High-stakes AI summit

2025, 02/10
SYLVIE CORBET and AAMER MADHANI, PARIS (AP)

Major world leaders are meeting for an AI summit in Paris, where challenging diplomatic talks are expected as tech titans fight for dominance in the fast-moving technology industry.

Heads of state, top government officials, CEOs and scientists from around 100 countries are participating in the two-day international summit . High-profile delegates include U.S. Vice President JD Vance, on his first overseas trip since taking office and Chinese Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing.

“We’re living a technology and scientific revolution we’ve rarely seen,” French President Emmanuel Macron said on national television France 2. France and Europe must seize the opportunity because AI “will enable us to live better, learn better, work better, care better and it’s up to us to put this artificial intelligence at the service of human beings.”

Vance’s debut abroad
The summit will give some European leaders a chance to meet Vance for the first time. The 40-year-old vice president spent 18 months as Ohio’s junior senator when Donald Trump picked him as his running mate.

Vance was joined by his wife Usha and their three children — Ewan, Vivek and Mirabel — for the trip to Europe. They were greeted in France by Manuel Valls, the minister for Overseas France, and the U.S. Embassy’s charge d’affaires, David McCawley.

Before the trip, Vance made it clear that he intended to use the opportunity for frank discussions with European allies.

“At the AI Summit, the main reason I’m going is actually to have some private conversations with the world leaders who are also going to be there,” Vance told Breitbart News. “I think there’s a lot that some of the leaders who are present at the AI summit could do to, frankly — bring the Russia-Ukraine conflict to a close, help us diplomatically there — and so we’re going to be focused on those meetings in France.”

Vance and Macron will have a working lunch for discussions on Ukraine and the Middle East. Vance, like the U.S. president, has questioned U.S. spending on Ukraine and the broader approach to isolating Russian President Vladimir Putin. Within six months of taking office, Trump promised to end the fighting.

Vance also addressed what he views as a concerning trend in Europe regarding free speech, a topic he raised last year at the Munich Security Conference.

“Unfortunately, you’ve seen in Europe a really significant, and I think, frankly, an evil trend towards censorship. And you hear a lot about America’s moral leadership. One of the things that America’s moral leadership is going to be about during President Trump’s term is free speech. We want people to be able to speak their minds and we believe that free and open debate is actually a good thing. Unfortunately, a lot of our European friends have gone the wrong direction there.”

Later this week, Vance will attend the Munich Security Conference again, where he may meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He plans to revisit themes he raised last year, including the need for NATO allies to take on a greater share of responsibility.

Leaders in Europe have been carefully watching Trump’s recent statements on threats to impose tariffs on the European Union, take control of Greenland and his suggestion that Palestinians clear out of Gaza once the fighting in the Israel-Hamas conflict ends — an idea that’s been flatly rejected by Arab allies.

Fostering AI advances
The summit, which gathers major players such as Google, Microsoft and OpenAI, aims at fostering AI advances in sectors like health, education, environment and culture.

A global public-private partnership named “Current AI” will be launched to support large-scale initiatives that serve the general interest.

The Paris summit “is the first time we’ll have had such a broad international discussion in one place on the future of AI,” said Linda Griffin, vice president of public policy at Mozilla. “I see it as a norm-setting moment.”

Nick Reiners, senior geotechnology analyst at Eurasia Group, noted an opportunity to shape AI governance in a new direction by “moving away from this concentration of power amongst a handful of private actors and building this public interest AI instead.”

However, it remains unclear if the United States will support such initiatives.

“There’s a lot of complicated questions to resolve” around issues like the ability to control AI systems, Nobel Prize winner Demis Hassabis, founder of Google’s DeepMind research lab, said. “But also I think even more complicated are maybe the geopolitical questions about things like regulation.”

French organizers are also expecting the summit to ignite major investment announcements in Europe, positioning the region as a viable contender in an industry increasingly shaped by a growing U.S.-China rivalry.

France plans to announce AI private investments worth a total of 109 billion euros ($113 billion) over the coming years, Macron said, presenting it as “the equivalent” of Trump’s Stargate AI data centers project.

In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun expressed opposition to any moves to restrict access to AI tools. The release of DeepSeek prompted calls in the U.S. Congress to limit its use for security reasons.

“We oppose drawing ideological lines and overstretching national security concepts and politicizing economic and trade issues.”

He said that China advocates for open-source AI technology and promotes the accessibility of AI services to share the benefits of artificial intelligence with all countries.

India’s Modi is co-hosting the summit

Modi is co-hosting the summit with Macron in an effort to involve more global actors in AI development and prevent the sector from becoming a U.S.-China battle.

India’s foreign secretary, Vikram Misri, stressed the need for equitable access to AI to avoid “perpetuating a digital divide that is already existing across the world.”

Macron will also travel with Modi to the southern French port city of Marseille to inaugurate an Indian Consulate there and visit the ITER nuclear research site.
France has become a key defense partner for India, with talks underway on New Delhi purchasing 26 Rafale fighter jets and three Scorpene submarines.

Officials in India said that discussions are at the final phase and the deal could be inked in a few weeks.

Kelvin Chan in Paris, Ken Moritsugu in Beijing, and Aijaz Hussain in New Delhi, contributed to this report.

 

 

 

 

US natural gas producers recover after DeepSeek AI fallout

Nicholas Heath /Robert Stewart
Published 28 January 2025, 10:33

Emergence of PRC contender stirred concerns over its implications for energy use associated with the proliferation of AI and data centres.

US natural gas producers were caught up in a broad selloff in US shares on Monday amid concerns that the emergence of Chinese AI contender DeepSeek could cloud the picture for electricity demand growth.

Shares in US natural gas producers recovered somewhat in trading Tuesday, a day after a sell-off triggered by concerns that the emergence of a Chinese AI contender could cloud the picture for electricity demand from data centres. Share prices of US producers including EQT and Antero Resources closed almost 10% lower on Monday following the emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup that, according to reports, outperformed major US players and at a much lower cost.

Stock of Expand Energy, the combined Chesapeake-Southwestern entity, fell more than 4% on Monday. Expand is the largest gas producer in the US at about 10 million cubic feet per day, according to data from Enverus Intelligence Research.

 

 

 

 

Shell profits nearly halve in fourth quarter

Davide Ghilotti London 29 January 2025
Published 30 January 2025, 07:23

Company confirms buyback worth another $3.5 billion and increases dividend by 4% as it posts ‘second-largest cash flow in history’ for 2024

Supermajor Shell saw a nearly 50% drop in profits in the fourth quarter of the year, as operations were affected by weaker oil, liquefied natural gas and products trading, higher taxes and exploration write-offs.

The company posted $3.66 billion in adjusted earnings — its definition of net profit — for the fourth quarter, against $7.31 billion at this time last year, marking a 49% decline year-on-year.

This stood some 11% below analyst consensus, which forecast $4.1 billion for the quarter, according to data compiled by Vara Research.

The company announced it will continue with its share buyback programme as in previous reporting periods, and has increased the dividend per ordinary share to $0.358.

Chief executive Wael Sawan said: “Today, we announce a 4% increase in our dividends and another $3.5 billion buyback programme, making this the 13th consecutive quarter of at least $3 billion of buybacks, all whilst further strengthening our balance sheet this year to position us well for the future.”

The company said earnings in the quarter were affected by lower margins from crude oil and products trading, lower liquefied natural gas trading and optimisations.

In a video message, Gorman said the quarterly performance “reflected a lower macro” and was additionally impacted by exploration well write-off costs, which increased by $283 million in the three months as well as unfavourable tax movements, worth $245 million.

Earlier this month, Shell revealed a worse-than-expected performance from its integrated gas (IG) business in the fourth quarter, informing investors that gas production and LNG volumes will be lower than the previous quarter.
This was mainly down to scheduled maintenance at the Pearl gas-to-liquids asset in Qatar.

Total production for sale came in at 905,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, 4% down against the previous quarter but slightly above this time last year.

Total upstream production stood at 1.86 million boepd in the quarter.

The supermajor has also had to fend against a material write-off of exploration costs, in particular in its deepwater licence offshore Namibia.

Shell declared its five discoveries in Petroleum Exploration Licence (PEL) 39, in Namibia’s Orange basin hotspot, as uneconomic, although it will continue to seek ways to monetise the finds.

The company said on Thursday its yearly capex for 2024 was reduced to $21.1 billion, driven by “disciplined capital allocation”.

Redburn Atlantic said in a note it sees “further scope” for the company to continue to slice away at capex, after guidance for 2024 was reduced to below the stated range of between $22 billion and $25 billion. The consultancy forecasts organic capex of $21 billion for this year, noting the company’s indication of this would “allow some small-scale M&A”.

“We expect a slight positive reaction,” commented head of European energy equity research, Joshua Stone, citing the higher than expected cash flow from operations, indication on lower spending this year and the savings already achieved.

Despite the lower earnings, the company generated $13.2 billion in cash flow from operations in the quarter, and $54.7 billion cash flow from operations for the full year, the “second-largest in our history,” as Sawan put it.

RBC’s head of energy transition research, Biraj Borkhataria said the results “showed relatively soft earnings but continued strong cash generation”.

Jefferies said in a note that the earnings miss “masks a good operational performance”.

Shares in Shell were trading at +0.4% at market open as of 0818GMT.

Before the release of the results, RBC Capital Markets noted that the Shell stock has outperformed the energy sector (SXEP) index by 9%, over the last 12 months.

 

 

 

 

Cuba

Melbana Energy to commence first phase of field development plan for Block 9 onshore

23 Jan 2025

HIGHLIGHTS

Cuba Block 9 PSC (Melbana 30% participating interest and Operator)

• • Initial development of Unit 1B on track.
  • All materials for Alameda-2 workover in country, workover on track for early February.
  • Drilling rig to mobilise to Amistad-2 location immediately thereafter.
  • Melbana  subsidiary approved as Operator in Cuba.
  • Oil offtake contract terms being finalised with an international oil trader.
  • Pre-bid seismic scouting process completed.

 

Corporate

• • $9.7 million cash available at the end of the quarter.
  • Melbana Energy announced the first phase of the development plan for Block 9, onshore Cuba.
  •  Melbana is Operator with a 30% interest. Sonangol holds the remaining 70%.

Field development

• • As announced at the AGM, the first phase of the field development plan will be a workover of the existing Alameda-2 completion within the Amistad Unit 1B reservoir followed by the drilling of a number of production wells into Unit 1B reservoir within the Amistad Structure, the first being the Amistad-2 well.
  • Using existing 2D seismic control, Amistad-2 will be drilled to the South from Pad #9 targeting the highest confidence (1C) resource of 16 million barrels(1) , in a location up-dip of Alameda-2.
  • Future 3D seismic will allow development wells to be accurately positioned to more efficiently develop and potentially extend the recoverable 2C Contingent Resource of 46 million barrels (1).
  • A pre-bid seismic scouting process was completed with contractors during the December quarter, data from which will be incorporated into the survey design.
  • The near-term goal to export a first cargo remains a priority.

 

Alameda-2 Workover

The workover of Alameda-2 is planned to commence in early February 2025. The program is designed to remediate interpreted near-well formation damage identified in the Amistad Unit-1B oil reservoir. The nature of this damage was determined by our in-house team and external experts analysing results from the original Drill Stem Test (DST) and subsequent Extended Production Testing. (2)

Key steps in the workover program include using a service rig to pull the completion, add perforation intervals in the upper and lower Unit 1B and undertake an acid wash and squeeze before re-running the completion.

Drilling additional well into Unit 1B

Preparations for the drilling of Amistad-2 are well advanced and an outline drilling program was compiled during the quarter. The drilling program incorporates all lessons learned to date in order to maximise the well’s flow potential. Amistad-2 is to be drilled from Pad #9 in a southerly direction, along the existing 2D seismic line, and is designed to intersect the entire Unit-1B pay interval and numerous interpreted fracture sets. The surface location is approximately 800m from and 200m updip to the successful Alameda-2 well.

Following the observation of formation damage during extended production testing of Alameda-2, and subsequent likely formation damage in Alameda-3, the Company decided to investigate alternate drilling fluid systems. Preliminary investigations led Melbana to develop a Reservoir Drilling Fluid (RDF) for the Alameda field.

The use of RDF is relatively common for formations susceptible to drilling induced damage. Melbana’s RDF is a water-based drilling fluid that is designed to minimise the risk of formation damage, whilst maintaining the ability to safely and effectively drill the well.

During the quarter, scanning electron microscope images of Alameda-3 core samples were received, providing direct indications of formation damage including barite embedment and crystalline precipitates within pores and fractures of core plugs. This information was incorporated into the extensive chemical analysis and final design of the RDF and associated fluid and rock compatibility testing, which confirms its suitability for the Unit-1B reservoir.

Given the dedicated Unit-1B target for Amistad-2, it has been possible to significantly simplify the well design. As such, it is expected that the well will be completed open-hole, with 7” slotted liner available as a contingency, an application which works well with the proposed RDF. The completion tubing will then be run before a pre-production acid-wash being circulated and the well then brought immediately into production without the need to kill the well.

Drilling is planned to commence immediately after the workover of Alameda-2.

Commercialisation

A significant component of Melbana’s commercialisation plans were realised when Melbana’s subsidiary was approved as an operator in Cuba. Melbana’s engineering and commercial teams continue to progress plans for the export of oil produced from Block 9. The preferred plan is to truck crude to receiving pits connected to oil storage tanks at the nearby oil storage terminal before export from the port. Crude exports are expected to continue to be pursued to underpin the Company’s long-term ambitions for the project. The Company continued its discussions with several potential new partners and credit providers who have demonstrated interest in participating in the development of Block 9.

Source: Melbana Energy

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rubio ratifies US recognition of Urrutia as Venezuela’s true President

January 23rd 2025

Rubio reaffirmed the United States’ support for the restoration of democracy in Venezuela

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Venezuelan opposition leaders that the Donald Trump administration would hold Edmundo González Urrutia as the truthful President of Venezuela, following the controversial July 28, 2024, elections Nicolás Maduro claimed to have won, based only on a declaration from the National Electoral Council (CNE), later upheld by the Supreme Court, both of which are under the control of the Chavista regime.

Rubio spoke during an encounter also involving disenfranchised opposition leader María Corina Machado, who confirmed these reports on her social media accounts.

“We thank US Secretary of State Marco Rubio for the excellent conversation we held with our president-elect Edmundo González, just 24 hours after assuming his post,” Machado wrote on X. She added that the meeting with the new head of diplomacy for Donald Trump’s second administration highlighted “the importance of the Venezuelan situation and the well-being of Venezuelans and the region, for US foreign policy.”

During the meeting, both Machado and González Urrutia conveyed to Rubio “the strength and determination of Venezuelans in moving forward to achieve the freedom of the country and the return to democracy. The transition to democracy in Venezuela is crucial to regional stability and the security of our hemisphere. We know that we count on our strategic allies to achieve it.”

“The Secretary reaffirmed his admiration for the Venezuelan people and highlighted the courage and democratic spirit that made possible the undisputed triumph of June 28. He also ratified his willingness to work together in this crucial moment for our nation,” González Urrutia posted.

Maduro’s illegitimate inauguration on Jan. 10 marked a new era of the Bolivarian Maduro dictatorship which has repercussions across the continent witnessing the Venezuelan diaspora. Rubio praised the courage of the Venezuelan people in the face of the repression perpetrated by Maduro and his cronies. A declaration from the State Department read,

“The Secretary reaffirmed the support of the United States for the restoration of democracy in Venezuela, as well as the unconditional and immediate release of all political prisoners, consistent with the peaceful democratic aspirations of the Venezuelan people.”

González Urrutia has been living in exile in Spain since September while Machado remained in Venezuela in clandestine locations to avoid reprisals from the Bolivarian regime.

The 53-year-old former Florida Senator Rubio was the first member of Trump’s cabinet to be ratified by the Senate. He has served on the Senate’s Foreign Relations and Intelligence Committees. His appointment signaled Trump’s interest in the ongoing political crises in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.

 

 

 

 

 

U.S. should reconsider Chevron’s oil deal in Venezuela

Kevin Crowley, January 15, 2025
(Bloomberg) —

Donald Trump’s secretary of state-nominee Marco Rubio said the U.S. should reconsider Chevron Corp.’s sanctions waiver that allows the oil giant to operate in Venezuela.

The Biden administration “got played” in negotiations with Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro that encouraged him to hold elections in return for granting oil licenses, Rubio said during his Senate confirmation hearing. The elections turned out to be “completely fake” while Maduro “leveraged migration against us to get those concessions.

“Now they have these general licenses where companies like Chevron are actually providing billions of dollars of money into the regime’s coffers and the regime kept none of the promises that they made. So all that needs to be re-explored.”

Chevron is the only U.S. oil producer left in Venezuela and was producing about 180,000 bpd from the South American nation as of mid-2024. The Biden administration granted Chevron a wider range of production and crude sales starting in 2022, but the oil giant has said it won’t commit additional capital due to the short-term nature of its license from the U.S. Treasury. Its efforts were primarily focused on repairing wells and facilities and recouping debt owed by Venezuela’s state-owned oil company.

Chevron has consistently said it conducts business in compliance with both U.S. and Venezuelan law.

 

 

 

 

 

NFE to supply gas to Puerto Rico power plant

LNG Prime Staff January 23, 2025

US LNG player New Fortress Energy signed a long-term deal with Energiza to supply natural gas to the latter’s 478 MW combined-cycle power plant being developed in San Juan, Puerto Rico.

 

 

 

 

Trump Orders Poised to Have Profound Implications for Energy

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff | January 23, 2025

The executive orders issued by President Trump are poised to have profound implications for both the U.S. and global energy landscapes, analysts at BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, stated in a report.

“Domestically, the emphasis on increasing fossil fuel production will boost U.S. oil and gas production output, providing immediate economic benefits to the oil and gas sector by reducing regulatory barriers and streamlining permits. We expect that these orders will increase oil and gas consumption in the U.S. – domestic production becomes more readily available and potentially more cost competitive.”.

The analysts note that this intensified focus on fossil fuels poses a risk to the United States’ long-term climate objectives.

“By prioritizing fossil fuel infrastructure and rolling back restrictions, the orders may slow down the United States’ energy transition to renewable energy sources.

“Furthermore, it places barriers on wind power development, through the suspension of offshore wind leasing, representing a critical setback for the U.S. renewable energy sector.

“Offshore wind projects, which have been gaining momentum as a cornerstone of clean energy strategies, could face significant delays or cancellations. Such interruptions could impede progress towards diversifying the energy mix and meeting emissions targets, affecting both environmental outcomes and the competitiveness of the U.S. renewable energy industry.

“Additionally, uncertainty surrounding regulatory support for renewables could deter investors and developers, leading to delays or cancellations of planned projects.”

The United States’ stance may discourage other markets from pursuing or enhancing their climate goals.

“This could stall international climate negotiations and collaboration, undermining collective efforts to curb global warming and meet the United Nations’ climate targets.”

“An increase in U.S. fossil fuel exports, facilitated by expanded production capacity, could reduce fuel costs, shifting the global energy mix towards higher emissions. This could counteract the progress made by other nations in reducing their carbon footprints and transitioning to cleaner energy sources.”

“The United States’ dominant position in global energy markets, driven by increased exports, may influence energy prices and supply dynamics, increasing the availability of cheap fossil fuels, thereby increasing the attractiveness and consumption of oil and gas. This would lock in fossil fuels for many years and slow the transition to cleaner alternatives.

“Furthermore, the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement weakens international cooperation on climate action and weaken[s] climate investments through the slowing U.S. climate funding internationally.”

The executive orders’ impacts will largely depend on their implementation and potential legal challenges.

“The orders could face legal challenges, particularly if they are perceived to exceed the President’s authority or conflict with existing environmental laws and regulations.”

“Despite this, we do not expect that these orders will be overturned by the U.S. courts.”

Standard Chartered Bank Commodities Research analysts said, “we have not yet seen any major surprises in the new administration’s oil and gas policies, except perhaps the extent to which they have been framed as a central core of the entire program. We also were surprised that the pledge to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) included the phrase ‘right to the top’; we had expected a less explicit definition of the target even if the timescale for the fill is as yet undefined.

Given the lags involved (even if there were no legal challenges), we do not think relaxation of federal drilling bans will add to supply over a five-year period, and we expect any boost in shorter-cycle drilling will prove modest unless prices move higher. While we think there will be a significant increase in U.S. energy output during the administration, we expect most of the increased supply to be natural gas,” the Standard Chartered Bank analysts said in the report.

andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

 

 

 

President Trump Directive to Rename Gulf of Mexico

by Andreas Exarheas|Rigzone Staff |January 22, 2025

‘The Gulf will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping America’s future and the global economy’, Trump stated in an executive order.

U.S. President Donald Trump gave a directive to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America in an executive order issued on January 20, published on the White House website, stating:

“Within 30 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of the Interior shall, consistent with 43 U.S.C. 364 through 364f, take all appropriate actions to rename as the ‘Gulf of America’ the U.S. Continental Shelf area bounded on the northeast, north, and northwest by the States of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida and extending to the seaward boundary with Mexico and Cuba in the area formerly named as the Gulf of Mexico. The Secretary shall subsequently update the GNIS to reflect the renaming of the Gulf and remove all references to the Gulf of Mexico from the GNIS, consistent with applicable law.”

Trump noted in the order that “the area formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico has long been an integral asset to our once burgeoning nation..the Gulf was a crucial artery for America’s early trade and global commerce”.

“Its natural resources and wildlife remain central to America’s economy today. The bountiful geology of this basin has made it one of the most prodigious oil and gas regions in the world, providing roughly 14 percent of our nation’s crude-oil production and an abundance of natural gas, and consistently driving new and innovative technologies that have allowed us to tap into some of the deepest and richest oil reservoirs in the world.

“The Gulf is also home to vibrant American fisheries teeming with snapper, shrimp, grouper, stone crab, and other species, and it is recognized as one of the most productive fisheries in the world, with the second largest volume of commercial fishing landings by region in the nation, contributing millions of dollars to local American economies.

The Gulf is “a favorite destination for American tourism and recreation activities” and “a vital region for the multi billion dollar U.S. maritime industry. The Gulf will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping America’s future and the global economy.”

Global law firm Ashurst confirmed that “Trump can rename the Gulf of Mexico so that it is referred to as the Gulf of America within the United States…other countries have no obligation to follow suit/are not bound by any such change”.

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO) on January 14, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the Federal Gulf of Mexico will produce 1.82 million barrels of crude oil, including lease condensate, per day in 2025 and 1.80 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2026. In 2024, the Federal Gulf of Mexico produced 1.76 million barrels of crude oil per day, according to the EIA’s January STEO.

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) states on its website that “the Gulf continues to be the nation’s primary offshore source of oil and gas”.

andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com

 

 

 

 

 Occidental Sea of Isabella

ECO approves the name change from Gulf of Mexico to Gulf of America.

ECO here proposes changing the name of the southern section of the oceanic realm, the Caribbean Sea, to The Occidental Sea of Isabella in honour of the monarch of Spain who pioneered progress and development of occidental lands, world-class regions of economic importance.

The Occidental Sea is almost twice the size of the Gulf of Mexico, extending about 2.8 million km² (1.06 million sq. miles) and both were part of a continuous mediterranean Tethys Ocean in the Cretaceous Period, evolving 160 million to 180 million years ago.

 

 

 

 

 

Questions (and expert answers) about Trump’s first actions to transform US energy  

By Atlantic Council experts

Atlantic Council

Call it a power play. On his first day back in the White House, US President Donald Trump issued a slew of statements and executive orders affecting US energy policy.

In his inaugural address, Trump promised to declare a “national energy emergency” and use the powers of his office to bring down energy prices, fill US strategic reserves, and export US energy all over the world. The speed and scope of Trump’s directives and announcements so far indicate his emphasis on transforming US energy — including undoing many of his predecessor’s efforts to boost clean energy and curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Below, Atlantic Council experts answer seven pressing questions about Trump’s energy agenda.

1. What impact will Trump’s first-day executive orders likely have on energy?

As expected, Trump’s return to the Oval Office quickly underscored that enabling energy production is a central pillar of his mandate to manage inflation and advance US national security priorities via energy markets.

For now, Trump’s plan to “drill, baby, drill” is still in its nascency. An executive order declaring a national energy emergency sets the stage to fast-track energy permitting and infrastructure, but not before a period of study and scoping from the relevant agency authorities.

Once this period is complete, how the oil and gas sector balances a more permissive policy environment with its commitments to capital returns, which have been a dominant thread in the shale patch for the past several years, will bear significantly on the pathway to energy dominance.

As a result, it’s possible that the immediate impact of the executive order will be seen in expanded exploration rather than a boom in production.

Similarly, Trump’s decision to lift the Department of Energy’s pause on liquefied natural gas (LNG) export license approvals has been received with enthusiasm from international partners such as Japan, but it will take time to produce tangible results in the market.

The most important space to watch remains how these efforts intersect with wider foreign policy and trade initiatives yet to be solidified by the Trump administration. The widely anticipated rollout of tariffs against key US trading partners, including Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union, has been given some room to breathe (possibly until February 1), as opposed to the “day one” tariffs that were promised on the campaign trail.

The final makeup of these policies could have a strong effect on Trump’s energy agenda, from securing supply chains and growing domestic manufacturing to expanding energy exports. How the Trump administration chooses to approach sanctions against Iran, Russia, and Venezuela will also shape the global energy market.

But even with these other currently unknown factors, Trump’s first day in office made clear a commitment to maximize energy policy’s contributions to US economic and national security priorities. Trump’s initial steps toward energy dominance should be taken seriously by US partners, allies, and rivals insomuch as they intersect with the rest of the president’s agenda.

By the same token, as a president who only has four years left in the White House, the most unpredictable variables may be his patience to see a return on these policy investments and whether a doubling down is on the horizon.

—Reed Blakemore is a director with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center.

 

2. Is the US experiencing a national energy emergency? What does that mean?

The declaration of a national energy emergency, and the lengthy executive order implementing it, are a powerful statement of the Trump administration’s intentions to promote fossil energy and mineral development, as well as to punish renewable energy and climate mitigation initiatives to the maximum extent possible. It is important, however, to understand this declaration as intention not action. The process of revising or rescinding regulations will take time and be subject to legal challenge. The desire to increase investment in oil and gas production will be driven by demand and potential returns on new investment, which will in turn be challenged by the economic growth of the United States’ primary markets and threatened new tariffs.

Decisions on investment and renewable energy will be driven by state-level policy, utility economics, and consumer expectations. US foreign policy—from the expected maximum pressure sanctions on Iran, to the fate of the current licensing system for Venezuela, to the implementation of sanctions on Russia—will play an outsize role in the price formation for gasoline for US consumers.

The new administration’s expected policies have driven those prices up, not down. These are early days and only a handful of the officials responsible for developing and implementing the executive orders’ aspirations are in their seats. Headlines come fast, but change comes more slowly.

—David Goldwyn is president of Goldwyn Global Strategies, LLC, an international energy advisory consultancy, and chairman of the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center’s Energy Advisory Group.

***

This week, the Trump administration declared a national energy emergency, showcasing its emphasis on “energy dominance” as core to its domestic and foreign policy. The declaration is grounded in three assertions: that high energy prices impair national security, that US allies benefit from exports of abundant US energy, and that “Energy security is an increasingly crucial theater of global competition.” Each of these assertions is valid, although the appropriate policy implications may be in the eye of the beholder.

The Trump administration seeks to eliminate as much permitting red tape at the federal level as possible and reduce restrictions for both on- and offshore energy production. Notably, though, the administration removed most renewable energies from its official “energy” definitions, prioritizing conventional fuels such as oil and gas.

It is unclear, however, whether these specific actions will address the “emergency” at hand. The federal government has historically been able to do little to expedite permitting without legislative action from Congress. Likewise, state governments and local stakeholders retain vast powers under the US Constitution and existing laws to set their own energy agendas. While analysts may argue over whether the United States is in an energy emergency, the Trump administration’s available toolset to address one remains limited with or without an official declaration.

—Andrea Clabough is an associate at Goldwyn Global Strategies, LLC, and a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center.

3. What does Trump’s energy agenda mean for competition with China?

Trump’s legacy will likely be defined by geopolitical competition with China, with energy playing a key role. Three issues stand out: US energy exports, artificial intelligence (AI), and advanced batteries.

Trump seeks to gain geopolitical leverage by boosting oil and gas exports, enabling higher US economic growth and strengthening the energy security of key US allies and partners. Trump’s policies seem focused on raising domestic hydrocarbon production rather than curbing demand—although both steps taken in tandem would more powerfully grow exports. Nearly doubling US LNG export capacity by 2028 will complicate the already-complex relationship with China, the world’s largest LNG importer.

AI, which holds massive economic, strategic, and military potential, may prove to be the most consequential factor shaping the US-China competition. AI requires electricity-intensive data centers, but the aging US grid is strained by surging demand even as permitting red tape constrains new supply. Trump’s ability to reform transmission policy and ensure a diverse, low-cost energy mix may determine if the United States has sufficient electricity to outcompete China in AI.

Finally, advanced batteries are not only commercially important—they also have substantial (if underappreciated) military applications across unmanned systems, submarines, and electronic warfare systems. For instance, the Department of Defense recently designated Chinese battery maker CATL as a Chinese military company, possibly because of potential collaboration with the Chinese navy on lithium-ion battery-powered submarines. Trump’s energy legacy will be determined, in part, by the United States’ ability to outcompete China on advanced batteries, a technology with profound commercial and military applications.

—Joseph Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and Indo-Pacific Security Initiative; he also edits the independent China-Russia Report.

4. What are the likely implications of Trump’s orders to boost oil and gas production and end the pause on LNG terminal approvals?

Former US President Joe Biden’s halting of new export permits caused significant damage to the United States’ reputation as a reliable energy supplier. This greatly affected the planned access to gas of US allies, especially in Asia and Germany. In response, Japan sought to increase LNG imports from Qatar and other Middle Eastern producers. Gas importers look for long-term reliable supplies, and the flip-flopping of US energy policies with each election cycle projects undependability. Thus, Trump’s cancellation of this halt is not enough to restore confidence in gas buyers that future exports won’t just be halted again by a different administration.

Trump’s planned canceling of special taxes on methane and removal of layers of bureaucracy that were imposed on natural gas production will lead to increased investments in natural gas. The two main factors in inflation are government spending and energy costs (which reverberate onto the cost of every good). Increased natural gas production is essential to Trump’s plan to lower US inflation, since it will lower the price of natural gas, electricity, and almost every produced good.

—Brenda Shaffer is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center.

***

It will take some time for global energy markets to experience the effects of the energy-related executive orders Trump signed on his first day in office. The LNG industry and its investors are enthused by the directive to resume the permitting process for new LNG facilities, but because of the time lag in permitting and construction, markets won’t feel the impact for several years. The US automotive industry is most directly impacted by Trump’s decision to scrap the Environmental Protection Agency’s new tailpipe emission regulations that would have effectively imposed electric vehicle (EV) mandates on new car sales in the future. Automakers that were in the process of shifting to EVs and retiring internal combustion engine models will need to reconsider these plans in light of consumer preference since government regulations effectively mandating EV sales cannot be depended on to push demand.

Ultimately, the most influential executive orders will likely be those speeding the permitting process for pipelines, power plants, and energy transmission. We need more pipelines to bring natural gas to areas of the country experiencing growth in power demand, more power plants to convert fuel to energy, and better ways to transmit electricity across distances. More and better infrastructure will spur fuel production, help bring down prices for consumers, and power economic growth. While US oil and gas production is not likely to change dramatically this year as a result of Trump’s recent executive orders, domestic and global markets will feel the impacts in the years to come, especially if these changes are cemented through legislation. Executive orders are rescinded as easily as they are issued, and most energy and infrastructure projects take longer than a four-year presidential administration to come to fruition. If the Trump administration is truly committed to its energy agenda, it must find a way to make these regulatory policies last longer than Trump’s tenure in office.

—Ellen R. Wald is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center and the president of Transversal Consulting.

5. What should we expect from Trump on nuclear energy?

The Trump administration is likely to be bullish on nuclear energy, viewing it as a tool to unleash US energy dominance. Trump will most likely wish to compete in the global market against Russian and Chinese civil nuclear exports, and the new administration will probably wish to meet demand from like-minded countries for US nuclear energy technologies, including large light-water reactors and next generation technologies such as small modular reactors and micro reactors.

Trump has already named several nuclear energy supporters to key roles: Chris Wright, Trump’s choice for US secretary of energy, is best known for his role as chief executive officer of Liberty Energy, a natural gas company, but he has also served on the board of advanced reactor company Oklo and, in 2023, Wright signed a letter supporting nuclear energy.

Other administration picks include Wells Griffith for under secretary of energy at the Department of Energy. During Trump’s first administration, Griffith served as senior advisor to the chief executive officer of the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), where he played a role in lifting the DFC’s ban on nuclear project finance. Trump has selected former Congressman Brandon Williams to be the administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration; Williams began his career by serving in the nuclear Navy, and he introduced nuclear energy legislation during his time in Congress.

—Jennifer T. Gordon is the director for the Nuclear Energy Policy Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center.

6. What could be the domestic and global impact of the United States rolling back clean energy initiatives?

During Trump’s first two days in office, he quickly began his attack on climate policies and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Act (BIA) and Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), passed during the Biden administration. He has shifted the focus of US energy policy from renewable development to increasing oil and gas exploration, production, and export, declaring a national energy emergency. In addition to withdrawing (again) from the Paris Climate Agreement, Trump is aiming to scrap programs that advance EVs and offshore wind development.

In promoting investments in AI and recognizing the surge in demand resulting from data centers, he has indicated the need to increase electricity generation; but utilities have been looking to renewable energy with storage, as well as gas and nuclear power to meet this demand growth. The full dimensions of Trump’s efforts, and their impact on government funding, tax credits, and regulations for specific energy technology areas, will emerge in time and will no doubt be subject to many legal challenges. By executive order, he has put a pause on disbursements under both the BIA and the IRA and required federal agencies to report to the National Economic Council on priorities within ninety days.

Even these early actions send a signal to the rest of the world that the US government’s commitment to cooperation in the global clean energy transition is changing and likely weakening. Actions to impose tariffs are likely to follow and will further increase strains in relations. In November, nations agreed at the 2024 United Nations Climate Conference, also known as COP29, to boost support for developing countries in their climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. But this week, Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio put a ninety-day freeze on the disbursement of US assistance funds, which include significant support for the clean energy transition (i.e., about $1.2 billion in fiscal year 2023), not to mention for Ukraine and other strategically important nations. Even this temporary pause will open more space for China to assert leadership in responding to nations’ interest in climate and clean energy development and reduce US government support for US private industry in-country clean energy investment and trade efforts.

—Robert F. Ichord, Jr. is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center where he is authoring a policy series on power sector transformation in developing countries and supporting the Council’s work on US nuclear leadership and US national security.

***

The Trump administration’s rollback of clean energy initiatives marks a significant shift that could reshape global energy dynamics and climate action. By prioritizing fossil fuel expansion through policies like expedited drilling permits and LNG export approvals, the United States is poised to become an even more dominant oil and gas producer. While this shift may boost domestic energy production and exports, enhancing energy security—particularly for Europe—it comes at a critical juncture and could be costly to the United States’ clean technology leadership.

Pausing wind energy development, revoking EV targets, and freezing climate law funding will likely stall US progress in developing domestic clean energy supply chains and manufacturing capacity. This opens the door for China to further cement its dominance in clean technology manufacturing and critical minerals processing. The United States risks ceding ground in emerging industries such as green hydrogen, carbon capture, and advanced batteries, which are crucial for a decarbonized global economy.

While state and corporate climate initiatives may help maintain some momentum, reduced US leadership threatens to slow global decarbonization. Ultimately, the lack of coordinated federal action is likely to undermine international cooperation and technology transfer, vital for building climate resilience both at home and abroad. With extreme weather events already reaching century-high costs nationwide, the Trump administration may need to include solutions to address escalating physical risks in its toolkit to “make America great again.”

—Liliana Diaz is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center and an adjunct professor of energy, climate policy, and markets in the Americas at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

7. Can the United States under Trump continue to lead on clean energy initiatives?

US clean energy initiatives—many of them conceived with strong bipartisan support—are one avenue for US leadership as a dominant energy supplier. The US government, across many administrations, has been pioneering supply-side incentives that encourage the private sector to make investments at massive scale. We have already seen improved clean energy technology, innovations in business models and project development, and increased investment in the sector.

With regard to those tax credits that have been already implemented, the industry has designed projects to be compliant with those credits and is already moving forward—on tight timelines—on a range of advanced clean energy technologies. To reach final investment decisions on at-scale projects, the industry needs certainty and political continuity. While the president has issued an executive order (titled Unleashing American Energy) focusing on evaluating appropriations resulting from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the tax credits already implemented remain unaffected.

With the United States seeking a global leadership role in energy innovation and exports, policymakers should carefully engage with industry to improve regulatory details to unlock cost reductions, encourage further private sector investments, and strengthen global competitiveness, especially vis-à-vis fast and effectively moving actors like China. Going forward, the government’s focus should remain on safeguarding investment certainty so projects already in planning can continue to progress.

—Lee Beck is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center and SVP, Global Policy and Commercial Strategy, at HIF Global. expert answers) about Trump’s first actions to transform US energy
By Atlantic Council experts

 

 

 

 

 

Colombia

GeoPark update on proposed acquisition of Repsol assets

15 Jan 2025

GeoPark, a leading independent energy company with over 20 years of successful operations across Latin America, has announced that Repsol’s partner in SierraCol Energy Arauca LLC has exercised its preemptive rights under the terms of the LLC Agreement to acquire 25% of Repsol’s interest in SierraCol Energy Arauca LLC (‘Llanos Norte’) in Arauca Department, Colombia.

As a result of the exercise of these preemptive rights, GeoPark and Repsol have mutually agreed not to proceed with the transaction previously announced on November 29, 2024, which included Repsol’s 45% working interest in the CPO-9 block and its 25% interest in SierraCol Energy Arauca LLC.

GeoPark remains committed to pursuing disciplined growth opportunities, leveraging its proven track record and extensive operational expertise to generate long-term value for all stakeholders.

Source: GeoPark

 

 

 

New UK envoy presents credentials

18 January

JON MARK DEAN, the new UK High Commissioner to Trinidad and Tobago, presented his credentials to President Christine Kangaloo on January 16 at President’s House.

Kangaloo welcomed Dean and his wife Olga to TT and wished him the best in his new post. Dean met Minister of Foreign and Caricom Affairs Dr Amery Browne earlier in the day. Former high commissioner to TT Harriet Cross was appointed Governor of Montserrat with effect from April.

 

 

US envoy is first diplomat to receive national award

2025, 01/18

US Ambassador Candace Bond made history as the first diplomat to receive a national award.

President Christine Kangaloo presented the Hummingbird Gold in the sphere of Bilateral and Diplomatic Relations at a special National Award ceremony.

As her tour of duty came to an end, Bond said, “I’m incredibly honoured to receive this award and to be making history today. When I came here two years and two months ago, I fell in love with Trinidad and Tobago. Just the rich culture, the heritage, the resiliency and I was determined to ensure that we had a strong bilateral relationship, but I was also determined that by the time I left, I was going to be Trini to the bone, so I’ve got a while before I’m Trini to the bone, but I feel today is a great celebration of our bilateral relationship and just the relationship that I have been able to build with the people of Trinidad and Tobago.”

In late 2022, halfway into President Joe Biden’s term Bond came to Trinidad and Tobago, which had no ambassador for several years after Joseph Mondello served between October 2018 and January 2021. Prime Minister Rowley and Mondello had a tense relationship, especially over Venezuela, at a time when tensions were at an all-time high between the US and Venezuela.

Bond’s arrival brought an almost immediate thaw as she embraced the cosmopolitan culture and lifestyle.

“When I’m asked what my favourite part of the country is, I always tell everyone, it’s the people. I have to thank all of you for welcoming me so warmly and so kindly, and I’ve been able to travel not only throughout this island, but also in Tobago, and I will always carry you with me in my heart, and this is not the last time I’ll be here. I’ll be back for Carnival, for sure,” Bond said.

Foreign Minister Dr Amery Browne stressed that closeness, calling Ambassador Bond “extraordinary.” Bond’s presence brought Trinidad and Tobago and the United States closer together than ever before.

“Ambassador Bond has really brought a wealth of resources and contacts and facilitation that has benefited us across a range of sectors, particularly in national security, some of the assets and efforts that we’ve been making together, and particularly in our energy security and energy development.”

Bond listed achievements as strengthening bilateral relations and energy security initiatives like the Dragon Field licence, talks on regional stability, cultural and educational exchanges and humanitarian support, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic, fostering collaboration on critical issues of security and climate resilience.

The Hummingbird Medal may be awarded to any citizen and non-citizen, who has rendered loyal and devoted service beneficial to Trinidad and Tobago in any field of human endeavour or for gallantry or other humane action. It may be awarded posthumously, but a deceased recipient does not become a member of the Society. It may be awarded in Gold, Silver, or Bronze in accordance with the assessed level of the service rendered.

 

 

 

Clarifying misconceptions about the Panama Canal

Jan 12, 2025 Waterfalls Magazine

By Sir Ronald Sanders Antigua and Barbuda’s Ambassador to the US and the OAS.

Recent remarks by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump have drawn attention to the Panama Canal. He accused the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) of charging higher fees for U.S. ships passing through the canal compared to other nations. Mr. Trump, who is to be inaugurated for a second time as President on January 20, expressed concerns that China is effectively operating the canal. He even refused to rule out using military force to retake control of the canal, emphasizing its importance for U.S. economic security.

To be fair to the President-elect, he did not volunteer the latter statement about the use of military force; he was responding to a reporter’s question at a free-wheeling press conference as to whether he would assure the world that he would not use military or economic coercion to gain control of the Panama Canal and Greenland. He responded by saying he could not give assurances on “either of those two, but I can say this, we need them for economic security.”

The human sacrifice behind the Panama Canal

The story of the Panama Canal is not only one of significant financial investment and engineering skill by the U.S.; it is also one of human sacrifice by West Indians. Between 1904 and 1914, the canal was constructed by approximately 200,000 West Indian workers who faced gruelling conditions and significant risks. Research reveals that, in relation to Barbados alone, 5,893 workers perished, succumbing to disease, landslides, explosions, and machinery accidents. By comparison, 350 U.S. nationals died.

The historical context

In 1903, the United States signed a treaty with a nascent Panama, granting the U.S. perpetual control over a 10-mile-wide canal zone. While this agreement enabled the construction of the canal, it was negotiated under circumstances of Panama’s limited bargaining power. Over time, Panamanians increasingly viewed U.S. control as an impediment to their sovereignty.

However, the United States did invest significantly in the canal’s construction between 1904 and 1914. The total cost of the project was approximately $375 million, which included the purchase of the assets of a French company that had previously failed to build the canal.

During the 89 years that the U.S. operated the canal, it generated substantial revenue from tolls charged to ships passing through. However, the primary goal of the canal was to provide a strategic and economic advantage by shortening shipping routes between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, not only for trade but also for the U.S. military. Therefore, the strategic and economic benefits of the canal to the U.S were immense.

The mid-20th century saw growing agitation for change in Panama, leading twice to amendments to the original treaty and granting some concessions to Panama, but not to any alteration of the fundamental structures of U.S. control. Violent protests by Panamanians, especially students, in the 1960s, together with the rise of independent nations advocating for fair treatment around the world, paved the way for the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Treaties. Under these treaties, the U.S. committed to gradually transfer control of the canal to Panama. By December 31, 1999, Panama assumed full authority, with the obligation to maintain the canal’s neutrality and to ensure fair access for all nations. That is an obligation that the PCA unequivocally states it upholds.

The Canal today

Since the transfer of control, no country or company using the canal has officially complained about discriminatory fees or non-compliance with international law. The canal’s revenue funds its operations, maintenance, and expansions, without external financial dependency on the Treasury of any other nation.

The PCA has categorically denied the suggestion by the President-elect that it charges U.S. ships higher fees, emphasizing its commitment to neutrality. Similarly, it stated that concerns about China “controlling” the canal are unfounded. The Authority points out that while Chinese companies manage ports near the canal and have invested in Panamanian infrastructure, the canal itself remains under the full authority of the PCA.

Addressing misunderstandings

In any event, President-elect Trump’s concerns about the canal’s financial arrangements and Chinese influence underscore the importance of clarifying these issues. Misunderstandings can strain international relations and obscure the collaborative history between the U.S. and Panama over the canal.

For example, the suggestion that Panama is seeking a $3 billion loan from the U.S. for canal repairs is rejected by the PCA, which points to its historical record of managing its finances responsibly, using revenues and loans from the international financial market to fund projects like the canal’s expansion in 2016.

Opportunities for dialogue

The Panama Canal is a vital conduit for global trade, and its neutrality and accessibility benefit all nations, including the United States. Given that President-elect Trump has expressed concerns, his remarks highlight the need for open, respectful dialogue to address them.

Latin American and Caribbean countries, long committed to principles of mutual respect and cooperation, would undoubtedly be supportive of efforts between the U.S. and Panama to clarify misunderstandings. Having moved beyond the tenets of the Monroe Doctrine, the region’s interest is to maintain an area of peace where all forms of aggression are rejected in favour of dialogue and cooperation. The economic and social growth of each of these countries depends on upholding mutual respect and pursuing shared interests.

Looking ahead

As President-elect Trump prepares to assume office, there is an opportunity to build on the legacy of U.S.-Panama collaboration. With an open exchange of views and a commitment to clarity and respect, both nations—and the wider Americas—can reaffirm the principles of the Torrijos-Carter Treaties, ensuring that the operation and practices of the canal remain cooperative and not contentious, and that diplomacy and international order prevails.

 

 

Trump’s China focus could benefit region

2025, 01/08  Mastercard Economic Institute

T&T  Minister of Trade and Industry Paula Gopee-Scoon met People’s Republic of China Charge d’Affaires Yang Han and FCMC founder Charles Xiang Cheng during the second large-scale shipment of product such as Angostura Bitters to China in December. Angostura is expected to benefit from T&T’s enhanced trade relationship with China.

Economic policies of the United States may be a major aid or a major obstacle to trade in Latin America and the Caribbean, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI). But it could boost trade with China.

In the MEI’s Economic Outlook 2025 entitled ‘Steering through change,’ MEI analysts opined, “Countries in the region are expected to experience growth divergence in 2025 due to varying monetary and fiscal policy stances.”

The Mastercard team noted that Mexico and Central America, in particular, will face potential impacts from changes in US trade and migration policies.

“Fiscal policy will remain a key focus, with inflation serving as the primary thermometer of policy success. Latin America and the Caribbean is a truly diverse region, with countries at various stages of development and different global connections. Despite these differences, all countries in the region will face the consequences of local and global policies in 2025.”

Interesting for Trinidad and Tobago, the report said that the potential shift in focus by the US to China could largely benefit the region.

“The region could benefit from the US shift in focus towards the Chinese mainland. While Mexico will likely be part of ongoing discussions about US trade policy, the emphasis on reducing the Chinese mainland’s importance could, after some negotiations, be beneficial to Mexico and other countries in the region.

However, global exposure of the region and social pressure against fiscal adjustments could hurt growth prospects. The Chinese mainland’s economic deceleration, coupled with US policy discussions on trade and migration, could impact different countries in the region differently.

Chile and Peru are more closely connected to the Chinese mainland, while Central America and Mexico are more tied to the US. Policy changes in the US could affect Mexico and Central American countries through trade and remittances. In Mexico, changes to the judicial system may also negatively impact business confidence.”

T&T was the first English-speaking Caribbean country to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which led to an increase in exports to China and currently stands as China’s largest trade partner in the English-speaking Caribbean. T&T has consistently been hailed for its position to provide a platform for Chinese firms to access the wider North and Latin American markets.

The relationship has benefitted in rough periods before, as Chinese Ambassador to Trinidad and Tobago Fang Qiu noted that trade between China and T&T exceeded US$1 billion in both 2021 and 2022 despite adverse conditions as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

While energy products have typically been the main exchange between the countries, there has been growth in supply of non-energy products and services to the Chinese market, including cocoa, sauces (including pepper sauce), chocolates, rums, bitters, teas and other products.

Two weeks ago approximately TT$1M worth of Angostura Orange Bitters, Aromatic Bitters and various Angostura premium rums was shipped from this country to China. It was the second shipment of goods sent by Angostura after it signed a distribution agreement in July 2024 with Caribbean Commercial Management (Hangzhou) Company Ltd., a subsidiary of First Caribbean Marketing Company Ltd. (FCMC).

Angostura said over $3 million in products had been shipped to China since that deal was made.

The Mastercard report forecast further growth in that trade route, particularly as it anticipated major changes in economic policies when Donald Trump is reinstalled as US president.

“MEI expects developments on US trade policy to impact the economic outlook of most countries around the world. There has been discussion amongst the new US administration to propose increasing tariffs on imports from the Chinese mainland by 60 per cent and tariffs on the rest of the world by 10 per cent to 20 per cent. In addition to the Chinese mainland, countries most at risk are those with the largest share of goods exports heading to the US relative to their total exports. Mexico and Canada are highly dependent on the United States, but as the revision of the USMCA approaches (“new NAFTA” trade agreement), their negotiation positions differ.”

“These fresh trade risks emerge as global trade in goods is already facing headwinds from economic nationalism, supply chain reconfigurations and military conflicts. However, it is often overlooked that trade in services, where traditional tariffs do not apply, has continued to grow. This growth is driven by the rise of the digital economy and a shift in consumer preferences from goods to services, a trend that has been further reinforced by the pandemic.”

The MEI did note that there were many variables with regard to trade which could come into play.

“MEI expects that imposition of tariffs – and likely counter-tariffs – would serve as a downside to real global growth and an upside to inflation. Growth is likely to be further impacted by uncertainty that will weigh on investment until these policies become clearer. However, some impacts can be offset by greater intra-regional trade, a trend already underway, as well as by growing trade in data and in services, which can increase productivity and be deflationary. These potential benefits, however, will play out over a more extended period.”

The report also assessed the potential impact of the US’s migration policies on trade, noting that that too could shape trade relations in the region.

“While migration results in a loss of human capital, it also generates substantial remittances, which serve as a lifeline for low-and middle-income communities in developing economies. According to the World Bank, remittances surged from US$128 billion in 2000 to US$857 billion in 2023, with an estimated growth of 3 per cent in 2024 and 2025.”

Digitalisation could serve as a buffer for some challenges created by some policies that may be implemented.

“There are cross currents for 2025. On the one hand, migration is likely to slow, particularly given changes in immigration policy in the US and other developed economies. On the other hand, the continued digitalisation of the payments industry allows recipients to shift to digital and mobile channels, considerably reducing frictions and costs.”

Trinidad and Tobago should experience 2.1 per cent consumer price inflation, 2.5 per cent real consumer spending and real gross domestic product 2.7 per cent.

 

 

 

OAS Election and renewed OAS Consensus

Jan 19, 2025 Waterfalls Magazine

By Sir Ronald Sanders Antigua and Barbuda’s Ambassador to the US and the OAS.

The upcoming election for the Secretary-General of the Organization of American States (OAS) on March 10, 2025, presents an opportunity to reshape the future of the institution. The OAS has always been an organization where achieving broad consensus on contentious issues is difficult. In recent years, there has been an increasing focus on the ideological or national positions of some countries, which seek to use the OAS as a platform for advancing their own foreign policy objectives rather than bridging divides and building consensus on difficult issues.

This situation has weakened the organization’s ability to function as a unifying force in the hemisphere. The OAS needs a new vision of how best it can serve the peoples of the Americas in addressing the shared and deep challenges that confront them. While this vision must ultimately come from governments themselves, a Secretary-General who can bring a healing touch is essential to this process.

It is in this context that the 14 independent Caribbean Community (CARICOM) countries have decided to endorse Albert Ramdin, the Foreign Minister of Suriname, for the post of Secretary-General of the OAS at the election on March 10, 2025.

Given the OAS’s current challenges, CARICOM’s decision to endorse Ramdin is both timely and fitting. In supporting Minister Ramdin, CARICOM countries are not seeking a dominant position in the OAS. If he is elected, CARICOM envisions Minister Ramdin as a Secretary-General who reflects the consensus of all member states, not one who takes instructions from any single country or bloc. The Western Hemisphere is at a crossroads. Issues such as climate change, migration, economic inequality and threats to democratic governance demand coordinated and decisive action.

CARICOM’s support is rooted in the belief that, at this time, Ramdin is the candidate who possesses the most appropriate credentials for the role. This approach is consistent with CARICOM’s track record: at the last election for the post of Secretary-General, Antigua and Barbuda, along with several other CARICOM countries, nominated and supported a non-CARICOM national, Maria Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador.

She was chosen by the majority of CARICOM countries not because of her nationality or gender, but because of her unparalleled experience, knowledge, fluency in all the languages of the Organization, and her vision for the Organization’s future. While Espinosa would be an excellent candidate even today, the lack of support from her own country during the last election underscores the challenges of securing the election of a candidate despite their excellent qualifications.

Regrettably, for many governments, they either want their own chosen national candidate or a candidate who aligns with their national or ideological objectives, while the real criteria for the candidate should be knowledge of the OAS, a vision for how it can serve the collective interest of the member states and how to overcome its financial and governance challenges to make it relevant to the changing times and the peoples of the Americas.

This is why CARICOM has settled on endorsing Ramdin. He has decades of experience in diplomacy and governance, which, in this case, is bolstered by his 10-year tenure as Assistant Secretary-General of the Organization. He knows very well what the pressing challenges are facing the Western Hemisphere today. This knowledge has been enhanced by his work as Suriname’s Foreign Minister, in which he has participated fully with Foreign Ministers of the Hemisphere.

Ramdin has already made it clear that, should he be elected as Secretary-General, his key priorities would include reforming the OAS to address its financial and administrative challenges. The organization’s lack of sufficient financial support from its member states is a significant concern to all member states, including the U.S., which carries almost 50 per cent of the burden.

Without adequate funding to fulfil its mandates and deliver tangible benefits to the people of its member states, the OAS risks becoming little more than a debating forum that amplifies divisions rather than narrowing them. As the saying goes, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.” Ramdin has pledged to bring a renewed focus on securing resources, ensuring transparency in administration, and justifying expenditures.

Beyond all this, CARICOM countries, except Haiti, have been joining the OAS as active members since 1967. Haiti was a founding member in 1948. Despite this, and the fact that CARICOM countries represent 44% of the OAS membership, the Caribbean has never held the position of Secretary-General. Minister Ramdin’s election would not only correct this inequity, but it would also be a recognition of the contribution that CARICOM countries have made to strengthening and developing the OAS.

Ramdin’s candidacy has been officially endorsed by CARICOM Heads of Government during their 46th Regular Meeting in February 2024 and reaffirmed by the Council for Foreign and Community Relations (COFCOR) in May 2024. These endorsements reflect CARICOM’s united commitment to advancing strong and effective leadership within the OAS. It is a call to all member states to support a candidate who is qualified and also dedicated to the principles that underpin the organization.

The election of Ramdin would signal a commitment to equity, inclusivity, representation, and the revitalization of an institution that remains critical to the Western Hemisphere’s stability and progress.

 

 

 

IDB : T&T overcoming technology challenges

2025, 01/22

Chief information officer and general manager, technology and transformation department of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB)., Jean-Michel Baudoin addressed the launch of the IDB Emerging Technology Lab in T&T at IDB head office Port-of-Spain.

T&T, like other developing countries in the region, is stymied by foundational challenges to implementation and the usage of technology to gain advancements. Baudoin noted that while there are lots of opportunities, what is important is that developing economies like Trinidad, and the rest of the Caribbean, do not get left behind. At the IDB office in Port-of-Spain, Baudoin outlined connectivity as the first challenge.

“We talk a lot about AI and drones and everything, but the basic element is making sure that everybody has connectivity.

“Second one that I see is digital literacy … it’s very, very important that we do not leave anybody behind. So there are some people that are literate when it comes to technology and digital, but some people are not.”

Further, cybersecurity is still an issue for T&T as well as the rest of the world.

“It’s not something that is specific to the Caribbean or Trinidad. Every institution, every country is attacked by cybercriminals and the more you are moving into this digital journey, the more you get exposed.”

Fundamental to all this is having proper regulations in place.

“We need regulations, especially when it comes to AI. The problem is not whether or not regulations are going to kill innovation. The problem is the flexibility we bring to the regulations and the time that it takes to make regulations.”

These challenges are not only applicable to T&T but also other Caribbean countries and even the rest of the world.

“It’s just a question of different maturity on those things. But even in developed countries, cybersecurity is a problem. Even in developed countries like the US or in Europe, digital literacy is also a problem and cybersecurity as well. So this is not specific to Trinidad or the Caribbean, but it’s there and it’s just a question of maturity and we have to close the gap. That’s what we have to do.”

On his second visit to T&T, Baudoin gleaned some insights into this country’s digital transformation progress thus far, including at the statutory water provider, Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA) which is using data and also thinking about using big data and AI to manage water more efficiently.

In other areas he shared, “We discussed education and AI and how that can change education. Digital health as well. We talked about community engagement, so we see that technology is going to change pretty much everything.”

On how he would rate T&T in its digital transformation journey this far, Baudoin said , “it’s always difficult to rate and I don’t like to rate.”

He noted T&T’s “enthusiasm and talent” for digital transformation and use of technology.   “I’ve been here for two days so I cannot completely give you a full assessment of everything. But, again the mindset is always very important. When you have the talent, when you have the willingness as well to collaborate with other institutions like the IDB, you have all the ingredients to make that a success. Is this going to be a success? You have to come back in two years and ask me again. But at least all the ingredients are here for a successful transformation.”

In sharing details about the Tech Lab, Baudoin said it is not a funding mechanism but rather “an experiment place.”

“This is a place where we can bring people from Trinidad, the region, private sector, civil society, academia together to be able to experiment and test new technology. There is the tech lab in Trinidad, because we wanted to put a flag here but then you have access to some resources that we have in the other regional tech labs and that we have in Latin America and the Caribbean and also the Tech Lab that we have in Washington. So you have access to a pool of resources, human resources, skills, assets … so a set of knowledge that you can use to accelerate your transformation.”

Internal funding from the IDB will be used to pay for the equipment including robots, 3D printers, drones among other things. While he could not provide a cost for this,

“You cannot put a price tag behind testing an idea, making sure that it’s working properly, scaling it and financing it. What we are looking at right now is not necessarily the amount, but it’s where do we want to invest and where do we want to make a difference. I think that’s the most important things that we have here. So impact is clearly what we want to do here.”

IDB has been a long-standing ally of T&T. In March last year, Minister of Planning and Development, Pennelope Beckles and the President of the IDB Ilan Goldfajn, signed a US$90 million conditional credit line for investment projects, which include a first individual loan of US$42 million to facilitate the digital transformation of T&T by supporting the expansion and enhancement of the digital economy.

In 2022, IDB approved a US$80 million ($544 million) loan to boost the efficiency, quality, sustainability, and resilience of drinking water supply and water security.  That loan is part of a US$315 million conditional credit line for T&T’s National Water Sector Transformation Programme. The IDB noted the programme would directly benefit an estimated 1,025,000 residents (310,665 households), plus an additional 279,500 residents (84,705 households) in surrounding communities.

Approximately 16,841 business, agricultural, and industrial customers and charitable institutions in different supply areas will benefit as well.

The Tech Lab, established in 2017 as the emerging technology laboratory of the IDB Group, is a key part of the bank’s technology department. Its mission is to utilise emerging technologies to accelerate development in Latin America and the Caribbean. Tuesday’s launch marks the establishment of a digital hub for the Caribbean aimed at:

1. 1. 1. *Creating transformative solutions to promote sustainable development;
      2. *Improving access to public services;
      3. *Addressing socioeconomic and environmental challenges; and
      4. *Exploring and safely implementing innovative technologies.

About the IDB
Since its creation in 1959, the IDB has been dedicated to improving the quality of life for millions of people in its 26 borrowing member countries across Latin America and the Caribbean.

Headquartered in Washington, DC the IDB provides financial and technical support to national and sub-national governments and other entities in the region as well as conducting cutting-edge research and developing innovative solutions to address development challenges both locally and globally.

 

 

 

Grenada to host major investment forum

2025, 02/10

St. Lucia-based Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) Commission announced that Grenada will host the third edition of the Caribbean NDC Investment Forum & Marketplace on March 31 to April 2 2025.

The event is being held in collaboration with regional and international partners and will convene policymakers, private sector leaders, development agencies and investors to accelerate financing for climate action and resilience-building.

Sponsored by:

1. 1. 1. the Grenada government,
      2. the European Union Global Gateway,
      3. the Caribbean Development Bank (CDB),
      4. the OPEC Fund for International Development, the
      5. Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI), and the
      6. NDC,

the forum will be held under the theme “Investing in Climate Action for a Resilient Future,” and build on the successes of previous forums held in St. Lucia in 2018 and 2022.

“As the region works towards implementing second-generation Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, this Forum will serve as a vital platform to foster partnerships, share best practices, and mobilise financing for sustainable development,” the OECS Commission said.

Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, all six independent OECS member states,

1. 1. 1. Antigua and Barbuda,
      2. Dominica,
      3. Grenada,
      4. St. Lucia,
      5. St. Vincent and the Grenadines and
      6. St. Kitts-Nevis,

ratified the treaty, committing to ambitious emissions reduction and climate adaptation targets.

“However, achieving these targets requires significant financial and technical support, beyond the means of OECS Small Island Developing States (SIDS). The Caribbean NDC Finance Initiative (NDCFI), launched in 2017, was established to assist in bridging this gap by catalysing investments in low-carbon and resilient infrastructure.”

The NDC Investment Forum aims to recognise the successes of the NDCFI and its role in:

1. 1. 1. advancing NDC implementation,
      2. expand the NDCFI network to drive ambitious climate action and
      3. enhance financial sustainability as well as
      4. strengthen collaboration between:

1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. governments,
               2. private sector entities,
               3. Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs), and
               4. international development partners.

It is also intended to showcase:

1. Caribbean climate leadership and investment-ready projects and
2. facilitate matchmaking between project developers and potential investors as well as
3. highlight innovative, scalable projects in:
   1. 1. energy,
      2. water,
      3. infrastructure, and
      4. food production.

The organisers hope the event will also attract new partners, collaborators, and sources of finance, adding that a core component of the NDC Investment Forum is the Marketplace, which will be a hub for climate investment opportunities, providing a dynamic space for connecting buyers, sellers, and financiers of climate solutions.

It will feature investment matchmaking opportunities, coaching and capacity-building sessions, a resilient climate fair with booths, demonstrations, and exhibits as well as presentations tailored to the private sector and investors.

The Commission said that the Marketplace will be open to a diverse range of stakeholders, including regional and international private sector representatives, trade associations and financial institutions as well as development and international funding agencies, engineering and construction firms, government agencies and policymakers.

Prince Andrew, Duke of York is reported to be helping investment company Waterberg Stirling raise £8billion, making introductions in Africa, UAE, China and Bahrain on behalf of the its vice-chairman Oleg Firer, former ambassador to Russia of Grenada where he was banned from entering in 2023 on “national security grounds.”

 

 

 

Grenada earns a fortune from foreign citizens

2025, 01/24

Grenada banked nearly half a billion dollars (One EC dollar=US$0.37 cents) from the Citizenship by Investment Programme (CBI) last year, according to official figures released. China and Nigeria accounted for over 2000 of the 5,443 new citizens approved in 2024.

The government earned EC$472.9 million last year but Richard Duncan, chairman of the CBI Committee, said that less than 600 applications are expected this year because of Grenada’s decision to stop accepting Russians to the programme.

“We always like to tell people that in 2025 things will be nothing like 2024 or 2023. It will go back to pre-pandemic, pre-Ukraine war level application which is about 550 per year.”

Grenada was the only country accepting Russian applications following the start of the Ukraine-Russia war in 2021. In the initial days of the war, Grenada suspended applications from Russia, but it was soon lifted and hundreds of applications were submitted and approved.

Latest data from the CBI units show that 23 per cent of 1,252 of the approved new citizens were Chinese while 19 per cent or 1,034 were Nigerians. Among others approved were nationals from Great Britain, South Africa, Benin, Pakistan, United States, India, Vietnam, Ukraine, Turkey and Iraq.

The Ministry of Finance said that the CBI, through which foreign nationals acquire citizenship for Grenada in return for making a substantial contribution to the socio-economic development of the country, is a significant contributor to the revenue of the state.

 

 

 

US removes Indian company from restricted list

India and the United States will also collaborate on joint research for metals like lithium, titanium, gallium, and vanadium.

January 9, 2025

In what can be considered good news for India, National Security Advisor of the United States, Jake Sullivan, announced that the United States removed Indian company IREL from its restricted list. This decision will help the Modi government purchase and refine rare metals.

It marks a significant step toward implementing the India-U.S. civil nuclear agreement.