BPTT drilling to boost gas output

Sep 06 2022

The Joe Douglas Jack Up rig returned to Trinidad to begin a new round of drilling. The drilling rig arrived on 30 August 2022 at Chaguaramas. In 2016 the rig had joined the bpTT rig fleet at the Amherstia facility.

BP Trinidad and Tobago (BPTT) yesterday announced the arrival of its Joe Douglas Drill Rig which it hopes will help turn its fortunes around and lead to higher production to reverse a major fall in natural gas output

Fgures from the Ministry of Energy and Energy industries reveal in the last two years BPTT’s daily production declined by almost half, averaging now just over one billion standard cubic feet per day (bcf/d), when compared to 2019 when the figure was closer to 2 bcf/d.

The company said it was looking forward to its infill drilling programme which will include both exploration and development drilling in its Columbus Basin acreage. The rig will be proceeding to the company’s Mango Field approximately 48 kilometres from the Galeota Point off the coast of Guayaguayare.

The Mango field was a significant discovery for BPTT, with estimated recoverable reserves of over 2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. It played a crucial role in supplying gas to Atlantic LNG and BPTT hopes to extract more out of its asset.  The company will commence a drilling programme in early October upon the rig’s arrival there.

This drilling programme is key for BPTT to continue to find and develop small pools of resources within the Columbus Basin.

Claire Fitzpatrick, outgoing regional president, BPTT said, “We are excited to welcome back the Joe Douglas drilling rig to BPTT. This rig signals the resumption of our small pools (infill) drilling programme. This drilling programme is aimed at getting after smaller pools of resources in the Columbus Basin. These smaller pools are close to our existing infrastructure which means we can bring gas online quickly—this will help deliver the secure, affordable and lower carbon energy that the world needs.”

 

BP UK

Sep 09 2022

Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley met BP’s chief executive officer, Bernard Looney, at the company’s global headquarters in St James’s Square, London.  Energy Minister Stuart Young joined the meeting which included BP’s executive vice president, Gas and Low Carbon Energy, ,Anja-Isabel Dotzenrath, David Campbell incoming president, BP Trinidad and Tobago and Giselle Thompson, vice president Corporate Operations, Trinidad and Tobago.

After discussions on the progress of the Atlantic LNG, restructuring negotiations are expected to be finalised soon. Agreement will lead to three LNG trains and Train 1 is obsolete. The three remaining trains will be unitised into one company as opposed to the three companies for the four trains.    BP issued updates on its plans for future gas production, including the sanctioning of new projects.

Looney gave an assurance that Trinidad and Tobago remains an important asset in BP’s global operations and the BP team would continue working with the Government on delivering a number of initiatives that would benefit both Trinidad and Tobago and BP.  Both parties reiterated their commitment to working together to ensure the future of TT’s energy sector. Rowley suggested to BP executives that “future fabrication of platforms and other infrastructure should be done in TT.”

BpTT’s production has floundered with a precipitous fall in output from two billion standard cubic feet per day to just over one billion standard cubic feet per day.  The first phase of the drilling programme will involve development drilling of three wells in the Mango field and one well in the Savonette field. The company said if this drilling phase is successful, these gas resources will be processed through the existing Mango and Savonette production platforms and it could add production in late 2022/early 2023.

The second phase of the drilling program will include the potential for three additional wells in the Angelin field and this phase is currently progressing through the sanction process.  Following the meeting the Prime Minister travelled to The Netherlands to meet Shell which relocated its headquarters to London. It would be the third energy company the Prime Minister visited , having met Proman in both Switzerland and Germany earlier.

On January 25, Government and ALNG’s shareholders reached a heads of agreement (HoA) that will guide the company’s restructuring. The Energy Ministry said the HoA was executed by Government, BP, Shell TT Ltd and the National Gas Company (NGC). BP and Shell also welcomed the HoA, the objective of which was to restructure ALNG so shareholders would own certain percentages in the new entity, as opposed to having ownership in its four trains. In the current arrangement, Government, through NGC, has shares in trains One and Four.

While the HoA may not immediately address issues concerning Train One, a restructured ALNG could allow Government, through the NGC, to access a portion of the revenues from trains in which it currently has no shares. Train One was shut down in November 2020.

 

 

Proman pledges investment

 Proman underscored its commitment to invest US$1.1 billion in Trinidad and Tobago over the next decade. Proman CEO David Cassidy gave this commitment to Prime Minister Rowley and Energy Minister Stuart Young in Zurich Switzerland who left TT on September 2 to meet Proman, British Petroleum (BP) and Shell in Switzerland, the UK and the Netherlands respectively.

Cassidy and his team said this investment over the next decade shows the continued importance of TT to Proman’s global operations.

Energy multinational Proman, based in Wollerau in Switzerland, has methanol and fertiliser-production facilities in TT, the US and Oman. The company is expanding its operations into Mexico. Operations in TT include Proman TT and Methanol Holdings Trinidad Ltd at the Point Lisas Industrial Estate.  The company’s 1,100 employees in TT account for 67 per cent of its global employee headcount.

Part of Proman’s US$1.1 billion investment will focus on “major plant maintenance turnarounds at Point Lisas.” The investment will also “fund work on safety, reliability and greenhouse-gas-reduction initiatives.”

Proman agreed to work with the Government to pursue other energy transition initiatives and opportunities. The meeting also discussed the operations of Proman’s upstream company DeNovo and its promotion of methanol as a maritime fuel and the reduction of shipping emissions.

The meeting “explored opportunities for TT as one of the largest global methanol producers, which also boasts a safe harbour, to position itself as a major shipping refueling destination.”

 

Europe Guarantees Energy Security

Unless investments are secured, declining natural gas levels could have dire consequences for the future of the economy, warned the Prime Minister. Rowley summarised the outcome of meetings with executives from major energy companies on a tax-funded trip to the most expensive cities in Europe. He left on September 2 and first met Proman in Zurich, Switzerland and in Dusseldorf, Germany travelling with Proman CEO David Cassidy, before meeting BP in London and Shell in The Hague.

He is satisfied TT will continue to benefit further from arrangements made, claiming that such negotiations are critical to secure energy interests. Government closely monitored the global energy market and deemed it necessary to take steps, including meeting energy companies to negotiate current and future terms of engagement.

There are concerns that unless investments are made – sooner rather than later – natural gas reserves would decline severely, causing a cascade effect on the economy and the standard of living. Government is working to reverse this trend through meetings and negotiations with international energy companies.

“If we do not make the decisions .. now and the investment that has to be made now. .. by 2026, 2027, 2028 the levels of gas that would be available to Trinidad and Tobago, if no new improvements are had, will have far-reaching consequences for government revenues and.. for the quality of life for all people in Trinidad and Tobago.

“That is why a delegation … led by the Prime Minister including the Minister of Energy sat down with those who are able to make these investments and hold out to us the prospect of finding new sources, so as to maintain our production levels, our revenue levels and our standard of living. If we sit idly by and wait for something to happen in our favour, it is quite possible that certain decisions which are critical to us may not be made in our favour. It may be postponed, shelved or abandoned completely.”

During peak production years, 4.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas was produced daily, compared to current figures of 2.9 billion cubic feet. At Proman, discussions were held to possibly include TT in accessing funding for green energy and alternative energy generation and storage. Proman had full experience in project development and finance and discussions included using their services in TT. On details of arrangements with Proman, Rowley said he preferred the companies to announce the specifics of terms but was confident that TT would be in a better position on the global energy market.

“We are satisfied that we are not being left behind or left out and on the contrary we in Trinidad and Tobago are at the forefront of investments being made by this company which has these kinds of far-reaching consequences.”

Atlantic LNG was on the agenda of high-level talks the Prime Minister and Energy Minister had with global energy giants BP and Shell. Rowley said following the discussions, he is optimistic that when the terms of the arrangement are finalised soon, TT would benefit from the negotiations. As part of the restructuring, the government with stakeholders BP and Shell would seek to introduce a new shareholding arrangement where TT would own shareholding across the three trains of the four LNG plants locally.

Another key success was to better benefit from increased LNG prices in Asia and Europe. Under the Henry Hub gas pricing structure, TT is paid a certain amount while LNG was sold at higher prices elsewhere. Recent changes in the arrangement allowed TT to benefit from other prices globally…which teams led by minister Young relentlessly pursued. Arrangements were such that we were not bound only by Henry Hub but we received benefits based on references to the European price and the Asian price; so the three baskets – Asia, Europe and Henry Hub – formed the basis on which we now extract our benefits.

“That would account for some of the significant revenues that we have reported and that we will report going forward, we changed the formula by which the proceeds are portioned in energy sales, that has been a very significant, far-reaching success of this government and it has resulted in its significant revenue flows into Trinidad and Tobago.”

 

 

European diversion

Sep 12 2022

The Prime Minister defended his series of high-level energy meetings in Europe to have a seat at the decision makers’ table. He returned on 11th following overseas meetings with Proman, Shell and BP. which are significant local investors. Since the Government is not a producer of natural gas, it was critical to meet companies at their headquarters in Europe. Meetings were productive and the country is well positioned to continue its relationship with these companies. If these discussions do not happen now, then the country will be in serious trouble in a few years when current natural gas fields are used up.

“By 2026, if no new improvements are hard, there will be far-reaching consequences for Trinidad and Tobago, that is why we are working overtime.”

The country still relies heavily on its energy earnings and few people are connected to the reality of what will happen when that source of funds dries up. There is no truth to allegations by the United National Congress that part of the purpose for the trip was to sell CLICO’s methanol plant shares to Proman Germany’s plant.

 

 

SHELL UK

Sep 10 2022

Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley and Minister of Energy Stuart Young visited Shell offices in The Hague, Netherlands. The meeting was hosted by Shell’s executives Wael Sawan, Director of Integrated Gas and Renewable Energy Solutions, Cederic Cremers, Executive Vice President for LNG, Eugene Okpere, Senior Vice President and Country Chair for Shell Trinidad and Tobago and Anders Ekvall, Business Opportunity Manager. Shell is the largest shareholder in Atlantic, followed by BP.

Atlantic LNG restructuring was again discussed. The teams spoke of the imminent conclusion of the commercial restructuring of Atlantic, which was also discussed when the ministers met BP executives in London on Thursday.
The meeting also discussed future upstream developments to be undertaken by Shell, especially the Manatee project. Shell published an advisory stating plans to begin work on the Manatee project next week.

Shell’s production over the last five years, since its re-entry into the upstream market in 2016, was also in focus. Projects such as Starfish, Barracuda and Colibri resulted in an over 30 per cent increase in production during the period, with current production of approximately 850 million standard cubic feet of gas.

Rowley and Young also received presentations on Shell’s global LNG, Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) and Hydrogen business. The Shell team confirmed their continued co-operation in developing the country’s gas production and re-confirmed the company’s intention to sustain and grow competitive energy resources in Trinidad and Tobago.

As the UK mourned its queen, on the day after her death, the Prime Minister and Energy minister were holding high-level talks with Shell in The Hague, Netherlands, The imminent conclusion of the commercial restructuring of Atlantic would enable future upstream developments, especially the Manatee project, which has the potential to bring online one of the most significant gas developments in recent years.
Dr Rowley and Energy Minister Stuart Young also discussed Shell development projects in this country. Both parties acknowledged the success of their continued collaboration, which resulted in an increase in Shell’s production over the last five years, since the company re-entered the upstream market in 2016. Cooperation between Trinidad and Tobago and Shell unlocked projects such as Starfish, Barracuda and Colibri and resulted in an incease of over 30 per cent in production over the period, with current production of approximately 850 million standard cubic feet of gas – a seven-year high for Shell in TT.

The Shell team lauded the PM and Young for their continued co-operation in developing this country’s gas production and reaffirmed their intention to sustain and grow competitive energy resources in TT.

The meeting followed similar meetings Rowley and Young held with British Petroleum (BP) execs on the day the queen died. They met on that day with BP CEO Bernard Looney at BP’s headquarters when , BP updated Rowley on its plans for future gas production in TT.

 

 

USA Runaway

Prime Minister Rowley is co-chair of the US/Caribbean Energy Security Action Committee. Prime Minister Mottley is co-chair of the US/Caribbean Finance Committee.

On 14th September, Rowley attended the hearing of the US House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services on the impacts of de-risking on banking in the region, chaired by , Congresswoman Maxine Waters (D-CA). Prime Minister of Barbados, the Hon Mia Mottley gave testimony regarding the deleterious effects of the loss of correspondent banking on the region. CARICOM leaders have long urged action on this issue at the forefront of the regional agenda.

On 15th September, Rowley joined CARICOM leaders at a meeting with US Vice President, Kamala Harris in Washington, DC to discuss energy security, finance and food security, which are closely integrated. The focus was on the potential of the hydrocarbon resources in the region to be part of the solution to current global difficulties.
At the IX Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles in June, the US, CARICOM and the Dominican Republic agreed to establish three High-Level Action Committees, to develop near-term solutions to three regional challenges. Since June technical and high-level meetings have been held to formulate action plans in the areas of energy security, finance and food security.

 

 

UNC  LAMENTS  ENERGY  ATROPHY

UNC Pointe-a-Pierre MP, David Lee was not impressed that enough is being done to secure energy interests. He accused the government of failing to nurture development of the energy sector.

“After seven years, where the energy sector has not had a single year of growth and oil as well as gas production have fallen to its lowest in 19 years, this prime minister is now trying to position the TT energy sector. What has his government done in the past seven years? Zero! Lack of proper incentives for the past seven years. Failed deep and shallow bid rounds, all under this present government.”

Managing director of Petroindustrial USA, Randall Mohammed, said there are several considerations energy companies make or examine before deciding to invest in a country.

“The bottom line is, oil companies assess the world map looking for the best ways to optimise their capital and earnings. For Trinidad and Tobago, our government must sell the country as a good investment. Beyond the fiscal regime, multinationals would assess such things as ease of doing business, availability of skilled human resources, regulations and security.”

 

Energy sector on sinking sand

Comparing the energy sector to a man who built his house on sand, placing its fate on high energy prices without any sustainable work, policy or vision, Opposition MP David Lee warned that the minute high oil and gas prices linked to the war in Ukraine decreases, the entire economy and TT’s revenue stream will crumble as there are no incentives to sustain competitive production.

Addressing the United National Congress (UNC) virtual report meeting, Lee said not a single dollar in increased energy revenue was due to any policy or plan by this government, but as a result of the European war.

Government’s strategies to boost production has failed he said, pointing to the failure of to attract international players to the deep and shallow water bids or the promised Dragon Gas. In the last seven years, TT’s energy sector plunged into chaos and crisis, registering its lowest oil and gas production in 18 years, witnessing the closure of many plants at Point Lisas, including Proman, which the Prime Minister jetted off to Switzerland to meet. Lee questioned if the trip was really about selling Clico’s Methanol Holdings share to Proman.

He accused both Finance Minister Colm Imbert and Energy Minister Stuart Young of not being honest on the true state of the energy sector. They had been boasting about the millions being earned by the energy sector when government crippled the down-stream sector and the budget was facing a $2 billion deficit. TT would have been in a better position to earn billions more in revenue at this time of high oil and gas prices like other refineries around the world, had Government not shut down the Pointe-a-Pierre refinery. Lee said, as refineries around the world cash in on profits from the European war, by as much as 600 per cent, the Prime Minister must be regretting his decision to shut down the Petrotrin refinery which is earning zero per cent and was transformed into a scrap iron heap.

The refinery could have been treated as a going concern if Government wanted to get it off its books as he claimed it was returning a profit up until its last year in operation. On the other hand, the company’s replacement, Trinidad Petroleum Holdings Ltd, which recorded a $2.3 billion loss for 2019, is yet to produce financials to date. He urged Government to state the true state of affairs at TPHL..

Lee took Imbert to task for his optimism On the Spotlight on the Economy, about taking the country on the path to recovery. If the economy was this good, government would not have put the country on alert for an increase in fuel prices, there would not have been headlines about the cost-of-living crisis, that the economy was on the decline, that teachers would not have had to rest and reflect and the protective services would have received an adequate pay package.

“This is the same man who promises you growth for seven years and he has not delivered a single year of growth.”

Touching on the upcoming budget, he accused business chambers of favouring Government’s fiscal packages, but appealed to them to open their eyes, use their intelligence and properly analyse the September 26 budget.

 

Diplomats or sleuths?

Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley and Energy Minister Stuart Young attended a presentation by Proman managing director marketing, logistics and shipping Anita Gajadhar with Proman CEO David Cassidy, and a member of his executive team in Zurich, Switzerland on, September 5, 2022.
In an increasingly hands-on approach when engaging with key energy stakeholders from company heads to politicians, the whirlwind trip, in which Rowley met Proman in Switzerland and Germany, before meeting British Petroleum in London, is the latest in a series of efforts in energy diplomacy.

In May 2019, the Prime Minister made a similar trip, meeting BP in London and EOG Resources and Shell in Houston, US. In March 2017, Dr Rowley convened meetings with BP Amoco, Shell, Exxon Mobil and EOG Resources in Houston.

In 2018, the Prime Minister travelled to Caracas, where he signed the Dragon gas deal with Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, in the Miraflores Palace.

Taking such a central role has been a risky strategy. He invited the population to associate him with energy prospects. Questions in relation to the outcomes of these trips have been substantial. Bid rounds have not attracted as much interest as they could have. Not enough is known about what specific outcomes have been set or achieved with the energy companies courted.

This week, Proman announced it will invest US$1.1 billion over the next decade, underlining the importance of TT to the company’s global operations but specifics have been scarce.

On Proman, the Office of the Prime Minister said, “Future projects, including proposals related to upstream gas projects and proposals related to carbon capture utilisation and storage, featured heavily at today’s talks.”

The trail leads many to wonder whether these trips amount to little more than window dressing. The outstanding plan to review the taxation regime as it relates to energy companies also looms. Some of the talks could relate to matters due to be unveiled in the upcoming budget.

It has been almost a year since Finance Minister Colm Imbert pledged to have this matter examined, as the Energy Chamber confirmed. Dr Rowley is not the first leader to court energy companies and stakeholders. His predecessor also did so and he has gone to great lengths to position his trips as shorn of unnecessary expense. Given the commitment to diversifying the economy, transitioning to greener energy with large companies to fund this process, it is also the case that the need for transparency and accountability on all of these talks is even higher. Far too much is at stake.

Switzerland was the homeland of Dr Hans Kugler, Father of Trinidad geology and other Swiss geologists who pioneered the regional oil industry. British and Dutch geologists continue to sustain the local and international petroleum industry. Europeans with long-standing substantial investments in the petrostate, surviving nationalisation and militancy of agitators and unions, do not have to prove their commitment to political interlopers and inquisitors monitoring their headquarters. Local subsidiaries are visible and citizens including staff value their contributions to the economy and welath creation Visits to expensive cities consume dwindling public funds for air travel, luxury hotels, ground transport and other essentials which can relieve domestic woes. NGC recently burnt $240 million on doomed Atlantic Train 1 and lost of $2 billion under these ministers yet the president was not sacked for using taxes as a piggy bank. The regime closed the former British refinery and destroyed thousands of jobs as murders exceed 400. Unions can be reduced to two, one for the private sector and one for public staff. Divestment of all state assets can generate revenue.

 

Prime Minister’s Statement

12 September

Ministerial interaction with oil, gas and petrochemical majors (Proman, BP &Shell) based in Europe

Proman – Zurich and Düsseldorf

Proman is heavily invested in the oil and gas sector of Trinidad and Tobago in both the upstream and downstream. Proman owns and operates 14 petrochemical plants in Trinidad producing and marketing Methanol, Ammonia, UAN, Urea and Nitric Acid and employs over 1,100 workers at its Trinidad operations. Proman has also invested in upstream gas production via its subsidiary De Novo. The Government is encouraging these investments to ensure that all small pools and stranded gas fields are exploited.

The principals of Proman, at their global corporate headquarters, met and discussed their current and future investments in Trinidad and Tobago and highlighted how these investment decisions for Trinidad and Tobago fit into the group’s expansion plans. Proman’s executive management includes Trinidad and Tobago nationals who made technical and business presentations to the Trinidad and Tobago delegation and held valuable discussions with the team in Zurich, Switzerland and Düsseldorf, Germany.

At their corporate headquarters in Zurich the executives provided an overview of the group’s global operations which are spread over 11 countries. Discussions surrounded future exploration and production of natural gas to provide feedstock for the plants in Trinidad and Tobago, new developments and investments they are making in shipping and the possibility and potential for Trinidad and Tobago in this area (using methanol to power the ships), future plans for turnarounds and decarbonisation of plants in Trinidad, opportunities for Trinidad and Tobago to access financing for new projects including new technologies and green financing in the energy sector and the possibility of alternative energy generation and storage.

The Government of Trinidad and Tobago keenly encourages these developments as important parts of our economic expansion and elements of diversification.

At Proman’s Düsseldorf offices in Germany, their executives from Zurich, Germany, Italy and Portugal made presentations focused on projects being executed at several locations globally. The presentations focused on Proman’s experience across the full value chain from Project Development and Finance, Natural Gas Production, Petrochemical Production to Marketing, Logistics and Distribution. There was discussion about the opportunity to deploy some of these resources in Trinidad and Tobago in future investments that would maintain and even expand our energy sector.

The Trinidad and Tobago Ministerial delegation had informative and satisfying discussions with Proman’s principals David and Joseph Cassidy and executives, many of whom are Trinidad and Tobago nationals (Ricardo Mohammed, Managing Director Group Operations, Anita Gajadhar, Managing Director Marketing, Logistics and Shipping, Bryan Ramsumair, Managing Director of De Novo).

BP – London

The Trinidad and Tobago delegation travelled to London to meet the BP leadership at their global headquarters at St James’s Square. BP is the largest producer of natural gas in Trinidad and Tobago and is critical to our energy sector. We met Bernard Looney, Chief Executive Officer, Anja-Isabel Dotzenrath, EVP, gas & Low carbon energy and David Campbell incoming country president of bpTT’s operations.

The discussions surrounded BP’s operations in Trinidad and Tobago, their continued investment in Trinidad and Tobago and future plans. The restructuring of Atlantic LNG was discussed as well as projects that will now be sanctioned for future gas production in Trinidad and Tobago. It was reiterated that BP remains committed to investing in Trinidad and Tobago and that it would continue to work closely with the government to deliver value for the people of Trinidad and Tobago.

As a direct result of the Government’s interventions and discussion with the highest level of the BP leadership since 2015 and in particular the negotiations since 2018 BP has invested US$7 billion in projects from (2015 – 2022) and our ongoing negotiations yielded over US$1.2 billion in value added payments to the treasury (from 2018 to date).

Importantly it was emphasised that BP should do future fabrication for its Trinidad and Tobago projects in Trinidad and Tobago and that the Government would work with BP and the local industry to make this happen.

We also discussed the current gas production challenges and plans for future gas production to sustain current levels as well as the pathways towards increased production.

Shell – The Hague

The Trinidad and Tobago delegation met Shell senior executive leadership in The Hague. In-depth discussions were facilitated with Wael Sawan, Integrated Gas, Renewables and Energy Solutions Director, Cedric Cremers, EVP LNG, Eugene Okpere, Senior Vice President and Country Chair Shell Trinidad and Tobago and other Shell Executives.

Since Shell’s return to Trinidad and Tobago with its acquisition of British Gas the Government has worked closely with Shell to ensure its investments in Trinidad and Tobago and its expansion of gas production. Shell, with growing investments in Trinidad and Tobago, is one of the leading and largest players in the global LNG industry.

The Government team was provided with an update on Shell’s current Trinidad and Tobago natural gas production which is at the highest levels it has been since they re-entered Trinidad and Tobago in 2016 at approximately 850 mmscf/d. This critical production is a direct result of the partnership between the Government and Shell and the work that we have done with them to ensure terms that deliver fair value to both Shell and the citizens of Trinidad and Tobago.

We discussed the future gas production outlook, including, Manatee which will be the largest investment in gas production in Trinidad and Tobago in a decade. Importantly we also discussed the restructuring of Atlantic LNG and agreed to a new timetable to complete this soon. The restructuring of Atlantic LNG is setting a precedent globally as this has never been done before i.e. the restructuring of LNG trains between private shareholders and a Government. It is expected that when the terms are finally agreed that Trinidad and Tobago would derive significant benefits in areas like shareholding, structure and pricing.

We also discussed the potential of Hydrogen, Carbon Capture and Storage and an overview of the Global gas markets (with an emphasis on LNG).

With respect to the exploration and production at the Soldado field the Government obtained a commitment from Shell to assist with improved seismic appraisal and interpretations of this resource.

 

Exporters portal

Sep 14

T&T Coalition of Services Industries launched The National Services Exporters Portal, The initiative, championed by the National Services Exporters Survey (NSES) 2022, is a crucial tool in the development of the services sector.  Minister of Trade Paula Gopee-Scoon said

“Together these two initiatives will contribute greatly to the overall development of the sector by alleviating some of our challenges as it relates to the collection of data in services, enhancing our ability to make data driven policy decisions, increasing competitiveness and guaranteeing a more resilient and sustainable industry. The Completion of the National Services Exporters Survey 2022 represents the second time in a three-year period that the TTCSI has been able to successfully capture the performance of Services in Trinidad and Tobago.”

TTCSI CEO Vashti Guyadeen said the portal could aid economic recovery as it can help the sector maximise its potential. Work would continue on the portal to improve and enhance opportunities for the sector.

“The services sector can play a major role in diversification efforts. The sector employed over 85% of the labour force in 2017 and contributed 58% to real GDP in 2018 but only accounted for an estimated 8% of export earnings in 2017. The services sector therefore, has significant scope for growth in terms of export generation. Developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) have made it much easier to perform services for clients anywhere in the world. However, as the data shows, T&T has not been able to maximise service exports.

“This Portal is not static, it will be continuously upgraded and fine-tuned. There is still time for firms and services providers to register on the Portal. There is still much more work to be done. In order for firms to realise the benefits, it must become the go to site for the various categories of users mentioned before. This means that we must embark on a robust marketing drive,” said Guyadeen.

Niquan Energy, Paria disasters

Niquan Energy Trinidad, Pointe-A-Pierre. File photo/Roger Jacob

Opposition MPs urged Government to publish the report on the disaster which caused closure before restarting Niquan Energy on the Heritage compound at Pointe-a-Pierre. One month after Niquan, the former World GTL plant, was sold to former government lobbyist to the US Ainsley Gill, in March 2021, an explosion caused its temporary shutdown.

The Ministry of Energy and Energy Industries and the Occupational Health Authority (OSH) were to conduct investigations. Reports indicate that the Energy Ministry granted full approval to Niquan to restart operations soon.

Couva South MP Rudy Indarsingh told the United National Congress he was deeply troubled by this report, as it was a workplace incident. From a business perspective, he was happy for operations to restart so people can get jobs and the economy a boost but any workplace incident has to follow the rule of law. An OSH Authority is empowered to investigate and give approval. He urged Labour Minister Stephen Mc Clashie to reveal the report of the agency and make it public to ensure Niquan is fit to restart operations.

Pointe-a-Pierre MP David Lee, on the same platform, recalled questioning Energy Minister Stuart Young in Parliament on April 8 about the report and making it public. Quoting from the Hansard, he read excerpts of Young’s response that the findings would not be made public, as Niquan was a private company and could not commit to divulging confidential information in the public domain.

“I want to remind Minister Young, Niquan sits on property owned by taxpayers called the Petrotrin (Heritage) compound. We own that compound. We, the citizens of TT, own that compound, and if anything were to happen on that compound, citizens have to be aware.”

Lee said he also had a responsibility for the safety and security of his constituents, some of whom live near the plant.

“This is not a private plant. This is not private property. We, the citizens, own that property, and we must stand up for the people of Marabella, who want to know what took place in that disaster.”

Lee said there was not mention of the OSH report and also demanded it be made public before operations restart .

The two MPs also sought fair play and justice for the four drowned divers and the lone survivor of the Paria tragedy in February. Government should be ashamed of this debacle following criticism by chairman of the commission of enquiry (CoE) Jamaican jurist Jerome Lynch, KC, about underresourcing of the commission.

Indarsingh chastised Attorney General Reginald Armour, who he said tried to blame legal counsel to the CoE, Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj, SC, and the office of the President, to deflect from who was really responsible for the underresourcing. Both Maharaj and President Paula-Mae Weekes immediately confirmed that they were not responsible for resourcing the commission.

“In an unusually swift response, the Office of the President issued a release immediately, embarrassing Armour, and reminded Armour, who is a Senior Counsel, that based on the Constitution, the President simply makes appointments to the CoE on the advice of the Cabinet.

“It is this same Cabinet of which Armour is the second highest office-holder and to which Armour, most frighteningly, is legal counsel. It is a shame that Armour is the Attorney General of this country, and a Senior Counsel, yet he doesn’t know that commissions of enquiry fall under the Office of the Prime Minister Keith Rowley.”

He said any law student could have told the AG who was responsible

In 1985 a fire on SOC TRINTOC, Pointe-a-Pierre jetty killed 14 employees.

 

 

Paria Fuel Trading Co Ltd

Enquiry opens into a diving tragedy when five divers were employed by a private company hired by Paria Fuel Trading Co Ltd for maintenance work on a 30-inch pipeline at Pointe-a-Pierre on February 25. Christopher Boodram survived. Kazim Ali, Yuseph Henry, Rishi Nagassar and Fyzal Kurban died.  A moment of silence was observed for the four divers who died in the Paria tragedy at the formal opening of the commission of enquiry (CoE). Commission chairman Jerome Lynch, QC, said it was right that they should be remembered with sorrow and compassion.

“Not just them, but their families and friends who grieve for them. I would ask you to ..observe a minute of silence as a mark of respect for those men who have died and for those whose lives have been changed forever,” the Jamaican jurist asked those in attendance.

On behalf of himself and fellow commissioner subsea specialist Gregory Wilson, he expressed “our heartfelt sadness and suffering and despair caused by this loss of life. We are acutely aware these men were fathers and sons, brothers and cousins, friends and colleagues and breadwinners and confidants who provided joy to many.”

While noting that the enquiry cannot bring back Fyzal Kurban, Rishi Nagassar, Kazim Ali Jr and Yusuf Henry, he said it “can and it will provide answers to the inevitable questions of how a tragedy of this kind could occur in today’s society.”

Lynch said he was shocked.

“Such an incident in a modern country, used to dealing with the extraction of oil and gas and the maintenance of machinery necessary to effect such extraction, is both surprising and tragic in the 21st century.”

He noted that “194 days ago, four men died when something happened that caused them to be sucked into a 30-inch pipeline stretching across the seabed from berth six to berth five. The facts are undoubtedly tragic,” he said pledging to get to the truth, leaving no stone unturned to get there.

Lynch has set hearings for November 21-25, December 5-8, December 12-15, and as a contingency, January 9-13, 2023, although he said hopefully that January hearing would not be necessary.

A draft report should be completed by Easter.

A local jurist said that Government should do all within its power to ensure the necessary resources are available to the commission in order to do its work. At the procedural hearing commission chairman Jerome Lynch, QC, complained about the inquiry being hamstrung by a severe lack of basic resources to begin its work. Energy Minister Stuart Young obtained chairs and desks from the office of the Prime Minister for the commission which lacked stationery, printers, scanners and internet connectivity.

To date, the commision has received “something in the order of 40 separate statements from witnesses, over 30 separate documents resulting in over 4,000 pages of material – videos, photographs and a plethora of correspondence. We have no one to process it. There is a limit to what one lady can do.”

He said he was hopeful there would have been early legal submissions which might have affected witnesses fixing time, directions, “and all of the other things you would have expected of us that might have been achieved today.

“But that cannot be. And so, while we stand ready to do that which we are charged to do, we cannot do so without the basic tools to carry it out. So those whose responsibility it is to equip us, I ask publicly, please help us to do our job. Go the extra mile to provide us with the necessary tools to carry out this enquiry without further delay. With your help, we can get to the bottom of this tragedy in a timely order. To those who have complied with our request to provide evidence and documents in support, in a timely fashion, you have our thanks. I regret we have been unable to progress the matter beyond reading and collating. To those who await answers as to how, why, their loved ones died, and to the general public, you have our unreserved apology. This CoE has been delayed yet again. It is not fair. It is not right.”

Hearings will resume on November 21. Lynch requested a site visit on November 22 to see the hyperbaric chamber the five divers were in when four of them died. Attorney for Paria and Heritage Gilbert Peterson, SC, said he would make the arrangements, but told Lynch the hyperbaric chamber was 60 feet underwater on the seabed. Lynch said,

“In response to that terrible event on February 25, the President of TT at the behest of the Government and with no small contribution from members of the public called for a commission of inquiry.

“Initially, the chairman was to be the very experienced retired judge Dennis Morrison, QC. He had to withdraw creating something of a hiatus and consequent delay in getting the inquiry up and running. We’ve lost four months. I regret to say, that delay has been compounded. I was appointed by the President to take over on July 6 of this year. Let me say something please about the timing of this inquiry. This commission, as with all such commissions, requires staff and facilities to carry out its work. I made clear at a short press conference on July 7 that I, nay, we would do all we could to expedite the matter whilst at the same time ensuring thoroughness.

“Sadly, apart from the stalwart secretary Ms Sarah Sinanan who sits in front of us, you’ve had no administrative support until Monday of this week, the 5th of Sept when we were joined by our new manager Mr Russel Seebaran, together with some IT and tech support The office structure at SAPA which was determined to be the place where we would have our offices, were only completed on Friday the 26th of August – but for the considerable efforts of Mr Noel Garcia and his staff at Udecott, we would still have an empty shell. It’s no part of my responsibility or any of us here to blame anyone for this rather slow provision of the basics to carry out our work and I know that Minister Stuart Young, MP, has been doing all he can to push this along.

Happily, as a consequence, he plundered the offices of the offices of the Prime Minister in order to provide us with some chairs and desks and the basics of office furniture over the last weekend. I do not know if the honourable Keith Rowley is now sitting on the floor as a result of having his offices plundered, but the fact is we got somewhere to sit which makes up for it in some way. I await with some considerable concern for pens to write with, paper to write on, printers to print on, scanners to scan with, the internet to connect to, the upshot is is that we are falling behind and I wish to emphasise that it is not the responsibility of any of those who are sitting here on this side, that we have this slip in timing. I want to assure everyone that we will do everything we can to make up that time. And so it falls to me to tell you that whilst we are ready to do that which we are charged to do, we cannot do so without the basic tools to carry it out. To those whose responsibility it is to equip, I ask publicly, please help us do our job! Go the extra mile to provide us with the necessary tools to carry out this inquiry without further delay.

To those who await answers as to how and why their loved ones died, and to the general public, you have our unreserved apology that this inquiry has been delayed yet again. It’s not fair, it’s not right.”

The procedural hearing was held at Tower D, International Waterfront Centre, Port of Spain. Counsel to the commission, Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj, SC and attorneys Prakash Ramadhar, Kiel Taklalsingh and others representing families of the four divers who drowned while doing repair work on undersea Paria installations, attended. Young and Udecott chairman Noel Garcia tried t to ensure the inquiry could start. The judiciary and the commissioners get all of its resources from the administrative arm of the State. The line minister (Young) depends on the public service. The public and the media needed to put pressure on the government to ensure that the inquiry is held and does its workon an important issue.

Attorney General Reginald Armour, asked about the under-resourcing of the commission, referred the media to the Office of the President, which appointed the commissioners and Maharaj. The Office of the President denied any responsibility for the financing or other resourcing of any aspect of the CoE.

Maharaj, assisted by attorneys Ronnie Bissessar and Vijaya Maharaj, clarified: “In light of statements published in the media, it is my duty in the public interest to make it clear that the commissioners and/or counsel to the commission do not have any responsibility to provide the CoE with the administrative infrastructure it requires to function in order for the commission to discharge its duties and responsibilities. I wish also to inform the public that the commissioners, counsel to the commission and the secretary of the commission made all the relevant applicants to the State for the commission to obtain the requisite administrative infrastructure for the commission to discharge its responsibilities. The chairman of the commission at the procedural hearing yesterday made it clear that the commission, notwithstanding the time lost by the delay, intends to complete the evidential hearing of the commission by the month of December 2022 or for the latest, by early January 2023. This would be a record time for the completion of the evidential hearings by any CoE in Trinidad and Tobago.”

 

 

MISMANAGEMENT OF RESOURCES

Sep 18 2022 Mariano Browne

The Prime Minister and Cabinet are the management team responsible for selecting and coordinating economic policies for sustainable growth. To ensure prosperity, they must seek new opportunities and deploy resources to promote an enabling environment and engender confidence in the private sector.

The drop in energy prices in 2014 and declining natural gas output created a difficult economic environment. Angelin and Juniper temporarily reversed the trend in wanng gas production. The Spotlight on Energy in 2018 promised a new dawn which did not materialise.. Energy majors negotiated higher contract prices which NGC passed on to the petrochemical sector while global ammonia and methanol prices were depressed. Plant closures and the pandemic hastened economic depression.

Reliance on the export of hydrocarbons and their byproducts sparked a roller coaster ride. Since independence, fiscal policy has been procyclical as government spent more when energy prices rose. When energy prices fell a depression ensued , a prolonged multi-year recession, in the 1960s, in the 1980s and in 2014. Three booms during which the government tried to do too much were followed by periods of bust.

The Prime Minister responded to critics of his recent foreign trip to visit energy partners, “Without the earnings from [oil, gas and petrochemicals], our budgetary arrangements would be extremely challenging and dire…it is in the interest of Trinidad and Tobago to ensure that the best arrangements are in place in these three areas–we have to understand that we are still heavily dependent…”

A procyclical finance strategy is not sustainable for three reasons.
1. Depending on one major staple is inherently destabilising. Market slumps or spikes are unpredictable A long-suffering public cannot withstand prolonged austerity measures without social instability. Public sector wage negotiations have been delayed, Since 2013 this happens regularly, undermining the bargaining process, creating conditions which are more susceptible to political influence rather than economics, spurring economic disparity and social inequality.

2. Economic buffers, foreign reserves and the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund (HSF) are insufficient to fund expenditure for long periods. The HSF is subject to economic volatility. and the finance minister referred to the 2021 value when markets were buoyant. Since then, central banks in major markets e responded to current inflationary conditions by raising interest rates, making financial markets more volatile and depressing the value of stocks and bonds in which the HSF is invested, diminishing its value.

3. The petroleum industry faces an uncertain future. The pivot to renewables and the increasing popularity of electronic vehicles indicate a change of direction for the energy sector internationally, reflected in new investment patterns by energy majors.

The petrostate is in a favourable position due solely to the fortuitous boost in energy prices from the post-pandemic hard start and the Ukraine conflict which added volatility to energy markets. Domestic natural gas output is 37 per cent below peak production and 25 per cent below 2018, while oil output is 72 per cent lower than peak production. Experiences suggest that the economic policy direction must be rebalanced. The public expectation is that soaring energy prices will lead to good times and more expansive government expenditure when the opposite is required. Mixed messages by the finance minister encourage this sentiment.

DIVEST, DIVEST, DIVEST STATE ASSETS NOW
The loss-making state refinery closed after a century destroying jobs. Climate activism ousted the petroleum industry from the North Sea and saboteurs vandalise infrastructure around the petroliferous Gulf of Guinea. then demand compensation from Shell for the resulting pollution of Niger Delta.

Sanctions against Iran, Russia, PRC and Venezuela limit supply, boosting hydrocarbon prices. Divestment of state assets can generate revenue from 47 wholly-owned companies;7 majority-owned companies;5 minority-owned companies ( less than fifty percent holdings);49 companies held indirectly as subsidiaries of wholly-owned companies and 17 non-operational companies at various stages of liquidation. Data on these bureaucracies are out-of-date and unreliable.

As crime esaclates with murders exceeding 400, bandits roam with impunity and VAW is rampant despite the superior security budget. The ruling party, in power for most of the 6 decades of independence, embarked on eye-catching promises of nationalisation of international companies culminating in the rapid deterioration of the economy. State assets which can be re-privatised include those in Agriculture, the main sector with potential for wealth creation. They include-

Caribbean New Media Group Limited, Caroni GREEN Limited, Clico Trust Corporation Limited, Cocoa Development Company, Community Improvement Services, East Port of Spain Development Company, Education Facilities Company, Estate Management and Business Development Company, Evolving TecKnologies and Enterprise Development Company, Export Centres Company, Export-Import Bank, First Citizens Holdings Limited , Government Human Resource Services, Government Information Services ,Human Capital Development Facilitation, InvesTT , Lake Asphalt, National Agricultural Marketing and Development, National Commission for Self-Help, National Entrepreneurship Development, National Information and Communication Technology, National Infrastructure Development, National Maintenance Training and Security, National Quarries, National Schools Dietary Services, National Training Agency, Palo Seco Agricultural Enterprises, Petrotrin, Portfolio Credit Management , Rural Development Company, Seafood Industry Development Taurus Services, CEPEP, National Gas Company, The Sports Company, Solid Waste Management Company, Vehicle Management Corporation, Tourism Development Company , Creative Industries Company, Free Zones Company, International Financial Centre Management, National Petroleum Marketing Company, Tourism Business Development , Union Estate Electricity Generation, Urban Development Corporation , Youth Training and ,Employment Partnership Programme Agricultural Development Bank , Alutrint Limited, Caribbean Airlines ExporTT, National Enterprises, National Helicopter Services, Point Lisas Industrial Port Development Corporation, Development Finance, Metal Industries Company, Mortgage Finance Company, First Citizens Bank, La Brea Industrial Development Company., National Energy Corporation, National Flour Mills, Phoenix Park Gas Processors, Telecommunications Services, Trinidad Nitrogen Company.

 

 

Flashlight on the Economy

Sep 11 2022

As the Prime Minister and Energy Minister embarked on a 9-day European mission on 2 September, the Finance Minister Colm Imbert delivered “Spotlight on the Economy” , portraying Trinidad and Tobago’s current financial position positively. Notwithstanding the unexpected shocks and financial pressures generated by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the economy experienced a broad-based recovery, confirming the country’s financial resilience. These developments were contrary to the erosion which had been projected and sounded a note of confidence. The Minister committed the Government to converting the momentum of this recovery into structural measures to cement this growth. He cautioned that the fiscal measures would perform a “balancing act” reflecting the dichotomy now looming.

First, is the recovery broad-based? Second, how is the positive financial position to be managed to address pent-up demands caused by six years of economic decline?

The positives flow from higher energy prices which served as the rising tide to lift all boats. The remarkable rise in energy prices boosted Government revenues, improved foreign exchange earnings, reversed the declining terms of trade, reduced the deficit and by increasing the size of national income, reduced the debt to GDP ratio without reducing the amount owed. The arithmetic ratios comprising the statistical measures identified have all improved.

The Central Statistical Office report on the first quarter provided a much-needed reality check. The economy declined by 4 per cent in the 1st quarter of 2022 compared with fourth quarter 2021. Natural gas production declined due to lower output from BPTT and affected output from other sectors, including petrochemicals.
Not all the petrochemical plants are open, as there is insufficient gas to allow all to operate. Oil production remained relatively steady at the low level of 60,000 barrels per day. Several industries in the energy sector recorded declines. Lower output levels were also recorded by the non-energy sector. Some positive sectoral movements were not enough to change the negative trend. Remove the improved energy prices and the underlying picture shows declining production numbers.

The latest (July 2022) Central Bank Economic Bulletin gives a mixed review, noting a decline in the unemployment rate from 6.5 per cent to 5.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2022, although signalling that labour market conditions remained “soft.” Headline inflation rate had risen from 3.8 per cent in January to 4.9 per cent in June 2022 and further increases are expected due to external factors. It also expected improvement in the level of domestic economic activity from developments in the energy sector.
Economic history clearly demonstrated that energy prices rise and fall. The current position is therefore temporary, and the country must undertake structural improvements now to have a positive impact in improving longer-term economic fortunes.

Economy recovery but caution needed

Addressing the Spotlight on the Economy, Finance Minister Colm Imbert said the economy was now enjoying a strong recovery, although he urged caution as future developments in global events could affect local revenues.

TT had survived the economic fallout of the pandemic during which in April 2020 the WTI oil price fell to zero, the Ukraine war in February 2022 and a global economic shock caused by the US Federal Reserve in June 2022 hurting emerging markets by an 18 per cent outflow.

However, Imbert jubilantly eyed current global energy prices, US$101 Brent oil, US$97 WTI and US$9.2 MMBtu (natural gas priced at Henry Hub.) He lauded vaunted prices per tonne now fetched by petrochemicals (which are made in TT) namely ammonia at US$915, plus urea at US$525 and methanol at US$345.

“Ammonia surprised everyone. It tripled in price over the last two years. Expect a steady up tick in oil and gas production but it is a lot of hard work.”

The rise in energy prices has changed the Government’s whole revenue profile to increase the energy revenues from comprising seven per cent to 45 per cent of total Government revenues.

In 2015 he had resisted advice to devalue the TT dollar to ten-to-one (per US dollar) or lose all foreign reserves. He boasted that today TT has great foreign reserves, with citizens spared from the poverty that a devaluation could bring. Government expenditure would be cut no more to protect the vulnerable. Citing about $7 billion in uncollected taxes, Imbert said the Government should be collecting “much more” tax and hoped tax collection issues would be remedied by the proposed Revenue Authority.

Imbert gave figures to suggest the economy was doing well. TT has a US$19,000 per capita GDP, exceeding Barbados and just behind Bahamas. Boasting that debt-to-GDP ratio had fallen to 72 per cent, he said, “Going down gives you the fiscal space to spend in the productive sector.”

Hailing TT’s inflation rate at five per cent, he attributed that to his refusal to introduce a sliding foreign exchange rate that could have plunged the TT dollar to 30-to-one. Saying TT would meet Moody’s rating agency in November, Imbert hoped for an improved rating.

Regarding public sector wage-talks, he said a four per cent rise for all would require back pay of $4.66 billion (including $2.43 billion for public servants) and $1 billion extra annually in wages/salaries (including $490 million to public servants). The PSA’s proposed 19 per cent pay rise would require $30.3 billion in back pay (including $15.8 billion to public servants) and $3.4 billion annually in wages/salaries (including $1.8 billion to public servants).This is not practicable, feasible or possible. He speculated the second negotiating period might cost $50 billion in back pay.

Noting a fuel subsidy of $2.6 billion currently and $2.1 billion for next year, he said the Prime Minister wanted a limit on this amount, to use the rest of such funds for other purposes.

Imbert listed the current government subsidies as WASA $2 billion, social grants $5 billion, fuel subsidy $2 billion and electricity subsidy $700 million. While Government was committed to the social grants, he wanted a discussion on the feasibility of the others. Imbert did not think the global oil price would be at US$110-120 much longer.

He praised the populace and business sector for helping the economy recover well from the pandemics. Imbert hailed entrepreneurs he met at the Agri Expo, hoping they could be supported financially. Overall, he said while banks had expected many businesses to fail, they were succeeding and so growing their revenues and paying their debts.

Imbert boasted that last month for the first time ever he had seen the Government’s overdraft in its Central Bank account at just 20 per cent, meaning 80 per cent was still available.

In recent years Government had to borrow from private banks to pay public servants salaries or had to ask the Central Bank to ease or even slightly exceed borrowing limits.

“It wasn’t easy but we managed it. We paid salaries on time. We paid our debt service. We defaulted on nothing. “We are in a position where we can safely honour any request for funds from any ministry.”

Imbert urged caution now.

“We have to be careful. This is not the time to let go. This is not the time to throw away the good work of the last seven years.”

He recalled Central Bank deputy governor Dr Dorian Noeltelling the conference no-one knows the future.

“Oil might drop to US$75. Gas night drop to US$3. The war in Ukraine might come to an end. Putin might make peace with Zelensky. You don’t know. So we can’t bank on US$100 oil and we can’t bank on US$9 gas going forward. We have to be prudent and we have to be careful.”

 

 

Central Bank Economic Bulletin

Inflation increased by 1.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2022, unemployment fell by 1.4 per cent. Citing statistics from the Central Statistical Office, Central Bank said headline inflation rose to 4.9 per cent year-on-year in June, compared to 3.8 per cent in January. Food inflation accelerated during the same period to 7.8 per cent, up from 6.6 per cent in January.

Unemployment declined to 5.1 per cent in June, down from 6.5 per cent in January.

Real GDP in the energy sector declined 5.1 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter but the non-energy sector had an uptick by 2.2 per cent. While there was a dip in the energy sector, there were noticeable signs of recovery .

“Local energy production is poised to benefit from the start-up of several upstream projects from bpTT, Shell TT EOG Resources Trinidad and Touchstone exploration. Additional impetus should come from higher commodity prices and increased demand for energy-related products.”

The non-energy sector already on the upswing, should expect to benefit from heightened business activity and consumer demand.

Despite an increase in overall expenditure, higher revenues during the first nine months of the financial year, from October 2021 to June 2022, contributed a $3 billion surplus in Government’s fiscal accounts, compared to a deficit of $7.2 billion for the same period in the 2020-2021 fiscal year.

Aggressive monetary tightening in response to surging inflation is contributing to a denting of global economic prospects. As economic activity picked up with the loosening of covid19 restrictions, reserves declined to a daily average of $2.6 billion in July this year compared to $6.6 billion in December 2021.

Central Bank suggested a need to advance structural reforms to better position the economy to penetrate export markets, as Trinidad and Tobago will continue to grapple with inflationary concerns and stronger competition worldwide.

Economist Dr Vaalmiki Arjoon noted the State must investigate the ways in which the rising cost of living has eaten into people’s ability to live, function and work in a vibrant economy. The economy needs to be supported not just by buoyant energy prices, but from the ground up.

 

Save

At the Spotlight on the Economy Dr Dorian Noel, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank advised that TT should start saving now that export prices are high, in the event of a rapid downward trend at a much earlier time than predicted.
Export prices are expected to remain high in the coming months but will gradually adjust downward as geopolitical tensions such as the Russian war and supply chain effects fade. Volatility will remain the same for another year.

“In such circumstances, it is extremely important that we as a country immediately focus on rebuilding and enhancing our economic buffers which were no doubt weakened by the pandemic and the current economic environment. Having adequate financial buffers ensures that the country has the internal capacity to absorb any further macro shocks.”

He advised that government carefully set out financial policies for the short and medium term as poor policy decisions could slow recovery and a return to sustainable growth, or may have to be revised later .

Goods and services will continue to gradually push upward to reflect market conditions, but the overall economy will benefit from the removal of restrictions which affected it over the past two years, as well as favourable export prices.

In March, oil prices spiked to levels not seen since 2008, after dipping into negative territory in 2020 at the height of the covid19 pandemic. The spike in oil and gas came out of uncertainty stemming from the war which sparked a series of sanctions on oil and gas supplied from Russia.

WTI prices hit a high of US$130/ barrel in March, mere weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine at the end of February – which was the highest prices in about 14 years. Brent crude reached a high of US$139.13, but both eventually settled at US$119.40 and US$123.21 respectively. On Friday, WTI stood at US$87.08 and Brent at US$93.25. Natural gas is also higher than predicted at US$8.89/mmbtu.

Ammonia also benefited from higher prices hitting around US$1,500/tonne, the highest prices in TT history.

Government based its 2021-2022 budget, on an oil price of US$65 a barrel and estimated its revenue for 2022 to be about TT$43.33 billion, but as fuel and petrochemical prices shot up from March, government received a windfall. In its mid-year review read Parliament in May, the Ministry of Finance estimated additional revenue at about TT$3.081 billion coming out of the higher prices. Some of that revenue was deposited in the Heritage Stabilisation Fund. The ministry also paid out arrears, VAT refunds and outstanding gratuities.

Noel explained that pre-pandemic, TT was well on its way to slowing and reversing a deficit which had been ongoing since 2016.

“In 2019, the economy was on the path to recovery, following the adverse 2014 oil price shock. Real GDP declined by 2.2 per cent. The energy sector was still operating below capacity but recovery of the non-energy sector solidified, growing by 2.2 per cent.”

Headline inflation was low at 1.1 per cent, unemployment was at 4.3 per cent, the net reserves was about US$7 billion and the repo rate stood at about five per cent. The deficit was narrowed to about 2.5 per cent of GDP and the deficit stood at about 65 per cent of GDP.

Government expanded its social security net in response to the economic fallouts at the height of covid19, which came at a great cost.

“The fiscal deficit ballooned to 11.2 per cent of GDP. Adjusted general government debt rose to around 80 per cent of GDP. Were it not for the financial buffers such as the international reserves and the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund of approximately US$13 billion, the domestic economy risked being permanently shipwrecked.”

 

 

Economy declines by 4%

Central Statistical Office (CSO) reported that the economy declined by four per cent in the first quarter of this year in the quarterly Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter 2022.

“This was due to contractions in both the energy and non-energy Industries of 1.3 per cent and 5.2 per cent respectively.”

The former recorded declines in asphalt (56.1 per cent), petroleum support services (46.7 per cent), crude oil exploration and extraction (5.2 per cent) and manufacture of petrochemicals (5.1 per cent). In the latter, there were declines in trade and repairs (excluding natural gas and petroleum distribution) – 15.2 per cent, other service activities – 10.2 per cent, construction – 9.2 per cent, electricity (excluding gas) – 3.8 per cent and textiles, clothing, leather, wood, paper and printing –5.3 per cent.

Declines in parts of the energy sector were offset by increases in other parts. These were refining (including LNG-liquefied natural gas) – 12.1 per cent, natural gas exploration and extraction – 5.5 per cent, condensate extraction – 4.5 per cent and petroleum and natural gas distribution –0.5 per cent.

The decline in areas of the non-energy sector were similarly offset by increases in other areas of the sector. These were food, beverages and tobacco product – 8.9 per cent; other manufactured products – 5.6 per cent; transport and storage – 4.2 per cent and accommodation and food services – 1.9 per cent.

 

Ramnarine: disconnect from reality

Kevin Ramnarine, past energy minister described Finance Minister Colm Imbert’s pronouncements on the state of the economy as further evidence of a major disconnect between the Government and the reality facing many thousands of people.
Shining a Spotlight on the Economy, Imbert said TT’s economy was now enjoying a strong recovery following the global fallout caused by the pandemic. The minister however urged caution as future developments in global events could affect local revenues.

Ramnarine said “It came as no surprise that the Minister sought to paint a glowing picture of the economy under his stewardship. What was presented has absolutely no resonance with the man sitting in the red band maxi. The irrefutable fact is the economy has massively declined from 2015 to 2021.”

In 2014, TT’s real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was $ 187.1 billion.

“By the end of 2021, it was $149.6 billion, that is a 20 per cent decline in GDP since 2014. I am not surprised that this was not a talking point at the Spotlight event.”

Referring to comments Imbert made with respect to energy, Ramnarine said, “It is also interesting that with all the buoyant oil, natural gas and ammonia prices that the country is realising, that our oil and gas revenue in 2022 will not get back to 2015 levels.”

He opined that the answer to this question will present an irrefutable fact.

“Natural gas production, the heart beat of the TT economy, is at a 19-year low. This has compromised our revenue and means that we will not capitalise on the high prices in 2022. We must remember that high prices don’t last forever. It is noteworthy that with all the excess revenue in 2022 we are still in a deficit of two billion. The core issue is the production of natural gas and oil.”

Ramnarine said data from the Central Statistical Office suggests that the economy contracted in 2021 by one per cent. Other countries in the world, as captured by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) databases at the time, showed growth.

“This contraction in 2021 says something is structurally wrong with the TT economy.

 

 

Kamla rejects Colm forum

At the Spotlight on the Economy by the Finance Ministry, Imbert said the economy was now enjoying a strong recovery but he urged caution as future developments in global events could affect local revenues. Opposition Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar categorically rejected the Minister Colm Imbert’s view about the economy making a strong recovery. She described the event as a brazen act of political propaganda that would have made North Korean president Kim Jong Un “blush with embarrassment.”

She reiterated UNC claims about the Prime Minister being an autocratic leader who is completely disconnected from reality, unconcerned with the truth, and has no plan to move TT forward.

“Once again in what has become a running theme with this PNM government, unelected state employees were trotted out before the public and made to sing the praises of the Rowley regime under the nearby watchful gaze of Rowley himself.”

Persad-Bissessar claimed no independent economists or analysts were present to give their perspectives.

“Nor were ordinary citizens currently struggling under the weight of mass unemployment, runaway food prices, and exploding violent crime, allowed to participate. “

She claimed the event was “an act of obscurity to cover up the PNM’s blatant failures.”

Persad-Bissessar said the PNM has failed to outline a clear policy to promote economic growth, increase the ease of doing business and create an investor-friendly environment.

“The people of Trinidad and Tobago do not need to attend a fancy lunch at the Hyatt paid for by taxpayers to know the truth about the harsh economic reality they are living in.”

That reality is felt by ordinary people when they buy their groceries, travel to work, fill

their cars with gasoline and wonder how they can afford to buy school books and uniforms for their children.

She claimed Imbert uses the same litany of excuses to justify the state of the economy.

“Blame Kamla, blame covid, blame Putin.”

She said Imbert tries to keep people focused on “countries worse off than us rather than the countries moving ahead of us.”

Persad-Bissessar reiterated the UNC’s call for Dr Rowley to immediately call a general election and the UNC’s promise that it can lead TT forward.

“Once again, it has been made painfully clear that this Rowley-led regime is incapable of managing our nation’s affairs, and must do the right thing and step aside, and allow a leader and team with the vision and capability to take our country forward.”

UNC: no people-centred budget

Warning families in the middle and lower income brackets, not to expect any relief from the 2022/2023 budget, the UNC says claims of an improving economy will not be reflected in Finance Minister Colm Imbert’s budget, to be read in Parliament on September 26.

The Opposition insisted that the Spotlight on the Economy forum staged by the Ministry of Finance, was nothing short of PR and gimmickry by the Government. At the Office of the Leader, shadow finance minister and Oropouche West MP Davendranath Tancoo and Opposition Senator Taharqa Obika told media that the forum was “a pappyshow.”

Tancoo said this minister “continues to gloss over the true state of the economy,” by basing the economic uptick on the recent windfall largely caused by the tripling of ammonia, urea and methanol global prices. If they don’t have a plan, then say so. All of his celebration at the spotlight was premised on this temporary windfall. The increased revenue was a result of world price hikes and had nothing to do with increased production. It had nothing to do with ease of doing business. It had nothing to do with any policy action by this government. More than that, this windfall is not sustainable.”

“Imbert clutched this windfall like a drowning man clutching a piece of straw. He is trying to convince the population that this was as a result of fiscal management, fiscal credibility (by government) when this is obviously not true. The PNM government has failed to present any plan to transform the economy away from over reliance on the dwindling and dying energy industry or in addressing any of the underlying issues of the economy.”

Tancoo said the Opposition, like many people in society, just isn’t convinced that Imbert’s “continuous references to financial resilience” can be seen as a sign of hope for citizens. He expects the government to provide no incentives to ease the burden of ever-rising food and gas prices, especially in the new fiscal year. All one could do was hope the Government will inject resources into job creation, enterprise development, national security, education and health. He accused Imbert of “cherry-picking” data to explain why the country experienced sustained economic regression for seven years.

“The government has been blaming Kamla, covid19, and Russia in an attempt to distract people from the fact that they have been spending $153 million daily, for the past seven years, yet every single sector has gotten worse.”

The government’s inability to maintain its debt obligations, lower the unemployment rate and manage resources are all signs of an impending economic depression.

“The robust growth that the minister boasts about is heavily premised on higher prices in the energy sector, which is still the primary driver of this economy. But what will happen when prices revert to normal levels? Ironically, while the minister was stretching backward to pat himself on his back, he admitted that what was helping the economy was higher ammonia, urea and methanol prices, over the last two years which allowed for a short-term windfall. This had nothing at all to do with anything Imbert and his government did.”

 

UWI don highlights Cost of living crisis

5 sep

Economist Dr Vaalmiki Arjoon wonders whether a spotlight has been shone on a cost of living crisis. The University of the West Indies don questioned statements by the Prime Minister, Finance Minister Colm Imbert and other torchbearers of a “Spotlight on the economy” hosted by the ministry on September 2.

“As expected, much of our economic fundamentals at the macroeconomic level have largely improved given the surge in energy prices.With a total deficit of over $64 billion in the last six years averaging $10.7 billion annually, it is highly favourable that the deficit is narrowed to a projected $3.7 billion – the lowest fiscal deficit since 2012.”

He attributed much of this to the increase in taxes on income and profits which usually account for over 60 per cent of the state’s earnings, increasing by approximately $12 billion since 2016.

“This was not only accounted for by the petrochemical sector companies, but also the manufacturing sector, who in the last 18 months took advantage of the surge in global spending and ramped up their production to increase their export revenues.”

He said there needed to be a more efficient tax collection system.

“Naturally, with fewer tax collection and avoidance practices, these taxes would have been higher, which underscores the need for a more efficient tax collection system.”

He anticipated higher energy revenues in the coming months, partially due to the deepening energy crisis in Europe, due to the indefinite shutdown of the Nord Stream gas pipeline causing further cuts to European gas supplies.

“This will place upward pressure on the price for gas and LNG, since Europe is placing more emphasis on the use of LNG as an alternative to Russian gas. This price hike will be more apparent since winter is around the corner.”

TT would have benefitted even more from this if Atlantic LNG’s Train One was operational. While revenue streams and other macroeconomic indicators are undoubtedly better, Arjoon had a concern.

“It does not change the fact that there is a deepening cost of living crisis, more so for those in the middle to lower income brackets. While TT’s inflation rate of 4.9 per cent remains lower than in the USA (8.5 per cent) and U K(10.1 per cent), inflation is the percentage change in prices from one period to another. Prices are currently the highest they have ever been for generations. Our price index at June 2022 was 116.2 – an 11 per cent increase since 2016.”

Arjoon created a hypothetical scenario to explain this point.

“Even if inflation remains low, if a household is already paying a high cost for a basic basket of items per month, say hypothetically $2000, and inflation is, say, one per cent, then the price of that basket increases to $2020, but the price still remains high – it is the change that is small.”

The purchasing power of households is what really matters. If prices are already high, then purchasing power is low even if there is a fall in the inflation rate.

” Inflation fell marginally from 5.1 per cent in April 2022 to 4.9 per cent in June. But does not mean that prices fell – it means that prices increased but the pace of this increase was slower.”

While world food costs fell by almost 9 per cent in July, given the modest increases in grains supplied from the re-opening of Ukraine’s ports and increased seasonal availabilities from countries like Argentina and Brazil, Arjoon said, “We are yet to see any meaningful relief to households’ food expenses from a fall in food prices locally.”

He hoped that in his budget presentation on September 26. Imbert will “announce measures to soften the impact of the high cost of living, such as increased allocations to the food card and school feeding programs, cash transfers, temporary adjustment to import tax rates etc.”

Arjoon suggested a strategy to ensure that earnings continue to be healthy should energy and petrochemical prices fall in the short term, or else debt levels will increase again. This is not favourable for TT’s credit ratings.

“For our next rating’s exercise, it is highly likely that Moody’s will at the very least keep our rating at Ba2 but adjust the outlook from stable to positive, suggesting a possible upgrade by next year once revenue earnings continue to be healthy.”

Arjoon acknowledged healthy foreign exchange reserves of US$6.8 billion and some of this was from foreign loans taken and drawdowns from the HSF (Heritage and Stabilisation Fund)

“We do not spend US dollars locally, so when the state borrows in US dollars and withdraws from the HSF, these USD must be converted to TT dollars by the Central Bank for use by the state.The US dollars that are converted now forms part of the forex reserves held by the Central Bank.”

While Imbert did not mention injections into the HSF on September 2, Arjoon expected him to do so in his budget presentation

 

 

Searchlight and limelight

Sep 04 2022

The Finance Minister sought to reassure the public that the economy was resilient and had performed better than expected. Improved economic performance was due entirely to soaring energy prices and fortuitous developments that worked to the country’s advantage. With budget day three weeks away, it can be assumed that the real purpose of his optimism was to manage public expectations by speaking to the country directly and disclosing more data than could be expected in the budget presentation.

By highlighting the financial impact of the union demands in the current round of negotiations, the finance minister was sounding a note of caution and signalling the limits of the country’s capacity to absorb these demands. The challenges are great. The international outlook is one of continued volatility, inflation, and the physical challenges of climate change. The real challenge of making the country and its citizens more resilient in the face of continuing international adjustment is an ongoing work in progress.

The challenges are not all economic. Even if international prices have given the nation a respite, it was immediately clear that certain elements of civil society would not cooperate with the script. The responses were immediate if not preplanned.

With the memory of its supporters’ efforts to disrupt highway traffic and cause civil commotion fresh in our minds, the Scrap Iron Dealers motorcade demonstrated that it would not back down from its challenge to the State. Not to be outdone, the Trinidad and Tobago Teachers Union (TTUTA) will be boycotting the opening day of school as teachers ‘rest and reflect’ after two years of remote learning which have negatively affected our nation’s youth. OWTU’s Ancel Roget warned the country to expect something big. Other union leaders have already signalled that all is not well. The crime situation remains unchanged, as evidenced by the shootout at the Brix Hotel car park.

Keeping the ship of state steady will require calm heads and cool tongues to avoid adding fuel to an already combustible mix. The demands of the various claimants cannot all be satisfied by the extra revenue generated by higher energy prices. It is in effect nothing more than a windfall gain. Whilst the war in Ukraine drags on, energy prices are likely to remain buoyant. But the OECD countries are making concerted efforts to moderate energy prices, and the nation’s financial position is still fragile. A cautious approach is best.

The finance minister’s presentation provided much more information on the country’s macroeconomic position than is customary. But there were gaps. People matter, as do results. Has the poverty level risen or remained the same? What will be done to address those who are at the lower end of the economic ladder?

It is not enough to dampen expectations. More must be done to provide a context in which the country can understand the expenditure priorities and how funds will be distributed to those priorities. The communication task is to fashion an answer to the key question that every citizen is asking: ‘What is in it for me?’ It would be good if the budget speech addresses this.

 

 

Queen Elizabeth II left a lasting legacy

From left, Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh, Jean Ramjohn-Richards, Queen Elizabeth II and the late Maxwell Richards at a banquet held in the queen’s honour by then president Max Richards, President’s House, Port of Spain, on November 26, 2009.    FILE PHOTO:

The Prime Minister expressed condolences to members of the royal family and the government and people of the United Kingdom and remembered Queen Elizabeth II for her selfless duty to the Commonwealth. Britain’s longest-serving monarch aged 96 died on 8 September at Balmoral Castle in Scotland.

After reigning for 70 years, the queen has left a lasting legacy for the people of the UK and the world. The queen’s life “was marked by her strong sense of duty and dedication.”

TT which gained independence and later became a republic recognises her lasting legacy.

“The Prime Minister recalled the promise that the queen had made at the age of 21 when she pledged her life to the service of her people. That promise was refreshed on her coronation day when she asked for ‘God’s help to make good that vow… I do not regret, or retract, one word of it.’”

“May Her Majesty’s soul Rest In Peace.”

Her Majesty visited Trinidad and Tobago on several occasions, most recently in 2009 to participate in the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting.

 

The world lost a soul of immaculate kindness, strength & courage

Sep 08 2022

In a statement, Opposition UNC Leader Kamla Persad-Bissessar said that “the world has lost a soul of immaculate kindness, strength and courage, which enriched so many for decades.”

“I declare before you all that my whole life, whether it be long or short, shall be devoted to your service.”

“While these were her words as Princess Elizabeth in 1947, they became the life story of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II as she became the longest-serving Monarch of the United Kingdom.

Today as I join the global community in mourning the loss of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, I can truly say that our world has lost a soul of immaculate kindness, strength and courage, which enriched so many for decades.”

The Queen’s life was an inspiring one as she demonstrated that neither youth nor gender would prevent her from undertaking a role with such great responsibilities.

“Her Majesty’s many acts of goodwill throughout our Commonwealth, her words of wisdom throughout our global community and most of all the way she managed the tribulations that faced her life, her family and society were shining examples of courage which offered strength to many. As the first Female Chair in Office of the Commonwealth and first female Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago, I had the esteemed pleasure of meeting Her Majesty on the Commonwealth stage and was greatly enlightened by her humour as well as her great humility, but even more so enriched by her desire to see a better world.”

“Her Majesty lived a life of service to the British people and our Commonwealth to the very end, as this week she appointed the 15th Prime Minister of her reign. For her years of love, kindness, and dedication to the Commonwealth, we will always be grateful. Today, on behalf of the Opposition Members of Parliament, members of the United National Congress and citizens of Trinidad and Tobago, I offer our sincere condolences to the British people in this time of mourning.”

 

British High Commissioner: The Queen loved T&T

Sep 08 2022

British High Commissioner, Harriet Cross said the Queen loved the Caribbean and Trinidad and Tobago and that she had the pleasure of meeting her for the first time, here. Flags at the British High Commission have been lowered. The last interaction with the Queen was when the Defence Force went to London for the 70th anniversary of her reign. and played Abba’s “Dancing Queen.”

 

Engineering solutions – better late than never

CHRIS MAHARAJ AND MARLEEN LORD-LEWIS

Pioneering collaboration to jointly seek solutions to engineering challenges brings together in the national interest two “think tanks” – the National Institute for Higher Education Research Science and Technology (NIHERST) and the Association of Professional Engineers of TT (APETT).

NIHERST is the national leader in STEM education and enables society through science and innovation. APETT was established to promote the highest standards of professional practice and stimulates awareness of technology and the role of the engineer in society. This article focuses on the subject of drainage and is the precursor to a webinar in which discussions from key stakeholders in government, academia and industry will be presented.

We highlight the global context of climate change which impacts the regional and national landscapes and contributes to flooding, which is a major challenge to communities when drainage technology and systems are compromised. Further, we present the technical challenges faced by the agency mandated to manage the relevant infrastructure. The article provides, beyond enforcement mechanisms, two primary interventions that can be deployed at the level of communities whilst building community awareness and buy-in to sustainable solutions.

Our communities are susceptible to the damaging effects of flooding. Several natural and anthropogenic factors contribute to flooding events locally, including community development without improving drainage systems and full consideration of downstream effects, improper disposal of solid waste, lack of maintenance of drains and waterways and increased rainfall intensity. APETT Civil Division recognises the short-term as well as the long-term effects of these factors on the existing stormwater drainage systems. These factors often prove to be the leading contributors to drainage-related issues observed when conducting engineering analyses on the efficiencies of existing drainage systems.

Drainage systems are constructed to ensure that stormwater is transported safely to disposal points, thereby keeping the environment well drained. In our country, non-optimal drainage systems are a societal pain point that have led to flooding as solid waste obstructs the free flow of water that enters these drains, causing water to back up during rainfall. A build-up of solid waste can also obstruct the natural flow of water in rivers and streams.

Extreme weather has also become more frequent and compounds flooding issues. Rain events have become more violent, with intense periods of rainfall that result in flash flooding. Bank erosion due to fast and/or elevated flows in watercourses can also occur.

In seeking to understand the existing infrastructural network of the governmental drainage support systems in the country, we met Hinni Maraj, acting CEO in the Couva/Tabaquite/Talparo Regional Corporation (CTTRC). Maraj indicated that building and development applications are submitted to the Town and County Planning Division of the Ministry of Planning and Development. The division in turn assesses what governmental entities (eg Drainage Division, Highways Division, Fire Service, Water and Sewerage Authority, and county medical officers of health) are required to provide approvals from which overall provisional and final approvals are granted by the regional corporations.

Provisional approvals allow construction of the building or development to begin. Final approvals are granted provided that completion of the building or development abided with what was provisionally approved. Deviations from the initial design will need to be rectified in order to obtain final approval. With continuing infrastructural development, a more holistic approach can be continuously applied where the downstream effects of a development’s drainage works on the surrounding communities are adequately studied.

Enforcement mechanisms that the regional corporation can apply include Section 145 of the Municipal Corporation Act, under which “show cause” or stop notices can be served if there is any obstruction of drains. Sections 69 to 73, including the Public Health Ordinance (specifically the clauses that relate to nuisances such as environmental pollution that impacts watercourses and outfalls), can also be applied where stop notices can be issued to desist from pollution or to stop construction in a watercourse. Legal processes can be followed thereafter if no resolution is obtained.

Pollution of watercourses that result in associated blockages can be minimised through optimal solid waste collection initiatives. CTTRC currently partners with the Solid Waste Management Company (SWMCOL) for curbside pick-up of recyclable items, including plastic bottle waste, in three areas of the regional corporation. CTTRC is also working with SWMCOL on its relaunched anti-littering campaign. These initiatives assist immensely to reduce waste.

NIHERST’s acting vice president of science and technology Ryane Rollock, who also serves as a member of the Environmental Commission, recognises that adaptation measures like sustainable drainage systems can help address flooding issues.

Sustainable drainage includes long-term environmental and social factors in decisions about drainage. Sustainable drainage systems are intended to regulate surface water runoff close to where it falls and simulate natural drainage as closely as possible. They provide opportunities to reduce the causes and impacts of flooding, remove pollutants from urban runoff at source and combine water management with recreation and wildlife. They also help to enhance water quality while protecting natural flow regimes in watercourses.

In a green engineering solution, vetiver grass is used as a green infrastructure tool to improve soil quality and drainage to reduce surface water runoff, thus preventing landslips and flooding due to rain events.

Rainwater harvesting systems can be another localised consideration to be included as part of an overall sustainable drainage solution. This involves collecting water from surfaces on which rain falls, and subsequently storing this water for later use. By incorporating them into national sustainability plans, these systems can be used to collect and store water from these extreme rainfall events, caused by climate change, that may contribute to the disastrous flooding experienced in our country. Normally water is collected from the roofs of buildings and stored in rainwater tanks or underground cisterns. APETT Mechanical Division chair Shalini Persad indicated that in water efficient sustainable building designs, the harvested water is commonly used for landscape irrigation and as a water supply for toilet fixtures.

NIHERST’s Rainwater Harvesting Project is but one of the environmental projects that is a sustainable solution to help address flooding. The project was primarily envisaged to address water-scarcity issues, but it also has the potential to help address some of the impacts of poor drainage systems locally by controlling and regulating the surface water runoff that typically leads to flooding, and storing that water for later use.

2022 marked the Science Centennial of the Imperial College of Tropical Agriculture, the first scientific institution in the West Indies. It became the founding college of UWI in 1960 and the Faculty of Agriculture in 1962 when the Faculty of Engineering opened. Over 6 decades Engineers failed to promote rain harvesting, which can supply water to farmers in the dry season and prevent flooding which causes massive damage to homes, companies, lands andl livelihoods, especially in rural districts. The incompetent office for disaster fails to coordinate rescue and relief efforts with the military and sometimes refuses to declare a state of emergency to access international aid from Red Cross and other humanitarian organisations. ECO donated 3 dinghies to local corporations to supply water and food for stranded householders the last major flood.

Now that the enrgy industry has recovered due to high market prices for oil and gas, the state must fund rainwater harvesting, build irrigation channels, clear streams and maintain drainage infratructure.

 

 

Devaluation

Economist Dr Dave Seerattan said the government was wise in holding firm with current foreign exchange rates, adding that the country would have been worse off if it adjusted the value of the TT dollar, especially in the middle of the covid19 pandemic.

Seerattan was speaking at the Ministry of Finance’s Spotlight on the Economy, at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Port of Spain on Friday. He described government’s decision not to adjust the exchange rate as a critical one to the recovery of TT’s economy.

“Not utilising the exchange rate as the main mechanism for driving the stabilisation effort is hugely important,” Seerattan said.

“You don’t implement significant changes in the Foreign Exchange market in the midst of a crisis. Agents in the market will run for the hills.

“Imagine if we were in a regime where we had a more flexible approach to the exchange rate and covid19 struck. The minister would not only have to be dealing with recovery, but he would have to worry every Monday morning about what agents in the foreign exchange market would be doing to cause chaos in the market.”

He said the decision to use the exchange rates to anchor the expectation on prices was essential to the success of the government’s plans for recovery. He said adjusting the exchange rate was not only a bad move from an economic standpoint but from the perspective of one who understands how agents in the market operate and incentive structures for agents, it was also bad strategy.

“All you have to do is look north to Jamaica, or in Guyana and Suriname in terms of countries who attempted to use the foreign exchange as a major tool in their adjustment exercises.”

He said Jamaica, for example, had not been able to recover from the fallout of its foreign exchange adjustments for the past 20 years.

“People who talk about changing the exchange rate willy nilly either don’t know what they are talking about or have ulterior motives.”

Seerattan said TT was able to manage the shocks and volatility that came with multiple financial global crises that spanned over the past ten to 12 years, starting in 2007 when the US housing bubble burst, causing a chain reaction which led to a global recession.

Seerattan said that, from as late as 2018, countries in Europe were still struggling with legacy issues coming out of that crisis.

“Many countries in the Caribbean had their sovereign debt levels much higher because they had to deal with the global fallout from the crisis. It was only between 2017 to 2018 that the global economy began to have growth that was familiar to pre-crisis levels.”

Even as the world was recovering from the crisis, another one in the form of covid19 was looming. The covid19 pandemic also shuttered the world, causing businesses worldwide – especially those that depended heavily on face-to-face interactions – to close its doors.

Seerattan said it was through the assistance of multi-lateral institutions that many Caribbean countries were able to manage the economic crisis spurred on by covid19, but TT was more fortunate as it had significant buffers in the form of the Heritage Stabilisation Fund and foreign exchange reserves.

“Even though we had a torrid time over the past two years we could look at our neighbours and see people who would be glad in our shoes. We must always contextualise where we are and the things that make your particular situation better, whenever we are in a crisis.”

Seerattan said, while global economies are facing recovery with global growth expected to slow to 3.2 per cent this year as compared to 6.1 per cent in 2021, the resurgence of variants of covid19, the Russian/Ukrainian war and structural issues in Europe could likely cause more challenging times ahead with some IMF growth scenarios predicting a 2.6 fall in growth if certain risks come to pass, such as the extension of the Russian/Ukrainian war.

Seerattan advised that government now look to enforce tax collection regimes as it had already done all it could to reduce expenditure. Citing the IMF’s records Seerattan said there was an estimated $7 billion in uncollected taxes.

“My own view is that we have cut expenditure very effectively down to its minimum that is needed for a modern economy such as TT,” he said.

“Any further adjustment has to happen on the revenue side. Things like the Revenue Authority and property tax and those kind of things are actually what government would need to focus on in the future.

“If everyone paid their taxes and we had an efficient tax collection system in place we would probably have moved a long way to eliminating deficits without necessarily raising taxes or cutting expenditure further.

 

 

USAID

Sep 13 2022

The United States Agency for International Development signed a Memorandum of Understanding with T&T Chamber of Commerce to assist in strengthening the small medium enterprise sector.
The MoU will address key development challenges with areas of interest in crime and security, inclusive of economic growth for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), mitigating the effects of climate change, health, COVID-19 response and other areas. The MOU’s agreement is in place for five years.

U S Embassy Charge D’Affairs Shante Moore noted the economy was severely impacted by recent events.

“COVID-19 has taken a heavy toll on Trinidad and Tobago’s economy, as the pandemic has on all economies around the world. Russia’s unprovoked, unjustified war in Ukraine has added to this hardship. This MOU between USAID and the Chamber of Industry and Commerce signifies a shared commitment to seeking tangible solutions to the challenges.”
USAID regional representative Clinton White. said,

“What we are hoping to do is promote more access to financing and looking at seeking ways to provide more support and capacity building for businesses by looking at how we can, you know better and provide support, an enabling environment and the ease of doing business, so all of these are various factors of the MOU that we put together and signed.”

Chamber President Charles Pashley said the objective of the various projects to be exercised under the agreement is aimed toward enhancing competitiveness, strengthening the capabilities of small and micro enterprises to access financing and enabling the pursuit of digital transformation and green technologies. While the programmes seemed to primarily appeal to SMEs, it had a wider scope.

“It doesn’t preclude the larger organisation so the largest that need financial support, but also guidance by way of a green agenda can also access the support programmes as offered by USAID.”

This paves the way for USA to acquire Caricom as Unincorporated Territory to guarantee security of food, fuel and protection from war-mpngering totalitarian tyrants.

 

 

Managing our Budget expectations

3 sep

The Minister of Finance yesterday announced September 26 as Budget Day, at which time the 2022/2023 fiscal package will be presented.

The budget usually evokes great expectations, with people from all walks of life eager to hear what it will bring and the impact the measures will have on their lives and livelihoods.

Among those keenly looking on are public sector workers and the trade unions that represent them. They have been hoping the Government’s 4 per cent wage increase offer will be improved, despite talks with the Chief Personnel Offer indicating otherwise.

Already one union – the Amalgamated Workers’ Union – has accepted the 4 per cent, a decision for which its president, Michael Prentice, has been attacked by his comrades. The others, like the Trinidad and Tobago Unified Teacher’s Association, which was presented with eight per cent, continue to hold out for higher offers and even signalled their intention to show their rebuff in a noticeable way.

However, during yesterday’s Spotlight on the Economy, Minister Colm Imbert revealed that if the Government attempts to submit to these demands – like the Public Services Association’s request for a 19 per cent increase – it will cost the State $15.8 billion in back pay alone, while the additional annual cost to the wage budget will stand at $1.8 billion.

The Minister added if that was extended to the wider State sector, arrears would total $30.3 billion and the annual wage bill would be $3.4 billion. This, Minister Imbert explained, is not feasible.

But there must be room for compromise and finding a common ground for all concerned.

The Finance Minister also suggested the Government could not sustain the current fuel subsidy if international oil prices remain at the current high levels and spoke about the strain subsidising WASA and T&TEC was putting on the State’s coffers.

Despite all this, the Minister mentioned that there is some good news with regard to the country’s international reserves and improving credit rating.

Nevertheless, citizens should be realistic with all they are clamouring for, as collectively, we can ill-afford another economic slowdown.

On the other hand, a serious effort must be made in the Budget to ensure citizens can access food items, given the numerous increases faced over the last year and a half.

The removal of Value Added Tax in the 2021/2022 budget, though applauded, was quickly countered by several price hikes, particularly on essential items.

Consumers thus remain hard-pressed to purchase basic food items.

Another area of distress for citizens remains the condition of the road infrastructure in many parts of the country.

Minister of Works Rohan Sinanan previously revealed his ministry does not have money to repair all the nation’s roads in response to protests, including some which were politically motivated. Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley’s recent statement, however, suggest there may be some relief ahead on this. But it does diminish the predicament and inconvenience being experienced by residents in communities who deserve better roads.

There is no doubt, that the list could go on and on.

Whatever comes in the suite of measures ahead, while it is anticipated the basic necessities of the citizenry would be met, great expectations should be managed.

 

 

$51b revenue this year

ERMANENT Secretary in the Ministry of Finance Suzette Taylor-Lee Chee said Government expects to receive approximately $51 billion in revenue by the end of the current fiscal year.

She was addressing a spotlight on finance hosted by the ministry at the Hyatt Regency Hotel in Port of Spain on Friday.

Referring to the ministry’s financial estimates as of July 5, Lee Chee said there is room for optimism after ten months of actual revenue collection.

“We are confident that revenue this year will be around $51.15 billion. This is about $8 billion more than budgeted. This increased revenue is expected to come almost exclusively from taxes on income and profits, with an additional $4.2 billion from oil companies and $3.8 billion from other companies.”

While the ministry budgeted for revenue from income-tax collection to be approximately $6.25 billion, Lee Chee said this figure may now be $5.99 billion.

“This we attribute to the lingering effects of the covid19 pandemic on employment.”

The projected increased revenue, she continued, will compensate for this shortfall in revenue from individual income tax.

On Value Added Tax (VAT) refunds, Lee Chee said, “We expect to collect $5.8 billion in VAT refunds by the end of the year, which is significantly lower than the $7.2 billion which we expected at the start of the year.”

She attributed this to the fact that Government accelerated the payout of VAT refunds during the year as revenue improved.

Lee Chee said owing to current global energy prices, royalties (from oil and gas companies) are anticipated to exceed the budgeted target by about $500 million.

After noting that oil and gas prices have been volatile in the 2007-2022 period, Lee Chee said, “This year we expect that revenues from oil and gas would comprise about 36 per cent of our revenue, or $18.5 billion.”

She added that within the last 15 years, TT had last recorded a fiscal surplus in 2007-2008, when oil and gas prices at that time were approximately US$107 per barrel and US$9.00 per mmbtu respectively.

While Government has estimated its expenditure for this fiscal year at approximately $55.819 billion, Lee Chee said that figure may be lower.

She reminded her audience that last October the original estimate for expenditure in fiscal 2021/2022 was $52.4 billion, and Finance Minister Colm Imbert adjusted that figure to $55.819 billion when he presented the mid-year review in May.

Lee Chee said the ministry estimated that with 11 months of the fiscal year completed, actual expenditure may be approximately $53 billion.

This was attributed to prudent uses of that funding, such as moving unutilised balances under the Infrastructure Development Fund from some projects to others that have more momentum and require additional funding

She said, “These projects are mainly road infrastructure projects under the Ministry of Works and Transport.”

Lee Chee estimated that 54 per cent of the expenditure fell under transfers and subsidies, covering matters such as funding for the Tobago House of Assembly, the fuel subsidy and covid19 food-support initiatives.

She said the ministry is optimistic of ending the fiscal year with a deficit of $3.7 billion, as opposed to a projected $9 billion deficit.

The deficit will be financed by approximately $790 million from foreign loans from multilateral sources such as the Andean Development Bank (CAF.)

Lee Chee added, “The remaining balance of the deficit will be met from local sources.”

 

 

Fuel subsidy: spend wisely

THE Prime Minister said the country must seize the moment to make its best possible use of extra energy revenues now being earned at a time of high global oil and natural gas prices, in contrast to the Government having spent $35 billion on the fuel subsidy over a number of years.

He was replying to questions at the Spotlight on the economy 2022 on Friday at the Hyatt Regency Hotel, Port of Spain, minutes after Finance Minister Colm Imbert said the Government was contemplating shifting the current $2 billion annual fuel subsidy to a cap of $1 billion saying, “The consequences to that will be inevitable.”

Dr Rowley said, “Heavily subsidised fuel consumption is not the best response to the changed circumstances.” Some Caribbean territories enjoy no fuel subsidy.

“So to encourage people to believe that it doesn’t matter what is happening anywhere in the world or anywhere in the business local or foreign, that subsidised fuel with no attempt to respond – by reducing the consumption, being more efficient, being concerned about the price of fuel – is not a serious encouragement.

“What we are trying to do is make the most of the resources we have available and, as I said earlier on, if one looks back historically, and you’ll see we have spent $30 billion odd on the fuel subsidy, you can only ask yourself a question: Had that policy not been so, what could we have better done developing this country with some of that $35 billion?”

Rowley asked aloud whether a mentality of an entitlement to cheap fuel ought to be encouraged, but opined that the population must carry some of this burden.

He said he did not think the fuel price would stay high.

The PM later reiterated that TT needed to make the best use of its finite resources and took after its people.

“Make the best use now of what is coming to us now.”

Asked about procurement legislation, he said Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness had recently told him that those laws in that country have worked well at an upper level, but at the lower level were linked to delays and increased costs.

“This piece of legislation holds out some promise but it is not a panacea.”

He urged the populace to go forward with confidence and “boundless faith in our destiny.”

In his opening remarks he said the Government “has had to do more with less.”

He assured the TT economy was not collapsing, in contrast to past “experts” who had predicted its demise.

Rowley reckoned the Government would have to provide some funding to help pupils who had fallen in schools during pandemic lockdowns, noting a 3-13 per cent decline among US children.

 

 

Asphalt plant burns

 A fire at Junior Sammy Group of Companies Ltd’s (JUSAMCO) asphalt plant has caused millions of dollars’ worth of damage.

Owner Junior Sammy gave the estimate when he visited the site at Cedar Hill Road mid-morning on Friday.

Sammy praised his workers as well as the fire officers who promptly responded and worked together to contain the flames when the fire broke out at around 11 am..

He said quick-thinking workers dumped loads of sand near the plant to prevent the flames from spreading and also poured water on the plant.

“It could have been worse. The sand saved it. All those loads of sand you are seeing were not there before.

“Thank God no one was injured. I got a call and came here.

“This plant supplies asphalt for the whole of the south,” Sammy said.

There were unconfirmed reports that a worker complained of chest pains and was taken to the San Fernando General Hospital.

Savonetta and Mon Repos fire (south headquarters) officers responded to the fire.

Assistant Chief (south) Ansar Ali said officers from the two stations brought the fire under control “in about 20-25 minutes.”

The cause is yet to be determined.

“We have to do a full investigation, a proper assessment to find out what caused the fire.”

Ali said everyone “did excellent work to bring the fire under control in such a short space of time. I highly commend my fire officers.”

 

 

T&T tipping point says TTCSI president

Thu Sep 01 2022

Short term solutions will not reap long-term rewards for T&T nor serve the best interest of citizens, says President of the T&T Coalition of Services Industries (TTCSI) Mark Edghill.

In his Independence Day message, Edghill said there were times of great prosperity and development over the past six decades and also times of great trials, hardships and sacrifice.

However, he added T&T now stands at a tipping-point, having just come through the COVID-19 pandemic.

“At this critical moment in our country’s history, our people must once again marshal all of their resources, skills, talents and ingenuity to chart the best possible future for themselves and the nation, notwithstanding the many challenges such as crime and the economy, in addition to what many are predicting could turn out to be a volatile global situation,” Edghill advised.

He noted over the last 60 years, T&T has grown and developed economically, driven by oil production, by natural gas and petrochemicals which are subjected to the effects of external economic shocks.

“However, the next 60 years of economic growth will see us as a necessity; seriously pursue and capitalise on economic diversification as global trends and market forces indicate, to move away from fossil fuels.

“It would require we look internally once more to the skills, talents and ingenuity that reside in our most precious resource—our human resource, and specifically, our entrepreneurs,” Edghill said.

He added companies in services sector which embarked on the Gateway to Trade (G2T) Export Accelerator Programme are the vanguard of this new push, leading the way in the country’s economic diversification thrust and overall renewal.

According to Edghill regardless of their size—whether a one-person operation, or a 600-employee strong company—these entrepreneurs know what independence is and what it takes to achieve it.

He said the oldest firm to graduate from the G2T Programme began operations in 1956, a few years before T&T became independent, while the youngest began in 2021.

“Like all entrepreneurs, the ones behind these firms began with a dream of financial independence and to contribute to economic growth, and used their skills, talents, ingenuity and resources to establish their businesses.

“Now, at this tipping point in our country’s economic history, they have levelled-up to take T&T’s services sector onto the global stage,” Edghill added.

He said the TTCSI remains determined to ensure the future of the services sector is “diamond bright.”

 

TTMA welcomes trade complaints MOU with Jamaica

Thu Sep 01 2022

SHIRLEY BAHADUR

The T&T Manufacturers’ Association (TTMA) has said it applauds the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on trade complaints between T&T and Jamaica.

This is a landmark that will deepen and strengthen existing trade relations, the TTMA said in a statement.

“The TTMA fully supports this initiative as it will further develop the Caricom Single Market and Economy. It will also assist in the removal of non-trade barriers and restrictions and continue to develop each country’s economy,” the TTMA explained.

According to the organisation recently, both countries faced many trade-related challenges, especially those originating in the extra regional arena which has curtailed the free flow of trade.

It said solidifying domestic relations, such as this MOU is therefore, timely.

TTMA added it looks forward to the agreement establishing a Trade Complaints Mechanism to provide transparent communications in addressing concerns.

“The MOU resonates with TTMA’s lobbying efforts over years where for example, the association established a ‘Tradedesk’ to resolve issues between the two countries and hosted trade missions to Jamaica.

“Reciprocally, Jamaica has partnered in the TTMA’s Trade and Investment Convention (TIC), showcasing its goods and services to buyers and participants from T&T and the wider world,” the TTMA explained.

It also noted this country and Jamaica are each other’s major trading partner within Caricom and efforts must ensure trading opportunities for both countries are not only sustained but continue to grow.

“Significant trade between both countries takes place from several industries including food and beverage, construction, printing, packaging and the chemical sectors.

“Additionally, investment in key sectors is also significant in both countries especially in finance, insurance, the fast-moving consumer related sectors,” the TTMA added.

It said its commitment is underscored by a proposed trade mission to Jamaica cared from November 20 to 25.

Among the objectives are building on the commitments of both governments to improve bilateral relations, seeking raw material suppliers from Jamaica and enhancing trading relations and opportunities for the private sector from both counties.

 

 

Creative solution

Sep 14 2022

On February 24,media reported that   ‘Atlantic LNG Train 1 is dead’   and the first LNG train would be mothballed. The government abandoned any hope of salvaging Atlantic LNG Train 1 and signed an agreement with Shell, the National Gas Company and bpTT to unitise trains two, three and four into a single train. The Government had announced the plan to have a single LNG train facility and that it had signed a Heads of Agreement (HOA) with the multinationals and the state-owned company.

The HOA shows that the Government has agreed to the three-train facility. In the HOA, the Government identified one of its main objectives as being, “the sustained operation of the unitised facility as a three-train facility.”

T&T has four LNG trains. Chinese investors in Train 1 are out and NGC’s shareholding in the restructured entity will not be affected by the closure of Train 1. bpTT and Shell, the two major shareholders in Atlantic LNG. confirmed this to the NGC.

The Ministry of Energy said, “The Atlantic LNG facility comprises four (4) LNG Trains, each with different shareholder structures and commercial arrangements. It was agreed that the Atlantic LNG facilities would be managed more efficiently if brought under the framework of a single ownership structure.” This gave impression that the restructuring involved all four trains when it knew this was not on the table …

The HOA is effectively the final nail in the Train 1 saga, which has seen more than a quarter billion dollars wasted by the NGC in a failed attempt to revive the facility. Train 1 has been shut now for more than a year and the NGC’s effort resulted in directors of the company seeking to be protected from being held liable for the losses by seeking an indemnity from corporation sole for loss of the public funds.

The Prime Minister and the Minister of Energy Stuart Young, have consistently said Train 1 is not yet dead and was subject to negotiations. The HOA shows that Rowley and Young are aware that Train 1 is no more.

This means that the country has lost a quarter of its LNG capacity and will now have to live in the long term with lower LNG exports, even though the returns per molecule of natural gas could be better depending on the outcome of the final negotiations.

The Prime Minister, flanked by Energy Minister Stuart Young, announced what the country knew for months and which the Government refused to confirm – that the gas was simply not available for Train 1 and as a result, it has to be shut down.

Rowley told media “We have four LNG plants, Train 1, which is the oldest one, came to the end of its contract life recently and has been shut down, mothballed, because there isn’t enough gas to run four trains. That leaves us with three trains.”

The Prime Minister finally admitted what is the state of play. His reluctance to do so in February 2022 was a concern that it would compound how poor the decision of the Board and Management of the National Gas Company was, to throw away a quarter billion dollars behind a scheme to restart Train 1, betting that the petrochemical producers would not want access to their contracted quantities of gas, and somehow imagining that the depressed petrochemical market of early 2021 would remain so for a long time.

The risky venture could have been predicted, the NGC and taxpayers lost a quarter billion dollars; it simply went down the drain. No one is held to account, the Prime Minister defended the corrupt board and management of the NGC, those who opposed the scheme were removed from the board and the country moved on because as the PM himself lamented, many people do not keep a close eye on what is happening in the energy sector. The regime delayed telling the truth for months and even in doing so, it is said in a way that the media could have easily missed the significance.

What was not missed is the reality of crisis and the impact of the inertia of this Government.   The Minister of Energy and the Minister of Finance led the charge to attack the media but the truth always comes to the fore and the PM has seen the moment of reckoning is here.

Government must trust its citizens to dialogue on issues, at times accepting that it does not know it all, to understand that advice from any quarter should be considered.

No one challenges the regime’s right to govern but it will do well to level with the public and not hide behind the notion that it knows all because it is seized with information that no one else has. That is only good for self-gratification and arrogant governance. A government and a society willing to accept ideas and interests, even when they are at variance with its own world view is the only way we will make T&T stronger.

The battle has been joined and Government cannot see opponents as enemies, or that only the views of supporters should be considered. What it must always put first is T&T’s interest to escape disaster..

 

 

Natural gas

Sep 14 2022

Prime Minister Dr Keith Rowley raised the alarm bells, indicating that without gas production from new fields, the crisis could severely impact citizens standard of living. Rowley said the government has been working hard to increase natural gas production which had fallen to an average of 2.9 billion standard cubic feet per day (bcf/d), down from a high of 4.2 bcf/d.

The Ministry of Energy place the natural gas production figures at 2.5 bcf/d and not the 2.9 claimed by the Prime Minister. He felt it necessary to head to Europe and meet Shell, BP and Proman to push the interest of T&T.

Former Energy Minister Kevin Ramnarine, under whose leadership the country offered the last successful bid round, eight years ago, declared that the most fundamental economic issue is natural gas production.

Ramnarine said natural gas production is literally the foundation of our economy and noted that in 2014 to 2021, natural gas production declined by 1.49 billion cubic feet per day.

“Most of that decline ( two thirds) happened in the years 2020 and 2021. The effects of this decline are a 20% reduction in real GDP from 2014 to 2021 and a 29% reduction in energy sector real GDP for the same period. In 2022 and 2023 we will see some marginal improvements in natural gas production but T&T will still struggle to get above 3.0 billion cubic feet per day. This level of natural gas production is still insufficient to meet the demands of the plants in the country. Post 2023, the decline will set in again.”

The Prime Minister seems to be alerted to the precipice ahead, come 2026 to 2028.

Ramnarine said, “If deepwater gas production is not realised in 2028 or thereabouts we are in trouble. A bad situation will become a lot worse. I also don’t think we should hang our economic coat on Venezuelan gas. The sanctions are still there despite the optimism of some. If all the sanctions were lifted tomorrow, it will take years before natural gas from Venezuela flows to T&T.”

Ramnarine said to increase natural gas production T&T needs to focus on four things. Firstly, we need to overhaul the fiscal regime. This was promised in the last budget but nothing has happened.

“I expect some fluffy statement about it on budget day. The fiscal regime and in particular Mr Imbert’s royalty regime of 2017 have failed the country and have been a major factor in the fall in natural gas production. We went after a larger slice of a shrinking pie. The result of the 2018/2019 shallow water bid round should have been a wake up call to the Government that their approach to the fiscal regime does not work,” Ramnarine told the BG.

His view that there is a need to reform the fiscal regime is in keeping with a call from the Energy Chamber which insisted government should act now to reform the fiscal regime.

The Energy Chamber said it “strongly encourages the Government to avoid any further delay in reforming the upstream fiscal terms in Trinidad & Tobago. The time to act is now.”

It added that with the continued push for net-zero by 2050, the window for investment in gas and especially in crude oil production is narrowing every day. Across the world, oil and gas companies remained very disciplined in allocating capital to upstream investments even with the current high global oil prices.

When oil and gas companies are assessing investments they do not base their decisions on today’s oil and gas prices, but rather on the future long-term projected prices. Companies want to make sure the investment makes sense at prices under US$50 per barrel as well as at prices over US$100 per barrel.

The Chamber’s stated, “Unfortunately, in Trinidad & Tobago the structure of the upstream fiscal regime, especially for oil, means that it is extremely difficult to be profitable after-tax once prices are in the US$ 50 range. This is primarily because of the way in which royalties (on oil and gas) and supplemental petroleum tax (on oil) are calculated. While this does not impact investment in the acreage under production sharing contracts, it does impact potential investments in acreage under the Exploration & Production (E&P) licensing regime.”

Ramnarine said the second thing government needs to do is to commercialise deepwater gas.

“The Government needs to sit with Woodside (formerly BHP) and work with them to make the Calypso project a commercial and engineering reality. They also need to get Woodside to bring that gas to market earlier by two years.”

The country needs more natural gas producers like the DeNovos and more Touchstones , small companies that have the appetite for the small pools of natural gas. For Ramnarine another factor is the ease of doing business. He said the ease of doing business is suffocating investment in the energy sector and delaying projects that should be producing natural gas.
The Government needs to make it easier for companies to get approvals and not be held hostage by ministries, some public servants and statutory agencies

The idea of developing small pools of gas is something that Energy expert Anthony Paul has long been preaching. Paul said that we need to remember the “Creaming Curve” concept that says there is as much oil and gas in a basin in small fields as there is in large fields. He explained that large fields get developed first, because they can pay for the required development infrastructure and support system.

Smaller fields get developed late because they can piggy-back on the installed base. New plants require a long-term, secure gas supply to get financing. Once they’ve passed their investment pay-back phase, they can survive on shorter term or lower volume gas supply contracts, which is all small fields can offer.

Paul advised that seismic and well data be removed from under the indefinite confidentiality cover that Heritage and BP have without using it effectively. He urged the government to enforce relinquishment clauses for under-explored or un-developed acreage from BPTT.

“Add to that. a transparent process for fixing gas prices from producers and open access to infrastructure (pipelines and plants, including LNG), all the small fields that BPTT isn’t interested in (because they don’t qualify for funding within their rich global portfolio) will have a huge market to smaller, lower cost operators, like EOG. Keep in mind that BP and Shell have recently stated that T&T is not in their long term growth strategy. PM may believe that he has convinced them otherwise, but all he would have walked away with are promises, not commitments. We seem not to know the difference.You must know that under the current arrangements, only the shareholders in ALNG have the right to off-take liquids. So no other gas producer can benefit from the downstream LNG value-chain.“

 

Truth on holiday

Ramesh Deosaran. 4 September

What is formally said at celebrations like Eid, Divali, Emancipation, Arrival Day, Independence Day anniversaries does not really reflect the surrounding realities. Last week, I heard the President, the Prime Minister and the Opposition Leader.

The differences in their speech content and perspective suggest the story – “beauty lies in the eyes of the beholder.”

Of course, it is not as simple as that, for several reasons.

President Paula-Mae Weekes said: “From our present vantage point, the initial impression of the immediate landscape might be one of a wilderness, given the increasingly brazen criminality, ugly divisive politics, rampant unemployment, distressing reports of child abuse and troubling pockets of poverty.”

Note the cautionary but obligatory words, “might be.” The question of who is constitutionally and largely responsible for treating with these conditions gained no mention. Not on such an occasion.

“Political correctness, being diplomatic and measured,” while appearing “civilised” and culturally valued, often obscure the truth. Now, given opinion polls, media reports, editorials, and numerous citizens’ complaints, the President’s observations are understandably restrained.

Notwithstanding, her words will be interpreted differently according to political party membership. “The ugly, divisive politics” she warned about.

She further noted that at times of national celebrations, “We manage, if only temporarily, to put aside our differences of politics, faith, ethnicity and economic bracket to fully embrace our unique and special identity as Trinbagonians.”

Not really so. In fact, media reports from many citizens of various colours and faith use such occasions to highlight their feelings of relative deprivation, of “political or geographical discrimination” and the long list of identity and physical hardships.

People are still “hurting,” Madam President. Such celebrations unfortunately do not cure the hurt. Rather, they ironically help accentuate the lingering differences. In fact, the sociology of such national celebrations helps expose the divisions.

The bold truth at such occasions is conveniently put aside for political correctness and saving one’s mobility chances. It is “high office” obligation, not really “lying,” but trying to give hope.

The Prime Minister took a different evangelical perspective, one of political necessity. Now into his seventh year as prime minister, he asked citizens to ignore “the perpetual naysayers,” look at the troubles of other countries, use the celebration as a time to “take a look at ourselves, for some introspection.”

He spoke of “brotherhood” and his “citizens’ agenda” – “the rising crime surge as a national emergency requiring action from all stakeholders, the effectiveness of our national school curriculum, continuous review of our social welfare programmes…and placing family life under our national spotlight.”

Ok, but led by whom?

With surprising humility, the PM asked citizens to quiet down, be tolerant and “have a discipline to remove our personal, selfish interests for the good of TT.” He added: “This is not only about party politics but building a nation.”

Not only about party politics? Truth jumped through the window here. The entire running of government is about “party politics” – “ugly, divisive politics.”

Looks like the President knows more about country than the PM.

Around all this speech-making, it is becoming increasingly obvious that rather than parliament being for the people’s interest, it is the judiciary and media that our people are increasingly turning to for protection and social justice. As evidenced by several court decisions, government bureaucracy has become too unfair, arbitrary and oppressive.

This is a matter worthy of the PM’s serious attention. Too many poor people have to fight expensively for justice against advantage by government bureaucracy. Ask Minister of Local Government Faris Al-Rawi.

As constitutional watchdog, Opposition Leader, Ms Kamla Persad-Bissessar recalled: “The UNC has done more to help make the lives of citizens better in our 11 years of government than the PNM in its 50 years.”

She claimed UNC credit for the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund, that every child got a sound education, for “championing” internal self-government for Tobago, and reducing crime, improving roads, water courses, drains, etc. She sought to establish an “alternative truth.”

The government will respond and the public will judge. In Machiavellian politics, by popular demand few things carry permanent truths,

 

 

President Paula-Mae Weekes at royal funeral

19 September

President Paula-Mae Weekes told Sky News she may shed a tear for Queen Elizabeth II at her State funeral today and predicted under King Charles III’s reign that more Commonwealth countries will give up the monarch as Head of State.

“There is a feeling now after all these years that the Sovereign should really be the people and to have a Sovereign from a country that is far removed not only geographically but culturally might not necessarily be the best thing at this time of the nation’s development so I think that perhaps the process will begin speeding up in various territories.”

Since most members joined the Commonwealth voluntarily to access British aid, departures will release public funds to benefit indigenous Britons, now challenged by pandemic, war and rising coasts of food and fuel. Caricom aid-addicts inherited abundant resources, amenities and facilities and may feel confident to manage their territories, having benefited from imperial skills, knowledge and culture. New republics are welcome to risk their future under totalitarian tyrants. Independence allowed immoral power-mad oligarchs to swindle British citizens of UK their passports, oppress and murder them, driven by racial bigotry and envy.

 

U.W.I Welcome Ceremony for Students

Sep 17 2022

Members of the Matriculating Class of 2022 comprising first-year students of The UWI St. Augustine filled the audience in their traditional black and white outfits

Professor Rose-Marie Belle Antoine, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Campus Principal, The UWI St. Augustine Campus addressed the audience at The UWI St. Augustine Campus’ 2022 Matriculation and Welcome Ceremony on Thursday, September 15th, 2022.

Dr Dawn-Marie De Four-Gill, Campus Registrar, and Assistant Registrar, Ms. Simone Roberts. witnessed Ms. Solange Joseph , a first year Faculty of Law student, and graduate of the St. Augustine Girls High School signing the Matriculation Register

First-year students posed with “Peli” the Pelican, the official mascot of The UWI St. Augustine Campus at the University’s Matriculation and Welcome Ceremony 2022

First Year U.W.I students attended the Matriculation ceremony, to solidify their entrance into the Institution, planting crop seeds and viewing performances by U.W.I staff …

“As newly minted members of the St. Augustine Campus and the Student’s Guild, you are expected to take your civic responsibility seriously. Become involved and invested in your community – here and/or where you live. Always remember the adage, to whom much is given, much is expected.”

Professor Rose-Marie Belle Antoine, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Campus Principal of the St. Augustine Campus of The University of the West Indies (UWI), so cautioned first-year students of the St. Augustine Campus’ 2022 Matriculation and Welcome Ceremony on Thursday, September 15, 2022, the first in-person ceremony after a two-year hiatus.

Professor Antoine further advised: “At St. Augustine, you will receive the skill sets and uncover vast reservoirs of excellence to begin the process of applying new knowledge to world problems. Through your total immersion in UWI life, you will make the connections and expand beyond previously insular horizons to see the beauty and grace in each Caribbean territory. As ‘One UWI’, you will continue to be the main unifying force of this One Caribbean, connected by much more than the Caribbean Sea but by an infinite wellspring of vitality that has survived slavery, indentureship, and colonialism”.

Dr Dawn-Marie De Four-Gill, Campus Registrar, told the packed audience that the Matriculation Ceremony is a decades-long tradition where new students are recognised as members of the academic community of The University of the West Indies; they sign the University register and recite the academic vow. They also witness their first Academic Procession with which the ceremony begins.

As part of their First Year Experience activities, hundreds of students planted food crop seeds and placed their names on the vessel containing their planted seed. The Campus Registrar confirmed that the Faculty of Food and Agriculture had already re-planted about 500 of these seeds. The students would be expected to support the growth of these crops by visiting the fields throughout their academic years. In their graduation year, the Campus – with the Faculty of Food and Agriculture – will host a Harvest where students would be invited to share the fruits of their labour.

Speakers included President of the Alumni Association Cheridan Woodruffe and President of the Guild of Students, Kobe Sandy. Students enjoyed performances by The UWI Arts Chorale, under the direction of Mr. Jessel Murray, Head, Department of Creative and Festival Arts and others.

Solange Joseph, a first year Faculty of Law student, and graduate of the St. Augustine Girls High School ceremoniously signed the Matriculation Register on behalf of the incoming cohort, to signify the adherence to the tenets of the Academic Vow and the pursuit of excellence.

The ceremony concluded with the joint lighting of “The Flame of Excellence” by Campus Principal Professor Rose-Marie Belle Antoine and Guild President Kobe Sandy, representing the union of the Campus administration and the student body, in support of new students.

 

 

Matura turtle site gets solar power

Nature Seekers will have, for the first time, a reliable source of solar power at its sea turtle nesting site in Matura after three decades using generators. Nature Seekers monitors and tags endangered leatherback turtles that return annually to nest along the shores of TT.

A small-scale roof-mounted solar (PV) system was installed at its facility under an initiative by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) in partnership with the Global Climate Change Alliance Plus (GCCA+). Formally commissioned, the Nature Seekers solar power system,, is one of 12 being installed in local communities.

Nature Seekers MD Suzan Lakhan-Baptiste said the solar project will save hundreds of dollars in operating costs, as generators are costly to acquire and maintain. Savings would go towards the establishment of a homework centre for Matura as parents are unemployed or single.

“We want to help the kids in our community by introducing technology such as laptops and computers to help them stay connected.”

Planning and Development Minister Pennelope Beckles-Robinson said the initiative signifies a milestone to deploying renewable energy in rural communities.

“This component includes the installation of rooftop-scale solar energy systems in remote communities, as well as RE/EE-conducive policy and legislative framework, and the raising of public awareness in relation to energy efficiency. The overall aim is to assist TT in increasing the availability and use of energy from renewable sources, as well as to increase the efficiency levels in the consumption of energy.”

Peter Cavendish, EU Ambassador to TT stated, “This solar project falls under the EU’s Green Deal, that includes the Global Climate Change Alliance Plus Initiative (GCCA+). For those of you who may not be aware, the EU has set very ambitious goals to combat climate change – to achieve 55 per cent fewer greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, with a longer-term vision to make the bloc climate neutral by 2050. The Green Deal is our roadmap to make those climate ambitions a reality.”

The installations, according to Gerado Noto, UNDP Resident Representative, is being supported with a budget of 2.4 million euros or just over TT$16 million.

“The solar installations are part of a larger project to assist TT in meeting its global commitment under the Paris Agreement. Through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Trinidad and Tobago has agreed to reduce carbon emission by an overall 15 per cent by 2030. The target of the GCCA+ project is to produce 10 per cent or 268,056 kWh/annum of the country’s total electricity output from renewable sources, such as solar.