Colombia: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission

February 14, 2024

[A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country.

Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.]

Managing the Transition to a More Sustainable Future

Bogotá, Colombia:

The Colombian economy is well-advanced in reaching a more sustainable level of economic activity, with marked reductions in inflation and the external current account deficit.

Appropriately tight macroeconomic policies over the last two years have allowed for an impressive reduction in domestic and external imbalances that had built up during 2021-22.

Real GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 1.2 percent in 2023 from the post-pandemic unsustainable high levels, led by a slowdown in domestic demand. Meanwhile, inflation has fallen from its peak of 13.3 percent (y/y) last March to 8.4 percent (y/y) in January this year, notwithstanding the effects of the significant but necessary increase in regulated prices.

Credit growth has also moderated from its peak of 18 percent (y/y) in August 2022 to 3 percent (y/y) in December 2023, owing not only to tight macroeconomic policies, but also higher provisioning requirements for consumer loans, and tightened lending standards. Finally, the current account deficit is estimated to have narrowed sharply to below 3 percent of GDP in 2023, from over 6 percent in 2022, owing to lower imports and strong tourism receipts, despite less favorable terms of trade.

The economy is set to continue along this trend in 2024 before reaching its potential over the medium term. Real GDP is expected to expand by 1.3 percent this year as macroeconomic policies gradually normalize. Private consumption, currently above pre-pandemic levels, is expected to moderate this year as households deleverage and labor market conditions soften, while private investment is expected to gradually recover, albeit remaining below pre-pandemic levels.

Inflation is projected to continue to decline, reaching around the 3-percent target by end-2025. The current account deficit is projected to increase slightly in 2024 to around 3¼ percent of GDP mainly on account of a recovery in imports, gradually converging to about 3¾ percent of GDP in the following years, largely financed by foreign direct investment. Over the medium-term, real GDP growth is projected to converge to 3 percent, supported also by large-scale infrastructure projects, further recovery in private investment, and the economic gains from integrating Venezuelan migrants.

While risks have receded, there are still more downside risks to the economy. Risk to the global economy have moderated, although they remain high. An intensification of geopolitical tensions around the world could further tighten global financial conditions, disrupt supply chains, and raise global food prices, adversely impacting Colombia’s growth outlook and adding to inflation pressures.

Domestically, a stronger-than-expected El Niño could also hinder economic activity and raise inflation. Weaker-than-expected private demand due to tighter financial conditions and/or a softer labor market also pose downside risks to growth. While risk premia have declined from last year, uncertainties about social and energy transition reforms could raise borrowing costs and undermine private investment.

Notwithstanding these risks, maintaining adequate buffers and a sustained track record of very strong policy implementation, including by continuing to adhere to the fiscal rule and the inflation targeting framework, would mitigate risks and continue to support Colombia’s resilience.

Monetary Policy – Proceed with Caution

Inflation and inflation expectations are gradually falling as expected. The central bank has appropriately kept the policy rate steady for most of 2023 while inflation and expectations came down, effectively tightening the stance during the year. This policy significantly helped to reduce inflation and inflation expectations and should keep them on a downward trend in the period ahead.

Monetary policy normalization should continue to proceed with caution. Notwithstanding the improvements noted above, inflation remains well above peers’ and has shown more persistence than expected, even after considering the impact of the commendable regulated price adjustments. Similarly, inflation expectations, while falling, have remained above the central bank’s inflation target of 3 percent since July 2021. Given upside risks to inflation, including from El Nino and high indexation, it will be necessary to proceed with caution in future policy rate reductions. As inflation and inflation expectations decline, adjusting the policy rate in a data dependent way, aiming to bring inflation firmly to the 3 percent target by mid-2025, would strike a good balance between safeguarding economic activity and policy credibility.

Enhanced communication could help better anchor expectations. Focusing on the inflation target level and the expected time horizon to bring inflation to that target, while recognizing risks and uncertainties, can help more strongly anchor inflation expectations. The exchange rate should continue to flexibly respond to shocks, as it appropriately has done, unless disorderly market conditions arise. Given global risks, the central bank’s welcomed international reserve purchase plan would gradually strengthen international reserves and maintain healthy liquidity buffers. The IMF’s Flexible Credit Line provides additional external buffers and enhances market confidence.

Fiscal Policy – Prudent Fiscal Management is Justified

The further strengthening of public finances during 2023 was appropriate. The National Central Government (NCG) and the Consolidated Public Sector (CPS) deficits were reduced for the second consecutive year, commendably over-complying with the fiscal rule. This reflected mainly gains from the 2021-22 tax reforms and continued unwinding of fuel subsidies. The smaller deficits helped reduce public debt as a ratio of GDP, which fell largely on account of the appreciation of the peso.

However, the planned increases in the overall deficit and debt this year pose fiscal risks. The recently published 2024 Financial Plan targets an improvement in the structural net primary balance by 1.2 percentage points, as per the fiscal rule, which represents an appropriately contractionary fiscal stance in both the NCG and CPS balances, helping to durably reduce remaining imbalances.

That said, the overall deficit is set to increase to 5.3 percent of GDP and debt to 57 percent of GDP in 2024, as borrowing costs remain high. Moreover, the plan envisages about 1 percentage point of GDP more in primary expenditures, with the deficit level set once again at the limit of the fiscal rule as per the Ministry’s calculation. The plan assumes ambitious but uncertain gains from tax administration improvements and faster resolutions of tax arbitrations. Should revenues fall short of expectations, expenditure plans would need to be scaled back, as was done in 2023, to comply with the fiscal rule.

Proactively scaling back expenditure plans would help lower borrowing costs and allow monetary policy to normalize faster. Borrowing costs have been above that of peers since Colombia lost investment grade in 2021.

Scaling back expenditure plans for this year would not only reduce the risk of needing to identify spending cuts later in the year, but also lower debt and financing needs. Importantly, this strategy could help the monetary policy stance to normalize more quickly, which in turn would lower private sector borrowing costs, spur investment, and help secure competitiveness, paving the way for Colombia to regain investment grade.

Continuing the exemplary path of reducing fuel subsidies would save scarce public resources and align with Colombia’s goal of reducing reliance on fossil fuels. If the healthcare and pension reforms are approved, or other shocks arise that put pressure on public finances, further reductions in spending plans may be needed to comply with the fiscal rule. Given substantial budget rigidities, standing ready to activate contingency plans will be essential.

Reorienting expenditures towards investment, within a scaled back spending envelope, would support the energy transition and enhance growth potential. Colombia’s ambitious climate and energy transition plans will require increased public and private investment. Shifting some of the spending envelope to infrastructure and climate-related projects would support Colombia’s objective of boosting its growth potential and being a global leader in the climate transition agenda.

Financial Sector – Reinforcing Resilience

Banks remain resilient despite rising nonperforming loans (NPLs). With the economic slowdown, NPLs have risen, especially in consumer loans, and the counter-cyclical provisioning framework has been appropriately activated providing banks with welcomed breathing space. As such, the banking sector remains liquid and well-capitalized, with capital adequacy ratios well above regulatory minimum, and credit growth moderating to more sustainable levels.

Financial stability risks, however, need to continue to be carefully monitored. As the economy continues to stabilize, NPLs could continue rising, warranting close monitoring. The countercyclical provisioning framework’s rules-based mechanisms should be maintained, with any needed adjustments made after careful deliberations.

Given the systemically important role private pension funds play in the financial and capital markets, any potential impact of the pension reform should be carefully analyzed and inform the discussions on the reform to mitigate risks. Continuing to closely monitor liquidity and maturity risks and following international best practice in stable funding regulations will be important for containing funding pressures.

As further progress is made in enhancing data coverage, expanding the macroprudential toolkit towards more borrower-based tools complement the good supervisory oversight.

Social and Structural Reforms – Lifting Productivity, Diversifying the Economy

Planned social reforms would need to be designed within the policy frameworks and appropriately balance equity and efficiency considerations. While the broader objectives of the social reforms to increase equity and inclusion in the society are welcomed, they should be designed and implemented in compliance with Colombia’s fiscal frameworks, addressing problems in the current system while ensuring that economic incentives are well-aligned, and encourage investment.

Lifting productivity is essential to boosting potential growth in the medium-term. Reversing declines in Colombia’s total factor productivity observed over the last three decades will require improvements in the business climate, including by simplifying regulations, lowering labor market rigidity, providing more policy certainty (e.g. on regulated prices), and removing bottlenecks that keep firms smaller and outside the recorded economy.

In addition, actions to boost domestic saving—including by raising public saving—and lower the cost of capital could support higher investment.

A well-designed and executed energy transition and export diversification plan is vital to secure longer-term sustainability and resilience. The administration’s goal of reducing dependence on oil and coal is commendable and rightly a priority given Colombia’s declining fossil fuel reserves and the ongoing global energy transition.

Diversifying exports would be an essential part of the transition strategy, which requires identifying comparative advantages across sectors and removing market frictions to foster private investment, while avoiding protectionist measures. Implementing the strategy would take time and will need strong partnerships between public and private entities, along with the proper pricing of energy. The pace and timing of the transition needs to balance achieving climate goals and preserving growth, fiscal, and external stability.

Reform efforts should be usefully complemented with further strengthening governance and transparency. Developing a comprehensive anti-corruption strategy that focuses on areas more at risk of corruption should guide advances on the governance agenda.

Ensuring the continuous publication of comprehensive and easily accessible income and asset declarations of politically exposed persons and providing public access to effective beneficial ownership information would bring more transparency and accountability to the public sector. Special attention to improving the processing of grand corruption cases through the judicial system with enhanced investigation capacity could demonstrate the state’s resolve in tackling corruption and foster greater trust within the public.

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The mission would like to thank the Colombian authorities and other counterparts for their cooperation and open discussions throughout our visit and their hospitality.

IMF Communications Department

New US sanctions could drive Venezuelan exodus

2024, 02/15

Venezuelan migrants waited outside the Immigration Office on Henry Street, Port-of-Spain, to renew their permits in July 2023.

Economist Dr Anthony Gonzales, retired director of the Institute of International Relations of the University of the West Indies (UWI) fears that if sanctions are intensified there could be another wave of migration.

“If sanctions hit foreign investment and export markets for oil as well as Venezuela’s capacity to borrow on the international market, they would have a strong negative impact on growth of the economy as well as employment and imports. Once jobs begin to get scarce and basic necessities, such as food and medicine are in short supply migration will resume at the earlier rate. T&T will therefore see an increased flow of Venezuelan migrants under these conditions.”

T&T registered 16,500 Venezuelan migrants to work legally in 2019 but thousands more live and work illegally.

On January 30, the US State Department warned that actions by the Venezuela government, including arrest of members of the democratic opposition and the barring of candidates from competing in this year’s presidential election, could result in the US not renewing General License 44, which provides relief to Venezuela’s oil and gas sector, when it expires on April 18, 2024.

Criminologist and author Daurius Figueira does not expect to see a reduction in Venezuelan migrants to T&T or other parts of Latin America. Although Venezuela witnessed modest economic recovery over the last few years, new US sanctions could undo its economic recovery, which could lead to another mass exodus of migrants.

Figueira believes that it is likely that former US President Donald Trump would win this year’s elections and reimpose the harsh sanctions as he did under his first term.
“The migration will not end as it is being pushed by Colombian transnational organised crime which they are using to support their war with the Mexican transnational trafficking organisations who now control the illicit trades of Venezuela and the Caribbean. A rise in the standard of living in Venezuela will increase the trafficking activity through Venezuela, right now the main target is Brazil.”

Illegal migration is linked to international drug cartels.
“The flow of migrants to T&T from Venezuela and the rest of Latin America is a Colombian-organised crime action to serve their interests. They are here to wage war on the Mexican affiliates in T&T. The Colombians lost this war since before 2020 but they persist with backing from T&T state agents. This reality is not going away as the migrants will further collapse T&T’s social order. The illicit trades from Venezuela are booming and there are other source countries being tapped, such as Suriname, Guyana and Brazil.”
Trinidad and Tobago could face a new influx of migrants if the US reintroduces sanctions on Venezuela.

Human trafficking and arms smuggling from Venezuela to T&T as well as other regional countries are linked to the collapse of Venezuela’s economy over the last decade. According to a report from the Venezuelan Chapter of Transparency International, a Venezuelan baby can be bought and sold for US$75,000 in T&T and the Caribbean islands.

The report published in September 2023 , entitled “Finding the Link between Illicit Economies and Modern Slavery” described how young Venezuelan women seeking better economic opportunities are sold into sex slavery in T&T, Colombia, Brazil and other regional countries.

INFORMAL ECONOMY
While inflation has been falling and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects economic growth of 4.5 per cent for Venezuela in 2024, the possibility of the US Government reimposing severe sanctions raises the question of how sustainable is this growth and the impact it will have on neighbouring countries like T&T.

Caracas Chronicles, an English-language website that brings economic and other news out of Venezuela reported on January 8 the adverse impact of Venezuela’s economic collapse and its implications, for Venezuela, but also on T&T and other regional countries.

It referred to a joint 2022 study by the Venezuelan chapter of Transparency International and research and consulting firm Ecoanalítica, which shows that illicit activities make up 16.67 per cent or US$9.4 billion of Venezuela’s economy. Trafficking of:

1. 1. gold, rhodium, coltan (all three total $2.1 billion),
  2. drugs ($5.1 billion) and
  3. fuel ($760 million) as well as
  4. port smuggling ($1.3 billion)

all make up the underground economy.

Asdrúbal Oliveros, director of the Venezuelan economic think tank Ecoanalítica, says the share of illicit sectors of the economy in Venezuela has grown since 2016 because of the collapse of Venezuela’s hydrocarbon industry.

“Oil is the main producer of wealth in the country. A whole source of political and economic clientelism derived from it and it obviously collapsed, and it had to search for alternative sources.”

The study examined another profitable illicit economic sector booming in Venezuela: modern slavery, ranging from human trafficking in Sucre for commercial sexual exploitation in the Caribbean to modern slavery in Venezuela’s mining arc.

“We are concerned by how human trafficking has increased”, Mercedes de Freitas, executive director of the Venezuelan Chapter of Transparency International said.

She criticised the Venezuelan Government for being “silent” on the widespread criminality and illegal activities that are the result of Venezuela’s economic woes.

Government security forces participate in gold trafficking in the Orinoco Mining Arc: ranging from the Army and the National Guard, through intelligence agencies DIGECIM and Sebin, to the National Police and both regional and municipal police departments in Venezuela’s Bolívar state.

The Caracas Chronicles article also stated that while the researchers could not estimate its share in the economy, they did find unsettling stories showing its profitability.

“Millions of dollars, for example, for ten underage Venezuelan girls to be exploited by Chinese mobsters in T&T. In the islands, a Venezuelan baby girl can be sold for $75,000, the study found out.”

Dragon: Reality, practicality and choices

2024, 02/18 – Mariano Browne

Economic problems revolve around getting the best result from the available resources. That means choosing from the competing realities. Neoclassical economics focuses on choices that would achieve an “optimum” result.

Unfortunately, this is a theoretical concept and achievable only under perfect conditions which rarely exist in real life. Managers (or government ministers) will never have all the information and must make the best decision with the available knowledge and information. One knows only the “best” choice with hindsight, and we often settle on making “satisfactory” choices.

The TT National Gas Company (NGC) gas contracts were typically long-term contracts (ten years or more). Many of these long-term contracts expired in the 2015-20 period. Then natural gas production declined and market prices fell. Contracts were renewed for shorter periods, typically three to five years.

Some plants operated with month-to-month contracts. Some plants closed. This occurred because NGC did not have the gas to supply, or product prices were too low to justify continuing to produce. Many recent renegotiated terms and durations have been deemed sensitive and have been kept confidential.

Methanex Corporation (the world’s largest producer and supplier of methanol) signed a new gas contract with NGC in October 2023 and disclosed that the contract duration was two years. It also signalled that it would shift production to its smaller idled “Titan” methanol plant in September 2024 and announced simultaneously that it would be idling the Atlas methanol plant in September 2024. The reason is that its 20-year gas supply had come to an end and the new supply contract is insufficient to keep the larger plant operating efficiently and profitably.

The net result is that the annual production would decline. On January 31, Methanex reported on its operating results for the fourth quarter (December 2023). Since it only operated the Atlas plant as there was insufficient gas to operate both plants, output for 2023 amounted to 1.085 million tons or just 55 per cent of its total production capacity in T&T. Titan’s capacity is 875,000. This means that output will fall by a minimum of 210,000 tons a year if Titan operates at maximum capacity. Since Methanex’s T&T production is exported, this has implications for foreign exchange earnings and therefore tax revenues.

This is only one plant, but it typifies the problem that the sector faces and the importance of increasing natural gas production. There have been no new finds and no increase in production.

Therefore, the best that the country can look forward to is to maintain gas production at the current production level for the next two years at which time (2026), according to the energy minister, “first gas” will be available from the Loran Manatee field.

This is a convenient date and a good electoral carrot as elections are due in the last half of 2025. In the meantime, since there will be no significant change in natural gas production, the physical output of the petrochemical sector cannot improve.

The production of LNG is similarly constrained by weak natural gas production. The implication of the foregoing is that any bounce in the performance of either sector is dependent on market price changes. This has implications for the national budget as well as the availability of foreign exchange.

The foregoing explains the persistent pursuit of the Dragon Gas deal in the face of all that projects inherent difficulties. No one knows how it will turn out.

What is known is that T&T’s production of natural gas cannot be increased without substantial exploration which has not happened. In the circumstances, the Government has little alternative but to press ahead. Minister Young’s visit to Venezuela last week for a working meeting with Vice President Delcy Rodriguez underlines that sense of urgency.

The difficulties with the Dragon project cannot be easily circumvented. A columnist in a rival newspaper last week in explaining the risk profile of the Dragon field confused “risk” with “uncertainty”. Risk and uncertainty are not the same. Risk is measurable and therefore can be mitigated. Uncertainty is not measurable. Firms will take on risky projects with the right incentive structure but will avoid uncertainty.

Energy companies have developed a range of risk evaluation techniques to assess projects that enable them to assess the possibility of success given all known data. This does not mean that they will always be right. The Macondo Well disaster in the Gulf of Mexico, popularised by the movie “Deepwater Horizon”, is an example of a risk that went horribly wrong and almost brought bp to its knees.

The problem with the Dragon is uncertainty and the possibility of “uncontrollable” geopolitical events. Will Venezuela be a good business partner? What of US sanctions and geopolitical implications of dealing with Venezuela? There is no insurance and little prospect of mitigating these uncertainties. As the 70 per cent investor, that decision is in Shell’s hands, not the GORTT. For the public, the issue is credibility. What to believe?

Mariano Browne is the Chief Executive Officer of the not-for-profit Arthur Lok Jack Global School of Business.

TT Government confirms fuel leak offshore

A satellite image showed a close-up view of a capsized barge and an oil spill, offshore Tobago Island February 14, 2024.

Maxar Technologies/Handout via REUTERS
Feb 23 (Reuters) –

Trinidad and Tobago government confirmed the refined product leaking from a barge that struck a reef and overturned off the coast of Tobago was tested and determined to be a type of fuel oil.

The leak, which remains unplugged and is spreading to the Caribbean Sea threatening several countries’ coasts, was first spotted by Trinidad’s Coast Guard on Feb. 7 after a barge towed by a tugboat capsized near Tobago’s shore.

“Analyses of the hydrocarbon discharge collected in Tobago indicates that the samples are characteristic of a refined oil,” Trinidad’s energy ministry said in a release, characterizing it as “intermediate fuel oil.”
Intermediate fuel oil can be used as a bunker fuel to power combustion engines.

Allan Stewart, the head of Tobago’s emergency department said the pace at which the fuel is flowing from the barge has slowed considerably, The fuel has been leaking for over three weeks, staining Tobago’s coast, affecting fishing and tourism, and reaching Grenada.

“We are working hard to ensure the hydrocarbons do not get to the more sensitive southwest part of the island, where there are the popular tourist beaches.”

Containment booms are so far holding the spill. Tobago has been using skimmers and other equipment to mop-up the fuel. The barge carried as much as 35,000 barrels of fuel oil.

The ship sailed from Panama, bound for Guyana. Monitoring service TankerTrackers.com and investigative news outlet Bellingcat said after reviewing satellite photos that the vessels were near Venezuela’s shore days before the spill was first reported in Tobago.

“Imagery discovered by Bellingcat shows that the barge began leaking oil as early as February 3, immediately after leaving (Venezuela’s) Pozuelos Bay, and that it appears to have capsized by the morning of February 6.” Venezuela denied that the barge originated from the Bolivarian Republic.

European Space Agency-Tobago spill

16/02/2024

Before and after satellite images from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission show the scale of the oil spill that occurred off the shores of Trinidad and Tobago’s coastline earlier this week. The ship, identified as The Gulfstream, ran aground and overturned off the southern shores of Tobago Island.

The final image of the animation, captured on 14 February at 23:18 CET (22:18 UTC), shows the oil spill has travelled over 160 km westwards. The spill is moving out of Trinidad and Tobago’s marine area and into Grenada’s southernmost marine area – which could affect neighbouring Venezuela.

Satellite radar is particularly useful for monitoring the progression of oil spills because the presence of oil on the sea surface dampens down wave motion. Since radar basically measures surface texture, oil slicks show up well – as black smears on a grey background.

Copernicus Sentinel data are being used for the International Charter Space and Major Disasters activation requested by national authorities (Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management) who are coordinating satellite imagery to facilitate the timely and effective monitoring to mitigate environmental impact.

Barge left Venezuela days before spill

22 February Day 16

Image from the Sentinel-2 Satellite shows the Gulf Stream Barge in Colon Panama on January 2-via Bellingcat

Days before the mysterious Gulfstream barge overturned offshore Tobago, triggering an extensive oily spill it was purportedly pinpointed by satellite imagery off Pozuelo Bay, Puerto La Cruz, Venezuela.

International experts and journalists, using automatic identification system (AIS) data and satellite imagery, claimed to have identified the vessel and its movements from 2023, moving from Panama to Amuay, Venezuela, and then to Pozuelo Bay, home to the Puerto La Cruz refinery.

On February 15, independent service TankerTrackers.com posted on X (Twitter) that the Gulfstream vessel was seen in Pozuelo Bay during the final week of January and it may have been carrying 35,000 barrels of fuel.The website attached imagery credited to the ESA satellite, which highlighted the Gulfstream barge with coordinates off the bay, close to nearby El Borracho island.

Last week, Bellingcat, a Netherlands-based investigative journalism group, claimed to have identified the unmanned Gulfstream barge. An investigation published by Bellingcat yesterday, using satellite imagery, tracked the Solo Creed tug pulling the Gulfstream barge from the city of Colón, Panama, in 2023 to the site of its eventual capsizing earlier this month in Tobago seas. Bellingcat says the ship is seen in satellite images leaking a substance from February 3, shortly after leaving Venezuela’s Pozuelo Bay where it turned off AIS transmission.

In Planet Labs PlanetScope image of the Gulfstream and Solo Creed on February 3rd, 2024, after leaving Pozuelo’s Bay, the barge appears to be leaking an oily fluid that stretches for at least 40 kilometres behind its path. This image has been brightened to show the slick more clearly. Image © 2024 Planet Labs PBC.

It is later seen on February 6, 16 nautical miles from Tobago, and appearing to be overturned, it said. Pozuelo Bay is in proximity to the Puerto La Cruz refinery, which Reuters in 2022 reported had a 187,000-bpd capacity. It is owned by Petroleos de Venezuela, SA (PDVSA), the state-owned oil and natural gas company, and is a major refining hub for the crude extracted in the states of Monagas and Anzoátegui.

In 2020, Reuters also reported that PDVSA had begun using a location near La Borracha island (off Pozuelo Bay) to transfer Venezuelan crude from one ship to another for exports, according to tanker-tracking data.

The journey to Tobago via satellite

Bellingcat used imagery from Planet Labs PBC, a publicly held American Earth imaging company based in San Francisco, California, USA, and the Sentinel-2 satellite to track the Gulfstream barge’s movements from June 2023 when it was laid along a beach in Panama before being joined by the Solo Creed tug.The acquired images and co-ordinates of the vessel were included in its article and in a Google spreadsheet that spans from December 30, 2023, to February 6, 2024, one day before the ship was discovered off Canoe Bay.

A Planet Labs satellite image from December 30, it said, shows the barge being pushed into the harbour by the Solo Creed and remaining anchored off the coast of Colon before beginning to travel east. From January 17 to January 22, Bellingcat said both the tug and the barge were located near Amuay, Venezuela, and were one day later captured by a Planet SkySat high-res satellite over open sea. On January 22, the tug disabled its AIS system and did not re-enable it until February 4.

Sentinel-2 Satellite Image shows the Gulf Stream Barge and Solo Creed Tug on January 24, near Puerto La Cruz

On January 26, Tanker Tracker and Bellingcat located the vessels in Pozuelo Bay . Bellingcat said it was able to visually match the barge in this location on January 27, 29, 30 and 31.

Planet Labs PBC’s imagery captured the barge and tug heading north-east from Venezuela on February 3, appearing to be leaking an “oily fluid, leaving behind a slick that stretches for at least 40 kilometres”, Bellingcat said.

Two days later, on February 6, Planet Labs PBC captured the Gulfstream approximately 16 nautical miles south-east of Tobago, capsized and surrounded by an oil slick, according to Bellingcat.

image from the Sentinel-2 Satellite shows the Gulf Stream Barge in the Caribbean Sea on January 20

Foreign Policy magazine, in 2022, noted the existence of a growing ghost fleet of ships transporting sanctioned goods around the world as a result of imposed trade restrictions.

Shortly after sanctions were imposed on Venezuela by the US Trump administration in 2019, Associated Press reported 14 “suspicious dark activities” spotted near Venezuelan waters where ships stopped transmitting their locations, courses and speed as required by international maritime rules.

N.B.

[ Regrettably, we are unable to reproduce all of the images described on this page.

However, below is a table that summarises what we knoe about the movement for the tug & barge combo in the days before the spill was observed in Tobago. ]

Capture date	Latitude	Longitude	Satellite provider	Notes
December 30th, 2023	9.3569	-79.9142	Planet PlanetScope
December 30th, 2023	9.3600	-79.9143	Sentinel-2	https://sentinelshare.page.link/3MEF
January 2nd, 2024	9.3574	-79.9092	Sentinel-2	https://sentinelshare.page.link/Hoor
January 4th, 2024	9.3739	-79.9053	Sentinel-2	https://sentinelshare.page.link/fsFp
January 6th, 2024	9.3783	-79.9039	Planet PlanetScope
January 7th, 2024	9.3732	-79.9036	Sentinel-2	https://sentinelshare.page.link/dZ7p
January 8th, 2024	9.3553	-79.9061	Planet PlanetScope
January 9th, 2024	9.3559	-79.9086	Planet PlanetScope
January 11th, 2024	9.3559	-79.9086	Planet PlanetScope
January 12th, 2024	9.4022	-79.9182	Planet PlanetScope
January 17th, 2024	12.4089	-70.6926	Planet PlanetScope
January 18th, 2024	12.3502	-70.3109	Planet SkySat
January 19th, 2024	12.2650	-69.8512	Planet PlanetScope
January 20th, 2024	12.3430	-70.2911	Sentinel-2	https://sentinelshare.page.link/xw1G
January 22nd, 2024	11.9213	-69.1514	Planet PlanetScope
January 24th, 2024	10.4069	-64.8415	Sentinel-2	https://sentinelshare.page.link/PaqQ
January 26th, 2024	10.2595	-64.7293	Planet PlanetScope
January 27th, 2024	10.2595	-64.7293	Planet PlanetScope
January 29th, 2024	10.2774	-64.7134	Planet PlanetScope
January 31st, 2024	10.2774	-64.7134	Planet PlanetScope
February 3rd, 2024 14:06 UTC	11.3295	-64.6643	Planet PlanetScope
February 3rd, 2024 14:44 UTC	11.3677	-64.6237	Planet PlanetScope
February 4th, 2024	11.0336	-62.7558	Planet PlanetScope
February 5th, 2024	10.7444	-60.6794	Planet PlanetScope
February 6th, 2024 14:21 UTC	10.9112	-60.6404	Landsat-8
February 6th, 2024 14:41 UTC	10.9691	-60.6344	Planet PlanetScope	These are the coordinates of the image in Planet Explore, however the image is mis-registered and the coordinates are not accurate

Venezuela’s ‘fleet’

In 2023, Reuters reported that a significant number of Venezuela’s fleet was so run down that they were in immediate need of repair or to be taken out of service.

Reuters cited an internal report from PDVSA’s maritime branch, titled “Critical deficiencies and risks of PDV Marina’s tanker fleet”. The report said that deferred maintenance had left Venezuela’s fleet with “low levels of reliability”, at risk of spills, sinking, fires, collisions or flooding.

Plugging the leaking Gulfstream

22 February Day 16

INTERNATIONAL help is being sought to plug the leak in the Gulfstream as it remains sunken off Tobago’s southwestern coast, but the barge was up to yesterday spewing less of its oily substance.

Communications director at the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (ODPM) Lt Cdr (ret’d) Kirk Jean-Baptiste said yesterday that stopping the leak was not a simple matter but officials have been seeking help.

“At this point, it’s not like how it was last week, it’s very mild,” Jean-Baptiste stated in an interview in Scarborough, where the ODPM has created an operations centre as multiple agencies grapple to clean up and control the spill.

The Gulfstream was found overturned in Cove Industrial and Business Park on February 7, spilling a crude-like substance that has impacted almost 50 miles of Tobago’s southwestern coast. The barge’s appearance was a mystery for several days; however, the Ministry of National Security disclosed last week that according to information from the Trinidad and Tobago Coast Guard (TTCG), the Gulfstream was being towed by a tugboat, the Solo Creed.

The vessels became detached and the Solo Creed has not yet been found. Jean-Baptiste said international assistance was due to come in to look at the possibility of clogging the leak, since it cannot be welded, as “there could be explosions”. The vessel has to be handled with caution to minimise the risk of the leak expanding or any other mishap that could lead to increased spillage.

Jean-Baptiste said clean-up efforts have been “a progression” that has shown results, while the decreased leakage has made containment around the vessel easier. A perimeter of booms has kept the new spillage from extending, while siphoning and mopping of the oil continues around the clock at the site. The cleaned up oil is being stored in tankers with a 500-barrel capacity and will be properly disposed of.

He was unable to say how much of the substance has been extracted from land and sea so far. Salvaging of the barge was still some way off, and would require international assistance.

“This priority right now is clean-up,” Jean-Baptiste said, adding efforts involve battling with the tides and weather. Containment efforts have been showing fruit, as the oil has not migrated further down the coast. However, the work is ongoing to keep updated with resources as they become necessary and to seek help for critical exercises.

Jean-Baptiste lauded those who have volunteered, including from Trinidad, to join in clean-up efforts. “Volunteerism is patriotism,” he said, adding that people were working up to 14 hours a day.

The exercise was also costly, from administrative resources to mop-up equipment. While Scarborough’s bay has been mostly cleaned, oil that went out to sea has been reaching Lambeau’s shoreline with incoming tides. Up to yesterday, the company Oil Mop was conducting clean-up exercises along Lambeau’s shore . Oil which had gone out to sea was being brought in by the tides, making clean-up an ongoing battle.

The hydrocarbon-based fuel is yet to be identified through sampling, but those at the Lambeau site believe it to be mostly crude and not diesel, as was previously speculated. It is opaque black, heavy and does not give off the prismatic reflections of crude.

Tobago House of Assembly Chief Secretary Farley Augustine said it was determined to be a diesel-like substance, heavy and not “very refined”. Additional tests would have to be done, with plans to tap into the vessel to acquire a better sample via which its source can be tracked.

Several homes and businesses in the impacted area remained closed up to yesterday, and some residents had to seek alternative accommodations as the fumes were still evident. Fisherfolk have been relocated and part of the Lambeau road remains closed to the public. Members of the public in the environs of impacted areas said they were as pleased as they could be with the official response to the spill. Several stated, however, that Tobago should be better equipped to respond rapidly to such disasters without having to seek resources from the Central Government, which meant delays.

“There should be some things here already, so that they could respond in a certain way when these things happen, especially as this is supposed to be a tourist destination,” Signal Hill resident Jacob Valentine said.

Concerns about the island’s border security were raised by Scarborough business woman Christine Lomond, who said “we need better patrols. It is wrong that someone was able to do this and they cannot even be found. What if it had been worse? The proper patrolling of the coast is something that we should already have been doing.” This was echoed by several people, who called Tobago “the jewel of the Caribbean”.

1,900 barrels collected per day

Tobago House of Assembly (THA) Chief Secretary Farley Augustine estimated that 1,900 barrels of the substance leaking from the overturned Gulfstream vessel were collected per day. On some days, the volume was more significant. He said the THA had been conducting its own investigations on the origin of the vessel, and he would comment at a later date once confirmations were made.

“We are doing our own independent investigations. It is in our interest to do so. This is us minding our business, we have to mind our business. The Ministry of National Security is doing what the Ministry of National Security is supposed to do by law, but as a body corporate established by Act 40 of 1996, we have our feelers out, we are doing our own investigation. We are getting some leads and at the most appropriate time, once we have the necessary confirmations because I will not put out speculations. For the things I am unsure of, I asked questions publicly and strategically as best as I received.”

THA was keeping all its legal options open and was having conversations with its legal representatives on the matter and is considering all information. Because this has had an impact, a cost, it takes away time, effort and resources.”

THA received a report on Monday evening on the spill but more testing had to be done. He said it was determined to be a diesel-like substance, heavy and not “very refined”. Additional tests would have to be done, with plans to tap into the vessel to acquire a better sample via which its source can be tracked.

“The last sample they received had some elements of seawater in it, so what they are going to do now is to actually tap the side of the vessel and take out a sample. When they do that, beyond identifying the what…the next step is to identify markers for the fuel. In other words, we can track the DNA of the fuel and say where it came from, which plant produced it. They are coming back to do additional taps.”

PM responds to cover-up claims
Oil spill link to Petrotrin ridiculous’

20240217 Day 11

There has been no “cover-up” by Government concerning the oil spill in Tobago, and the Tobago House of Assembly Chief Secretary’s attempt to link the tragedy with claims about the Petrotrin refinery is also patently ridiculous, says Prime Minister Keith Rowley. Rowley delivered a statement to Parliament yesterday on THA Chief Secretary Farley Augustine’s claims and other matters arising from the wrecked barge, leaking oil off Tobago’s Cove area since February 7.

Augustine on Wednesday suggested Government may not have been forthright with the information it had on the vessel, and he queried if the vessel’s owner is “one of those trying to purchase” the Petrotrin refinery.

However, Rowley yesterday detailed Government’s outreaches to the THA on the oil spill.
“The Energy Ministry continues to provide support and assistance in this matter. All the correspondence provide a comprehensive and accurate account of all that has taken place in a multi-disciplinary, multi-sectoral team approach, and should help to dispel some recent inaccurate, irresponsible and misleading commentary that there has been an attempt to conceal information from the public, particularly the Chief Secretary of the Tobago House of Assembly, on the matter of the oil spill. There has been no hint of any cover up.

“As soon as it became clear that there was a serious problem brewing on the Tobago coastline, I was informed and I immediately directed that the relevant ministers not only assume their responsibilities but that they be physically present in Tobago as often as required in order to ensure that the functions of the Central Government are faithfully and comprehensively discharged to the people of Tobago, in conjunction and collaboration with the relevant officers in Tobago.”

Rowley said the nature of the oil spill and the immediacy of the need for a co-ordinated approach in containing—and where possible reversing effects of the spill—led him to declare a national emergency.

“As with all matters that threaten the welfare of our nation, and in particular, given the heightened urgency of matters relating to the preservation of our biodiversity and their intrinsic importance to the health, welfare, security, and economic well-being of our nation, the Government and all other relevant agencies have taken this matter very seriously and have been engaged in a focused, co-ordinated, strategic and rapid response in addressing, containing, and where possible, preventing contamination and other damage caused by the spill, and by deploying the range of resources available to us locally and through collaboration with regional and extra-regional partners and authorities.”

The sequence of actions and initiatives undertaken by local authorities are consistent with its National Oil Spill Contingency Plan (2013).

He cited the Energy Ministry’s February 8 communication to THA Chief Administrator Denese Toby-Quashie after the Ministry was alerted by the Coast Guard on February 7 that the vessel was leaking oil.

He cited the other steps by the Energy Ministry to assist and that Tobago’s Emergency Management Agency (TEMA) had stated it was leading a response on the situation. The Ministry had told THA’s chief administrator that it stood ready to provide technical support to TEMA.

Both the Energy and Works Ministers made several visits to Tobago and he also travelled to Tobago last Sunday, reviewing the situation with technical staff and THA officials and holding a joint press conference with Augustine and all relevant Department Heads.

“At this event, all the information available to the Government was presented to the public and to the THA. It is, therefore, quite disturbing and disappointing to hear the head of the Tobago Executive, the Chief Secretary, introduce to the public that the Government had pertinent sensitive information which was being withheld from the THA. Nothing is further from the truth. This is an unnecessary gratuitous slur on the many professionals who are currently engaged in this process.

“A major multi-prong investigation is currently underway accompanying the physical activities. Under these circumstances, new, even unconfirmed information and reports, are constantly being unearthed both here at home and from many sources in many different countries outside of T&T.

“What is even more alarming is the statement from the Chief Secretary which attempts to link this tragedy and its liabilities to the Petrotrin Refinery and any of the many companies that do business with or are interested in any of its subsidiaries and their assets. The Government knows of no such existence of any such interest or conflict and view this assertion as patently ridiculous.”

“All the protocols are in place and are being followed. It requires that our professional teams be resourced and be allowed to do their jobs and that all parties, local and national, respect the breadth and borders of their own responsibility and authorities, work in a co-operative and collaborative way and, at all times, refrain from mischievous unhelpful and damaging speculation.”

State’s response timeline

1. 1. • After word of the oil spill on February 7 the Energy Ministry co-ordinated a virtual crisis-management meeting that day with other regulatory agencies including the Tobago Emergency Management Agency (TEMA).
  2. • The Ministry offered technical support to TEMA who confirmed the Tobago Oil Spill Contingency Plan was immediately triggered and TEMA would be leading and managing the response.
  3. • The Ministry followed-up with Allan Stewart of TEMA at 6.20 pm on February 7, 2024, and 1.30 pm on February 8, 2024, where it reiterated its offer of technical support and was informed that TEMA is managing the response and would engage the Ministry, if required …
  4. • The Energy Ministry informed TEMA that it is available and prepared to provide technical support. A Ministry team was dispatched to Tobago to provide assistance, should TEMA and THA so desire.
  5. • The Ministry dispatched a team of Petroleum Inspectors to assist THA, TEMA.
  6. • Ministers Stuart Young (Energy) and Rohan Sinanan (Works) met THA Chief Secretary Farley Augustine in Tobago. Both offered continued support and expertise from their ministries.
  7. • Energy Ministry personnel were present and have been participating in and providing expertise in the response exercise.
  8. • Heritage Petroleum Company Ltd sent resources to Tobago, including personnel and equipment, to assist. This was after the Ministry initially requested assistance from Woodside Energy and their approval of the use of a private service contractor (Kaizen Environmental Services Trinidad Ltd) that Woodside had in Tobago with the expertise to deal with containment/ clean-up operations.
  9. • Young was also in contact with bpTT and Shell Trinidad both of whom have offered to provide assistance through the Ministry.

Slick enters Venezuela territorial waters

2024, 02/17 Day 11

New satellite data analysed by the Tobago Emergency Management Agency (TEMA) detected the slick originating from the Gulfstream spill south of Cove, Tobago, in Venezuela’s territorial waters.

“Satellite imagery, captured on February 15, 2024, at 18:26HRS, identified a potential oil spill believed to originate from an overturned vessel approximately 150m SSE from the southern coast of Cove. The imagery vividly showcases a silver-like slick and streaks of a thick, black-like substance. The anomaly now extends 150 nautical miles northwest from the westernmost point of Tobago, reaching areas north of The Los Testigos Islands, north of Venezuela, and south of Grenada.”

TEMA is working with the Institute of Marine Affairs (IMA) and the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (ODPM) to “yield a high confidence level, attributed to the known suspected point source”.

However, notable variations in slick thickness were observed and a thin oil-like substance was evident in the imagery.

Los Testigos Islands are about 400 kilometres (250 miles) northeast of Caracas. The population is about 200 inhabitants (according to the 2001 census), mostly fishing families.

Caribbean Disaster Management Agency (CDEMA) also met stakeholders across the southern Windwards, including T&T.TEMA CEO Allan Stewart said, “I can report, based on what was said at the meeting, that they (CDEMA, Grenada) have activated their plan to cope with what is coming that may probably come their way based on those projections there.

“There is a probability. I will not give the level of that probability now; I will leave that for the other technical people, but they may be missed. Definitely the southern part of it (Grenada), if it’s going to impact, certainly it will be the southern tip of Grenada,, St George’s, that is a southern part of the island.”

TT yet to identify wreck’s owner

2024, 02/17 Day 11

Government believes that the capsized barge leaking oil off Tobago could have been triggered by a towing operation “gone bad”—and the state is determinedly seeking those responsible to hold them liable and compensate T&T but is yet to identify them.

Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley indicated this in a statement to Parliament yesterday on the oil spill, which has been damaging Tobago’s coastlines since February 7.

T&T is handling the situation according to plan and is at Tier Two emergency level, “… But may require a bit of outside help, however, we have not yet declared a Tier Three emergency, but that may be forthcoming.”

Tier Three means that international aid will be formally requested. Rowley said the vessel is, as of now, still stuck on the reef off Canoe Bay, Tobago.

“It continues to pose a major threat, as it continues fouling the coastline and surrounding seas. Our major task now is to empty the contents of the vessel in a controlled operation and neutralise the threat. We are assessing the scope of what is required and are seeking the pertinent expertise where we do not have it.”.

At this stage, it’s believed the whole situation was triggered by a towing operation gone bad. But Government has not yet determined the nature of the operation, which resulted in the wreckage of the Gulf Stream drifting to T&T’s shores.

The National Security Ministry—particularly the T&T Coast Guard—immediately reached out to other local and regional agencies, including the Maritime Services Division, IR Consilium (through an expert consultant), Caricom IMPACS, and the Guyana Coast Guard, in an urgent effort to identify the vessels and their owners.

“As new information comes to hand, we may need to talk to other jurisdictions, including Venezuela. At the moment, we have offers of help from major oil-handling nations, Brazil and Venezuela. The Ministry of Foreign and Caricom Affairs is in contact through the established protocols and will continue to advance these discussions.”

In assisting with investigations, the Caricom Implementation Agency for Crime and Security (IMPACS) contacted the authorities in Panama and Aruba for photographs of the tugboat Solo Creed and the Gulfstream. He said in response, the Dutch authorities in Aruba provided images of both vessels, which can help in confirming the identity of one of the vessels. The nature and legality of their operations are still to be unravelled.

“While we have made good progress and have identified many leads which are being followed up in the ongoing investigations, there is, as yet, no definitive identification of operators or ownership and confirmation of the offending party/parties. “What is a fact is that, notwithstanding who is responsible, we have to protect, preserve and restore the environment. We will also relentlessly seek to find out who is responsible and hold them liable for all that they are required to indemnify us for,” Rowley added, noting the situation was not budgeted for in the annual allocation and the cost of dealing with it must be assumed by the Finance Ministry as an “extraordinary inescapable expense.”

“We undertake at the level of the Central Government to do all that is necessary to deal with this threat, which came to us from outside our own activities, and to hold responsible all who polluted our environment.”

T&T, as a maritime nation surrounded by waterways open to a wide range of international maritime traffic, is always exposed to certain risks like oil spills.

Citing “a lot of uninformed commentary about closure of borders and the use of permits for passage through T&T’s marine space, Rowley added, “Unlike our air space, there is no international law which requires non-military vessels from exercising the right of innocent passage through our waters. This being so, we’ve always had to anticipate unwelcome events like these and it is for this purpose that the National Oil Spill Contingency plan is in place, currently activated to Tier 2 …”

UNC MP Rudy Indarsingh asked if Government had considered and liaised with the THA Chief Secretary on raising the disaster level to Tier Three. Rowley said his statement made it clear the operation is collaborative.

Hydropower

2024, 02/23
Dr Varma Deyalsingh

In October 2023, police officers were praised by CoP Erla Harewood-Christopher for seizing 60 barrels of fuel in Los Iros. The CoP stated that this was most likely to be traded for narcotics with a South American drug trafficking network.

As far back as September 2011, Lt Colonel Kirk Jean-Baptiste, the then PRO of the T&T Coast Guard, explained, “This problem has been happening for some time now, where locals buy fuel, particularly diesel, at subsidised prices and then sell it to boats that take it to Guyana and up and down the islands.”

The Stabroek News of November 19, 2020, reported that ‘Fuel smuggling remains a threat to legitimate dealers’. Guyana Energy Agency head Mahender Sharma said,

“It is important to note that diesel continues to be sourced from Venezuela. As recent as last week, the captains of two separate fuel vessels reported sourcing their diesel from Venezuela.”

He emphasised that the intent of smugglers is to avoid payment of local taxes.
T&T was even accused of assisting Venezuela in 2019, despite the US embargo, when Kepler, a Paris-based company, reported that ships appeared to be collecting oil cargo at Venezuela before stopping off at Trinidad and Tobago and then setting off again, in a likely attempt to get new bills of lading to disguise cargo origins.

The illicit trade in petroleum is a multi-billion dollar industry present across the world. Global Financial Integrity estimates that theft of state- or privately-owned crude oil is worth at least US$5.2 billion to US$11.9 billion annually.

Diesel has now been identified as the fuel leaking from the Gulfstream barge which overturned in Tobago’s waters, polluting 15 kilometres of Tobago’s shoreline.

Bellingcat reported that three days before, the barge developed a leak, leaving behind a slick that stretched for at least 40 kilometres. Satellite imagery purportedly pinpointed that Gulfstream sailed from Pozuelo Bay, Venezuela.

The crew of Gulfstream’s elusive tug, the Solo Creed, needs to be located and answer if this intentional sailing into our territory was to avert this disaster away from Venezuela’s coastline.

On August 30, 2019, a mysterious oil spill occurred on Brazil’s northeast coastline. It was the worst oil spill in Brazilian history and the largest environmental disaster ever recorded on any tropical coastal region worldwide. A Greek-flagged ship, the NM Bouboulina, belonging to Delta Tankers Ltd, was suspected and investigations found the oil to be of Venezuelan origin.

We have to reduce our dependency on fossil fuel, which continued to harm our health and planet.

World leaders preach about the dangers of fossil fuels but the Ukraine-Russian war illustrated some nations’ dependence on fossil-based energy.

We have had numerous global talks on wind power, hydropower and solar power. Electric cars were touted to be the new saviour. Two years ago, US President Joe Biden planned to make half of all new cars sold in the US by 2023 electric.

In the January 3, 2024, issue of the Business Insider, Paris Mark wrote on the slowdown in EV sales. Ford and General Motors delayed their investment in EV manufacturing and even Tesla delayed a planned factory in Mexico.

EVBox’s blog on February 10, 2023, notes that the manufacturing of a typical EV battery can result in detrimental polluting effects and high energy requirements for the procurement of raw materials and the manufacturing process itself.

Japan’s water engine in a car now runs with hydrogen fuel, which gives safer production and storage solutions. Toyota’s water-driven technology, extracting hydrogen from water through electrolysis, is a groundbreaking advancement in a sustainable clean and renewable fuel source.

Three days ago, Japan was overtaken by Germany in global economic rankings. Japan’s slip to fourth place was predicted by the IMF taking into account their ageing populations, limited natural resources and rising competition for their exports. Japan did remarkably well post WW2 to achieve its economic success. It was once second to the USA in economic rankings.

India is predicted to ascend to third place soon and some predict that Japan may soon be overtaken by Korea in the real (price-adjusted) volume of exports.

This water engine can once more give Japan the thrust it needs.
Today, Japan celebrates the Emperor’s Birthday (Tennō tanjōbi). Japan has the oldest monarchy in the world, over 1,500 years. His Majesty the Emperor Naruhito, assumed office on April 30, 2019, after the abdication of his father.

It is passing strange that his Majesty, who is an honorary member of the World Water Commission for the 21st Century and a sponsor of the Global Water Partnership, presides over a country that could now revolutionise the world with an engine fuelled by water.

Mayaro combats illicit traffic with US aid

2024, 02/07

US Ambassador Candace Bond visited Mayaro MP Rushton Paray to discuss ways to counter human and drug trafficking along the coastal economic hub and gateway to the ’energy industry

Bond was the first US Ambassador to visit the southeastern peninsula to review security matters.

Paray said in-depth discussions centred around critical energy and security issues affecting the petroliferous region. and focused on developing comprehensive strategies to combat narco-trafficking and human trafficking along the eastern seaboard.

“The TTPS joined in that discussion and Ambassador Bond indicated that her government has zero tolerance on human trafficking and narco-trafficking, which is being addressed in terms of support for T&T at the governmental level,”

Bond said she would make more time to see how best the US can support the constituency and confirmed her commitment to working closely with local authorities and stakeholders to address challenges and explore further training for law enforcement.

“We share a resolute commitment to eradicating these challenges,”
Paray said, over the past eight years, Mayaro has benefitted from law enforcement training, search and rescue training and disaster preparedness based on collaboration with the US government.
“We’ve done work on school violence, and we have had several health and wellness initiatives over that period,”

Bond shared her thoughts on climate change and how changes have been affecting Mayaro.
Following the meeting with Paray, Bond went to the Rio Claro East Secondary School for a tree-planting ceremony.

Last week, Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley attended a high-level security meeting at the US Pentagon hosted by Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Western Hemisphere Affairs Daniel Erikson. Discussions centred on illicit trafficking and maritime security, defence force modernisation and training, cybersecurity, and frameworks to facilitate expanded bilateral security cooperation.

Opposition resists salary rise for public officers

2024, 02/18

The Opposition UNC will not support a salary increase proposed by the Salaries Review Commission (SRC), and they believe the Prime Minister will not support it either. Opposition Chief Whip Dr David Lee questioned the timing of the Government’s decision to lay the SRC’s 117th report in Parliament Friday, on the back of the oil spill disaster in Tobago and the debate over nominations to Deputy Commissioners of Police.

“I’m surprised the Government brought this report on Friday and the question I want to ask is; it is a deflection tactic? Two issues happened yesterday (Friday); One is the big disaster of the oil spill in Tobago and the second is the drama that took place in parliament in the debates regarding the four Deputy Commissioners of Police.”

He said it was “strange” the Government would want to bring the report at this point in time. “I think it was to deflect away from that oil spill and the lack of urgency this Government has placed on the recovery and clean-up of that oil spill. This Government knows when they lay that report, whether they want the increase or not, the Opposition will be asked our views on it.”

Among the SRC’s recommendations is that the Opposition Leader’s salary increases from $29,590 to $47,500. MPs stand to benefit from a $3,258 increase with their salaries rising from $17,410 to $20,668.

Lee’s colleague, Dinesh Rambally, MP for Chaguanas West, said he will not support a proposed salary increase for Parliamentarians at this time.

Parliamentarians will not take it—economist

Prof Roger Hosein believes that parliamentarians would not take a salary increase as proposed by the SRC.

When the Sure Foundation distributed 50,000 vegetable seedlings at the Munroe Road, Chaguanas constituency office of Chaguanas West MP, Rambally, Hosein said, “I don’t think that the politicians would take that increase knowing the state of the economy, knowing that natural gas production would fall by a further 20 to 25 per cent between now and 2027 and given that economic activity to this day is 21 per cent less than in 2015.”

Rambally said “With respect to the proposals I have seen from the recent SRC report, I want to start by making it abundantly clear, and I speak for myself, I cannot in good conscience support such a report.”

The report does not indicate how increases upwards of 25 per cent and more can be justified.

“We have a situation in the country where we have asked public servants, we have asked ordinary individuals to follow something resembling a four per cent increase in their earnings after a prolonged period of not getting any increases.”

Rambally said that the CPO has been promoting a four per cent increase for one tier of the society but high office holders would see them probably getting increases of over 20 per cent.

Members of the SRC should be interrogated as to how they came up with these numbers. He said the high rate of inflation, utility rate hikes and property tax may not affect people getting a high rate of increase when compared to low-income earners, who he said are feeling the squeeze daily.

The Congress of the People issued a statement “After offering public servants a paltry four per cent increase, with a ‘take it or go to hell’ attitude, led by our astute, ‘I want my money’ prime minister, a whopping 30-plus per cent increase is now on the table for him and others.” The COP called on the Prime Minister to respond to the SRC’s proposals.

CROSQ launches e-learning courses

The Caricom Regional Organisation for Standards and Quality (CROSQ) has launched five e-learning courses.

CROSQ said the aim of this initiative is to engage with academia and bring more quality infrastructure to youth and young professionals.

“If quality infrastructure is to attract the kind of skilled and dedicated professionals that are necessary for the future success of our small island developing states, then it must include partnerships with academia. It must start with an understanding of how the pure and applied sciences, and even the social sciences, taught in our secondary and tertiary institutions can also direct graduates into the specialised field of quality infrastructure,” CROSQ CEO, Deryck Omar, said.

The organisation is also marketing quality infrastructure as a career development path for youth.

CROSQ added the five courses under the 11th European Development Fund Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) project. The courses are geared mainly towards entry level professionals in quality-related institutions.

The TBT programme started in 2019 and is funded by the EU, through the Cariforum directorate and managed by the German national Metrology Institute (PTB). Beneficiary to this programme is TT and other regional countries.

CROSQ said the courses –

1. 1. Introduction to Quality Infrastructure, Standards Development:
  2. Essentials; Fundamentals of Metrology;
  3. Auditing for Quality Effectiveness and Quality Infrastructure:
  4. Marketing Communications

– were developed by CROSQ’s technical officers.

EU Delegation to Barbados, Eastern Caribbean States, the OECS and Caricom/Cariforum, programme manager, Sheldon Jackman praised CROSQ and its partners on the EU funded initiative.

“The development of these training courses come in response to recognised growth in demand by firms and other stakeholders in their use of quality systems to meet local, regional and international market requirements,” Jackman said. “Professionals in firms and staff of standard bodies who complete this course of study, will benefit from enhanced tools and best practices, in the respective areas of QI and close any knowledge gaps that may exist.”

He said this training supports the overall objective of the TBT programme by increasing the use of internationally-recognised quality infrastructure by the regional and national quality institutions and by the private sector.

Service is not servitude

2024, 02/21

As T&T continues to build its tourism product and craft new and unique avenues to attract international visitors, Jamaica’s Minister of Tourism Edmund Bartlett shared some advice at the Global Tourism Resilience Conference (GTRC) from February 15 to 19, 2024 at the Montego Bay Convention Centre (MBCC).

“The first advice is to build your human capacity. It’s all about people and tourism as a people-driven activity. People travel to fulfil their passions so identify what these passions are and build products around these passion points.

“So training, training, training and building capacity to deliver the best quality service because that’s what people want because 60 per cent of the value of the experience of a visitor is service.”

There must be a new way of thinking to hone tourism, noting that this must take into consideration how service is viewed.

“We have to get out of our heads the old thinking of the historic process which suggests that service and servitude are the same. They are not. Service is still the highest calling of all and there’s big money in service and tourism is showing that.”

Jamaica continues to be one of the top performing countries in the Caribbean for tourism and service.

The Jamaican Tourism Minister spoke on a broader scale about how Caribbean countries can further strengthen and build their tourism resilience. Noting that the Caribbean community is in a very vulnerable space from natural disasters of various types as well as exogenous shocks which disrupt tourism activity, he said consequently all those have to be treated with and managed.

“The importance of ensuring that these shocks are managed well is that tourism for the Caribbean is not just a social activity. It is the life blood of the region. In fact, some 26 per cent of the GDP of the entire Caribbean including Guyana is tourism and about 20 per cent of the employed persons in the region are related to tourism activities.

“It is a huge economic driver in the region and therefore, it has to be preserved and it has to be built in a manner that makes it resilient, nimble and innovative so that whenever the shocks come we can recover quickly and thrive afterwards.”

Financing was also discussed during the conference.
Dr Stacy Richards-Kennedy, regional manager for the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF) spoke on how Caribbean countries can access more financing.

“On the heels of the pandemic many countries found themselves in a situation of having limited options and limited sources of financing and what we have been doing as CAF is expanding our outreach to the Caribbean and working with all of the countries across Caricom in the first instance to explain to them what are the benefits of becoming members in CAF…and also the range of financing instruments available…we also work closely as possible with governments to be flexible and also to customise the needs of that country.”

Bartlett said tourism assets can be enhanced through resources from the International Monetary Fund. However, he advised that there ought to be a more dedicated funding for tourism resilience.

“I think that can be done by the tourists themselves who come into our space. I actually proposed that we look at the possibility of a ‘resilience tip’ so that in the same way that tourism partners would tip for good service..a waiter comes and does a good job and you give a tip. It is the same way that at every point of consumption you leave a tip.”

Building airlift capacity

For island tourism, air transportation remains the primary mode. Bartlett stated that this capacity must therefore, be developed for continued growth.

“If we are to tap into the new markets for the far areas of the world like the Middle East and China we are going to have to have international transportation to move people from hubs that we would perhaps create within our region.

“Caricom leaders must begin to sit and concentrate heavily on this. We have to perhaps look at multilateral support, perhaps how the World Bank can assist in building the capacity for air connectivity within the region.”

The private sector can also play a key role in this development. There are areas to collaborate with international airlines and even local carriers to expand and to give them that ability to move from area to area. There are also other factors to examine to do with geopolitical arrangements within the Caribbean.

“We need to enable seamlessness within the air space of the Caribbean and perhaps to look at the visa regimes and border issues,”

These factors are also important in attracting investment. While several studies have already been done on these issues, what is needed is to take action now.

A focal point of the conference was the work of the Global Tourism Resilience and Crisis Management Centre head office in Kingston, Jamaica with other established offices in the Americas, Africa and the Middle East.

The main objective of the conference is to champion continued conversations about a more inclusive approach to tourism, that will allow for consolidated learning and implementation of strategies globally.

The centre is an international think tank headquartered at the Mona campus of The University of the West Indies.

At the event it was announced that it will now be known as the Global Tourism Resilience Centre as Bartlett noted that UN Tourism has forged a major partnership with the centre as Jamaica continues to build its brand as a destination.
UN Tourism Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili, who was present , said creating a Tourism Resilience Fund is currently being explored.

Executive Director at the centre Professor Lloyd Waller acknowledged that it continues to be a beacon of tourism resilience noting that the conference was a further step in the right direction in building capacity.

“Global disruptions have shown the need for us to build capacity in tourism as it remains one of the most vulnerable industries.”

On February 17, Global Tourism Resilience Day was celebrated for the second time, recognising the official adoption by the United Nations on February 6, 2022, of the resolution to observe the day each year.

Indian energy resource head: Change mindset on climate change

Director of The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) , Dr Vibha Dhawan, says although it is a daunting task and time is rapidly running out, she remains optimistic the world will overcome the effects of climate change.

However, what this means is for people and governments to change their attitude and mindset that climate change is someone else’s problem to solve. She shared her views in a meeting with journalists at TERI headquarters in New Delhi. Journalists from seven Caribbean countries, including TT and 12 Latin American countries are participating in the eight-day familiarisation tour of India arranged by the Indian government with the purpose of enlightening participants on the “New India” initiative. This aims to move India from developing to developed status within the next 20 years.

TERI is a 50-year-old research institute specialising in research into energy, sustainable development and the environment. Its scope of work includes studying the effect of climate change and finding ways to mitigate against it through energy efficiency, biotech research and development and social transformation.

Dhawan said to reverse climate change, or at least minimise its effect, calls for a global reset in attitudes that this phenomenon is someone else’s problem. She cited the reluctance of some developed countries to share technology without licensing it, so as to protect trade secrets, even if this knowledge could help in combating climate change.

“But it’s just one planet we live on. So if one country is green thanks to its technology, but they won’t share this information with others…look, air does not know international boundaries. So it’s either we are all in this together or not.”

Saying India, as a developing nation, is committed to going green in terms of using renewable energy and reducing its considerable carbon footprint, she said its solutions are tailor-made to include sensitive small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

She said while India and TERI are willing to share advances in alternative fuels that are more environmentally friendly, every country has to find solutions to going green which are tailored to its unique geographical and socio-economic realities. India’s solutions may not necessarily work for other countries. However, this does not mean India won’t assist others in working towards developing and/or enhancing their own climate-change mitigation strategies.

On the LAC communities, she said TERI played a major role in developing Guyana’s solar-energy push by providing solar panels and technical information. India’s High Commissioner to Guyana, Dr Amit Telang, asked TERI to consider working with other Caricom nations to develop solar energy as a realistic form of alternative energy.

“If it is one thing that Latin America and the Caribbean has been blessed abundantly with it is sun, so solar energy remains very viable.”

She cautioned that even alternative energy sources and resources can come with unique problems, which if not dealt with, will be counterproductive to the push to fighting climate change and its deleterious effects. She gave an example , saying one of the things TERI is researching is micro-solar panels, since the current panels are so large as to present a problem of space.

, Dr Vibha Dhawan, interacts with Latin America and Caribbean journalists

“So we can’t cut down trees to clear land for solar panels, can we? We are looking at developing micro-panels that can fit on the roof of houses, yet still contain the capacity to provide the energy as provided by larger panels.”

Dhawan said TERI recognises that the Caribbean is particularly vulnerable to rising seas and erosion. Such at-risk countries should focus on finding solutions now rather than scrambling to do so when the sea rushes in to reclaim land.

The biggest global challenge to fighting climate change, she opined, is getting everyone to understand they play a role in this fight, individually and collectively. Once the mindset is changed and there is a willingness to buy into the need to access alternative clean energy and adjust habits that damage the environment, the battle would be won.

Asked if she believes humanity is losing the war to climate change, she said, “I am a very optimistic person, so I believe once we change our mindset as the human race, action will follow that will reverse climate change or at the very least, minimise or mitigate its effect.”

It’s only one planet we all have to live on, she reiterated.

TERI’s goals:

1. 1. – Enhancing access to clean energy for all
  2. – Helping a global transition to renewable energy pathways
  3. – Enhance energy efficiency, especially in industries, public utilities and buildings
  4. – Facilitating more efficient use of materials, especially iron and cement
  5. – Enhancing conservation, utilisation of and access to water, including watershed management
  6. – Enabling the planning and governance of environmentally sustainable cities through green buildings and through management of solid waste, sewage, sanitation, mobility and air quality
  7. – Building resilience to adverse impacts of climate change due to cyclones and variations in hydrology and temperature
  8. – Accelerating pollution abatement through innovative policies and environmental treatment products
  9. – Enhancing ecosystem services, especially in forestry and biodiversity
  10. – Developing green mobility solutions
  11. – Enabling sustainable food production and nutritional security through quality planting material, bio-based agricultural inputs and crop diversification; and
  12. – Developing innovative solutions for clean air, regionally and in cities.

India’s Minister: ‘Caribbean, Latin America important trade partners’

Indian Minister of Industry and Commerce Piyush Goyal reiterated that the Caribbean and Latin America are important trade partners with India. He was speaking to journalists from the Caribbean and Latin America on a media familiarisation tour of India arranged by India’s Ministry of External Affairs.

At a press conference at his office in Delhi , Goyal welcomed the journalists and thanked the Heads of Government from Latin America and the Caribbean for supporting India over the years.

“Trade has grown between India and Latin America and the Caribbean over the years. I can say that 30 years ago, trade with Latin America accounted for $2 billion. As of today, trade stands at $40 billion, $50 billion if you count Mexico. And the goal is to take this figure to $100 billion within the next five years.“

With a population of over one billion, India is a market full of possibilities for its global partners with shared goals and interests. He invited the journalists to take the message back that India, the fifth largest economy in the world, is open and ready to do business.

Highlighting strides in pharmaceuticals, medicine, textiles, research and development, he said there are a lot of benefits to be derived from partnering with India not only on the trade and commerce front but also on the diplomatic front.

India’s renaissance can be seen from ten years ago when Narendra Modi led his BJP party into government. Modi was behind the movement to lift India out of its fragile economy to one that is the fifth largest in the world, projected to be the third largest by 2027.

India’s economic growth has been aided by its foreign partners in trade. The Caribbean and Latin America are counted among these important trade partners.

Goyal acknowledged China’s presence in trade and diplomacy in the West, including the Caribbean and Latin America, as a means of countering the influence of the United States. However, they denied that India’s push to increase its own trade was to counter China’s growing influence.

“We are happy for China, which is an important ally of ours. But we don’t see it as competition for influence. We see it as reaching out to our global partners, including those in the Caribbean and Latin America, to maintain and increase trade ties.”

Acknowledging the large diaspora in Caribbean countries, including Trinidad and Tobago, Guyana and Suriname, Goyal said there are a lot of mutual opportunities and benefits between these countries and India.

Venezuela, Guyana eschew war

2024, 02/26

A war between Venezuela and Guyana is highly unlikely. That is the view of international relations experts in a webinar hosted by the Institute of International Relations, University of the West Indies, St Augustine . The theme was “The Guyana-Venezuela Controversy: The Argyle Declaration and Implications for International Law and the Caribbean.”

Prof Ivelaw Lloyd Griffith, a fellow of the Caribbean Policy Consortium and Senior Associate of the Centre of Strategic and International Studies, is of the view that the Venezuelan Government’s aggression towards Guyana is aimed at appeasing Venezuela’s domestic audience.

He described the actions of the Maduro regime as “blustering, militarily and politically” but added that “the calculus of risk and reward suggests that it would not be in Venezuela’s interest to risk pushing the envelope of aggression, physically with annexation. I think there are sufficient negatives in that regard, some having to do with broader geopolitical and economic factors. It is not in Brazil’s self-interest to allow annexation to happen. I am fairly comforted in the fact that I don’t see physical aggression happening.”

Co-founder and co-chair of the Caribbean Policy Consortium and Professor Emeritus, University of Miami, Anthony Bryan agreed that there was very little risk of war between the South American neighbours.

“There will be no war. There will be no invasion. It is a risk that Venezuela will not take because it will change the geopolitical and the military status of South America. But there might be border skirmishes. I do not think that Guyana has any option other than the International Court of Justice (ICJ). The Argyle Agreement is a temporary damper on the issue. This is not an issue that will disappear even when the ICJ rules in Guyana’s favour.”

Under the Argyle Agreement, signed between the presidents of Venezuela and Guyana in St Vincent late last year, the two nations will not use force to solve the dispute over the oil-rich Essequibo region which Guyana currently administers.

Also discussed during the webinar was a warning given by the late Dr Eric Williams, T&T’s first prime minister, about Venezuela’s imperial ambitions in the Caribbean.

Guyana’s former foreign affairs minister Carl Greenidge, said of Williams’ early works,

“You might want to bear in mind Dr Eric Williams’ comments about Venezuela’s intentions in the region. I have the paper that he presented at a (PNM) party conference entitled ‘Venezuela’s Threat to the Caribbean Community’. In the document itself, he examines the implication of Venezuela’s attempts to conclude bilateral arrangements with these Caribbean countries.”

Griffith also spoke about Williams’ stance on Venezuela.

“Prime Minister Dr Eric Williams was not only concerned about Venezuela to the point of writing nine pages, he convened a special convention of the PNM in 1975. He focused the party’s attention on what he called Venezuela’s imperialism. He used his academic skills as a historian to lay out over many decades what Venezuela’s intents, designs and pursuits were. It’s a document publicly available and worth reading.”.

Bryan said Venezuelan imperialism was a very real issue during Williams’ tenure as prime minister.

“What Dr Williams was concerned about was the fact that Caricom, which was called CARIFTA at the time, was being fragmented, the Venezuelans playing off Caribbean states against each other. Dr Williams didn’t like that. As a historian he saw it as imperialism.”

What goes up will come down

2024, 02/25 Mariano Browne

In the real world, markets are imperfect and equilibrium conditions, where supply and demand are evenly matched, exist only for short periods. Market factors are always responding to stimuli and periods of oversupply or undersupply are the norm. Market prices are signals which reflect the prevailing market conditions.

In tight markets where demand is greater than supply, if prices remain high for long periods, they encourage investors to add new capacity which has the effect of reducing prices.

The reverse is also true. Market responses happen with a time lag as there is a lead time to add new capacity. All markets behave this way, foreign exchange markets included. Given globalisation, prices in any geographic region will reflect price movement elsewhere. This scenario explains the sharp rise in the oil and natural gas prices after the reopening of economies in the post-COVID period.

The war in Ukraine added to the market instability in 2022 and prices moved sharply upward. In the two years since then, world natural gas output has increased in response to the higher prices. Unfortunately, world economic growth has slowed and this winter has been milder (when demand for heating should have been higher) whilst gas output has increased in the rest of the world. Climate change has led to warmer weather, meaning milder winters which has meant lower gas usage.

Natural gas output has stagnated in T&T. The United States has become the largest producer of natural gas and now accounts for more than 25 per cent of the world’s production or approximately 105 billion cubic feet (BCF) of gas a day. By comparison, T&T’s natural gas production is 2.6 bcf.

On Friday, February 16, Henry Hub gas prices fell to the lowest closing price since 1995 at US $1.60 per MMBtu. This has resulted in a gas glut and rising inventories as supply has outstripped demand. If these market conditions persist, it will lead to plant closures as in T&T in 2018. One might argue that this situation only applies to the US market, and the rest of the world is short of gas.

However, sluggish market demand has also driven down prices in other parts of the world. In Europe, prices for contracts traded on the Intercontinental Exchange have fallen by 22 per cent this year and contracts trade at $7.90 per MMBtu or 90 per cent less than the 2022 prices.
The same is true for northeast Asia where the prices of liquified natural gas have fallen by 23 per cent to 2021 levels. These price movements are evidence of a market imbalance. Some LNG plants will close and others will experience operating losses.

The carry trade to Asia may still benefit T&T LNG. It is worth remembering that T&T is now a high-cost producer, and the margins will be smaller. This simply adds to T&T’s difficulties. Since natural gas production has declined, LNG output will stagnate.

Petrochemical output will also be affected. For example, last week this column noted that from September 2024 Methanex will be using its smaller plant, Titan and its larger plant, Atlas, will be closed. Methanex’s capacity utilisation will now fall to 45 per cent down from 55 per cent in 2023 provided that it is supplied with enough gas to keep the Titan plant fully utilised.

T&T’s positive economic outturn for 2021-23 was due mainly to international price increases associated with natural gas and its derivatives. The market prices for LNG and petrochemicals suggest that T&T’s economic growth projections may have been too ambitious.

Economic forecasts are not perfect as market conditions change and those forecasts were built on output and price assumptions which are no longer valid. Now that prices have declined, the economy will return to the same weak performance it exhibited between 2017 and 2020. The performance of the National Gas Company (NGC), the national economic flagship, is a rough guide to the possibilities.

Readers should note the inconsistency and volatility in the NGC’s reported profits. Between 2018 and 2022, NGC reported a profit of $2.2 billion in 2018, a sharp reduction to $482 million in 2019, a loss in 2020 of$2.1 billion, and a profit of $2.5 billion in 2021 and $2.4 billion in 2022.

Interim results for 2023 are not available on the company’s website. If the company follows its normal reporting cycle we will not know the company’s performance for the next six months. Of even greater interest is the sharp revenue variations. Reported revenues in 2018 were $16 billion and $13.6 billion in 2019. In 2020 the company reported a $2.1 billion loss from revenues of $11.4 billion. In 2021, revenues increased to $23.6 and increased again in 2022 to $33 billion.

Despite the $10 billion revenue increase in 2022, profits fell from $2.5 in 2021 to $2.4 billion in 2022. A profit of $2.4 from $33 billion in revenue in 2022 does not compare well with a profit of $2.2 billion from revenues of $16 billion in 2018.

The volatility in NGC’s revenue and profits demonstrates the riskiness of relying on one sector to drive the country’s economic performance. This has implications for government revenues and the maintenance of a sustainable expenditure path. Planning growth and development based on a volatile revenue source is not prudent.

Therefore managing public expectations is critical in maintaining investor confidence. What goes up will come down.

Mariano Browne is the Chief Executive Officer of the Arthur Lok Jack Global School of Business. ALJGSB is a not-for-profit corporation

Oil disaster is a cautionary tale

A major spill in the region could place many island nations in jeopardy

26 February 2024
Theresa Rodriguez-Moodie

On February 7, an overturned vessel off the southern shores of Tobago caused a catastrophic spill with an oil-like substance, leading Trinidad and Tobago’s Prime Minister Keith Rowley to declare a national emergency.

Distressing photographs show thick black sludge in the island’s coastal waters, smothering vast expanses of beach and mangroves. Urgent calls for volunteers to aid in the extensive cleanup effort have been issued, as neighbouring countries brace themselves for potential oil slicks drifting beyond Tobago’s shores.

It is important to note that Trinidad and Tobago has a national oil spill contingency plan and over a hundred years of experience in the oil and gas industry.

Meanwhile, in Guyana, substantial reserves of oil and gas have been discovered beneath its coastal waters by an ExxonMobil-led consortium. Forecasts predict the country could produce 1.2 million barrels per day by 2027 or 2028.

Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs), however, indicate that in the event of a spill or well blowout, the repercussions could devastate large swathes of the Caribbean, stretching from Trinidad through the Lesser Antilles, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic.

This would devastate coastal ecosystems, infrastructure, tourism, fisheries, shipping, and other vital economic activities, placing many island nations in economic jeopardy.

ExxonMobil’s active wells in Guyana are deep wells, located in water depths of 1,500–1,900 metres within the Stabroek Block. Such wells carry heightened environmental risks, exemplified by the 2010 BP Macondo disaster, which unleashed nearly five million barrels of crude oil and gas into the Gulf of Mexico over 87 days.

The Jamaica Environment Trust (JET) has written these concerns to Prime Minister Andrew Holness, who chairs Jamaica’s National Disaster Response Mechanism (NDRM). No response has been forthcoming to date.

In light of these risks, it is imperative that the public is informed about Jamaica’s National Oil Spill Plan, which was approved in 2014 and covers Jamaica’s offshore waters and the shoreline (Contiguous Zone and Economic Exclusive Zone).

The plan also refers to land-based oil spills, including any body of water that may migrate to or flow into coastal waters.

Key questions arise: Does Jamaica possess adequate equipment to mitigate the impacts of an oil spill? Has Jamaica coordinated its response plan with that of Guyana, considering the potential cross-border implications? When was the last training for key personnel who would be involved in the response?

The National Plan states that national simulation exercises and drills should be conducted on a regular basis (minimum once every two years) to test the plan. Given that the plan is 10 years old and the risks of an oil spill are now much greater, are there plans to revise it in accordance to evaluation of simulation exercises and drills (i.e. every two years) or in response to any incidents exceeding its scope?

The disaster in Tobago is a cautionary tale. Let us recognise these grave risks and take proactive measures to safeguard our environment and economy.

Theresa Rodriguez-Moodie is the CEO of Jamaica Environment Trust.

As spill threatens other nearby countries

Venezuela offers technical help

2024, 02/16 Day 10

Technical meetings have taken place between Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago to assess the impact of the oil spill in Tobago and the necessary mitigation measures.
Venezuelan Foreign Affairs Minister Yvan Gil spoke of the meetings via X (formerly Twitter) yesterday.

Gil stated that as instructed by Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro, he has been following up on the oil spill and Venezuela remains available to co-operate with T&T on the matter.

Venezuela’s position is the latest development following the oil spill which occurred in Tobago last Wednesday, when a 90-metre capsized vessel, leaking oil, was sighted off a reef in The Cove area. It damaged coastlines from Scarborough to Lowlands. Containment and clean-up has been ongoing, led by Tobago Emergency Management Agency (TEMA) supported by Trinidad authorities and other agencies.

Opposition United National Congress officials said yesterday that questions on the oil spill will be posed to Government in Parliament today.

The National Security Ministry on Wednesday said investigations so far reveal that at least two vessels – a tug registered as Solo Creed and a barge named Gulfstream – were involved. Both vessels, traced from Panama, were said to be bound for Guyana but neither arrived there.

On Wednesday also, Tobago House of Assembly Chief Secretary Farley Augustine said the oil had moved into the Caribbean Sea nearing Grenada and he was ready to alert Caribbean neighbours who may be affected. Yesterday, Venezuelan officials said they assumed their country may be affected.

After Venezuelan Foreign Affairs Minister Gil’s post, Venezuelan sources said the technical discussions between T&T and Venezuela had taken place over the last two days online. They said Venezuela is committed to assisting T&T in the two main areas: containment and stabilisation of the oil and in identifying the barge that caused the oil spill.

Officials said the oil spill would have likely arisen in talks held in Venezuela yesterday between Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez and T&T Energy Minister Stuart Young.

Yesterday afternoon, Rodriguez posted on X that she was having a working meeting with Young.

Officials said that was for the Dragon Field project but they expected the Tobago oil spill would also arise.

Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley said recently that Young was to return to Caracas for talks on the Dragon Field project.

Meanwhile, T&T Government officials confirmed that an official request was made to Guyana to assist with investigations, where the reported destination in Guyana of the tug and barge and ownership of the vessels were concerned. The T&T Coast Guard has already been working with the Guyana Coast Guard on the matter.

A T&T official said word was being awaited on T&T’s request. Guyanese government officials Guardian Media contacted yesterday said they were obtaining a status report on the matter.

Young didn’t reply to texted queries on THA Chief Secretary Farley Augustine’s claims that Government may have “withheld critical” information about the barge. Augustine also claimed a What’sApp message he received indicated the barge was carrying 5,000 tonnes of fuel and that its owner was “one of those trying to buy” the Petrotrin refinery in Trinidad.

Communication Minister Symon de Nobriga, who said he’d read the comments in the newspaper, added, “I’m not prepared, and I don’t think any Government would be prepared to comment on a What’s App message from an unknown source. I don’t know where it came from.

“Also, the Government, through the Prime Minister, has stated that it is and will be working with the THA to resolve the problem as quickly as possible, and as information becomes available and is verified and proven factual, it can be shared with the population, THA and Chief Secretary. Government is doing that, as seen from the recent releases from the National Security Ministry.”

De Nobriga said all arms of the state who can be of assistance in the situation have been doing so – Energy, Works, National Security and other agencies, all being led by the Prime Minister in supporting Tobago. He noted that while the PM chaired last Sunday’s media briefing on the issue, the Chief Secretary also spoke.

“We as a Government continue to do all we have to do and can do to ensure the situation in Tobago is resolved in the interest of T&T.”

The Opposition UNC is filing queries on the oil spill issue for Government to reply to in Parliament today, a UNC spokesman said.

Yesterday, UNC MP Ravi Ratiram also questioned the oil spill’s environmental impact, clean-up methods and Government’s response. He said the spill created potential long-term environmental effects for the maritime and tourism industries.

Ratiram called on Government to give the cost of the clean-up and a comprehensive plan to reassure Tobagonians they are “managing the crisis responsibly”. He also sought information on the substance involved in the spill and the potential consequences for marine ecosystems.

Meanwhile, the Fishermen and Friends of Sea (FFOS) is querying what will become of the oil that is drifting northwest that hasn’t been contained.

FFOS added, “This disaster is yet another reason why an effective national radar network is needed. It underscores the urgency of a collaborative Caricom network with synchronised laws and penalties, emergency response, information sharing, and offshore surveillance…”

FFOS has called for answers on the whereabouts of the tug that was pulling the barge, stressing that abandonment of the hydrocarbon toxic substance which fouled Tobago’s coastlines must be a criminal charge.

Citing T&T’s laws and policies to protect against oil pollution, the FFOS asked who will bear the clean up-costs and when will the tug’s owners inform T&T of the volume of crude oil that was being transported.

“The last time anyone was charged for an oil spill was in 2013, when the now defunct Petrotrin was charged $20 million for spilling ,7000 barrels of bunker C fuel which came ashore in La Brea. We estimate this Tobago spill is already three times larger. Since then, there have been hundreds of spills, with an average of two per week, and Trinidad has never charged anyone,” FFOS general secretary Gary Aboud claimed.

The FFOS also asked when fisherfolk will be compensated and called for independent assessment of the efficacy of the booms and other clean-up measures.

ISABELANA

Colombia: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission

New US sanctions could drive Venezuelan exodus

Dragon: Reality, practicality and choices

TT Government confirms fuel leak offshore

European Space Agency-Tobago spill

Barge left Venezuela days before spill

Venezuela’s ‘fleet’

Plugging the leaking Gulfstream

PM responds to cover-up claims
Oil spill link to Petrotrin ridiculous’

Slick enters Venezuela territorial waters

TT yet to identify wreck’s owner

Hydropower

Mayaro combats illicit traffic with US aid

Opposition resists salary rise for public officers

CROSQ launches e-learning courses

Service is not servitude

Indian energy resource head: Change mindset on climate change

, Dr Vibha Dhawan, interacts with Latin America and Caribbean journalists

India’s Minister: ‘Caribbean, Latin America important trade partners’

Venezuela, Guyana eschew war

What goes up will come down

Oil disaster is a cautionary tale

As spill threatens other nearby countries

Prices WTI

Brent

(All data from OIL-PRICE.NET)

Meta

ISABELANA

Colombia: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission

New US sanctions could drive Venezuelan exodus

Dragon: Reality, practicality and choices

TT Government confirms fuel leak offshore

European Space Agency-Tobago spill

Barge left Venezuela days before spill

Venezuela’s ‘fleet’

Plugging the leaking Gulfstream

PM responds to cover-up claims Oil spill link to Petrotrin ridiculous’

Slick enters Venezuela territorial waters

TT yet to identify wreck’s owner

Hydropower

Mayaro combats illicit traffic with US aid

Opposition resists salary rise for public officers

CROSQ launches e-learning courses

Service is not servitude

Indian energy resource head: Change mindset on climate change

, Dr Vibha Dhawan, interacts with Latin America and Caribbean journalists

India’s Minister: ‘Caribbean, Latin America important trade partners’

Venezuela, Guyana eschew war

What goes up will come down

Oil disaster is a cautionary tale

As spill threatens other nearby countries

PM responds to cover-up claims
Oil spill link to Petrotrin ridiculous’