitoring of banks’ risk profiles. Efforts are underway to operationalize the new supervisory framework, integrate risk‑assessment tools into the BRH’s supervisory architecture, and finalize a new chart of accounts for financial institutions. These reforms are intended to safeguard financial stability and reinforce the resilience of the banking system amid a challenging operating environment.

“Improving data quality and timeliness. Having completed the audit and publication of the Bank of the Republic of Haiti’s FY2023 financial statements, work is underway to start the FY2024 financial statements audit. Continued implementation of the recommendations of the safeguards assessment will further reinforce governance and risk‑management practices at the central bank.

Efforts are also progressing to strengthen data reporting frameworks, including advances toward the International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity template and improvements in external sector statistics in line with IMF technical assistance. Further progress in aligning government finance statistics with international Government Finance Statistics standards and bringing the reporting of financial soundness indicators in line with international methodologies will help strengthen fiscal reporting and reinforce financial oversight.

“Collaborating with development partners to manage elevated fiscal risks and preserve macroeconomic stability, and the reform agenda. Amid heightened oil price pressures, there is an increasing risk that financing gaps could translate into domestic debt accumulation, undermining the public sector’s balance sheet.

External support should be provided primarily in the form of grants rather than non‑concessional borrowing. Together with rigorous appraisal and transparency requirements for donor‑financed operations, this support would help safeguard the public sector balance sheet, consolidate progress achieved under the program, and support a durable recovery that improves living conditions for the Haitian people.

In line with the Fund Strategy for Fragile and Conflict-Affected States, IMF staff will continue to collaborate closely with Haiti’s main development partners, particularly on governance and strengthening institutional capacity.

The IMF staff team met with the Minister of Economy and Finance, Mr. Serge Gabriel Collin, the Governor of the Bank of the Republic of Haiti, Mr. Ronald Gabriel, and other senior government officials. The mission expresses gratitude to the Haitian authorities for their strong cooperation and the open, constructive discussions throughout the engagement.

IMF Communications Department MEDIA RELATIONS PRESS OFFICER:

Meera Louis Phone: +1 202 623-7100

Email:[email protected]@IMFSpokesperson

 

 

 

Reward Offer of Up to $4 Million for Information Leading to Arrest of Scam Center Money Launderer

Press Statement April 23, 2026

Today, the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs is announcing a reward offer under the Transnational Organized Crime Rewards Program (TOCRP) of up to $4 million for information leading to the arrest of Daren Li for facilitating the laundering of proceeds for various scam centers in Southeast Asia.

Li was convicted and sentenced on money laundering charges in the U.S. Court for the Central District of California but remains a fugitive. According to court documents, Li, a citizen of the People’s Republic of China and St. Kitts and Nevis who resided at various times in the People’s Republic of China, Cambodia, and the United Arab Emirates, admitted to conspiring with others to launder funds obtained from victims through cryptocurrency scams and related fraud.

Scam centers use the services of money launderers who use cryptocurrency to transfer scam proceeds from victims in the United States and to avoid detection through anti-money laundering provisions. Li instructed co-conspirators to open U.S. bank accounts on behalf of shell companies and monitored the receipt and execution of interstate and international wire transfers of victim funds.

Li admitted that at least $73.6 million in victim funds were directly deposited into bank accounts associated with him and his co-conspirators, including at least $59.8 million from U.S. shell companies that laundered victim proceeds.

Today’s reward offer complements the Department of Justice’s announcement of charges against two Chinese nationals running a scam compound in Burma and attempting to start a compound in Cambodia, the seizure of a Telegram messaging app channel used to recruit human trafficking victims to a scam compound in Cambodia, and the seizure of 503 fraudulent web domains used to perpetrate cryptocurrency investment fraud, and Department of the Treasury’s announcement of sanctions targeting against Kok An, a Cambodian senator who controls scam compounds throughout the country, as well as 28 individuals and entities in his network.

Today’s reward offer is authorized by the Secretary of State under the TOCRP, which supports law enforcement efforts to disrupt transnational crime globally.

If you have information, please contact the U.S. Secret Service (USSS) by email at [email protected] if you are located outside of the United States, you may also contact the nearest U.S. Embassy or Consulate. If you are in the United States, you may also contact the local USSS office in your city.

 

 

Aurora Gold Mine commissions Guyana’s largest solar facility

April 9, 2026

Aurora Gold Mine Inc., which operated for several years without connection to the national energy grid now has the largest single solar facility in Guyana.

At its remote Region Seven location, the company formally commissioned the massive solar power system, signaling a decisive shift from diesel dependence to large-scale renewable energy. What began as a modest 3-megawatt installation in 2023 rapidly evolved into a combined solar capacity of 49.4 megawatts, supported by extensive battery storage, making it the largest non-state-owned photovoltaic system in Guyana.

At the commissioning ceremony, Prime Minister Brigadier (Ret’d) Mark Phillips described the project as a “landmark investment” that transforms how energy is produced and consumed in one of Guyana’s most remote industrial operations.

“This level of generation reduces reliance on diesel fuel and results in significant emissions reductions,” he said, noting that the facility will cut roughly 46,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually while strengthening environmental performance.

Aurora mine , located deep in the interior and historically powered entirely by diesel, now operates a hybrid system that balances solar generation and battery storage in real time, ensuring a stable and reliable power supply. For years, Aurora functioned completely off-grid, relying on fuel transported over long distances, a costly and logistically challenging model.

That reality began to change in 2023. AGM’s phased approach started with a 3 MW solar system, expanded to 15 MW, and has now culminated in a 30 MW Phase II build-out, bringing total installed capacity to nearly 50 MW. AGM Inc. said,

“This project reflects disciplined planning, strong partnerships, and a shared commitment to national progress. Today is more than a commissioning — it is a clear statement of direction.”

The system, fully integrated as of March 2026, includes large-scale battery storage — enabling the mine to significantly reduce diesel consumption by an estimated 18 million litres annually.

AGM reported that in 2025 alone, it:

1. 1. 1. Produced over 145,000 ounces of gold
      2. Contributed more than US$111 million in taxes and royalties
      3. Injected over US$360 million into the local economy

“These are not projections — these are real contributions.”

At the same time, the solar system will cut emissions by over 47,000 tonnes per year, while supplying a significant portion of the mine’s energy needs.

Beyond energy and economics, the project has delivered tangible benefits for local workers. Approximately 100 local jobs were created during construction, with workers gaining hands-on experience in renewable energy systems, battery storage, and microgrid management.

The Prime Minister noted, “These are skills that will remain relevant as Guyana continues to expand its use of renewable energy. This project shows how renewable energy can be integrated into industrial operations even in remote areas.”

AGM highlighted that 90% of its workforce is Guyanese, with over 800 direct employees and 1,400 engaged through contractors. Behind every number is a family, a skill being developed, and a future being built.

Chinese Ambassador to Guyana Yang Yang described the project as a significant step in advancing sustainable development through international cooperation.

“Modern mining must move away from high consumption and high emissions. A modern mine should create not only economic value, but also environmental and social value.”

The project demonstrates how clean energy can replace diesel-heavy systems in remote operations — improving both stability and environmental performance. The Aurora solar project is closely aligned with Guyana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy 2030, which seeks to expand renewable energy while maintaining economic growth. Prime Minister Phillips pointed to similar solar initiatives across the country, including utility-scale projects, grid upgrades, and battery storage investments.

AGM says the work is far from complete. The company is already advancing additional solar and battery systems at Buckhall Port to reduce emissions across its logistics chain, while continuing to expand its renewable footprint at Aurora.

“We are not speaking in general terms — we are delivering measurable outcomes. At AGM Inc., we are guided by one principle: mining for a better society.”

 

 

 

 

Risk of “creeping Chinese influence” in Guyana

May 02, 2026

… America ‘cannot afford to lose natural resource- rich Guyana’

US Congressman Gabe Evans raised concerns about growing Chinese influence in Guyana, warning that it could threaten American interests in a nation in rich natural resources.

“I write to call attention to creeping Chinese influence and threats to American interests in Guyana,” Congressman Gabe Evans said in the letter to US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.

Evans, who serves on both the Energy & Commerce and Homeland Security Committees, said he is increasingly alarmed by credible reports of growing interference, particularly from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Guyana.

“These activities have the potential to threaten regional stability and undermine US interests in countering Beijing’s predatory practices in our backyard.

As the administration continues to prioritize American interests in the Western hemisphere, I ask that you and the State Department vigilantly monitor Guyana and how the CCP may be working to subvert priorities in areas such as diplomacy, energy, and critical minerals” .

To this end, he linked his concerns to Guyana’s leadership, noting that the September 2025 general elections returned President Irfaan Ali and Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo to office under the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C).

He claimed, “Both the president and the vice president have a long and public history of emphasizing strategic alignment with China. This is exacerbated by the People’s Progressive Party, which itself is affiliated with the International Meeting of Communist and Workers’ Parties, a pro-China assembly of international communist and socialist parties.”

He contended that China has followed a “tried-and-true playbook” in developing regional players across the world by leveraging financial investments and infrastructure projects in exchange to secure political influence and favours.

In relation to this, the congressman noted a similar approach in Guyana via, “debt-trap diplomacy and favoritism as seen with allegations of Chinese money laundering per a 2022 Vice News report.”

He referenced a reported US$1.5 billion low-interest loan from China and inexperienced Chinese firms securing billions of dollars in contracts over far more experienced and competitively priced international bidders.

“The United States cannot afford to lose Guyana to CCP influence and cronyism. Guyana is a nation with rich natural resources and a population that is ready, willing, and able to partner with the United States.” He urged that the US remain vigilant and ensure that China’s role in Guyana does not undermine US foreign policy objectives, particularly in areas such as energy, diplomacy, and critical minerals.

“I urge you and your office to continue these efforts while not overlooking the significant influence China has established in Guyana which could be counterproductive to the State Department’s position on the US hegemony in international markets.”

 

 

 

 

Trade Dependence on the U.S.

April 05, 2026

Sir Ronald Sanders, Antigua & Barbuda Ambassador to USA and OAS and Chancellor of University of Guyana.

The Caribbean has not set out to loosen trade dependence on the United States.

It is being driven to do so. For generations, importers and consumers looked first to the American market, for reasons of preference and practicality.

1. The USA is near.
2. Shipping is easier.
3. Delivery is faster.
4. Commercial routes are established.
5. Refrigerated cargo and container services are structured to support the trade.

For food, medicines, household supplies, machinery and construction materials, the American market has long been the natural first choice.

The USA for centuries enjoyed a significant trade surplus with Caribbean countries, and that surplus remains overall, notwithstanding recent oil and gas exports from Guyana and Trinidad & Tobago. Even there, the United States benefits from supply by nearby, reliable and friendly countries.

The Caribbean market therefore, has been loyal. That is why recent developments deserve sober reflection. No sensible government in the region wishes to weaken ties with an ally that has long been central to Caribbean commerce.   The cumulative effect of recent U.S. trade measures is now forcing governments, businesses and consumers to reconsider assumptions that once seemed settled.  Three pressures are driving that change.

The first is the continuing tariff burden on Caribbean exports to the USA. Although the sweeping tariff action announced on 2 April 2025 was later narrowed after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down part of the emergency-based approach, the consequences remain serious for Caribbean producers.

As of April 2026, most Caribbean goods still face a 10 per cent baseline import duty under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. That may appear modest for a large economy. It is not modest for small states exporting rum, processed food, specialty preparations, personal care items, building products and other niche goods whose competitiveness depends on tight margins.

The second pressure is broader and more corrosive. It lies not only in the tariff imposed on Caribbean goods entering the U.S. market, but in the tariffs the USA imposed on imports from other parts of the world.

Those costs do not stay within American borders. They feed into U.S. prices of food, manufactured goods, agricultural inputs and other products on which Caribbean economies depend. Since the region still imports a large share of essential supplies from the USA, or through U.S.-linked channels, higher prices in America become higher prices in the region.

This is pressing heavily on the cost of living in countries that can least afford sustained imported inflation.

Wages and salaries in Caribbean economies cannot keep pace indefinitely with rising prices for basic goods. Governments do not trade directly, but they cannot escape fiscal and political consequences when households are squeezed by higher prices for food, medicines, household items and construction supplies.

At that point, food security and health security cease to be future concerns. They become present national concerns.

The third factor is practical. Business leaders have long visited the USA to inspect goods, meet suppliers, attend trade fairs, negotiate contracts and maintain commercial relationships.

Where visa requirements become more onerous, or where high bond requirements are imposed in some cases and may yet become more widespread, the cost of doing business with the USA rises yet again. The issue then is not only the price of the goods themselves. It is also the cost, uncertainty and inconvenience of entering the market where those goods are bought.

Caribbean governments, importers and consumers are therefore looking at alternatives, not out of hostility to the USA, nor from any wish to sever longstanding trade ties but because prudence requires it.

When basic goods become more expensive, harder to source, or more burdensome to secure from a traditional market, alternative suppliers inevitably come into view. That process has begun.

CARICOM states are intensifying efforts to source more within the region and to widen relationships with other international partners. The call to buy local and buy regional within the CARICOM Single Market and Economy is gaining practical force. This is a growing trend by other countries.

Canada is moving towards a free-trade agreement with Mercosur, because dependence on an uncertain U.S. trade environment now carries greater risk.

That trend will not benefit the Caribbean or the USA. The Caribbean is a friendly, proximate, reliable market. If U.S. policies push Caribbean importers to source more goods from Latin America and elsewhere, the USA will lose not only export sales, but also market presence and commercial influence in a region that has long looked to it first.

This is not an argument for grievance but for realism. Caribbean countries are not moving to diversify trade relations because they wish to turn away from the USA.

They are compelled to do so by circumstances that increasingly threaten economic stability, social and political stability. No responsible government can ignore rising prices for essential goods, growing uncertainty in supply, and mounting costs of doing business with a market on which the region has long depended.

If that imbalance is not addressed, diversification will accelerate, not as a matter of policy, but as a matter of necessity. In that event, the USA may lose a loyal market that had no wish to go elsewhere but which would be left with little practical choice.

That would be an unfortunate outcome for the Caribbean and an unnecessary one for the United States.