Gulfstream in Trinidad after 30-hour voyage from Cove

2024, 08/23

Six months after wreaking environmental havoc on Tobago’s Windward coast, the mysterious Gulfstream barge is in Port-of-Spain and undergoing preparation for storage. The 100-metre-long vessel became the subject of environmental concern and political debate after February 7 when the Tobago Emergency Management Agency received reports of a capsized ship off the coast of Cove. Laboratory tests revealed that a thick, oily substance spreading on nearby beaches from Rockley Bay to Canoe Bay was bunker fuel. It was unclear when the barge capsized, what happened, who was on board, who owned it and its destination.

The Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries (MEEI) reported that it successfully floated the partially sunken barge at 11.54 pm on Monday. Two tug boats from the National Energy Corporation towed the barge from Cove, Tobago, to Sea Lots, in its overturned state, in a 30-hour voyage.

The operation followed the direction of technical experts from T&T Salvage LLC and QT Environmental. A Pollution Task Force comprising local responders and crews equipped with NOFI Current Buster Systems and Rapid Deployment Skimmer Systems (RDSS) attached to QT Environmental followed the tugs to facilitate the immediate capture and recovery of any residual hydrocarbons if needed.

“The MEEI reported that the transit of the barge progressed smoothly and on schedule. ADCI-certified divers completed survey assessments of the barge at 5.25 pm on August 21 off Chacachacare, Trinidad. The results of this survey provided the assurance needed for the vessel to enter the Sea Lots channel. The last stage of the journey to Sea Lots, Port-of-Spain, was completed at 6.43 am.”

Weather conditions coupled with high and low tides were two principal factors governing the timing and execution of the re-float and tow exercise. The last phase of the operation entails technical experts preparing the barge for storage. They will then officially hand over the barge to the Director of Maritime Services Lt Cmdr Ronald Alfred, as the Principal Receiver of Wrecks, who is empowered under the Shipping Act to exercise general direction and supervision over all matters relating to wrecks and salvage.

This handover will represent the completion of the scope of operations handled by the Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries and its international partners, T&T Salvage/QT Environmental.

Minister Stuart Young thanked everyone involved in the oil spill containment efforts and transport of the Gulfstream safely to Trinidad. The Ministry has not yet announced whether authorities identified and contacted the owner of the barge and if the State can proceed with a lawsuit. MEEI can contact the African diplomats in Caricom to demand compensation for Tobago from oil-rich offenders.

 

 

 

 

 

Trade, diplomatic relations between Canada and T&T

2024, 08/25

Canada has been an important partner to T&T since the 18th century and in recent decades, bilateral relations have become even closer and more critical for both nations. Arif Keshani is the outgoing high commissioner for Canada, having spent the last two years in the petrostate.

While Canada and T&T established diplomatic relations in 1962, trade relations extend to the 1700s, when products were traded by ships. Today, Canada’s footprint can be seen everywhere in T&T, from popular banks such as Scotiabank, CIBC and RBC to the Presbyterian churches and schools and lesser-known facts.

T&T passports and coins are made by a Canadian company. There is a petrochemical connection a Canadian company assisted in the clean-up in the aftermath of the Tobago oil spill disaster in February.

“It’s a robust relationship. I think there is always opportunity to grow and expand that relationship.”

He hailed the Ministry of Trade’s decision to designate a trade attaché for North America. In July last year, five commercial officers and commercial attachés were appointed to represent T&T in the international trade and investment arena.

Former government minister Darryl Smith was appointed for the North American region. “That’s going to assist in bringing more investments back to T&T but also helping T&T export their products. We have trade commissioners here in T&T on the commercial side, and their portfolio includes assisting Canadian companies coming to T&T to do business but also helping encourage investment in Canada.”Trade relations have matured “and will continue to grow under these initiatives.”

Such growth has been trickling into other sectors, such as culture and the arts. In recent months, two films, Doubles and No Boundaries, produced by Canadian directors, opened in T&T. Canadian authors were profiled at this year’s Bocas Literature Festival, including Dionne Brand, Premee Mohamed and Zalika Reid-Benta.

“These types of exchanges are increasing and flourishing.”

Economically, a large driver of trade relations has been the Caribbean-Canada Trade Agreement, CARIBCAN, which is valid until December 2033, under which 98 per cent of TT exports, including methanol, rum, and biscuits, enter the Canadian market free from taxes.

This area of trade relations was one which Canada wishes to support and expand while labelling it a priority. “This is a growing area. We are looking at expanding these provisions and making it even more facilitative for T&T businesses to be able to export to Canada.”

North America has increasingly become a destination for seeking to work and live abroad. Canada’s search for skilled labour in certain areas has been attractive for citizens wanting to move.

Over 100,000 migrants from TT live and work in Canada but Keshani brings it down to the “transnational lives” in the modern world. “We’re also seeing a large Canadian diaspora in T&T. Many of these are dual nationals, but it is a growing constituency of individuals choosing to live in T&T and holding Canadian citizenship, so these transnational exchanges are certainly experienced between both our countries but are a global phenomenon.”

The calibre of applicants Canada gets is high and can account for the large number selected from T&T. During Keshani’s time as high commissioner, access to Canada became even simpler last June when Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) added T&T to 12 additional countries to its “partial visa exempt countries” list, meaning travellers can apply for an electronic travel authorisation (eTA) instead of a (visitor) visa. We’re facilitating more of those people-to-people exchanges between our two countries. It underpins other parts of our relationship as well. Commercial relations are also bolstered by this development.”

The move not only takes us into the future but also shows that TT migrants respect Canada’s entry and exit requirements. He emphasised that not all countries in the Caribbean were afforded this opportunity.

While diplomatic relations have been stable, the sedition charges against Canadian vlogger Christopher “Chris Must List” Hughes threw the spotlight on Keshani and his team. Hughes appeared in court charged with making a seditious publication. He had pleaded not guilty to the offence and is being represented by Pamela Elder.

Asked about how this case was treated by the Canadian High Commission, Keshani said, “This case has received a lot of attention in the local media and to some degree in international media. It’s an area of our bilateral relations that each country takes very seriously, and that’s consular relations and the support we provide to our own nationals abroad. It’s clear that when anybody travels abroad, they have to follow the rules of the host country.

That is a clear element of international law … I can confirm we are providing support in this case; I can’t speak to the specifics of it because it is protected by our privacy legislation, and we will continue to provide support to the extent which we can in this case.”

Diplomatic relations remain sound and were not shaken by the controversy. Keshani is most happy with his time as Canadian high commissioner and where both nations cooperate. Both countries cooperate significantly on security and defence.

One of these aspects of Canada that has been brought to T&T was the women, peace, and security agenda.In the space of a year, there has been good progress. Sensitisation workshops included members of the Defence Force, the Police Service, academics, and civil society who met to identify the elements of what a women, peace and security action plan should mean.  In January, the Ministry of Gender and Child Affairs launched an advisory committee to be able to shape the national action plan which will be the first in the region.

“It’s an opportunity to model how this could work in a Caribbean setting.”

People typically think about women, peace and security in conflict zones but it can be adapted to insecurity. Speaking about his experience as high commissioner over the last two years, Keshani concluded,

“In one word, it’s been very positive. It’s a real privilege to be able to be a high commissioner in a country where we have such positive relations. On the personal side, it’s been very fulfilling. There is a genuine warmth that I discovered when I came to this country and I was received by the nationals at both a professional and personal level. This is a country that has made an indelible mark on me.”

 

 

 

TT promotes methanol for airlines

2024, 08/23

Energy Minister Stuart Young pitched the idea that methanol should be considered as an alternative aviation fuel at the opening session of the CAPA Airline Leader Summit Latin America and Caribbean. The industry is one of the highest emitters of greenhouse gas and, following use of methanol to power marine vessels, it is an avenue the industry could explore to reduce emissions.

“Methanol is a clean burning fuel, and the aviation industry is looking at how you clean up aviation fuel, what are the blends you can utilise. T&T is well advanced in that, and it was one of the issues, one factor that is going to prove to give us a competitive advantage.”

The aim is for T&T to become a hub for the aviation industry and Caribbean Airlines is willing to partner with all other airlines in routes that make sense.   “The Cabinet has given them (CAL) authorisation to go ahead and acquire aircraft to start flying routes into South America.”

Young urged the aviation industry to provide solutions for better connectivity.
“When I was in Venezuela for energy meetings, what was supposed to be an hour and a half flight took nine hours to reach Caracas. I had to go to Panama. Caracas is buzzing with opportunity as a result of their energy sector, so that is the route that should be looked at by the industry.”

Works and Transport Minister Rohan Sinanan said T&T’s hosting of the conference underlines the country’s growing interest and investment in the industry. T&T is poised for growth in the sector and has made strides to widen its airline connections around the world.

“You would have seen the ministry signing air services agreements in several parts of the world in recent times, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, the Netherlands. We are looking at Ghana, Nigeria shortly, and several other areas. So, we are very serious about the aviation industry in T&T.”

While many may regard T&T as a traditional tourism spot, other aspects attract travellers.

“We have a very vibrant tourism, energy sector and manufacturing sector. So the airlines who are attracted can sell their entire first fleet with business travellers coming in and out of this country… we are very serious about the aviation industry,”

Executives from various airlines spoke on panels about the outlook for airline restructuring and financing; mergers and consolidation, along with market exits and new start-ups; financing and constraints of regional infrastructure; domestic and international tourism outlook and regional efforts towards aviation sustainability.

Many said the regions have seen travel bounce back after the pandemic in the way that Latin America and the Caribbean have. However,  despite this positive momentum for travel, regional profitability remains elusive and performance varies substantially from market to market.

Delegates from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Germany came to T&T for the summit in the English-speaking region.

 

 

 

 

Stock meltdown raises T&T concerns

2024, 08/11

It may not have been the “Black Monday” that stock markets experienced in 1987, but last Monday’s stock market plunge around the world is already being described as a meltdown.

Black Monday was the severe global and largely unexpected stock market crash on Monday, October 19, 1987. Worldwide losses were estimated at US$1.71 trillion. The severity of the crash sparked fears of extended economic instability or even a reprise of the Great Depression.

US newspaper Wall Street Journal asked if the stock market slump on Monday was 1987 all over again.

“Financial markets are supposed to capture the wisdom of the crowd, but on Monday the crowd ran in all directions waving its hands in the air screaming. Japan’s stock market fell the most in 37 years with a 12 per cent plunge that wiped out all its gains for the year, while in the US the VIX index of implied stock volatility briefly had its biggest rise ever. Panic hit.”

The selloff was triggered by the jobs data in the US prompting a sudden switch in the economic narrative from soft landing to hard landing. As late as Friday, observers remained pessimistic as CNN, in an article, noted that Japanese stocks had quickly lost steam, as the specter of a US economic slowdown and further yen volatility cast a long shadow across global financial markets.

Several local economists spoke about the repercussions from Monday’s tumultuous international events.

Vaalmikki Arjoon said it was a “Monday-Meltdown” in global stock markets as mass sell-offs resulted in a staggering US $6.4 trillion wipe-out.

“This largely stemmed from investor overreaction and panic about fears of an impending US recession, owing to recent US unemployment announcements, which highlighted that the job market – a key driver of the US economy – has lost steam. In July, the unemployment rate surged to a three-year high of 4.3 per cent, with new hires at only 114,000, well below the previously anticipated 175,000.”

This announcement triggered fears of an looming US recession among many investors, based on the “Sahm rule,” which posits that whenever the three-month average unemployment rate rises 0.5 per cent from the lowest point in the last 12 months, then the economy is in the early signs of a recession. Since January,  it rose by 0.6 per cent.

“Indeed, employment levels in the US directly affect consumer spending, constituting a significant portion of economic activity. A higher unemployment rate of 4.3 per cent raised fears of declining consumer spending, lower business revenues, and operational cutbacks, driving concerns of an economic slowdown.”

Given that global financial markets are interconnected, Arjoon noted that the mass sell-offs in the US triggered similar activity in Asian and European markets. Many companies in Europe and Asia are closely interconnected with the U.S. economy.

“Fears of an impending US recession can lead investors to anticipate that the financial performance of these companies will be negatively impacted, prompting them to sell-off stocks of these companies. Also, given that the US is the largest economy in the world, a sell-off in the US raised concerns about the health of the global economy, prompting investors to reassess risks and sell off equities in other markets. In Tokyo, the Nikkei was down 12 per cent. In Seoul, the Kospi sank 9 per cent.

“Investors often react to large market movements with a herd mentality. Seeing a significant sell-off in US markets can lead to fear and uncertainty, prompting investors globally to sell assets in other markets  preemptively, fearing similar declines.”

In T&T, Arjoon said the downturn in stock markets potentially decreases the value of the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF) due to its significant equity exposure, 25 per cent in US equities and 21 percent in international equities.

“The mass sell-off has driven stock prices down, lowering the value of the Fund’s investments. However, the fixed income portion of the HSF likely benefited from increased US Treasury bond purchases, as investors ‘flew’ to this safer asset, driving up bond prices. This could partially offset the equity losses, but given the extent of the equity market decline, the overall impact on the HSF is likely a decrease in value. Local institutional investors with US-dollar equity mutual funds and pension funds exposed to equity markets, have also been adversely affected, experiencing declines in their investment values. Those with substantial fixed income holdings have gained from rising bond prices.”

However, many local institutional investors employ a buy and hold strategy, which involves maintaining investments over the long term despite market fluctuations.

“This approach aims to capitalise on long-term growth and compounding returns. In the current scenario, these investors now have the opportunity to acquire US equities at reduced prices, positioning themselves to benefit from future price increases as the market recovers.”

While U.S. commentators and economists are already debating if there will be a recession, he said if the U.S. enters a recession, T&T will likely face significant ripple effects due to its status as T&T’s largest trading partner.

“A downturn in the US economy could lead to decreased imports of T&T’s manufactured goods, resulting in lower export revenues and forex earnings. Additionally, US-based Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in our economy may diminish. The tourism sector might also suffer, as reduced travel by American tourists could lead to fewer visitors and decreased revenue. Our food processors, which supply food items to hotels across the Caribbean, could experience a decline in exports as tourism drops in the region.

“Moreover, a US recession could negatively impact revenue streams from other trading partners. As the US imports less from them, these partners might reduce purchases from T&T. Many Trinidadians living in the U.S. send remittances back home. A US recession could result in job losses or reduced income for these expatriates, leading to lower remittance flows to T&T.”

Former Central Bank Governor, Winston Dookeran, who held positions as planning minister and finance minister in different administrations over the last 40 years, said that the T&T stock market is normally immune from these developments.

“I would not expect any volatility emerging. We need to watch interest rate movements and the Fed action, as that would affect the terms of financing for T&T, but not the stock market in T&T. The terms of financing could affect the macro behaviour of the T&T economy by increasing cost of transactions and applying pressure on foreign reserves.”

 

 

 

Colombia

29 Aug, 20/24

Arrow Exploration, the high-growth operator with a portfolio of assets across key Colombian hydrocarbon basins, provided an update on operational activity for the three and six months ended June 30, 2024.

CNB HZ-4 The third horizontal well on the Carrizales Norte ‘B’ pad (CNB HZ-4) is now on production and exceeding expectations.

• With a current flow rate exceeding 2,500 BOPD gross (1,250 BOPD net to Arrow), production is continuing to increase.
• Currently the well has an 8% water cut while still recovering load fluid.
• Management expects the CNB HZ-4 well will reach IP production rates similar to the Company’s first two horizontal wells.
• Initial production flows are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery.
• A stabilized production rate will be determined in the first few weeks of operations, in keeping with conservative reservoir management.

Further updates will be provided in due course. CNB HZ-4 was spud on July 28 and reached a target depth of 8,452 feet (true vertical depth) on August 12. The well was drilled to a total measured depth of 13,335 feet with a horizontal section of approximately 3,940 feet. CNB HZ-4 came on production on August 26, 2024, with the use of an electric submersible pump (ESP) and, based on initial results, has displayed comparable reservoir characteristics as CNB HZ-1.

CNB HZ-3  continues to perform above expectations and is being restricted to a current flow rate of 1,920 BOPD gross (960 BOPD net) with approximately 31% water cut. Average production for the first 30 days of production (IP30) was 2,212 BOPD gross (1,106 BOPD net). The well is being restricted to optimize reservoir performance and ultimate recovery.

CNB HZ-1  is continuing to perform above expectations and is being restricted to a current flow rate of 2,090 BOPD gross (1,045 BOPD net) with approximately 41% water cut. CNB HZ-1 average production for the first 60 days of production (IP60) was 2,375 BOPD gross (1,188 BOPD net).

Drilling Technology Drilling metrics continue to improve in the horizontal program regarding both time and cost. Improvements reflect the learnings taken from CNB HZ-1 and CNB HZ-3 as the operations team continues to focus on improving capital and operating costs and creating further shareholder value.

The CNB HZ-4 is the first Arrow well to use Autonomous Inflow Control Devices (AICDs) which are designed to limit the water cut in horizontal wells. The results of CNB HZ-4 will be closely monitored to determine if these technologies or others will enhance production and ultimate recovery in the Ubaque reservoir.

Upcoming Drilling :   The rig has been moved to the fifth cellar on the Carrizales Norte B Pad where the Company spud the fourth horizontal well (CNB HZ-5) on August 22. Thereafter, the Company expects to drill two more horizontal wells on the B pad, followed by the Chorreron-1 (formerly Baquiano-1) exploration well, which is on trend with the Carrizales Norte field.

Corporate Update : Current net corporate production is approximately 5,000 BOE/D, inclusive of CNB HZ-1, CNB-3 and CNB HZ-4.

Arrow’s cash position was approximately $12 million on August 1, 2024. Arrow has maintained a healthy balance sheet with no debt.

Q2 2024 Highlights:

• Successfully drilled three development Carrizales Norte (CN) wells, including the first horizontal well.
• Recorded $15.1 million of total oil and natural gas revenue, net of royalties, representing a 47% increase when compared to the same period in 2023 (Q2 2023: $10.3 million).
• Net income of $1.2 million (Q2 2023: loss of $0.8 million).
  Adjusted EBITDA(1) of $8.9 million, a 53% increase when compared to 2023 (Q2 2023: $5.8 million).
• Average corporate production of 2,546 boe/d (Q2 2023: 2,169 boe/d).
  Realized corporate oil operating netbacks(1) of $51.21/bbl.
• Cash position of $10.8 million at the end of Q2 2024.
  Generated H1 2024 operating cashflows of $15.7 million (H1 2023: $7.4 million).
• Recognized an impairment in its Canadian oil & gas properties for $1.5 million due to low natural gas prices.
  (1)Non-IFRS measures – see ‘Non-IFRS Measures’ section within the MD&A

Post Period End Highlights:

• Drilled three additional CN wells, including two horizontal wells and one disposal well.
  Spud the CNB HZ-5 from the CNB pad. The Company expects to be able to provide an update on the production figures for CNB HZ-5 in the coming weeks.

Outlook:

• Continuing with the balanced delivery of the 2024 capital program, the majority of which will be focused on the Carrizales Norte field and will include additional horizontal wells.
• Low risk exploration well planned at the Chorreron prospect.
• The remaining 2024 capital program will be self-funded by a combination of cash flow from operations and cash reserves.

Marshall Abbott, CEO of Arrow Exploration Corp., commented:

‘The horizontal well program at the CNB pad continues to exceed expectations, and the Company now plans to drill two additional horizontal wells before moving to the Chorreron prospect (formerly named Baquiano). This will result in a total of six horizontal wells at Carrizales Norte in 2024 with additional horizontal wells being planned for 2025.

The Arrow team continues to reduce the time and costs needed to drill horizontal and vertical wells, using internally generated development drilling and completion strategies.

Arrow experienced material growth in production, revenue and earnings in Q2 2024 compared to Q2 2023. This growth was achieved while preparing for the highly successful horizontal well program at Carrizales Norte. This included the Q1 and Q2 Carrizales Norte vertical well program to delineate the Ubaque reservoir, as well as preparing pads, roads, oil transportation and water disposal infrastructure.’

‘Arrow’s focus for the remainder of 2024 will be the completion of the six well horizontal well program at Carrizales Norte as well as a low-risk exploration well at the Chorreron prospect.

A second rig is being evaluated to begin development drilling at the RCE field towards the end of 2024. In 2025, Arrow plans another aggressive capital program focused on production growth and exploration. Arrow plans to drill low risk exploration wells at Mateguafa Oeste, Capullo, and Mateguafa Attic.

The Company is also targeting further horizontal Ubaque and vertical C7 development drilling at Carrizales Norte, and Chorreron, if successful, and the drilling of development vertical wells at Rio Cravo Este in 2025.

This enhanced capital program underlies the prolific setting of the Tapir Block in the Llanos Basin in Colombia. The block displays significant hydrocarbon density in multiple oil-bearing zones down to 10,000 feet total depth.’ Source: Arrow Exploration

 

 

 

Colombia

Drilling of world’s deepest offshore well planned for this year

David Wethe and Andrea Jaramillo, August 01, 2024
(Bloomberg)

The oil and gas industry is pushing the limits of offshore exploration with plans to drill a record-setting deepwater well in Colombia within months.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. and Ecopetrol SA are gearing up to plumb the depths of Colombia’s Caribbean waters in search of oil and gas. The plan is to drill the Komodo-1 well before the year is out in seas roughly 3,900 m (close to 13,000 ft) deep. That’s equal to about 10 Empire State Buildings stacked on top of each other and would shatter the current water-depth record holder in Angola.

Oil and gas operators around the world are returning to the deep seas as production growth from North American shale fields slows, forcing companies to expand drilling in other places. SLB, the world’s biggest oil field-services provider, sees the potential for more than $100 billion in commitments to offshore projects for 2024-2025.

“Offshore and deepwater are currently undergoing a remarkable renaissance, driven by the imperatives of energy security, regionalization, and a maturing and disciplined North American shale supply,” James West, an analyst at Evercore ISI, wrote in a note to investors.

Offshore drillers measure wells in two ways: water depth and so-called true vertical depth, or TVD. The first measures the distance between the rig floating on the surface and the spot on the sea floor where drilling will begin. TVD, on the other hand, measures the distance between the rig and the bottom of the well deep inside the Earth.

The effort to break the water-depth record with Komodo-1 has been enabled in part by improved marine-seismic technology that allows exploration at greater depths and distances, Ecopetrol’s offshore chief Elsa Jaimes said during an interview.

Colombia is exploring its huge offshore potential as some onshore reserves begin to peter out, she said. “You have the technology and you also have this huge potential that strengthens our portfolio,” Jaimes added.

Worldwide, more than 40 wells are expected to be drilled this year in seas of least 1,500 m, which would make 2024 the busiest for ultra-deepwater drilling in a decade, according to industry data provider Enverus.

“The fact that we can drill to those depths is what’s driving” the push, said Dai Jones, director of global intelligence at Enverus. Increasing energy demand also is providing a push, he noted.

During the previous decade, deep-sea drillers rapidly expanded rig fleets only to run headlong into the onshore shale revolution and back-to-back oil-market collapses in 2014 and 2016. Some of the world’s biggest offshore drillers resorted to mothballing floating rigs that cost $500 million or more apiece to build.

Deepwater wells will supply as much as one-fourth of global oil output by the end of this decade, compared with about 20% today, according to SLB.

“We are seeing customers going deeper and deeper to more challenging environments,” Wallace Pescarini, president of SLB’s Offshore Atlantic business, said in a phone interview. “It’s natural that the easiest to tap is behind us. So now the new frontiers are a little deeper and a little bit higher pressure.”

While the total cost of offshore exploration is much higher than shale drilling, the potential payouts are massive, longer lasting and more insulated from shifting political and regulatory regimes, according to Enverus’ Jones. Relative to shale, however, the risk of drilling a so-called dry hole — industry jargon for failing to strike oil — is exponentially higher in the ocean.

 

 

 

Colombia can lead the energy transition in Latin America

By Juan Gomez

Colombia’s geography gives it a chance to take a leadership role in Latin America’s energy transition. But to do so, Colombian leaders will first need to address indigenous concerns, remove barriers to investment, and fix long-standing mismanagement issues.

 

 

 

Deepwater well offshore Colombia delineates Petrobras gas find

August. 6, 2024

Petrobras’ Uchuva-2 appraisal well offshore Colombia has confirmed the extent of the 2022 gas discovery Uchuva-1 well on the Tayrona Block.

Uchuva-2 well was spudded on June 19, 31 km offshore in a water depth of 804 m.

Drilling continues in the five-phase program, with the gas-bearing interval verified at Phase 4 through wireline logging. Laboratory analyses will follow.   (Courtesy Petrobras)

Petrobras is operator with a 44.44% interest, in partnership with Ecopetrol (55.56%). The remaining focus will be on drilling the well to the expected depth and characterizing the conditions of the reservoirs encountered, with a probable formation test by the end of the year.Petrobras, following up on the release on 07/29/2022, informs that it has achieved the main target of the Uchuva-2 well, confirming the extent of the gas discovery made in 2022 with the drilling of the Uchuva-1 well. This well adds relevant information for the development of a new frontier of exploration and production in Colombia, reinforcing the volumetric potential for gas in the region.

Uchuva-2 well, spudded on 06/19/2024, is located in deep waters in Colombia, 31 kilometers off the coast and at a water depth of 804 meters.The well is in progress, with five phases, and the gas-bearing interval was verified at phase 4 through wireline logging, which will be further characterized through laboratory analyses.

The consortium, constituted by Petrobras as operator (working interest 44.44%), in partnership with Ecopetrol working interest 55.56%) will continue operations to complete the project to drill the well to the expected depth and characterize the conditions of the reservoirs found, with the prediction of carrying out a formation test by the end of 2024.Petrobras’ operations in the Tayrona Block are in line with the company’s long-term strategy, aimed at replenishing oil and gas reserves through the exploration of new frontiers and acting in partnership, ensuring that global energy demand is met during the energy transition.

Source: Petrobras

 

 

 

OPEC+ has limited scope to lift oil output amid rising supply

Rakesh Sharma, Bloomberg August 21, 2024

BP Plc Chief Economist Spencer Dale notes OPEC+ has limited scope to boost production as that would put pressure on oil prices, given rising supply from the U.S., Brazil and Guyana.

“They will also be nervous about bringing oil back on because if they do so, total supplies are growing more quickly than demand and that will lead to instability in the market,” Dale told media in India, adding that the decision is up to the group itself.

Global oil markets are poised to swing from a deficit to a surplus next quarter should OPEC+ proceed with provisional plans to restore idled production starting in October, data last week from the International Energy Agency showed. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have been withholding supplies for almost two years to prop up prices.

However, crude has given up most of its gains this year as PRC’s lackluster economy countered OPEC+ supply cutbacks. That leaves the oil market divided over whether OPEC+ will unwind some of its production cuts. Apart from demand, tensions in the Middle East, supply disruptions and weather conditions will determine oil prices next year, Dale said.

 

 

 

Latin America Development Bank

August 21

Sergio Diaz-Granados, executive president of the Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) announced senior executive, external relations, Gianpiero Leoncini as its new vice president , appointed after consultation with the CAF board.

“In accordance with article 48 of CAF’s general regulations, the executive vice president is the most senior international officer after the executive president. He is responsible for the internal operational management of the bank in matters of human resources, technology, physical infrastructure, administration, budget, operations control, planning, impact measurement and corporate strategy monitoring.”

Leoncini’s appointment was part of the bank’s strategic agenda, which includes formulating work programmes with the public and private sector to promote sustainable and inclusive growth and regional integration. Leoncini, a national of Peru, had a 14-year career in the bank, where he held positions of principal executive, senior executive in external relations and adviser to the vice- president.

Between 2019 and 2023, he was responsible for CAF’s strategy and actions in Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados, including the origination of loans and the implementation of technical assistance to support the economic and social development policies in these countries. During this period, CAF’s portfolio in TT and Barbados increased from US$700 million at the beginning of 2019 to US$1.45 billion at the end of 2022.

 

 

 

Panama Canal lifts vessel draft to 50 feet

August 16th 2024

The Panama Canal Authority (ACP) has notified shipping lines that the maximum draught for vessels passing through the Neopanamax locks between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans has been increased to 50 feet (15.24 meters). The ACP explained this decision was made in light of the current and projected water levels in Lake Gatun for the coming weeks. The ACP announced an additional transit quota for the Panamax locks, the waterway’s oldest, starting next Sept. 1, for 36 daily slots: 10 for neopanamax vessels and 26 for panamax vessels.

The news reflects the Canal’s commitment to return to normal operating conditions and maintain a safe, reliable, and efficient service following recent capacity adjustments due to the prolonged drought caused by climatic variations that caused a severe water crisis in 2023, affecting the levels of the Gatun and Alhajuela man-made lakes.

Currently, 35 ships pass through daily, 25 of them through the old locks and 10 through the expansion built in 2016, which allows the passage of ships with up to three times the cargo of the original panamax. Thursday marked the 110th anniversary of the first crossing of the canal by the Ancon steamship. The structure, which connects more than 1,900 ports in 170 countries, accounts for 6% of the world’s seaborne trade. Its main users are the United States, China, Japan, and South Korea.

 

 

 

 

 

 

What is next?

Economist Marino Browne  2024, 08/04

Making multi-million dollar investment decisions is not easy and the process generally takes time to examine all the identifiable risks. Many risks must be evaluated before a final investment decision is concluded. These risks can be grouped into five main categories: technical, economic, financial, operational and political.

Each category of risks can be subdivided into individual risk areas. Evaluating these risks is more complicated than most people imagine. It involves evaluating each risk category under several different scenarios and at different stages in the life of a project.

Evaluating political risk is a very thorny issue as the Venezuela situation demonstrates. The Biden administration relaxed the sanctions regime against Venezuela to encourage the Maduro regime to facilitate free and fair elections to allow regime change by the ballot box.

T&T is invested in the outcome of the elections as it has been attempting to facilitate access to Venezuelan gas. The relaxation in the US sanctions regime allowed GORTT to obtain a two-year exemption from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) which administers the USA’s sanctions regime.

The exemption allowed the Shell/NGC joint venture to obtain an exploration and production licence for the Dragon gas field from the Venezuelan Government after many years.

A BPTT/NGC joint venture has also been negotiating for similar access to Venezuela’s gas reserves. BPTT and Shell are the majority owners of Atlantic LNG, and the National Gas Company is a minority owner with a ten per cent shareholding. Further, Shell and BPTT are responsible for over 70 per cent of the gas used as feedstock in industrial production in T&T. Train 1 is closed, and the other plants are operating well below capacity.

The negotiations for access to Venezuela gas indicate an urgency to obtain additional gas to supplement production in T&T. The joint venture percentages (70 per cent and 75 per cent respectively) infer that Shell and BPTT’s priority is to maintain ALNG’s output. It also suggests that there is concern about the reliability of future domestic natural gas production.

Drilling for gas in deeper waters in T&T may not be feasible given the reluctance of the energy majors to bid for additional acreage in successive bid rounds. Neither is importing LNG to keep the petrochemical sector alive. Therefore, getting natural gas from Venezuela is a strategic imperative. This is the context explaining T&T’s interest in the conduct and outcome of Venezuela’s elections on July 28.

President Maduro seemed confident of victory even though the Opposition appeared to be ahead in the polls. However, the post-election outcome and the fallout were entirely predictable. Both the Opposition and the incumbent claimed victory and international observers indicated that the elections were not free and fair. This is nothing new as this has been the position since 2013.

What is new is T&T’s need for Venezuela’s gas. That may not coincide with the geopolitical situation. The US State Department responded to the announcement that President Maduro had won the election and expressed its concerns over the conduct of the election process. Its attempt to obtain a vote censuring Venezuela at the Organization of American States failed with T&T amongst other Caricom American States absent.

On August 1, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken officially declared Edmundo González as the winner of Venezuela’s presidential election against Nicolás Maduro “… Given the overwhelming evidence …” This was the route travelled in 2019 when Juan Guaidó, then rotating President of Venezuela’s National Assembly, declared himself President of Venezuela and had his claim to the presidency recognised by the US and several other powerful Western governments. The difference this time is that Edmundo González participated in the presidential campaign. It confirms that the US is implacably opposed to Maduro.

What is going to happen next? Will the OFAC licences be withdrawn, and tighter sanctions imposed on Venezuela? How will the US elections in November alter the situation? These are early days. There is still time for positions to evolve.

This country’s economic interest requires an early resolution to this process but it has little leverage to persuade the Biden administration to extend the licence. The US administration calculated that relaxing the sanctions regime could induce the Maduro regime to hold a free and fair election.

Stories have emerged that there were sweeteners to facilitate Maduro’s exit and that of key members of his team.

That calculation has backfired. The logical response would be the reimposition of sanctions. This would end BPTT and Shell’s gambit for the time being. The result of the US election in November might bring a different calculation.

Geopolitical risk is the key to the success or failure to access Venezuela’s gas fields. Overcoming this risk is exceedingly difficult.   T&T needs more gas if ALNG and the petrochemical sector are to be kept alive and economically viable.

Not much can be achieved within the two-year OFAC exemption Without additional domestic gas production the outlook for both sectors is difficult. For the time being it does not look like this Dragon will dance. What is next?

Mariano Browne is the Chief Executive Officer of the UWI Arthur Lok Jack Global School of Business.

 

 

Caricom’s Venezuela muddle

Orin Gordon  2024, 08/04

At Caricom’s end-of-summit news conference in Grenada , chairman and host Dickon Mitchell spoke on a range of issues.  However, he circumnavigated the elephant in the room—the fraught presidential elections in Venezuela two days previously.

Everything Mitchell addressed is important to the region. Hurricane Beryl and the need for “climate justice”—having the biggest contributors to climate change pay for the damage done by it.  The latest efforts to ensure stability in Haiti. He spoke of the initiative to cut the regional food import bill by 25 per cent by next year—an issue he tossed to his predecessor as chair, Guyana’s President Dr Irfaan Ali.

We knew going into that news conference that Caricom leaders had discussed Venezuela—by then in the grip of serious post-election unrest—because Prime Minister of St Vincent and the Grenadines Dr Ralph Gonsalves had said that he would urge his colleagues to congratulate President Nicolas Maduro on his victory.

If the competing individual statements by a number of OECS countries and Guyana were any guide, the discussions were vigorous. Not a word on Venezuela from Prime Minister Mitchell.

Asked about the omission by Caribbean Media Corporation (CMC), the chairman’s response was astonishing.
“Caricom does not have to have a position. Elections in Venezuela are domestic matters. Firstly, Venezuela is not a member of Caricom. Secondly, we expect, and it has happened, that members will indicate their position.”

If the inexperienced prime minister does not want to be thought of as unready for responsibilities of Caricom chair, he would clean up those remarks.

He ought to have addressed the issue frontally, to begin with. Cuba is not a member of Caricom, yet he found the time to condemn the US’s decades-old embargo. Once prompted to do so, he should not have been rhetorically careless . Venezuela is of vital interest to Caricom. It is a major economic and trading partner of a number of countries and the main trading partner of some.

Four days before the elections, Maduro had granted a licence to T&T (in partnership with BP) for the exploration and production of natural gas from Cocuina, part of a larger gas field, Manakin-Cocuina, that straddles the maritime boundary between the two countries. The optics of the unfortunate timing of Minister of Energy Stuart Young were shared with bpTT’s president David Campbell.

Some Caricom leaders seem to go to great lengths to avoid upsetting Maduro. Their tepid statement last December equivocating Venezuela’s aggressive referendum on annexing 74 per cent of Guyanese territory was an example.

Another was their abstention and strategic absence when a resolution calling for greater electoral transparency was put to the vote at the Permanent Council of the Organization of American States in Washington on Wednesday. Caricom countries weren’t solely responsible for the failure of the resolution. Mexico and Brazil were as culpable. For some in Caricom, principle seems to come a distant second to economic self-interest; but I get that.

The governments were elected to –among other things– improve the economic prospects and well-being of their people.

After midnight on election night, amid opposition accusations of polling irregularities, Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE) had declared Maduro the winner over his main challenger Edmundo Gonzalez, 51.2 per cent to 44.2 per cent, with 80 per cent of the votes counted.

Maduro had successfully hobbled the candidacy of Maria Corina Machado who had won the opposition nominating contest by a landslide last year but was afterwards banned from holding public office. Her replacement, Corina Yoris, 80, was unable to file her candidate papers in time. Into the breach stepped former diplomat Edmundo Gonzalez.

The first to voice scepticism about the announced results were Latin American countries. Chilean President Gabriel Boric and others diplomatically; Argentina’s Javier Milei—a vocal, muscular ultra-conservative—far less so. The foreign ministries of seven Latin American countries, including Argentina, issued a more measured statement, calling on CNE to release details of the vote count.

Gonsalves’ declaration of satisfaction that same morning seemed indecently hasty. The people who know Maduro and the conditions in Venezuela best are his own Latin American neighbours.

 

 

 

TT uncertain over gas hegemony due to Venezuela unrest

2024. 08/07

Minister of Energy Stuart Young speaks during his visit to the NESC Drilling Academy in Ste Madeleine yesterday.

At the NESC Drilling Academy in Ste Madeleine, Energy Minister Stuart Young said citizens should be concerned about the drama unravelling in Venezuela since the July 28 presidential elections.

Young admitted “uncertainty” about when T&T could expect to begin receiving natural gas from Venezuela due to the political unrest there.. He is confident that the commercial terms and conditions of the licences for Dragon and Manakin-Coquina that the T&T Government negotiated with Venezuela could withstand scrutiny. Deadly protests erupted minutes after incumbent President Nicolas Maduro declared himself the winner.

Asked if he still expects the first supply of natural gas from Venezuela in the next two years given the existing situation, he said, “The truth is there is uncertainty, but what I can tell you is we are doing our part. I can tell you just last week we delivered to Venezuela, ourselves and Shell …We delivered the developmental plans for Dragon, so work continues.

There is right now the retaining of the survey vessel to go above the Dragon Field. BP is at work on the Coquina side, so we are only in control of ourselves and we are doing the work. The sooner that gas could come to market in Trinidad and Tobago, the better for all of us.”

Reiterating Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley’s position that T&T will not interfere in Venezuelan politics, he assured, “For Trinidad and Tobago, what I can tell you, we have a 30-year licence for Dragon; we have a 20-year licence for Coquina-Manakin. Those are significantly lenghtly licences and I am also certain, having negotiated many of these deals, etc, that the licences in all of the commercial terms and conditions of these licences can stand up to any scrutiny by anyone anywhere in the world.”

These were good deals for the people of Venezuela and T&T, from a commercial perspective and there is “very little concern” on his part. T&T’s gas deals with Venezuela involve the Dragon, Loran-Manatee, and Manakin-Coquina fields, and those commenting would be unaware of the commercial terms T&T had negotiated.

TT continues to monitor the US presidential election in November,but similar to Venezuela; it remains neutral.

“On behalf of Trinidad and Tobago, we’ve worked very hard to make sure we have relationships on both sides of the aisle and we remain engaged with both sides of the aisle as any responsible government should be. You have never heard us come out and take one side or the other, but we wait to see what the people of the United States decide.”

United Nations General Assembly President Ambassador Dennis Francis agreed with Rowley’s decision not to adopt a position in the Venezuela controversy, saying it was wise and pragmatic. At the opening of the solar park at Piarco International Airport last week, Young said he was confident that the gas deals would go forward, despite the situation in Venezuala.

“The recent projects that we have succeeded with, next door with Venezuela, Dragon (gas deal), Cocuina (Cocuina-Manakin cross-border gas field), developing Manatee (gas field), I just marked the spot to say we will continue to do these projects for the people of Trinidad and Tobago.”

 

 

 

T&T’s post-election relationship with Venezuela:

Analysts in wait-and-see mode

2024, 08/04

Venezuela is among countries that received letters of invitation in July from T&T’s Ministry of Works and Transport to submit proposals for the supply of over 100 buses to T&T.

Venezuela’s Ambassador to T&T, Álvaro Enrique Sánchez Cordero who shared this information said that Venezuela’s vehicle assembly industry has been experiencing growth as the economy has seen a rebound.

Large Venezuelan vehicle manufacturers like Encava have been diversifying their product lines by developing new vehicles, with Venezuelan technology and parts, like vans, buses and trucks. The Ambassador said,

“It speaks volumes of T&T’s confidence in Venezuela’s industrial capacity and economic recovery and willingness to co-operate,”

President of the Venezuelan Chamber of Automotive Products Manufacturers (FAVENPA), Omar Bautista, said Venezuela should assemble roughly 15,000 vehicles by the end of 2024. Venezuela’s Minister of Tourism, Alí Padrón, welcomed almost 500 Russian tourists to Margarita island and he specifically mentioned that T&T as and several other countries have been sending tourists to Venezuela which expects 1.5 million tourists this year.

Apart from tourism and the potential to supply vehicles manufactured in Venezuela to T&T, Venezuela and T&T have signed important energy agreements over the last year.

However, these business and energy ties are being called into question by some as social unrest rocked Venezuela following last Sunday’s presidential elections. Violence erupted in Venezuela since last Sunday’s presidential elections in which President Nicolás Maduro claimied victory while the opposition claimed the elections were fraudulent.

Opposition clashes with Venezuelan police have resulted in over ten dead and over 1,000 persons arrested, according to the Office of the Attorney General in Venezuela. The US Government said it now recognises Edmundo González Urrutia as the successful winner of the elections in Venezuela.

Russia and China, on the other hand, have recognised Maduro as the democratically re-elected President.

Energy agreements
Despite the political uncertainty that hangs over Venezuela, Francisco J. Monaldi— fellow in Latin American energy policy and the director of the Latin America Energy Program at the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in the United States— said he is optimistic that the natural gas agreements between Venezuela and T&T’s will survive in the long term. Monaldi said there could be some challenges in the short term.

Following the presidential elections, at the launch of the solar park at the Piarco International Airport,  Stuart Young, acting Prime Minister and Energy Minister, said that all oil and gas projects and deals with the Venezuelan Government will continue. He was in Venezuela, four days before the elections and announced the licence granted to T&T by Venezuela for the exploration and production of natural gas from Cocuina, part of the Manakin-Cocuina field. On December 21, the Venezuelan Government also signed a licence for Shell plc and the National Gas Company (NGC) to operate and exploit the

Dragon gas field.
Monaldi advised short-term challenges could emerge.

“The T&T Energy Minister pushed for that signing before the Venezuelan elections. I think that the intent of the Biden administration is that the gas projects should be continued and proceed, but it may be politically hard to approve a licence in the following months.

That might have to wait until the next US administration after the US elections. In case of the Shell project, they will not cancel the existing licence but they need another long-term licence that they have asked to proceed with the investment. I think that might be also delayed because of the current situation.”

Even if there is a transition to the opposition taking power in Venezuela, the agreements will not fall apart and in fact, there will be greater invitation to foreign investors.

“Of course, if there is a political resolution, a transition in Venezuela, all these things will have a higher probability of being actually pursued and greater investment will actually happen.

I tend to think that the Venezuelan opposition will not want to renegotiate and will want to move forward with whatever is signed. However, we don’t know the details of the contracts. There could be some things that they object to. In general, they will be more pro foreign investment in the oil and gas sector and they will be very interested in getting these projects done. Even if there is minimal renegotiation, I don’t see it as an obstacle for the projects to go forward.”

President Maduro’s ruling Socialist Party is in control of the Venezuelan Parliament, the judiciary and oil company PDVSA and even if the opposition is able to wrest power, his party could stand in the way of reforms the new Government could take.

“Theoretically, these agreements do not need to go through the National Assembly, so it should not be a problem. That is another reason why the opposition would want to leave the contracts as they would not want to open up any red flags there. The bottomline is licences are unlikely to be given in the next few months before the US election unless there is a resolution and eventually the US wants these contracts to move forward. The wild card is Trump as he has not said anything so far about Venezuela, so he could be hawkish against the Maduro regime or he could be transactional. So that’s an unknown at this point.”

Economist and former head of the Institute of International Relations at the University of the West Indies (UWI) St. Augustine Campus, Dr Anthony Gonzales said there are a lot of unknown variables that could affect the diplomatic and business relationship between T&T and Venezuela given the unrest in Venezuela at the moment.

“We have to wait until all this plays out and to see if Maduro will stay. The military stepping in, in some transition is also possible. Also, US sanctions may increase but they may continue with some exceptions for T&T. It’s impossible to predict how the situation will evolve and how it will affect these agreements. And when you add Trump possibly coming to power in the US, the problem becomes even more compounded.“

 

 

 

 

Venezuela election result needs validation

2024, 07/31

When it comes to Venezuela, we’ve been down this road before. The general election of 2018, after which Nicolas Maduro returned to the helm, was deemed rigged and was rejected by global superpowers, who declared that then-Opposition leader Juan Guaido was the recognised leader of the petrostate.

Here we are again, with another election returning Maduro and his government, followed by a wave of scepticism over whether the elections were fair and democratic.

As it stands today, those criticising the Maduro regime provided no evidence to support claims the election results are false, just as Maduro’s government provided no satisfactory proof it won fairly and squarely.

Scepticism over Venezuela’s election results is often fuelled by a recognition that Maduro embraces a more socialist political culture frowned upon by leading democracies, giving rise to a view that everything his regime does is nefarious and dictatorial.

However, the notion of “innocent until proven guilty” must apply to all, which leads us to the juncture of where the burden of proof in determining the truthful outcome of Sunday’s polls should lie.

The United States has already made its position known, asking Venezuela to release the results from each precinct. Guyana, in dispute with Venezuela over the Essequibo region, followed a similar path, with the government urging Venezuelan authorities to release verifiable information that Maduro won.

These calls, which place the burden of proof on Venezuela, are not unjustified, given that Maduro signed a pact for fair elections. In the Barbados Accord in Bridgetown on October 17, Maduro and Venezuelan opposition parties agreed to pursue electoral reforms ahead of the polls.

The level of positive expectation generated at that meeting resulted in an easing of US sanctions introduced in 2019 that have had significant economic impact on the Bolivarian state. At the time of the signing, it was hoped that if talks between the Maduro regime and Opposition had progressed smoothly and the election reform was undertaken as promised, then the US, European Union and Latin American governments could recognise the results, leading to a further easing of sanctions.

Progress made soon after the talks was reversed in March this year, when the Maduro administration detained two members of the leading opposition candidate’s campaign team and issued warrants for seven others, an act the US viewed as undermining the democratic process.

In that light, it is for the Maduro regime to validate the election results and remove all doubt the process was flawed or undemocratic. Allowing for independent scrutiny and verification of the results is the best way of doing so.

In the meantime, we await word from Caricom and our Government on their positions regarding the election results.

St Vincent and the Grenadines Prime Minister Dr Ralph Gonzalves’ call for Caricom to accept Sunday’s outcome and recognise Maduro, is premature and certainly does not coincide with the view of Guyana, whose president Dr Irfaan Ali is the current Caricom chairman.

T&T’s position is also important due to close ties with Venezuela, fortified by negotiations on Dragon Gas and, more recently, the Manakin-Cocuina agreements. We are eager, therefore, to hear Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley’s views on the Caracas results.

 

 

 

 

Between a rock and a hard place

2024, 08/06

The difficult balancing act of maintaining neutrality on Venezuela’s political crisis, while cooperating with the Maduro government to exploit cross-border gas fields, has become more complicated. for the TT regime.

The latest wave of political unrest in Venezuela, triggered by protests over the disputed results of the July 28 Presidential Election, raises the possibility that the United States could reverse course on its recent easing of sanctions against the petrostate. That could also mean reversals of recent clearance given by the US Treasury Department for T&T to explore the gas fields that straddle our maritime border with Venezuela.

A few weeks ago, many stops and starts on those projects seem to be coming to an end, when an agreement was reached with Venezuela on a 20-year natural gas production and exploration deal with BP and the National Gas Company (NGC). This allows for production from the Cocuina-Manakin field, off Trinidad’s south-east coast, with 25 per cent of production expected to supply this country’s petrochemical sector and the rest feeding the LNG industry.

In May the US Treasury Department granted T&T a licence to explore that natural gas field and in January 2023, permission was granted for work in the Dragon Gas field, which has estimated reserves of 4.2 trillion cubic feet of gas. These deals were only possible because of years of delicate diplomacy to keep prospects for cross-border exploration arrangements alive, even as Venezuela sank deeper into political and economic turmoil.

With no end in sight to the decade-old Venezuelan emergency, this country is now caught between a rock and a hard place as it attempts to keep a steady course during Venezuela’s latest upsurge in political instability.

Prime Minister Rowley’s decision not to make any pronouncements on the matter did not dispel the sense of uncertainty shrouding the dilemma.

At a PNM convention in his Diego Martin West constituency,  Dr Rowley maintained the regime’s long-held stance of avoiding any position on Venezuela’s political turmoil. While this could be a safe option if history repeats, as happened a few years back when attempts to install then-opposition leader Juan Guaidó as interim president failed, things could turn out differently.

Current efforts to dislodge Maduro from the presidency may not follow the same script and the expected fallout could have serious implications for this country. Physical proximity alone makes T&T very vulnerable should the predicament in Venezuela escalate.

The self-inflicted calamity which triggered the world’s largest mass migration-over n 7.7 million people fled since 2014 -could be entering a critical phase.

The Maduro regime’s failure to implement democratic reforms resulted in the US government re-imposing sanctions. Further action along those lines could stall planned development and exploration in the Dragon and Cocuina-Manakin fields, which would be disastrous for T&T.

That is why the Government’s hands-off posturing does not afford TT the benefit of being completely removed from turbulence next door. As determined as Dr Rowley might be not to take “anybody’s bush tea for a fever that we didn’t create,”

T&T is too close to avoid any consequences from Venezuela’s post-election debacle.

 

 

 

Rowley: T&T has no position on Venezuela

2024, 08/04

The cabinet will not take a position on Venezuela nor will the prime minister make any pronouncements. Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley has revealed his much anticipated position on the issue since Venezuela found itself back in global headlines after its elections last Sunday.

Thousands of people rallied in the streets of Venezuela’s capital on Saturday, waving the national flag and singing the national anthem in support of an opposition candidate they believe won the presidential election by a landslide. Authorities have declared President Nicolás Maduro the winner of last Sunday’s election but have yet to produce voting tallies to prove he won. Maduro also urged his backers to attend his own “mother of all marches” on Saturday in Caracas.

The Venezuelan government arrested hundreds of opposition supporters who took to the streets in the days after the disputed poll, and the president and his cadres have threatened to also lock up opposition leader, María Corina Machado, and her hand-picked presidential candidate, Edmundo González.

Rowley made T&T’s stance clear, saying, “There are people in Trinidad who have come from Venezuela because they didn’t like the last result and I’m not surprised that they are still here. But, what we have to be careful with is that we don’t take advice from people whose agenda and interests are not the same as T&T.

We would maintain our position until there is reason to change it. The last time we had to go to the UN and speak to the secretary-general. I don’t know if the same thing will happen again this time but what is happening is we are not without some interests in what goes on in Venezuela but whatever role we have to play, we’ll play it within the context of our understanding of and confirmation of the rules and regulations that govern people’s internal elections.”

Dr Rowley went further in comparing the opposition’s challenge to PNM’s victory in the local general elections in 2015.

“Here in T&T, we too had an election. PNM won an election. What did the opposition do? They went to court and told the court they want five seats canceled because the election was not properly held. Of course, our courts function.

They lost and up to this day parts of the courts not functioning anymore because the PNM cannot collect its costs from the UNC taking us to court and if there are challenges to the results in Venezuela, we will observe the facts as they surface, but T&T will not be out there on anybody’s instruction, ringing anybody’s bell, and taking anybody’s bush tea for a fever that we didn’t create.”

The Organisation of American States on Saturday called for “reconciliation and justice” in Venezuela, saying “let all Venezuelans who express themselves in the streets find only an echo of peace, a peace that reflects the spirit of democracy.”

 

 

 

 

Venezuela and TT

8th August

Senator the Honourable Dr. Amery Browne, Minister of Foreign and CARICOM Affairs, held discussions with His Excellency Álvaro Sánchez Cordero, Ambassador of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, at the Ministry of Foreign and CARICOM Affairs.

During the meeting, Ambassador Sánchez provided an update on developments pertaining to the post-election situation in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela following the Presidential Election on 28th July, 2024 and shared information on the electoral process and results. Both officials engaged in comprehensive discussion of matters arising, including regional and hemispheric implications.

The Minister expressed his appreciation for the information and interest in further updates as the situation evolves. On behalf of the Government of the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, Minister Browne extended best wishes to the Government and People of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

 

 

 

 

Venezuelans protest dubious election results

August 19th 2024 –

Venezuela’s opposition Unitarian Democratic Platform (PUD) protested in Caracas and other cities worldwide to insist that their candidate Edmundo González Urrutia needs to be recognized as winner of the July 28 polls instead of the incumbent Nicolás Maduro, whom the National Electoral Council (CNE) announced as victor without producing the minutes to back up their statement. In the main event in the capital, disenfranchised opposition leader María Corina Machado spoke before thousands of followers after two weeks in hiding fearing for her “freedom and life.” She dubbed the event “the greatest civic gesture in history” and insisted González Urrutia had “swept” the presidential elections.

“They thought that, at the point of persecution against our witnesses, we were not going to get our records and in 24 hours we had the records digitized,” Machado argued. She noted that González Urrutia had won with 67% of the vote and warned that “we are not going to leave the streets.”

Machado took center stage as González Urrutia did not join Saturday’s protests. The largest demonstration outside Venezuela was in Madrid at the iconic Puerta del Sol, where opposition leaders in exile such as Leopoldo López and Antonio Ledezma supported “the epic battle” against Maduro’s regime. Marches were held in Paris, Rome, London, Brussels and other European capitals and in Colombia, main destination of Venezuelan diaspora.

The ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) also staged marches “celebrating the victory of President Nicolás Maduro in the presidential elections, rejecting fascism and defending the peace of the country.” In his speech , Maduro claimed that “we won again because peace triumphed.” Maduro blamed González Urrutia and Machado for the deaths and the “criminal violence” and “destruction” of public places, schools, and other sites. “They thought that with the influencers, from Miami, they were going to mobilize people in the streets. I tell them: They failed! Where is Edmundo González Urrutia? Come out of your cave and show your face. ”

He also challenged the opposition’s main candidate. González Urrutia said that neither “brute force” nor “hateful language” would stop a peaceful transition despite the arrest of over 2,400 demonstrators after July 28 in addition to 25 casualties.

“Despite threats and repression, Venezuelans are demanding respect for their will. Brute force and hateful language will not stop our decision to initiate a peaceful transition,” the former diplomat wrote on X. He also valued Saturday’s demonstrations. “To all Venezuelans who mobilized in every neighborhood, hamlet, and city raising their voices, I send my message and my word of encouragement. Only together are we going to achieve that the will expressed by more than 7 million people on July 28 be respected.”

 

 

 

Cat and mouse: Russia fails in secret bid to load ‘shadow’ LNG carrier

Technical capacities give West an edge in monitoring efforts to break sanctions

8 August 2024

OPINION: The West has shown that international sanctions against Russia’s new liquefied natural gas projects can work, effectively blocking the country’s LNG exports and severely reducing the Kremlin’s access to revenues to help fund its war on Ukraine.

 

 

 

 

US presidential developments crucial to Caricom, T&T

2024, 07/24

T&T has long had an inextricable link with the United States based on trade, cultural ties and diasporic connections. Developments in the race for the White House are arguably now more important than ever before, particularly based on the need to maintain the policies established by the Biden administration that have resulted in economic gains for the region and for T&T, in contrast to what we experienced under the last Trump administration.

The tone on the ground, locally and regionally, points towards a stronger affinity for Harris over Trump, and there are obvious reasons for that, the most basic being her partial Caribbean heritage.

Harris is the daughter of an Indian mother and a Jamaican father who had migrated to the US, and she has proudly spoken of her Caribbean roots since becoming the US vice president.

She aims to break a glass ceiling that the Caribbean has long achieved, having had no fewer than five female heads of government in recent memory.

Harris has been at the forefront of US-Caribbean relations, having been appointed by Biden to lead talks with Caricom heads. Her virtual meeting with Caricom leaders in May 2022 saw plans to help the region in its post-COVID economic recovery and address the climate crisis, as well as energy and civil security.

Among the commitments that regional leaders reached with her was for strong cooperation in the fight against the influx of guns from the US and for US-Caricom meetings to become an annual event. In The Bahamas for a follow-up meeting in 2023, she confirmed provision of US$28 million in food security assistance, a promise to invest US$210 million in the Blue-Green Investment Corporation over three years and additional investments of over US$35 million in the US-Caribbean Partnership to Address the Climate Crisis.

What the region now faces, therefore, is an election that can result in an expansion of these ties under a Harris presidency, or a possible reversal of them under a Trump presidency, based on the “America First” focus Trump had initiated under his previous administration that diminished the attention that the US usually gives to small states.

T&T, in particular, has a strong interest in the results of the November US election as it relates to our energy future. The easing of restrictions on Venezuela and the consequential licences to pursue the Dragon Field gas agreement are less likely to continue under a Trump presidency. Trump reversed former president Obama’s ease of sanctions against Cuba and is likely to do the same with Venezuela, with whom the US has long had strained relations.

If T&T were to lose the Dragon Field agreement based on Trump’s foreign policy, it would be a severe blow to our prospects of regaining significant energy revenues through the processing and sale of liquefied natural gas. TT is basing much of its energy projections on this development.       –  Therefore, its eggs, proverbially, are in the Democrats’ basket.

75 years of the modern Commonwealth: Foreign Secretary’s speech  David Lammy hosted a reception marking 75 years of the modern Commonwealth and looked ahead to this year’s Commonwealth summit in Samoa.

 

 

 

Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office and The Rt Hon David Lammy MP

6 September 2024

Well your Excellencies, guests, friends, It’s wonderful, really quite wonderful to host so many remarkable people here today. Together, you tell a wonderful, modern, diverse story about our Commonwealth.

A network which connects people around the world – athletes, artists, activists, authors. An organisation which is vital to tackling the challenges before us today. A family which I am very, very proud to call my own. This is personally a very special moment for me as Foreign Secretary.

As many of you will know, my parents came to Britain from Guyana, as part of the Windrush generation. I stand before you as Foreign Secretary, tracing my lineage back to Africa through the trans-Atlantic slave trade.

So I feel the pain and anguish of that heritage, as did my parents. But I share with them a keen awareness of my Commonwealth roots, a sense of belonging and solidarity with all members of the Commonwealth diaspora and the powerful optimism for what a multicultural society can be.

This spirit drives me as Foreign Secretary, as I seek to reconnect Britain with the world. A task in which I believe a revived, reinvigorated Commonwealth has a significant role to play. This belief reflects the fact that the world has changed radically in 75 years since the Commonwealth was born. There have been 3 phases to our organisation’s history:

1. 1. 1. an imperial phase under His Majesty George VI
      2. a post-colonial phase under Her Majesty Elizabeth II
      3. and now, under His Majesty Charles III, we have entered a new multipolar phase

This mirrors changes in the wider world. We are now well and truly in a multipolar age. And we face global challenges which can only be overcome if we all – the Global North and the Global South – focus on tackling them together. The Commonwealth must show how we can contribute then to achieving that unity of purpose.

In doing so, we benefit from an array of legacies. Like that of my dear friend Baroness Scotland, who has overseen the establishment of the Climate Finance Hub and the Blue Charter, the growth in our membership, and ensured the Commonwealth’s voice is heard at the top tables of diplomacy across the world.

And that of the late, great Guyanese Secretary-General, Sir ‘Sonny’ Ramphal, Who embedded the Commonwealth’s reputation as a unique platform for taking action on global challenges, giving a voice to small states,helping to forge closer, more equitable, relations between the Global North and the Global South.

Next month, we will select our new Secretary-General. Africa is central to the world’s future – demographically, economically, and of course geopolitically. So I am excited that our next Secretary-General will hail from one of our African members. And I look forward to working with them to build on their predecessors’ efforts.

Of course, we are also building on the enormous legacy of Her late Majesty The Queen. Two years since her passing, we treasure her role in cementing ties between us. The warmth and affection in which she is held across the Commonwealth testifies, both to her skills as a diplomat – she was, quite simply, the greatest diplomat of our time and to her vision for how to do diplomacy – a vision, frankly, far ahead of its time. A vision of leaders in the Global North and Global South working together, in a spirit of partnership.

A vision that the Commonwealth exemplifies, as a forum in which voices from all corners of the globe – one third of the world’s population – are heard and respected.

His Majesty the King, as Head of the Commonwealth, has been clear that he shares the vision of a family of nations in tackling the challenges of our time, strengthened by sharing diverse perspectives and experiences. And it is a vision embraced by the new British Government as well.

This government will only succeed in reconnecting Britain with the world on the basis of mutual respect. And so it is natural for us to want to seize the opportunities the Commonwealth offers, particularly with leaders gathering in Samoa in October.

Friends, at that meeting, I believe passionately that leaders should come together, listen to one another, engage in a spirit of respect. But it is also vital that we:

1. 1. 1. focus on the existential challenges we share
      2. focus on the actions which can make the biggest difference
      3. focus on how we maximise the Commonwealth’s enormous potential

I set just 3 priority areas. The first of these is supporting economic growth. The Commonwealth’s combined GDP is expected to reach nineteen-and-a-half trillion dollars by the end of 2027 – nearly double what it was ten years before. We should take advantage of that, focusing more on increasing investment flows.

In Samoa, with other members, I will launch a comprehensive plan of action to pool our shared expertise, boost investment opportunities, and harness new technologies for all over the next 2 years. Growth must be shared. Growth must be sustainable. And we must deliver it together.

The next area is tackling the climate emergency. There is no long-term geopolitical stability without climate stability. And there can be no climate stability without a common sense of purpose coordinated action in the Global North and Global South. I want the Commonwealth to play a clearer, more powerful role in building a green and sustainable future.

In Samoa, we must further raise our ambitions for the Climate Finance Access Hub commit to stronger support for Small Island Developing States and step-up action to protect nature and the ocean. Climate action is essential for passing a liveable planet to future generations. And we must deliver it together.

The final area that we could focus on is education and the skills of wonderful, beautiful young people. As Member of Parliament representing an inner city constituency in London, I know what it does to young people to be told that they have no future. As someone who was fortunate enough because of that hard work of my parents, I to have the chance to study at Harvard University, I know how educational opportunities can set you on a completely different path.

In Samoa, we must support even more scholarships, places and learning via our various excellent education programmes. Sixty percent of Commonwealth citizens are not yet 30 years old. They deserve the chance to benefit from greater opportunities in life. And we must deliver this together.

Delivering together – I have tried to give a small flavour of how we can do this in Samoa. I am very grateful to the Government and people of Samoa for preparing so effectively for CHOGM and our gathering – and welcome the first such meeting in a Pacific Island Country.

In his final address as Secretary-General, Sir ‘Sonny’ Ramphal reflected on how such gatherings feel like a bit of a club. Members share a special relationship, an intimacy, with one another. And this creates a particular chemistry.

In Samoa, leaders with different points of view, facing different circumstances, will nevertheless come together, understand each other’s point of view and perspective, and agree to deliver things together.

That is what makes the Commonwealth unique. That is the vision of Her Late Majesty The Queen. The vision she championed. And that is the spirit which I engage with the Commonwealth, in Samoa and beyond.

Thank you so much for the privilege to serve.

 

 

 

 

Dominican Republic: Assessing the Implications of a retail Central Bank Digital Currency (Phase 1 and 2)

Series: High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Reports
Volume/Issue: Volume 2024: Issue 031
Language: English
Publication Date: 28 Aug 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400286605.029
ISBN: 9798400286605
ISSN: 2959-4103

The mission helped the BCRD to assess a CBDC’s potential macro-financial, legal, and financial integrity implications, and shared lessons from other countries’ CBDC and digital money projects, technology considerations, practices for stakeholder engagement, and how CBDC can increase financial inclusion, among others.

The mission advised the BCRD to continue the exploration of macro-financial implications of a CBDC, conduct the legal framework revisions should a positive decision of CBDC be taken, assess risks to financial integrity once a firmer design choice is made, and build up technology knowledge and capacity meanwhile.