Regime change in Venezuela

2025, 10/24

Analysts warn Trinidad and Tobago’s Government that regime change in Venezuela could destabilise the entire region. The latest reports out of the United States and Venezuela suggested both the Donald Trump and Nicolas Maduro regimes were preparing for war.

Trump told media that his administration was preparing to take US Navy operations currently in the Caribbean Sea to land. Maduro confirmed the deployment of short-range, man-portable surface-to-air systems designed to target drones, helicopters, cruise missiles, and low-flying aircraft as a direct response to increased US military activity.

Former Grenada House Speaker Chester Humphrey accused Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar of capitulating to US policy in a way that was not befitting of the office she held.

“This is what is happening to the prime ministership in Trinidad and Tobago! It is being desecrated by someone who, first of all, may be in a state of stupor, does not understand the principles involved in the zone of peace.”

Zones of Peace are areas designated to promote stability. In the statement from Caricom at a meeting of regional heads, all countries save T&T:

“reaffirmed the principle of maintaining the Caribbean region as a Zone of Peace and the importance of dialogue and engagement towards the peaceful resolution of disputes and conflict.”

Undeterred, T&T issued its own release, expressing full support for the US strikes.

“These operations aimed at combating narco and human trafficking and other forms of transnational crime are ultimately aimed at allowing the region to be a true “Zone of Peace,” where all citizens can, in reality, live and work in a safe environment.”

Humphrey claimed, zones of peace have nothing to do with domestic crime.

In justifying T&T’s isolationist stance , Persad-Bissessar told Media, “No other country besides the US is willing to assist us to aggressively fight the drug and arms traffickers. I am not going to toe Caricom’s line while our country is going to hell with drugs, violent crime and murders.”

A UWI don said one must consider that as a small state, this country does not have much room to refuse a request, or perhaps even an order from the Trump administration. The only way a Caricom state would take this position is if it was approached directly by the US to do so.

“Given who Donald Trump is as President of the United States, he won’t take no for an answer. Does Trinidad and Tobago have a choice? I would say no given the likely repercussions.”

Persad-Bissessar’s stance is being seen more favourably in Guyana. Former politician and lawyer Ralph Ramkarran, who served as Speaker of the National Assembly from 2001 to 2011, said many nationals welcomed Persad-Bissessar’s hawkish talk, based on Guyana’s tense relationship with Venezuela, linked to their long-standing border dispute. Regional heads attempted to mediate the matter involving the Essequibo region in December 2023 in St Vincent, resulting in the Argyle Agreement but Venezuela engaged in provocations since.

Asked why Guyana was not similarly tough talking on Venezuela, Ramkarran noted relative privilege of TT, 11km apart from Venezuela. Guyana shares a land border and is constantly worried about Venezuelan military incursions.

While many are concerned about possible US military action in Venezuela, Ramkarran said, “Many people in Guyana believe Venezuela is preparing for a military intervention and therefore, Guyana does not want to do or say anything that will provoke any such activity.”

At The University of the West Indies  Vice-Chancellor’s Forum, St Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves labelled T&T support for the US action “misguided.” He warned that:

“one state’s action should not interfere in the business of another state.” Regime change is not a simple matter and could have a destabilising effect , as “many bad actors could seek to take advantage of such actions to move to other countries in the region, and this could become a crisis.” Gonsalves said the region needed more statesmen and stateswomen to close the foreign policy gaps keeping the islands apart.

 

In 2019 USA deployed 600 troops to Guyana which borders Venezuela

Digital Journal

The US has been working with Colombia, Brazil and other regional partners to plan ways of crushing Venezuela’s economy in an attempt to force President Maduro to step down and to install Juan Guaido.

 

 

T&T aligns with US on Bolivia

2025. 10/23

Trinidad and Tobago signed a joint statement with the USA and several Latin American countries congratulating Bolivia’s new president, sparking debate about the direction of T&T foreign policy and its alignment within Caricom.

Former Jamaican ambassador Curtis Ward described the move as “unusual and precedent-setting I find this alignment of a small number of conservative governments — which the T&T government has joined — to congratulate the election of a centre-right conservative government in Bolivia, should give other Caricom members pause.

While it is normal in diplomatic circles to congratulate a successful candidate, it is highly unusual — and probably unprecedented — for a joint statement to be issued by like-minded governments. Most countries don’t even go that far.”

The decision “signals further evidence of solidarity with the United States” and could represent “an erosion of a unified foreign policy within Caricom.

This raises the question of whether T&T’s foreign policy is being determined in Washington and not in Port-of-Spain. It’s something that must be watched closely, especially if the government is seeking US favour for the waiver of sanctions on Venezuela to allow the Dragon Gas project to proceed.”

International relations expert Dr Anthony Bryant agreed that the joint statement reflects a new level of alignment with Washington.

“T&T’s joint statement on the Bolivian election signals its close relationship with the US. It also shows that T&T is becoming more aligned with US directives. This is a marked departure from our traditional policy of neutrality — being friends of all and enemies of none. Words and actions have repercussions.”

Former foreign affairs minister Dr Amery Browne accused the Government of undermining T&T’s long-standing tradition of sovereign diplomacy.

“Every day there are further worrying signs that this Government has farmed out the foreign policy of Trinidad and Tobago.  Since independence, the normal practice has been for our Prime Minister to issue a letter of congratulations after consultations among Caricom heads.

Instead, our Government co-signed a statement drafted and issued by the US Department of State — a statement that even comments on internal political matters within Bolivia. This is not something Trinidad and Tobago has associated itself with since independence.”

The move represents “a dangerous departure from Caricom unity” and could lead to “further isolation of Trinidad and Tobago from its regional partners.”

Dr Anthony Gonzales of the University of the West Indies urged the Government to pursue a policy of “positive non-alignment,” balancing national interests without becoming entangled in global power struggles. “The Government is still saying it wants to talk to Venezuela. You cannot have good relations with Venezuela if you appear hostile or supportive of any invasion.”

Acknowledging that T&T’s recent actions differ from Caricom’s “Zone of Peace” doctrine, Gonzales said he does not expect a lasting rift within the regional bloc.

“Caricom has disagreements on many things. I don’t think this will make much of a difference in our long-term relationships.”

However, he cautioned that maintaining cooperation with both the US and Venezuela remains crucial for managing migration, regional security and energy projects — including the long-delayed Dragon Gas Project.

“If that relationship breaks down, we will have problems. It’s a delicate balancing act — trying to satisfy both sides while protecting Trinidad and Tobago’s interests.”

The Joint Statement
On October 21, the US Department of State issued a release — co-signed by Argentina, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Panama, Paraguay, T&T and the United States — congratulating President-elect Rodrigo Paz Pereira on his election victory in Bolivia. The statement pledged that Washington and its partners would “work closely with the new president to address regional and global challenges.”

However, the Government of T&T has not issued an individual statement and Foreign Minister Sean Sobers has not responded to multiple requests for comment.

 

 

A New World Order?

Oct 19, 2025 Sir Ronald Sanders

Ambassador of Antigua and Barbuda to the United States and the OAS, and Dean of the OAS Ambassadors accredited to the OAS. Responses and previous commentaries: www.sirronaldsanders.com

The world has long spoken of a “rules-based order,” as though the law itself held dominion over power. Yet, behind the diplomatic courtesies and the fine print of charters, it was power that wrote the rules and altered them at will.

The difference today is that the altering is done in full view and only a few feign surprise.   We all knew what the Order was even when we hoped for better. We knew it in World Trade Organization negotiations when our cries for special and differential treatment for small states in trade relations fell on deaf ears.

We knew it in Climate Change negotiations when our pleas for a loss and damage fund evinced a sop, not a solution.   From the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 to the Charter of the United Nations in 1945, the international system has proclaimed the sovereign equality of states.

In practice, this has always been more aspiration than achievement. Legal sovereignty – the declared right to be free from interference – belongs to all;    political sovereignty – the power to act without permission – belongs to the few.

The theorists of pluralism have long argued that sovereignty has never been absolute, but continuously bargained, constrained, and reshaped by circumstance. Small and powerless countries know this truth by experience, not by theory.    The difference in the present circumstances is bluntness.

The restraint that once moderated power – or at least gave a pretense of negotiation and respect for State rights – has given way to open display of might.

Commitments to multilateral cooperation are treated as conveniences; treaties are interpreted as optional; international courts are ignored. The change is not in achieving objectives; it is in the tossing aside of pretension. Power no longer feels obliged to disguise itself in contrived negotiations.

For small states, this unmasking is more than academic. Their sovereignty is not an instrument to dictate to others; it is a fragile shield of defence – the space within which they may choose their partners, legislate their priorities, and speak their truths.

When that space contracts, their independence becomes more ceremony than substance.   This tension is now evident in CARICOM, where half a century ago four leaders – Michael Manley, Errol Barrow, Forbes Burnham and Eric Williams – declared the region a Zone of Peace.

It was a visionary pledge: that the Caribbean’s destiny would not be shaped by the rivalries of distant powers. Yet, as former Jamaican Prime Minister P. J. Patterson warned, that pledge is under threat. He described as “fundamentally dangerous and a horrible erosion” the intrusion of external military operations into Caribbean waters – actions which have been justified in the name of security which appear to be unmindful of sovereignty, if not of law.

None of this denies the value of cooperation against transnational crime; it insists only that such cooperation be anchored in international law, transparency and respect for regional consultation.  Patterson’s concerns are not about who acts, but what the action signifies: that even within the waters the Caribbean calls its own, decisions are made elsewhere.

While the Caribbean Community has often spoken of “collective sovereignty,” the truth is that each nation, bound by economic and security dependence, has often pursued its own accommodations with external powers. Dependence invites compromise of the very sovereignty so often declared.

This is the paradox of small states: they depend on the international rule of law but are powerless when it is ignored.

1. Sanctions regimes are threatened or imposed without UN mandate – as the OECD and the European Union have done on financial services;
2. trade restrictions are justified by assertions of unfair trade deficits, even though Caribbean small states have no surplus with any trading partner – Guyana is now an exception only in the area of oil and gas sales;
3. human-rights mechanisms are starved of funds or credibility.

In reality, poor and powerless countries have lived in a world order where justice has nominally existed, but enforcement has not. So, when the present international situation suggests that we are moving to a “new world order,” we should ask: what is new?

The only thing new is the bluntness with which power is exercised. The hierarchy has always been there – now only some pretend otherwise. We are witnessing not the birth of a new order, but the formal admission of the old: an order in which might makes the rules.

For small nations, the implications are sobering. Sovereignty may soon mean no more than the right to manage domestic affairs, provided they do not offend the ideologies or interests of those who command the oceans, the markets and the security umbrella.

Yet, the response of small states cannot be withdrawal or despair. It must be steadfast insistence on the language of law and principle – not because it always protects us, but because without it there is nothing left to which to appeal.

The rules-based order may be throwing off the disguise of legal robes, but its vocabulary still defines the terrain. The Caribbean’s security and prosperity have long benefited from principled partnerships with larger democracies; their appeal should be to keep those partnerships squarely within the framework of law.

In the Caribbean Community, governments will have to understand and tolerate why some amongst them, in their national interest, have to be more accommodating of larger powers. They will also have to accept that “collective sovereignty” cannot be exercised if it invites individual punishment.

The challenge, then, is not to submit to the emerging new world order dominated by power and might, but to prevent the old one from becoming unashamedly permanent. For when law is silenced and power alone speaks, the ladder of equity collapses, leaving the powerless helpless at the bottom.

Caution is now required, but so is courage.

 

 

 

 

 

Two survivors captured after US strike on “narco-submarine”

October 17th 2025 –

Two people have reportedly survived a US military attack on a vessel allegedly carrying drugs from Venezuela and are being held aboard a Navy ship in the Caribbean Sea.   The strike, which took place on Thursday, is the sixth US attack on Venezuelan ships in recent weeks—and the first in which survivors have been reported.

President Donald Trump confirmed the operation, describing the targeted vessel as a “drug-carrying submarine” and justifying the attacks as part of Washington’s broader campaign against Venezuela’s alleged drug trafficking networks.

“We attacked a submarine, and that was a drug-carrying submarine built specifically for transporting massive amounts of drugs. This was not an innocent group of people. I don’t know too many people who have submarines.”

The survivors were reportedly rescued by a US military helicopter before being transferred to a nearby warship. The US government has not officially confirmed their capture or condition, and neither Trump nor Secretary of State Marco Rubio addressed the reports directly. Rubio referred to the targets as “narco-terrorists” and said further details would be released later.

The attacks, which have killed at least 27 people, have drawn sharp criticism from UN-appointed human rights experts, who described them as “extrajudicial executions.”

Trinidad and Tobago announced an investigation after two of its citizens—believed to be fishermen—were reportedly killed in a similar strike. “There is a killer prowling the Caribbean,” said Venezuela’s UN Ambassador Samuel Moncada, calling for UN Security Council intervention and warning that “people from different countries are suffering the effects of these massacres.”

The incident comes as tensions between Washington and Caracas escalate. Trump confirmed he authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela and suggested that “phase two” of his anti-narcotics campaign could include attacks on Venezuelan territory.

Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, whose legitimacy remains disputed internationally, accused Trump of seeking to turn Venezuela into “an American colony” and urged peace.

US military presence in the Caribbean Sea reached around 10,000 troops, according to defense sources, with B-52 bombers conducting flights over the region and Navy warships stationed near Venezuelan waters. Narco-submarines—often handmade from fiberglass and plywood—have become increasingly common in drug trafficking operations, capable of carrying up to three tonnes of cocaine to destinations including the USA and Europe.

For many in the region, the recent escalation represents something far larger. As Moncada warned at the UN: “These attacks are not about drugs—they are about power.”

Venezuela cannot be classified as a drug-producer, as only 40 per cent of the territory’s 90.64 million hectares has been classified as drug-producing.

 

 

 

BP’s improved production outlook countered by ‘weak’ oil trading guidance

Vladimir Afanasiev European Correspondent
Published 14 October 2025, 09:31

Shares in UK supermajor drop on Tuesday after trading update falls short of market expectations

British major BP on Tuesday raised its estimate for hydrocarbons production for the third quarter of this year, with higher gas output and stronger refining margins strengthening its performance, but warned that oil trading is expected to be “weak”.

The company said in a trading statement that third quarter upstream production is now expected to be higher compared to the prior quarter — after previously forecasting it would be lower — with output rising in oil production and operations, lifted by higher gas production in BPX Energy, and in gas and low carbon energy.

In the second quarter, BP had reported hydrocarbon production of 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, almost 3% above the first quarter of 2025.  In the third quarter of last year, BP had reported output of 2.38 million boepd.

BP had said in early August that it expected upstream production to be slightly lower in the third quarter versus the second quarter of 2025.   In the products segment, the company expects to report stronger refining margins in the range of $300 million to $400 million, and a significantly lower level of turnaround activity, as it had previously guided.

Shares in BP were down by around 2.5% in early afternoon trade in London. Some analysts suggested that the update had fallen short of market expectations, particularly in light of fellow UK supermajor Shell’s trading update last week.

“I sense the market had hoped for more from BP following its strong performance at the second quarter and a positive quarterly update from Shell last week,” head of European energy and equity research at UBS, Joshua Stone, said.

Indications of a “weak” contribution from oil trading was below the bank’s expectation of “average”, UBS said in a research note on Tuesday. The impact of stronger realised refining margins was also slightly below their upside expectation of $500 million.

Stone said that UBS has reduced its assessment of BP’s net income by 11% to $2 billion in the third quarter to reflect the indications of weaker oil trading, which he said brings the net income figure in-line with overall consensus.

In the oil production and operations segment, realisations are expected to be broadly flat compared to the prior quarter, including the impact of the price lags on BP’s production in the US Gulf and the United Arab Emirates, with the outlook unchanged from August.

BP said it expects its exploration write-offs will be around $100 million higher in the third quarter. The company reported write-offs of $81 million in the second quarter of this year and $309 million in the third quarter of 2024.

It said gas and low carbon energy segment realisations, compared to the prior quarter, are expected to have a negative impact of around $100 million, including changes in non-Henry Hub natural gas marker prices.

In the customers segment, BP expects to report seasonally higher volumes with broadly flat fuels margins, unchanged from previous guidance.

The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be “average”, BP said.

The third quarter results are expected to include post-tax adjusting items relating to asset impairments in the range of $200 million to $500 million, attributable across the business segments.

Net debt at the end of the third quarter is expected to be broadly flat compared to the end of the second quarter at around $26 billion, BP said.

 

 

 

 

Young, Moonilal spar over OFAC contract details

2025, 10/10

Former prime minister and energy minister Stuart Young questioned Government’s silence on specifics of what he described as a provisional Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) licence by the US government to T&T.

“I urge the Government to inform the population what are the terms and conditions of this six-month licence,” Young said , hours after Attorney General John Jeremie announced T&T had been granted the licence on Wednesday. Young continued.

“Can Shell and NGC pay the Venezuelan government for the gas? This is the same UNC that, while in Opposition, demanded weekly updates on this project and accused us of secrecy. The irony is striking.”

Young said his People’s National Movement administration had kept the public informed throughout its own negotiations, noting that the previous licence was publicly published in the Venezuelan Gazette.

“The UNC once branded the Dragon arrangement a ‘secret deal.’ Now they are hiding behind confidentiality.

“The Government must tell the country what it promised to obtain this provisional OFAC licence.”

However, in an immediate response, Energy Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal hit back sharply at Young’s remarks, accusing the Opposition of hypocrisy and obstruction.

“We promised that the PNM and Stuart Young will be no part of the energy future.”

Moonilal said the UNC administration remains focused on restoring energy security and leveraging new diplomatic openings with both the US and Venezuela to revive gas supply to the domestic and LNG sectors.

“After significant and intensive work, we have attained an OFAC licence. We now have a clear and viable pathway to resuscitate the Dragon project, which was dead on our arrival. We’ve worked hard in a short time, and there’s still extensive work to be done,” he said.

Economist and international relations expert Dr Anthony Gonzales welcomed the development , as a “logical and timely move” given the regional and economic pressures facing both Trinidad and Venezuela.

“It doesn’t make sense keeping that gas in the ground. Countries are moving toward alternative energies like hydrogen, so Venezuela has every reason to monetise its gas now, and we have every reason to access it.”  Dr Gonzales said in an interview.

He said the United States’ decision to grant the licence signals recognition of T&T’s dependence on natural gas to sustain its petrochemical and LNG industries.
“Our economy is very dependent on that gas. If we don’t secure new supplies soon, the Government could face declining revenues and rising unemployment,” .Gonzales said Shell’s involvement and interest in securing a longer-term, ten-year licence could strengthen the project’s stability and attract broader investment.

Economist Mariano Browne struck a more cautious tone, urging the Government and the public to temper expectations. He noted that the OFAC licence, limited to six months, was more symbolic than substantive given the scale and lifespan of the Dragon project.

“What is an OFAC licence for six months in the context of an agreement with Venezuela which lasts 30 years? Nobody invests US$500 million to US$1 billion for a six-month period. These are capital-intensive projects that need 15 to 30 years to recover costs.”

He suggested that the short-term licence likely represents permission to negotiate rather than final approval to produce or invest. “Both countries stand to benefit. Venezuela earns revenue, and we get the gas we desperately need. The quicker both sides sit down to negotiate, the better for everyone,” .

Browne said the real test will be whether the Government can reach an agreement that satisfies all parties, the US, Venezuela, Shell and NGC, within the limited window.

 

 

 

 

Trump orders suspension of diplomatic contacts with Maduro amid Venezuela military crisis

Tuesday, October 7th 2025 –

The directive, issued last Thursday, comes amid rising military tensions between Washington and Caracas. “We’ll see what phase two looks like,” Trump told reporters.

U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered a complete halt to diplomatic contacts with Nicolás Maduro’s government, marking a new escalation in Washington’s confrontation with Venezuela. According to The New York Times, the president instructed his special envoy to the country, Richard Grenell, to cease any outreach or dialogue with the Chavista regime.

The directive, issued last Thursday, comes amid rising military tensions between Washington and Caracas. “We’ll see what phase two looks like,” Trump told reporters on Sunday, hinting at a possible expansion of U.S. operations beyond the Caribbean. Later that day, during a Navy anniversary ceremony, he suggested he might consider a land offensive “against the cartels and their allies.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed on Friday that U.S. forces had carried out another extrajudicial strike off the Venezuelan coast, killing four people aboard a boat allegedly linked to drug trafficking. “They were narcoterrorists,” Hegseth said, without presenting evidence.

In recent weeks, Washington has conducted at least four similar attacks without disclosing who was aboard the targeted vessels or what they were transporting. U.S. media estimate that at least 21 people have been killed in these operations, which the White House justifies as part of a self-declared “war on drug trafficking” from Venezuela.

Trump considers Maduro the leader of both the Tren de Aragua and the Cartel of the Suns — organizations the State Department has listed as “designated terrorist groups.” In August, the Department of Justice doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro’s capture to US$50 million. The Venezuelan president is wanted in New York on charges of drug trafficking conspiracy.

U.S. military sources cited by The New York Times say the Trump administration has developed several contingency plans to escalate pressure — including the possibility of forcing Maduro from power. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, one of the strongest advocates of Trump’s hardline stance, has reportedly called Maduro an “illegitimate leader” and a “fugitive from justice.”

Grenell, who took office in January declaring that “diplomacy is back,” has now received the opposite order. With Trump’s latest directive, the diplomatic channel between Washington and Caracas has been effectively shut down.

 

 

 

US-Grenada military deal could test Caricom unity

2025, 10/10

Former Jamaican ambassador Curtis Ward says the United States does not need a base in Grenada to act militarily against Venezuela, as Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s decision to welcome US forces to T&T represents a break with Caricom’s Zone of Peace policy.

His comments came amid reports of a US military aircraft at Piarco International Airport and sightings of suspected military planes over Point Fortin.

Grenada’s Foreign Affairs Ministry confirmed that the United States had requested permission for the temporary installation of radar equipment and technical personnel at the Maurice Bishop International Airport.

Ward warned that the developments could deepen existing fractures within the regional bloc.   “We have to recognize that T&T’s Prime Minister has broken with Caricom’s traditional Zone of Peace by inviting and welcoming the US to stage military forces in Trinidad. The little unity that may have remained is already shattered by Trinidad and Tobago.”

While cautioning that it was too early to determine Washington’s exact intentions, Ward said the implications for Caribbean stability and regional relations could be far-reaching.

“If this report proves true, we can speculate on the possibilities and the potential implications for the entire Caribbean region and for Caricom.”

Renewed US pressure on Venezuela might explain Washington’s interest in Grenada, given its strategic location. A Grenada base would add little strategic value, since the US already possesses sufficient naval and air capabilities in the region.

“The Trump administration wants regime change in Venezuela. Having failed during his first term, President Trump may now be determined to remove Maduro this time.

“Basing in Grenada wouldn’t add much advantage if the US can already base in Trinidad.”

He noted growing tensions in Colombia, where a vessel was allegedly destroyed by US forces.

“Colombia is creating quite a stir by saying the fourth boat blown up by US military forces is a Colombian boat, not a Venezuelan one.The US already has a major falling out with the Colombian president, which gives rise to other speculation.”

Guyana’s existing security agreement with the US and the silence of some Caricom members, including Jamaica, were shaping a new geopolitical reality.

“Given the current Jamaican government’s approach of not doing anything, the US could interpret it as being out of step with its policy. I don’t expect much from Jamaica on this issue.”

These developments highlight a shifting balance of power and a diminishing sense of unity within Caricom, as governments weigh national interests against collective neutrality.
Regional security expert Dr Garvin Heerah said that while Grenada has the sovereign right to make its own security decisions, Caribbean stability depends on neutrality, cooperation, and transparency.

“Grenada, as a sovereign state, reserves the right to engage in bilateral agreements that advance its national interests. However, such arrangements must also be weighed against Caricom’s collective diplomatic posture and its long-standing commitment to neutrality and non-alignment.”

If reports of US radar installation were accurate, they could test Caricom’s unity and alter the region’s security balance.

“If confirmed, this could introduce sensitivity within Caricom, where smaller states have traditionally favoured a balanced approach in foreign policy.”

Historical experience, particularly the 1983 US intervention in Grenada, must guide its response.

“The memory of the 1983 intervention remains etched in regional consciousness. Any contemporary military or logistical arrangement must therefore be managed transparently and diplomatically to prevent misinterpretation.”

While acknowledging Grenada’s strategic southern location, he said clarity is needed on the purpose of any foreign assets.

“It raises questions regarding the scope of such assets — whether they are intended for humanitarian assistance, counter-narcotics operations, or broader regional security objectives,” he said.

Perceptions of foreign military presence could expose Grenada to geopolitical risk.
“Such a perception could make the country a focal point in times of heightened tension,” he warned, urging regional dialogue to ensure any agreements align with Caricom’s peace and security frameworks.

“While Grenada’s sovereign right must be respected, any move of this nature requires regional consultation, strategic foresight, and diplomatic prudence. The Caribbean’s future depends on maintaining open communication, reaffirming non-alignment principles and safeguarding identity as a Zone of Peace.”

Professor Andy Knight cautioned against Grenada accepting the US proposal. “This will be a huge mistake if Grenada complies with this request. If Grenada agrees to host foreign military assets on its soil, this will violate the collective regional principle that was agreed upon after the last disastrous Grenada invasion.”

“The true security of the small island states does not come from foreign military bases or illegal gunboat diplomacy—it comes from good governance, social justice, sustainable development, and respect for international norms. The Caribbean should stand united in saying: our seas are not battlefields; our islands are not launching pads. We are a Zone of Peace, and we intend to remain so.”

Partnership with the US should be based on mutual respect, trade, climate cooperation and people ties.

 

 

 

 

Shell is near U.S. approval for Venezuelan gas exports to Trinidad

October. 08, 2025 Rob Williams, SA News Editor

Shell is preparing to restart early work on Venezuela’s Dragon offshore gas field as it grows confident the Trump administration will grant a license exempting the project from sanctions, Bloomberg News reported.

The field, located near the maritime border with Trinidad and Tobago, could supply gas to Trinidad’s liquefaction complex and petrochemical plants, which have faced declining output for more than a decade.

Shell is pushing for a license lasting up to 10 years to justify long-term investment, while Trinidad’s state-owned National Gas Co. remains its local partner.The potential approval underscores Washington’s mixed stance toward Venezuela: while military pressure continues, energy companies are being allowed limited access to revive projects that ease shortages in Trinidad.

A similar waiver was granted to Chevron earlier this year for heavy oil operations.   BP is also seeking to renew its license to develop the nearby Manakin-Cocuina field.

Both Shell and BP are key shareholders in Trinidad’s Atlantic LNG complex, which has been constrained by falling gas supplies. Venezuela awarded Shell and NGC a 30-year contract for Dragon in 2023, reviving plans first outlined in 2018 before U.S. sanctions halted progress. The field holds an estimated 4 trillion cubic feet of gas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Colombian and Venezuelan districts deepen ties

September 29

Governors of bordering Venezuelan and Colombian districts held a “historic and significant meeting” on the banks of the Orinoco River to sign a Memorandum of Understanding aimed at reactivating binational exchange.

Participating at the event were Colombia’s Fulberto Guevara (Vichada) and Arnulfo Rivera (Guainía), alongside Venezuela’s Miguel Rodríguez (Amazonas), as well as the ambassadors from both nations: Colombia’s envoy to Venezuela, Milton Rengifo, and his Venezuelan counterpart in Bogotá, Carlos Eduardo Martínez.

The gathering’s main goal was to take a decisive step toward the full restoration of relations between the peoples sharing the extensive border region, promoting “twinning” and a “shared vision”.

The first strategic and priority action stemming from the agreement is the commitment to work toward the speedy reopening of consulates in their respective jurisdictions, it was explained. Thus, Caracas will be reopening consulates in Vichada and Guainía, while a Colombian mission will be functioning again shortly in Amazonas. The measure was considered a crucial step toward normalizing and revitalizing diplomatic relations and providing necessary support to the border communities.

”This means that very soon we will once again have Venezuelan consulates operating in these departments (Vichada and Guainía) and Colombian consulates in our state of Amazonas,” Rodríguez said in a joint statement.

The local leaders reaffirmed their commitment to cooperation, exchange, and mutual well-being, laying the groundwork for a new stage of integration and development in the region.

 

 

US strikes another alleged drug boat in Caribbean Sea

October 6th 2025 –

US President Donald Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth publicly confirmed and defended the recent attacks on vessels in the Caribbean Sea, escalating the administration’s “war on drugs” by characterizing the cartels as “narco-terrorists” and the operations as “acts of war.”

Trump announced at a US Navy ceremony in Norfolk, Virginia, that the Army had attacked another vessel on Saturday night (making it the fifth strike in recent weeks), claiming the mission was successfully “blowing the cartel terrorists out of the water.”

The operations were so successful that there are now “no more boats” in that area, stating, “we are having difficulty finding them.”

Due to the perceived success at sea, Trump issued a warning: “They’re not coming by sea anymore, so now we’ll have to start looking on land.”

At least 21 people have died in the strikes so far. Trump justified the actions by calling them “an act of kindness,” claiming that “each of those boats is responsible for the death of 25,000 Americans and families.”

Hegseth defended the strikes as “legitimate and clean attacks in defense of the homeland.” The vessels were legitimate targets because US intelligence confirmed they were carrying substantial narcotics, their crews were therefore “narco-terrorists,” and they were operating on a known trafficking route. He justified the policy by stating that classifying the targets as “narco-terrorists” makes the action an “act of war,” which allows the military —rather than a law enforcement agency— to operate under a “completely different set of rules,” essentially claiming the right to carry out lethal operations without a prior trial.

The most recent confirmed previous strike occurred on Friday, killing the 4 crew members of the vessel. The US has confirmed at least four deadly strikes in recent weeks.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio backed the actions, stating that the forces have “tremendous confidence” in their intelligence and that the measure is already having a “dramatic impact” on reducing drug departures. Critics, including the United Nations (UN), condemned the strikes as extrajudicial executions that violate international law.

 

 

 

 

Dominican Republic, IDB to Host CEO Summit of the Americas

May 29, 2025 SANTO DOMINGO –

The Government of the Dominican Republic and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) will co-host the 5th CEO Summit of the Americas on December 3-4 in Punta Cana.

The event, taking place on the eve of the Summit of the Americas, will convene leading business executives and heads of state from across the region to advance a shared agenda for private-sector-led development. Discussions will center on key themes: importance of critical minerals, enabling conditions for investment – including security – and the future of financial systems in Latin America and the Caribbean, among others.

“We are excited to announce that, fulfilling our commitment to provide a space for dialogue between Governments and the private sector, we will work with the Inter-American Development Bank to host the 5th CEO Summit of the Americas,” said Roberto Álvarez, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Dominican Republic.

“Strong collaboration between businesses and government is essential to unlocking private sector–led development. The CEO Summit of the Americas is a unique platform to turn dialogue into concrete opportunities in key areas of potential in the region. We’re honored to co-host it with the government of the Dominican Republic,” said IDB President Ilan Goldfajn.

Leading up to the event, over 70 companies and business associations met in Santo Domingo as part of the Americas Business Dialogue (ABD) – a private-sector-led initiative facilitated by the IDB to promote high-level exchange between governments and businesses in the region. The meeting focused on finalizing recommendations for the CEO Summit and the broader Summit of the Americas.

This will be the fourth CEO Summit organized by the IDB.  ceosummit@iadb.org.

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is devoted to improving lives across Latin America and the Caribbean. Founded in 1959, the IDB works with the region’s public sector to design and enable impactful, innovative solutions for sustainable and inclusive development. Leveraging financing, technical expertise and knowledge, it promotes growth and well-being in 26 countries.

Contact Cavelier,Andres acavelier@iadb.org

 

 

 

2025 Summit of the Americas

October 05, 2025 (By Sir Ronald Sanders )

The Dominican Republic (DR) is hosting the 2025 Summit of the Americas – a gathering of the Heads of State and Government of 32 countries of the Western Hemisphere.   On September 30, the Government of the DR, publicly stated that Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela will not be invited to the 2025 Summit of the Americas.

The Government was careful to explain that its choice is necessary to “ensure the widest possible political dialogue” and to “guarantee the success of the Summit.” It also makes clear that this decision “does not interfere with bilateral relations” with any of the three countries.

This decision is likely to provoke a response similar to that seen at the 2022 Summit in Los Angeles, when the U.S. administration of Joe Biden did not invite the same three governments.

Calls for Heads of Government to stay away followed, and a few did so in protest at the non-invitation of Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, Nicaragua’s President Daniel Ortega Saavedra, and Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro Moros.

Leaders should think hard before staying away from the 2025 Summit. Global and regional conditions have shifted: wars in the Middle East and Europe cast economic and security shadows across the Americas; within the hemisphere, ideological rifts are reopening. This is precisely the moment for leaders to meet— to manage differences, protect interests, and act in the interest of all the peoples of the Americas.

Attendance is leverage, not endorsement. Leaders who believe that Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela should be invited should say so at the Summit, in direct terms.

Refusing to attend neither alters the guest list nor delivers gains for the peoples of the Americas; it only removes strong national voices from the room where decisions and deals are made.The agenda in Punta Cana in the DR is built around four urgent security pillars:

1. 1. 1. citizen security,
      2. energy security,
      3. water security, and
      4. food security.

Across reputable global assessments, Latin America and the Caribbean ranks poorly on all four:

1. 1. 1. the region bears the world’s highest homicide burden; most countries are not water-secure;
      2. energy-transition progress and grid reliability lag behind other regions;  They determine whether freedom of speech is preserved; whether hospitals, schools and hotels have electricity;
      3. whether water pipes run and crops survive;and the cost of a healthy diet is the highest in the world, alongside elevated food-insecurity rates.
      4. whether households have access to food at prices they can afford.

The DR government put out the suggested theme for the Summit with these four pillars since February and the first draft of a possible Declaration from the Summit was issued in June.   Since September 11, government representatives of the 32 countries have been negotiating the outcome document.

A major initiative at this Summit is the CEO Convocation co-hosted with the Inter-American Development Bank. That platform is designed for public authorities and private capital to assemble the financing and execution capacity that the four pillars require.

Public–private partnerships, built transparently and on fair terms, can shorten delivery timelines and spread costs sensibly. The CEO meeting is where those partnerships can be made real.

Another imperative is greater trade and economic integration across Latin America and the Caribbean. Integration scales markets, deepens and de-risks supply chains, and accelerates the spread of knowledge and expertise.

Practical steps such as, customs facilitation, reliable sea- and air-links, and competitively priced access to infrastructure inputs, are all matters leaders should use the Summit to agree and advance.

Apart from these general considerations, Caribbean leaders should be at the Summit to focus on particular Caribbean concerns. The recent UN Security Council decision on Haiti must be advanced with practical timelines, resources, and roles.

Understanding and progress are also needed on differences over climate change and sustainable development, where positions diverge but impacts converge. The negotiations in the Summit Implementation Review Group (SIRG), made up of all the independent states of the Americas except Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, began on September 11 and have yet to resolve differences on these points at the technical level.

It may take direct consultation by leaders to agree on actions that can be taken.  The last Summit, despite political controversy, still produced outcomes of value, including climate- and energy-cooperation channels that mobilized technical support and investment for Caribbean states. The lesson is straightforward: even when politics creates dissonance, useful progress is possible when leaders are present, prepared, and focused.

There is a wider principle that should be stated; movement toward greater democracy and respect for human, civil, and political rights is necessary for broad-based development and for international financial support.

In Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, tangible steps in that direction would encourage broader backing across the hemisphere. In Venezuela’s case specifically, military threats against Guyana should give way to a peaceful, lawful path under international law and the process of the International Court of Justice that the UN Secretary-General authorized and CARICOM governments have endorsed.

It is understood that President Trump may not attend for security reasons – a concern that might yet be resolved. Nonetheless, senior U.S. representation is expected; at minimum Secretary of State Marco Rubio or Vice President Vance, or both. The margins of the Summit are well-suited to quiet, candid exchanges with U.S. principals on the effects of U.S. policy across the hemisphere; conversations that can yield practical attention to pressing issues.

This is a meeting to be present, active, and speaking: the DR government has set a constructive path; its non-invitations to Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela are framed as a Summit-specific decision, without prejudice to bilateral relations. Leaders should use that path to pursue national interests and advance hemispheric cooperation. Not attending leaves influence at the table in other hands. Attending, and doing the work, serves the people of the Americas.

“We are excited to announce that, fulfilling our commitment to provide a space for dialogue between Governments and the private sector, we will work with the Inter-American Development Bank to host the 5th CEO Summit of the Americas,” said Roberto Álvarez, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Dominican Republic.

“Strong collaboration between businesses and government is essential to unlocking private sector–led development. The CEO Summit of the Americas is a unique platform to turn dialogue into concrete opportunities in key areas of potential in the region. We’re honored to co-host it with the government of the Dominican Republic,” said IDB President Ilan Goldfajn.

Leading up to the event, over 70 companies and business associations met in Santo Domingo as part of the Americas Business Dialogue (ABD) – a private-sector-led initiative facilitated by the IDB to promote high-level exchange between governments and businesses in the region. The meeting focused on finalizing recommendations for the CEO Summit and the broader Summit of the Americas. This will be the fourth CEO Summit organized by the IDB.

For additional information, write to ceosummit@iadb.org.

About the IDB
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is devoted to improving lives across Latin America and the Caribbean. Founded in 1959, the IDB works with the region’s public sector to design and enable impactful, innovative solutions for sustainable and inclusive development. Leveraging financing, technical expertise and knowledge, it promotes growth and well-being in 26 countries.

acavelier@iadb.orgvious

 

 

 

 

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2025 Article IV Consultation with Colombia

Country Report No. 2025/281 : Colombia: Selected Issues
Summary: 2025 Selected Issues

Country Report No. 2025/280 : Colombia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia

Summary:

• Colombia enters a pre-electoral year amid a mixed economic backdrop. Economic growth has strengthened somewhat while inflation is gradually falling, aided by appropriately tight monetary policy.
• Widening fiscal deficit and rising debt levels have led to elevated sovereign spreads and private investment remains weak amid lingering concerns and uncertainties over the direction of policies.
• Colombia Cancels the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement with the IMF

 

 

 

Why Venezuelan gas matters

Rushton Paray, former Mayaro MP
October 4, 2025

The Dragon gas deal is a sharp example of ambition undercut by poor diplomacy. Conceived in 2018 under the Rowley administration, the agreement between Trinidad and Tobago, Shell and Venezuela’s PDVSA sought to tap the offshore Dragon natural gas field, which holds an estimated four trillion cubic feet of reserves.

It was hailed as a bold solution to the country’s gas shortages. Today, the deal is stalled, with US sanction waivers uncertain and Venezuela cautious. For Trinidad and Tobago, the project has become more a symbol of political miscalculation than a pathway to energy security.

The Dragon agreement was formalised in August 2018. Gas from Venezuela’s Paria Peninsula was to be piped to Shell’s Hibiscus platform off Trinidad for processing and eventual export as LNG.

The cost was pegged above US$1 billion, with long-term plans for up to 350 million cubic feet per day. Realistic early flows, however, were closer to 200 million cubic feet per day. Even at full output,

Dragon was never enough to solve the country’s structural gas shortfall.The Rowley administration nonetheless framed Dragon as a breakthrough, presenting it as the fix for industrial gas shortages. That narrative ignored both the fragile politics of US-Venezuela relations and the poor condition of PDVSA.

By placing “all eggs in the Dragon basket”, as critics later described it, the Government took a risky bet without building contingency plans. When Washington revoked the waiver in April 2025, the gamble collapsed.

The public, already frustrated by curbed LNG production and factory slowdowns, saw Dragon’s collapse not as an inevitable geopolitical event, but as a failure of foresight and communication. Years of hype gave way to disillusionment. The promise of Dragon had been exaggerated, while its risks were downplayed.

The credibility of the State’s energy leadership took a severe hit.This is the difficult legacy facing Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar. Her Government has approached Dragon with greater caution, refusing to repeat the mistake of overselling. Instead of bold declarations, her administration managed expectations by acknowledging the fragility of the deal, while still seeking opportunities to keep it alive. Talks this month in Washington reframed Dragon as a stabiliser for the region’s energy security rather than a lifeline for Caracas. This pragmatic diplomacy helped to secure a provisional extension of US support, even if only short-term.

This shift has been important for rebuilding public trust. The Energy Chamber has expressed cautious optimism, noting dialogue is better than grandstanding. By showing restraint and pursuing parallel options, Persad-Bissessar’s team has begun to reverse the doubt left behind. Still, the challenges remain steep. PDVSA remains financially crippled, while Venezuela’s leadership is more focused on reviving crude oil exports than expanding gas development. Tensions between Port of Spain and Caracas have also sharpened, with hostile rhetoric from Venezuelan officials making cooperation fragile.

Even if revived, Dragon’s contribution would be modest. At best, its 350 million cubic feet per day covers about 10% to 15% of past production highs. Atlantic LNG requires up to two billion cubic feet per day to run at full capacity, but Trinidad and Tobago is running several hundred million cubic feet short. That underutilisation already costs the economy more than a billion US dollars annually in lost LNG exports. Dragon, therefore, could ease pressure, but it cannot transform the outlook. The project is better seen as a supplemental supply, not a cornerstone.

The risks also remain significant. The development is entirely dependent on Venezuelan cooperation. Any change in sanctions, political unrest in Caracas, or disputes over revenue-sharing could derail progress. Costs, already above US$1 billion, are rising after delays. Shell has slowed its involvement, waiting for clearer signals from both Washington and Caracas. With so much uncertainty, Dragon cannot be the main pillar of policy.

What Trinidad and Tobago needs is independence from this uncertainty. Opportunities already exist. The January 2025 deepwater bid round offered 26 blocks with more than ten trillion cubic feet of potential reserves. If exploration succeeds, these reserves could provide long-term supply without political entanglements. Shell’s planned Manatee development is another major project that could add meaningful volumes.

Regional partnerships also hold promise. Gas imports from Guyana and Colombia could provide up to 500 million cubic feet per day, strengthening regional cooperation without sanction risk. At the same time, renewable projects can help ease the country’s heavy reliance on gas. Solar plants in Tobago and wind projects offshore could offset 20% of demand over the next decade, freeing more gas for exports and revenue.

The Dragon gas deal is a reminder that reckless diplomacy can weaken national interests. Oversold under the Rowley administration and crippled by sanctions, it has become less about gas supply and more about lessons in leadership. Persad-Bissessar’s Government has chosen a steadier course, acknowledging the limits of Dragon while pursuing broader, more reliable paths.

The choice is no longer whether to bet everything on Dragon. The choice is whether to build a diversified energy future that draws from deepwater, regional ties, and renewables. By doing so, Trinidad and Tobago can rebuild its reputation as a serious energy player, not one tied to fragile deals with unreliable partners.

The Dragon gas deal shows the risks of ambition unchecked by realism. It demonstrates how short-term political theatre can leave lasting damage. But it also shows that careful diplomacy, diversification, and open communication can restore confidence. Trinidad and Tobago must treat Dragon as one option, not the solution. Only then can the country secure an energy future built on stability and independence.

 

 

 

 

US regime change in Venezuela

6 October
DR VISHNU BISRAM

The New York Times (Sept 30) front page reported that the US administration is making plans to topple the Maduro regime because of the threat it poses to America – narco trafficking as well as geo-strategic. Other publications in Europe and the Middle East have similar reports.

Maduro has a very cosy relationship with nemeses of the US including Cuba, Russia, Iran, and China; the latter ’s increasing presence in the Caribbean is seen as a geo-strategic problem for America. China’s presence is a challenge to the US foreign policy known as the Monroe Doctrine.

Removing Maduro is seen as weakening China’s and Russia’s influence in the region. Washington wants to send a clear message on the outside threat posed to American dominance in the region. Action against Maduro sends a clear message to leftists in the region. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is the leading voice to remove Maduro from office, in addition to dismantling the narco-criminal infrastructure. Rubio has been the driving force to oust Maduro since the first Trump term some eight years ago when he was a senator from Florida. Many Venezuelans live in Florida, which is also home to the anti-communist Cubans who generally support Republicans. Rubio has been smartly playing domestic politics. He has been a savvy politician.

The Times stated that the US will escalate military pressure to try to force Maduro out. Rubio argues that Maduro is an illegitimate leader who oversees the export of drugs to the US, which he says poses an imminent threat to the US and the region. Trump stated that some 100,000 Americans die from narcotics annually.

It is asserted that because “Maduro sits atop Venezuela’s cartel network, they can argue that removing him from power is ultimately a counter-narcotics operation.” In 2020, the Justice Department indicted Maduro and other Venezuelan officials on drug trafficking charges. And Rubio has stated that Maduro is a “fugitive from American justice.”

The American met with Venezuelan opposition figures last May. Venezuelans have been speaking with American officials. Maduro is being compared with late Libyan president Muammar Gaddafi, Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, and Panama’s Manuel Noriega by members of the Trump administration and members of Congress. (The US under George HW Bush toppled Noriega over drug trafficking; he spent decades in a US prison.)

The US military presence in the region is steadily climbing – from 4,500 to 6,500 troops – with large numbers of equipment, aircraft carriers, submarines, etc for any operation. The Venezuelan military is no match for US military technology; a small number of forces can remove Maduro from office. The Times stated that efforts are being made to oust the Venezuelan president without resorting to force. Military action is the last resort.

Regime change will benefit Venezuelans and the region. Venezuela has vast oil reserves, larger than Guyana and in shallow water, although its crude is heavier than Guyana’s.

Chevron, ExxonMobil, and ConocoPhillips invested heavily in Venezuela. Their assets were nationalised without fair compensation. They would love to see Maduro go, enabling them to recover assets. Large amounts of revenue will flow from rapid production of oil and gas.

Exxon quickly developed Guyana’s oil and gas in deep waters. It will perform wonders in less challenging waters, producing numerous barrels of oil. Maduro’s departure will also give Exxon greater security to increase production in Guyana; Exxon will no longer have to worry about Maduro threatening its production. Increased production means prices for oil and gas would fall, benefiting consumers. Oil production will benefit all of Venezuela as opposed currently to a small number of officials.

The problem facing Washington and Venezuela’s neighbours is what to do if and when Maduro falls. It will create chaos that TT and Guyana are not prepared to address. The two countries are not prepared to handle tens of thousands of refugees.

A decade ago, the government and opposition in Guyana would have spoken out against any military action against Venezuela’s leaders, describing it as imperialism. When a handful of us supported Washington against the threat of communism in Guyana and the region, we were called imperialists. But now politicians in Guyana have no issue with an American presence in Venezuela and seeing the back of Maduro.

Leftist Guyanese are no longer supporting socialism in Venezuela. And only a few leftist politicians in the region are quietly backing Maduro. Trump does not take too kindly to any regional politicians defying him. Aid and visas are on the line.

Washington stated that force is an option to guarantee prosperity in the region. Reports said a swift handover of power at Miraflores Palace is being talked about. Regime change could also lead to stability over the border controversy with Guyana and perhaps stop the flow of Venezuelans into Trinidad.

 

 

 

 

T&T energy achievement

October 2, 2025

National Gas Corporation (NGC) chairman Gerald Ramdeen praised Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar for securing US backing for the cross-border Dragon gas project, calling it

“the single most important and significant achievement by a sitting prime minister towards providing energy security to this nation and the region.”

“Our Prime Minister, against all odds, has delivered on her promise to return Trinidad and Tobago to its rightful position as this region’s energy hub and leader in the development of hydrocarbon resources throughout the Caribbean and wider region.”

NGC issued a release congratulating Persad-Bissessar on her “historic achievement” in securing the support of the United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio for approval of the relevant Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) licences to enable the development of cross-border hydrocarbon projects with Venezuela, including the Dragon gas field.

After the meeting, a statement from principal deputy spokesperson Tommy Pigott said that Secretary Rubio acknowledged the importance of energy security for Trinidad and Tobago’s economic prosperity and regional stability.

“He outlined US support for the Government’s Dragon gas proposal and steps to ensure it will not provide significant benefit to the Maduro regime. The Secretary emphasised that deepening US–Trinidad and Tobago cooperation will be critical to disrupting narcotrafficking networks, strengthening regional security, and safeguarding our region.”

Following the meeting, the Government was informed that the US Secretary of State supports approving the relevant OFAC licences to initiate discussions on developing cross-border hydrocarbons.

“The approval of these licenses will open the door for this country, in conjunction with our international partners and the Venezuelan government, to explore and bring to market gas from the Dragon and Manakin-Cocuina gas fields. This provides NGC with the foundation that it requires to now advance other projects in conjunction with the Venezuelan government that will increase gas supply and rejuvenatethe energy sector. These projects will bring benefits to our country, the Venezuelan people and indirectly, the United States of America.”

 

 

 

 

Stop putting words in PM’s mouth

October 5, 2025 Dr Indera Sagewan

Two political analysts have criticised former prime minister and ener­gy minister Stuart Young for accusing Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar of gaslighting the population over negotiations for the Dragon gas field.

Young said, “So no OFAC licence in hand, even though you said you obtained an OFAC licence for Dragon when you arrived in TT on Wednesday night. Therefore, the Government does not know the terms of what they are being given to work with by OFAC and that is only one part of the equation because Venezuela owns the Dragon gas field.

“Then you are counting on Shell to talk to Venezuela as the owners of the gas and expect Shell to negotiate for TT? It is the Government’s duty to protect TT and to lead and get the best terms for TT you cannot count on a multinational company to do that. So you selling out once again, just like you did between 2010-2015 when you gave away all our gas revenues until 2025 with ‘incentives’.

“Then you gaslight the population and say no harsh and disrespectful language has been used by yourself as Prime Minister and many of your ministers in attacking the Venezuelan leadership over the years and even over the past few weeks, blaming the media for reporting what you and your ministers said. Really, Mrs Persad-Bissessar?”

“Lastly, you refuse to answer the media when asked if you recognise President Maduro as the President of Venezuela. Your position is clear for years so why are you ducking now? The charade, hypocrisy and continued belief that citizens are not intelligent must end.”

Young’s statement was described as contradictory to what the Prime Minister said during a news confe­rence last week after arriving from Washington, DC, where she addressed the United Nations General Assembly and also held meetings with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The Prime Minister said the resurrection of the Dragon gas arrangement was a “big win” for T&T. She told the media that the details of the OFAC licence were still to be worked out. She said the Government will soon have the OFAC licence. Two political analysts believe Young’s comments were aimed at undermining the public’s trust in the current administration.

Dr Indera Sagewan said that Young’s statements did not repre­sent what the Prime Minister said.

“What exactly did the Prime Minister say? What did she say? I think it will be really good if members of the Opposition, in this case former prime minister Stuart Young, could stop putting words in the Prime Minister’s mouth and respond to what she actually said with respect to the OFAC licence.

“There is a process and, as she said, it is in the process. She expects it will happen soon but it has not yet happened, which is a reasonable answer to that question. In all fairness, she said it is ongoing and, obviously, terms and conditions must be negotiated.

“The media should ask Mr Young how long did it take his government to have an OFAC licence in hand. Did he wave a magic wand? He knows that it doesn’t happen like that. I have not heard the Prime Minister use any disrespectful language with respect to any member of the Venezuelan government. She gave her support for the US with respect to what they are doing that has to do with drugs and criminal acti­vity and she has always maintained that.”

Young’s statement about Persad-­Bissessar counting on Shell to talk to Venezuela as the owners of the gas, and expecting Shell to negotiate for T&T, was also contradictory to what Persad-Bissessar said.

“The Prime Minister also made it clear that she is prepared to go to Venezuela for negotiation talks. What is important is that the Government has brought back the Dragon deal onto the table, and the Government is committed to moving forward to making it a reality.

“ Maduro himself said he was ta­king a wait-and-see approach, which suggests that he is willing. It is in Venezuela’s interest to monetise this, and it is just a matter of working through the details. But I think that we have to trust that all parties involved will seek the best way forward.”

Dr Shane Mohammed also argued that Young was crea­ting a false narrative for political gain as the Tobago House of Assem­bly (THA) election approaches.

“What he is doing now is simply trying to create a false narrative that things are bad. He needs to admit that their government made things bad for us geopolitically, geoeconomically and so­cially domestically and, we lost international respect, regard and prestige. And we have to do things differently and understand what is happening globally and position ourselves tactfully and strategically in order to regain our posture….

The THA election is upon us, and this is also to make the Government look bad, so that’s where we are. I don’t believe for a split second at this stage of the game that politicians, professional and academics don’t fully understand that we are in the midst of very volatile, very different, very unpredictable geopolitics.

“With that in mind, I also don’t believe that the Prime Minister had the time to sit down and misrepresent, to grand charge, to beat around the bush as it pertains to the future and the prosperity of T&T. I want to remind Mr Young that it was under his leadership that T&T lost OFAC, and we need to ask ourselves why did T&T lose the OFAC licence under his leadership and under the People’s National Movement government.”

 

 

 

Maduro expands powers with new state of emergency in Venezuela

September 30th 2025 –

Tensions between Caracas and Washington have escalated since the U.S. deployed destroyers and aircraft in the Caribbean for anti-drug operations

Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro decreed a state of emergency due to “external commotion,” granting himself broad powers to confront what he describes as “U.S. aggression.” The measure, effective for an initial 90 days and renewable, authorizes the military control of public services, strategic industries, and the closure of borders.

“This decree takes immediate effect to give full powers to President Nicolás Maduro to deploy the Armed Forces across the country and militarily take over all service infrastructures,” explained Vice President Delcy Rodríguez.

Maduro declared that “Venezuela will never be humiliated by any empire” and warned that any U.S. attack would trigger “a continental-scale war.” He also called for national unity: “The entire nation will have the backing, protection, and mobilization of all Venezuelan society to respond to threats.”

Tensions between Caracas and Washington have escalated since the U.S. deployed destroyers and aircraft in the Caribbean for anti-drug operations. President Donald Trump has accused Maduro of leading the so-called “Cartel of the Suns,” a network allegedly linked to cocaine trafficking. In response, the government has stepped up the enlistment of militia and military drills nationwide. However, the new decree imposes further restrictions on constitutional rights and strengthens state control over Venezuelan society.

 

 

 

Kamla deserves her flowers

4 October

However one chooses to exist, thrive or posture, there is a political truth that cannot be avoided. Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s comeback is a slam dunk in politics. No other political leader recorded in the history of local politics has done what the Prime Minister was able to achieve as the first female political leader of a major political party; then the first female opposition leader; then the first female prime minister of Trinidad and Tobago. No other leader in our local arena has taken that particular journey in four months. Kamla was voted in as political leader of the United National Congress (UNC) on January 24, 2010, appointed as opposition leader on February 25, 2010, and then won the general election on May 24, 2010, to become prime minister.

Regardless of political affiliation, few can truly deny the greatness of that reality. Subsequently, election defeat came in 2015 and again in 2020, caused the UNC to spend ten years in opposition. That was enough to cause any political leader to be voted out by their membership. The UNC did not win an election in ten years, losing local and general elections.

Kamla was accused and labelled by some persons as a drunk, old, unfit, unhealthy and a “never again”. Regardless of the brutal and consistent verbal attacks in the political gayelle, Kamla continued to be elected as political leader by UNC membership. Some said the UNC would continue to lose.

Then came the greatest unexpected political comeback of all time in 2025. An early general election was called, and while some were expecting an easy victory over an unprepared party in opposition, Kamla led the UNC to victory with an unprecedented political marketing campaign. It seems like Kamla was “playing dead to catch corbeaux alive”.

The UNC rebranded and was no longer just talking to their base as expected, but gained widespread crossover appeal outside of their traditional base. The UNC utilised technology, influencers, new social media platforms and new styles of campaigning.

Kamla’s platform leadership saw bold, unapologetic statements such as “load up d ’matic” and “empty d clip” to defend your family when they introduced stand-your-ground legislation and more licensed firearms.

Her platform reminded the population where she started out—as a roti vendor with her mother in South. Persad-Bissessar regained her fire and projected the UNC as the Big Bad UNC, not afraid of their political opponents; and the rest is history.

To her credit, Kamla’s story is one which has already earned her a special place in our political history. While politically divided based on many things, facts are facts, and they are stubborn. The fact is, Kamla deserves her flowers for being a leader who made the greatest political comeback of our time. Let’s see where her journey leads from there.

 

 

 

Rebirth of Dragon deal

4 October

Before Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar returned from her productive trip to New York and Washington, DC, headlines were hailing the resurrection of the Dragon gas deal with Venezuela. The undertaking by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to breathe new life into the previously dead Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) licences marks a remarkable diplomatic win for Trinidad and Tobago.>

The Prime Minister must be roundly congratulated for her tactful manoeuvring of the political minefield off our northern coastal border. While there is much work to be done to fully resurrect this critical gas deal, the fact that after only one meeting, the Dragon is growling again is a signal accomplishment.   Yet, again, this lady, small in frame but powerful in skill and intellect, silenced the armchair experts and analysts. After a masterful speech in New York, she travelled to Washington, DC, and nailed it again.

The naysayers have begun to liberally apply their favourite conjunction—“but” this and “but” that. A schoolboy in a Caribbean Studies class could tell the media that given the unprovoked and undiplomatic shots across the bow from Cara­cas, terse negotiations may lie ahead.

What is important is that Persad-Bissessar has prioritised the economic interests of T&T and opened a door to prosperity that was hitherto shut. I wonder if our Opposition Leader factored this into her high-level energy talks in New York? The diplomatic approach to Venezuela has been prefaced by an iron-willed acknowledgement of our sovereignty, together with a shrewd pragmatism that now permits a deal. Our future discussions with Venezuela must drown out the noise and conflate both sets of national interests, given the no objection of the US.

Leaders like Venezuela Pre­sident Nicolas Maduro, despite their posturing, recognise and respect strong counterparts like Persad-Bissessar. She has always balanced firmness with courtesy, and as in this matter, worn a velvet glove over a hand of steel. Our country has already reportedly spent millions on this deal. It took resolve to salvage it with the US. T&T must win! There will be no silly conga lines or drinking of cocuy.

Hopefully, the dragon under the PNM (People’s National Movement) will now be converted to million-dollar emissions and consequential economic strength and prospe­rity under the UNC (Uni­ted National Congress).

 

 

 

Kamla right to back US policies

4 October

PRIME Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar has been criticised for last week’s speech at the United Nations General Assembly that endorsed the American plan of targeting narco-­traffickers in Venezuela and the authoritarian Nicolas Maduro regime.

Persad-Bissessar’s support for the US in its planned action against Venezuela is a very complex issue. She sees narco-trafficking as threatening the region as a Zone of Peace. Several of her Caricom colleagues, as well as critics and detractors, take the opposite position: that the American military strikes on narco-boats and planned strikes on Venezuela disrupt the area as a Zone of Peace.

The PM is right in how she sees the threat posed by Venezuela to T&T. The PM has the backing of the population in her pro-American position, as well as standing up to Venezuela, whose criminal gangs have posed a serious threat to peace and stability in T&T and the region as well.

It must not be forgotten that a government pursues the interests of its nation. Persad-Bissessar and her Government know what’s best for the country and how to champion its interests, just like Dr Keith Rowley and his administration felt when they ran the affairs of the nation. She has her own reading of the security challenges and the concept of a Zone of Peace in T&T and the Caribbean.

International relations and diplomacy in the region, as pursued by the USA, is not the same as it was when Dr Rowley led the government. US President Donald Trump pursues a narrow, ultra-nationalist American agenda and invokes punitive measures against those (including leaders, countries, and people) who oppose American interests. Thus, Persad-Bissessar must tread carefully in T&T’s foreign policy vis-à-vis USA, especially on Venezuela.

Besides, Venezuelan officials a couple months ago made threatening statements against T&T. Persad-Bissessar’s administration needs American support against Maduro’s threats.

Also, it must not be forgotten that a few hundred thousand Trinbagonians live in America, with hundreds of thousands more having visas to visit, work, and study in the US; no policy should be taken that would jeopardise their status or lead to the cancellation of visas.

Persad-Bissessar must not pander to Caricom leaders who cloak self-interest with regional interests and jeopardise relations with Trump. The PM has the backing of Washington, which matters more than what her Caricom colleagues say on matters pertaining to Venezuela and the region as a Zone of Peace.

On Venezuela, T&T can’t afford to be “neutral” when tens of thousands of Venezuelans, criminal gangs, drug traffickers and their goods, and other negative elements have been streaming across the porous water border. Persad-Bissessar and her Government need American support to stem the tide against T&T. And President Trump values the support of T&T and the neighbours of Venezuela to go after narco-traffickers. Guyana is supporting the American position. T&T must do the same.

Other Caricom countries have their own national interests that don’t coincide with those of T&T. T&T is feeling the pressure of Venezuelan criminal gangs operating here and is also facing America’s stiff tariffs, the relief of which is being discussed in Washington. T&T must purse a course of action and a foreign policy that is in its best interests, not what is in the interests of other member states of Caricom that don’t share any border with Venezuela and whose countries are not threatened by Venezuelan criminal gangs and narco-traffickers.

Persad-­Bissessar has taken a position that she thinks will help to secure the economic and strategic interests of T&T. Unlike most of her Caricom colleagues, she ties peace and security with narco-trafficking and organised crime, as well as with border conflicts and threats from the Venezuelan regime. She smartly supports the attacks (fighting fire with fire) on drug boats off T&T and Venezuela.

That is high, savvy politics coming from someone who masters current US foreign policy in the region. It is the right policy if T&T does not want to face the wrath of Washington. And besides, there is broad consensus (leaving out elements in the political Opposition) here for the support of the US because of the threat posed by the criminal elements of Venezuela crossing into T&T and a recent veiled threat by the Maduro regime against us.  In addition, she also has the full support of the diaspora in the US where she was warmly received.

Dr Vishnu Bisram

 

Is the new OFAC licence a Trojan horse?

04 October

Trinidad and Tobago must dispassionately assess the feasibility of the Rubio Dragon gift to pre-empt it from being seen as, and assume the image of a Trojan horse.

The current offer of the Dragon OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) licence brought home by Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar from her Washington meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has minimal prospects via Shell of reaching bilateral agreement stage.

This takes into account the increasing US threat and build-up of military forces against Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro, the hostile and adversarial level of current T&T-Venezuela relations, and the pro-US tone of T&T’s United Nations General Assembly statement.

If the OFAC licence were to be viewed in Caracas as a quid pro quo for T&T’s support for the current US naval blockade off Venezuela, then the reception in Caracas to this development will be less than lukewarm.

It cannot be business as usual with the threats of Venezuela resuming Spanish-empire control over T&T being issued by the Minister of Interior, Justice and Peace Diosdado Cabello Rondon and Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez.

Time and third-party diplomacy must be allowed to sanitise and calm the muddy and turbulent waters respectively of the Gulf of Paria before any Dragon rapprochement can be initiated with Caracas by T&T because the wounds are still too fresh.

Additionally, the US armada has to withdraw from the Caribbean Sea; and withdraw from posing any threat to the sovereignty and political in­dependence of Venezuela.

I am a bit confused as to what the US-imposed conditionality of no “significant benefit to the Maduro regime” means since millions of dollars have been already remitted to Caracas by the previous PNM (People’s National Movement) regime for the Dragon.

If the UNC (Uni­ted National Congress) Government were in constant contact with the US gov­ern­­ment just after April 28 to secure or activate the defunct Dragon gas licence deal, why did the T&T Government pronounce it as dead?

And, secondly, why did it adopt a strong, adver­sa­rial, use-of-force stance with Caracas when quiet diplomacy conducted with Venezuela Vice-President Delcy Rodriguez could have been used to clinch the Dragon gas deal?

It just does not add up. It takes two to tango.

This is a call for sensitivity, accountability, consistency, damage control, and to factor in the geo-strategic imperatives and diplomacy into the forging of further T&T-Venezuela relations.

Stephen Kangal

 

 

 

NGC congratulates PM on OFAC licence approval

Clint Chan Tack, 02 October 2025

THE National Gas Company (NGC) has congratulated Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar, following announcements by the Office of the Prime Minister (OPM) and the US State Department on September 30 that the Dragon gas project has been resurrected.

These announcements were made after a meeting in Washington, DC, between Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier that day.

The OPM statement said after the meeting, government was informed that Rubio “supports the approval of the relevant Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) licences to begin discussions toward developing its cross-border hydrocarbons.” OFAC falls under the US Treasury Department.

A subsequent statement issued by Principal Deputy Spokesperson Tommy Pigott said Rubio “outlined US support for the government’s Dragon gas proposal and steps to ensure it will not provide significant benefit to the (Venezuelan President Nicholas) Maduro regime.“

Piggott said Rubio acknowledged the importance of energy security to Trinidad and Tobago’s economic prosperity and regional stability.

NGC said, “The approval of these licences will open the door for this country, in conjunction with our international partners and the Venezuelan government, to explore and bring to market gas from the Dragon and Manakin Cocuina Gas fields.”

NGC chairman Gerald Ramdeen said, “Our Prime Minister, against all odds, has delivered on her promise to return TT to its rightful position as this region’s energy hub and leader in the development of hydrocarbon resources throughout the Caribbean and wider region.”

At a news conference at Piarco International Airport on October 1, Persad-Bissessar said, “From day one when we came into office, we began work on that OFAC licence (for Dragon).”

She added, “We had discussions further with Secretary Rubio on other fields – Loran/Manatee and Cocuina-Manakin.”

The PM said she was prepared to fly to Venezuela to lead the energy negotiations with that country. She said Foreign Minister Sean Sobers as well as the energy ministers were also capable.

She said she does not anticipate any problems in hammering out a deal as the energy projects benefit Venezuela, TT and the US

 

 

 

 

Venezuelan minister claims US military aims to protect T&T

2025, 10/03

Minister of Interior, Justice and Peace Diosdado Cabello spoke at a United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) press conference in Caracas, Venezuela, on Monday.

Venezuela’s Justice Minister, Diosdado Cabello, claims that a former US intelligence officer believes the United States is sending a strong message to Venezuela not to interfere with Trinidad and Tobago.

On his weekly television programme, Cabello referred to comments made by a former US Naval Intelligence Officer, suggesting that the US could come to T&T’s aid in the event of any military conflict between Trinidad and Tobago and Venezuela.

He said the military expert believes that the Americans are issuing a strong warning to Cabello and other senior Venezuelan government officials not to interfere with T&T.

“Do you know that something is cooking behind your back in Venezuela? Today Jesús Romero, Commander of Intelligence of the US Southern Command, tells us about the scenarios… they are all experts in chaos, in lying, they are all swindlers,” Cabello said.

During his weekly TV programme, Con El Mazo Dando, on Wednesday night, Cabello played an excerpt of a recording from an interview with former US Naval Intelligence Commander Jesús Romero.

The excerpt was taken from an interview Romero gave earlier this week to Voz News, a conservative Spanish-language media outlet based in the United States.

On Tuesday, Voz News anchor and Executive Director, Karina Yapor, interviewed Romero on the newscast about the possibility that the administration of US President Donald Trump might initiate attacks within Venezuelan territory to combat the Tren de Aragua and the Cartel of the Suns.

Romero explained that the alleged recent shipment of US aircraft to Trinidad and Tobago was a direct response to threats made by the Venezuelan regime.

“The plane that flew from the United States to Trinidad and Tobago responds directly to the Cartels of the Suns’ threats, which had signalled to the Prime Minister of T&T that if they continued supporting the Americans in attacking Venezuela, they (Trinidad and Tobago) were going to find themselves in a very dangerous situation,” Romero said in Spanish during the excerpt played by Cabello.

In another recent interview, Romero referred to recently circulated videos showing Venezuelan military exercises on Patos Island—a small island located between Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago. The exercise was conducted by members of the Bolivarian Army of Venezuela, involving a ZU-23 anti-aircraft cannon fired from the deck of a Frailes-class vessel.

“It seems to me that they (the Americans) sent the plane to T&T, which was a message to Diosdado Cabello and Venezuela’s Defence Minister, Vladimir Padrino López,” Romero said.

Romero noted that the American military presence in the Caribbean is among the largest since the Second World War and said it is evident that the United States is likely to take serious action due to the suffering of Venezuelans.

“I think we all know that Venezuelans have suffered tremendously under this regime, and I think the most important thing is that they may have forgotten to report on the hundreds of deaths and the human rights violations that have pending cases before the United Nations.”

 

 

Many bridges to cross before Dragon deal can be hailed a success

2025. 10/03

Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar and her Government are obviously, and perhaps justifiably so, pleased with the results of the strategy pursued to have United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio say he will “support” T&T’s bid for a new Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) licence. Having the licence in hand is one step to finalisation of the arrangements to allow Venezuela’s Dragon gas to be processed here; but there are several others.

Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar adopted the path of damning President Nicolas Maduro and his government for allowing the drugs trade to pass through Venezuela on the way to the United States. Subserviently, the T&T Government supported with vigour the deadly strikes of the US gunboats made on a few pirogues and the passengers of the vessels, following the US claim that the vessels were taking the drugs to the mainland.

The PM subsequently dissed and trivialised Caricom’s policy of keeping the region as a Zone of Peace, and went as far as supporting the US denigration of Maduro as being part of the little-known Tren de Aragua gang. For that and more, the US placed a US$50 million bounty on Maduro’s head.

Our Prime Minister and her advisors seemingly calculated that such overwhelming support for the US in its attempt to have Maduro removed from office, would earn the Government in Port-of-Spain a second OFAC licence.

It should be considered, though, that what has gone on up to this point is merely the first stage of the move to have oil from Venezuela refined here.

The first, and most important reality, is that any deal must have the imprimatur of President Trump, as it is his war against the Venezuelan President which matters. And it must be remembered that Secretary of State Rubio gave the assurance to then prime minister Stuart Young that the US would do nothing to damage the T&T economy; that assurance did not hold.

Regarding the likely reaction of Caracas to the discourse between T&T and the US in recent weeks, it’s difficult to accept that the owners of the natural gas being negotiated for, i.e., the government and people of Venezuela, will agree to the stated US position that they must not benefit in any significant manner from the finalised arrangements with the Persad-Bissessar administration.

To agree to allow himself to be played as a fool by President Trump, supported by Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar, will take a lot of swallowing by the Venezuelan leader. The bottom line is that Mrs Persad-Bissessar and her Cabinet cannot be certain that the strategy used has worked; there is a long road ahead which requires far more than Energy Minister Dr Roodal Moonilal being prepared to go to Venezuela.

The other most important element of the match-play is whether President Trump will concede to allowing President Maduro any measure of economic success and the strengthening of his political position inside Venezuela, to enable him to remain in office.

There are, therefore, many bridges to cross before Prime Minister Persad-Bissessar and her Government can claim success for the strategy and positions adopted to gain a new OFAC licence to be able to accept and refine Venezuelan gas here.

 

 

 

Oil, Drugs, and Geopolitics in the Southern Caribbean

September 26, 2025
By: Scott B. MacDonald

Oil, crime, and US-China tensions collide in the Southern Caribbean, as Venezuela’s actions threaten regional stability and put the region’s booming energy sector in the crosshairs.

Shadows are being cast over the Southern Caribbean. Powerful criminal gangs trafficking in drugs, guns, and humans threaten vulnerable socio-political structures. Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro is aggressively claiming two-thirds of Guyana and has been happy to make his country a part of a major criminal transit zone.

Pressures are also mounting from an increasingly sharper-elbowed new Cold War between the United States and China. The US naval flotilla offshorethe South American country serves as a subtle reminder to Maduro and his foreign backers, China, Russia, and Iran, that their man in Caracas is vulnerable. Tension levels are apt to increase, keeping the Southern Caribbean on geopolitical radars.

Energy and US Interests in the Southern Caribbean

Washington’s hard line on Venezuela in the Southern Caribbean is not solely about drugs and putting the Maduro regime under pressure, but about safeguarding energy and US investment. The region consisting of Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago is sometimes referred to as the Southern Caribbean Energy Matrix.

While Guyana and Suriname have some of the world’s largest untouched forests, which are important as carbon sinks in dealing with climate change, they are also emerging oil and natural gas producers.

Guyana is the sixth-largest oil producer in the Western hemisphere and is rising. Its oil production and exports are surging, with output exceeding 660,000 barrels per day (bpd), and are expected to reach 1.3 million bpd by 2030. Natural gas is also coming online, and the rest of the world wants what the Southern Caribbean is selling.

In 2024, Europe was the largest purchaser of Guyana’s crude, with 66 percent of its exports heading in that direction, with other buyers including China, India, and the United States.

Suriname is on the same track as Guyana. France’s TotalEnergies and the United States’ APA together are investing $10.5 billion to bring major commercial quantities of oil online over the next several years.

Trinidad and Tobago exports natural gas and has a well-developed industrial infrastructure for hydrocarbon and related products. This could be important to the deepening of cross-border development of the region as a major cross-border energy hub.

There may be a global energy transition, but oil and gas are going to maintain an important role in energy generation for several more decades, and these countries will play a role.

The Region’s Role as a Trade Crossroads and Criminal Transit Zone

There is more to the Southern Caribbean than oil and gas. The region, including points north in the Greater and Lesser Antilles, functions as a major crossroads for legitimate trade and investment. The region sits as a critical waterway for goods heading from North and South America to Asia via the Panama Canal and the reverse, with Asian goods heading to Atlantic ports.

The Caribbean, as a crossroads, has other, less pristine dimensions as well. The region is a major transit route for guns heading south from the United States and drugs and humans heading north. The drugs, namely South American cocaine, are largely destined for the United States, though over the past several years the flow has increasingly headed to European users. Sadly, Guyana, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago are part of the transit route and suffer gang-related violence.

Venezuela also plays an important role in the illicit flow of drugs (more on this later).The Caribbean is particularly vulnerable to large-scale transitional criminal organizations. As a group, these countries have relatively small police and coastal forces, limited resources, and many governments are hard-pressed financially, with some of the world’s highest debt-to-GDP levels (Guyana is not one of those).

This has led to a challenge for Caribbean governments, including those in the Southern Caribbean, to contend with the illicit traffic of drugs, guns, and people.

Venezuela’s Role in Regional Destabilization

A major factor in criminal activity in the Southern Caribbean is Venezuela under Maduro. Nicolás Maduro, who came to power in 2013 when his predecessor Hugo Chávez died, has presided over a lengthy period of rule, which has been characterized by gross economic mismanagement, blatant electoral fraud, and heavy-handed repression.

The economy contracted by 75 percent between 2014 and 2021, while hyperinflation ripped up the value of the currency, radically shrinking the private sector and forcing over eight million Venezuelans to flee their country.

As Patrick Duddy, former US ambassador to Venezuela, notes: “As the Maduro government’s domestic support has evaporated and the consequence of its economic incompetence has become ever more evident, the regime has become increasingly and unapologetically authoritarian.”

The regime is backed by Cuban security forces, Chinese, Russian, and Iranian assistance, and has ties to transnational criminal groups operating out of Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru.

What keeps the Venezuelan economy afloat and, more narrowly, the Maduro regime in power is a combination of criminal activities, oil flows, and support from China, Cuba, Russia, and Iran. (CRIC) The Cartel of the Sun, which involves top officials in the Maduro regime and the armed forces, has been identified as a major player in the flow of illicit goods.

In July 2025, it was sanctioned as a Specifically Designated Global Terrorist, “headed by Nicolas Maduro Moros and other high-ranking Venezuelan individuals in the Maduro regime that provide material support to foreign terrorist organizations threatening the peace and security of the United States, namely Tren de Aragua and the Sinaloa Cartel.”

While the Maduro regime enables a major transit point for smuggled gold, drugs, and weapons, it is a destabilizing force in the rest of the Caribbean and Latin America as it meddles in the affairs of its neighbors.

It is the home base for Tren de Aragua, the major transnational criminal group that emerged in recent years from Venezuela and spread throughout the Western Hemisphere. It is alleged that Tren de Aragua was behind the 2024 murder of regime dissident Ronald Ojeda in Santiago, Chile.

Caracas has also worked with and provided support for Colombia’s guerrilla group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), which has become an important player in the international drug trade, gold smuggling, and kidnapping and extortion.

At the same time, Maduro has reactivated his country’s claim to two-thirds of neighboring Guyana. In this, he has built up military forces along the border, claimed that Guyana’s Essequibo region is now a department of Venezuela, and plans to hold elections there.

In a broader geopolitical sense, Venezuela has clearly sided with the explicitly anti-United States alliance of countries headed by China and Russia. It was an early member of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has been a vocal advocate for China in international forums, and remains one of the country’s major export and import partners.

US Policy and the Monroe Doctrine Reasserted

The Trump administration favors a more muscular approach to Venezuela, especially as it has espoused the need to reassert the Monroe Doctrine. Taking this into consideration, the Southern Caribbean is regarded as an important zone of influence.

There are four reasons for this: it has become a major oil and gas hub in which major US corporations are active, it is a source of US energy, China is active in the region and needs to be contained, and Venezuela can jeopardize the Southern Caribbean Energy Matrix’s operations.

US interest in the region was demonstrated in August 2025 by sending a small flotilla of ships offshore Venezuela with the stated purpose of going after drug traffickers. This is the largest deployment of US military might in decades, with the real purpose likely to pressure the Maduro regime.

While there is speculation that the Trump administration is contemplating a military intervention along the lines of Operation Just Cause in Panama in 1989 or the Urgent Fury involving Grenada in 1983, the naval exercise should be observed as part of a campaign of ratcheting up pressure with the intention of cracking the regime’s unity, particularly within the Venezuelan military.

While Maduro has a $50 million price on his head, the military could act to ease out the president and his cronies from power and hopefully open the door for a more democratic order. In this context, the Trump administration may regard regime change in Venezuela as low-hanging fruit in its hegemonic rivalry with China.

Considering the long history of American intervention in Caribbean affairs, regional governments are deeply concerned about the outcomes. No one wishes to see a return to the era of gunboat diplomacy or a shooting war, but there are some who favor a tougher line on Venezuela, a country that brought a flow of migrants, upped criminal activity, and complicated regional diplomacy.

Trinidad and Tobago’s government favors the tough line on Venezuela, although the action was condemned by the opposition. Guyana also favors a strong US presence, considering the ongoing Venezuelan threat to its sovereignty.

For its part, pro-Venezuelan St. Vincent and the Grenadines has been critical of US actions, while Grenada has offered to mediate.

While there is much focus on Venezuela, US pressure on the regime must be seen in the context of a larger US effort on the anti-narcotics front. Not only do Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, and Suriname have their drug problems and are open to US assistance, but Washington has also recently made agreements pertaining to drug policies with Mexico and Ecuador, as well as decertifying Colombia.

Moreover, the United States military’s augmented presence in the Caribbean, including the deployment of F-35 fighter craft to Puerto Rico, could also serve to warn Haiti’s criminal gangs that it has a greater capacity to reach out and touch them.

US Strategy and Regional Stability Looking ahead, the Trump administration will apply more pressure on the Maduro regime, using the threat of military force, while further tightening economic prospects. That could see a reduction of the South American country’s oil sales to the United States, which would mainly impact American energy company Chevron. However, Chevron recently bought another US energy company, Hess, giving it access to Guyana’s oil bonanza.

Although the more muscular US policy vis-à-vis Venezuela is causing nervousness throughout the Caribbean, a tougher stance on Caracas, including US support for the integrity of Guyana’s borders, is probably a more constructive outcome in the long run.

US actions in the Southern Caribbean are also likely to set the stage at the upcoming Summit of the Americas in December, being held in the Dominican Republic, a strong US ally. The Trump administration is letting the rest of the Americans know it is back as a stronger player (China and Russia take note), that a new round of the war on drugs is on, and that the Southern Caribbean is important to policymakers in Washington. There will be much more to come on this front.